Bundesliga · resolved market
TSG 1899 Hoffenheim vs. SV Werder Bremen: O/U 1.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x6aebf4ef75be5566031f710e7a161b505c856c733777d70f9aa2a1def2bbd84f
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Underof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Bundesligaevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $24,129
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $26,071
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $24,129 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 36 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Bundesliga is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Bundesliga | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x77c8…bc8cbacked Under | 7c | 8,456$590 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7,865.75 | 43 | 18.6%8 W · 35 L | +1.1wins | +0.02per pick | 16cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4f42…8bbcbacked Over | 47c | 1,072$500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$500 | 44 | 47.7%21 W · 23 L | +2.4wins | +0.05per pick | 42cpaid | +17.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf63a…90e6backed Over | 66c | 800.86$528 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$527.72 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -2.0wins | -0.41per pick | 41cpaid | -100%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xb4d2…ce99backed Under | 12c | 501$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$440.88 | 53 | 45.3%24 W · 29 L | +0.5wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbe3c…a835backed Over | 65c | 500$325 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$325 | 129 | 52.7%68 W · 61 L | +5.2wins | +0.04per pick | 49cpaid | +15.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x29a6…6ea4backed Over | 57c | 438.6$250 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$250 | 39 | 64.1%25 W · 14 L | +2.4wins | +0.06per pick | 58cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0273…1867backed Under | 12c | 400$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$352 | 40 | 25%10 W · 30 L | -1.5wins | -0.04per pick | 29cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x77bc…b91bbacked Under | 56c | 372.04$207 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$165.22 | 1,305 | 40.8%532 W · 773 L | -42.3wins | -0.03per pick | 44cpaid | -21.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf0ca…117abacked Over | 47c | 320.13$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150 | 53 | 49.1%26 W · 27 L | +1.6wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +12.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6832…831fbacked Over | 20c | 300.1$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.56 | 18 | 27.8%5 W · 13 L | -1.1wins | -0.06per pick | 34cpaid | -44.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb5c4…2853backed Under | 4c | 240.4$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$230.4 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +1.2wins | +0.40per pick | 26cpaid | +779.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd218…b5c9backed Over | 19c | 216.25$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.49 | 337 | 37.4%126 W · 211 L | -11.2wins | -0.03per pick | 41cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1650…42f6backed Under | 27c | 187.29$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$136.29 | 39 | 35.9%14 W · 25 L | +0.7wins | +0.02per pick | 34cpaid | +5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2f2b…d743backed Over | 57c | 175.75$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 37 | 45.9%17 W · 20 L | +1.0wins | +0.03per pick | 43cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6562…4e48backed Over | 79c | 168.15$133 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$132.5 | 110 | 65.5%72 W · 38 L | +2.8wins | +0.03per pick | 63cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8374…f183backed Over | 64c | 156.49$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 12 | 83.3%10 W · 2 L | +3.0wins | +0.25per pick | 58cpaid | +42.3%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x29a5…a3c4backed Under | 38c | 148.35$56 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$92.01 | 109 | 56%61 W · 48 L | +3.0wins | +0.03per pick | 53cpaid | +4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa6af…b5efbacked Over | 77c | 130$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100.1 | 61 | 47.5%29 W · 32 L | -8.5wins | -0.14per pick | 62cpaid | -28.6%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x24a3…7c66backed Over | 65c | 118.72$77 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$77 | 8 | 75%6 W · 2 L | +1.4wins | +0.18per pick | 57cpaid | +35.2%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdbd7…6d6cbacked Over | 48c | 100$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48 | 14 | 50%7 W · 7 L | -1.5wins | -0.11per pick | 61cpaid | -25.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffd…7821backed Under | 58c | 86$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.3 | 47 | 51.1%24 W · 23 L | -2.1wins | -0.05per pick | 56cpaid | -17.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd12f…e80dbacked Over | 64c | 78.33$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 34 | 50%17 W · 17 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x03ba…bebabacked Under | 29c | 59.73$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.69 | 74 | 55.4%41 W · 33 L | +4.0wins | +0.05per pick | 50cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6c6e…c234backed Under | 80c | 56.3$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.37 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.20per pick | 80cpaid | +25.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf05b…3c59backed Over | 52c | 55.77$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | -0.9wins | -0.11per pick | 48cpaid | -19.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa203…11bcbacked Under | 57c | 52.08$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.54 | 15 | 46.7%7 W · 8 L | +0.5wins | +0.03per pick | 43cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7fb9…2772backed Over | 53c | 50$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.5 | 17 | 29.4%5 W · 12 L | -3.0wins | -0.17per pick | 47cpaid | -44%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x40d7…47cbbacked Over | 39c | 50$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.45 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.05per pick | 55cpaid | -30.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf497…5ce0backed Over | 68c | 49.99$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.88 | 117 | 44.4%52 W · 65 L | -4.2wins | -0.04per pick | 48cpaid | -11.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4fad…fdc0backed Over | 28c | 42.53$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.09 | 36 | 27.8%10 W · 26 L | +1.8wins | +0.05per pick | 23cpaid | -13.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1a63…fe88backed Over | 29c | 39.98$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.59 | 18 | 61.1%11 W · 7 L | +1.2wins | +0.06per pick | 55cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe941…a496backed Over | 50c | 38.51$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.2 | 73 | 65.8%48 W · 25 L | +8.5wins | +0.12per pick | 54cpaid | +16.7%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x3aa7…303dbacked Under | 73c | 35.28$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.69 | 40 | 70%28 W · 12 L | +4.0wins | +0.10per pick | 60cpaid | +22.1%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xfaa0…441abacked Over | 63c | 25$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.77 | 38 | 47.4%18 W · 20 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x84ad…bfb7backed Under | 56c | 23.04$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.06 | 640 | 43.9%281 W · 359 L | -9.7wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -17.6%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x72ee…a848backed Over | 53c | 20$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.6 | 115 | 56.5%65 W · 50 L | +0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 56cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Bundesliga and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- TSG 1899 Hoffenheim vs. SV Werder Bremen: O/U 1.5this page
- Spread: SV Werder Bremen (-1.5)TSG 1899 Hoffenheim won
- Spread: TSG 1899 Hoffenheim (-1.5)SV Werder Bremen won
- Spread: TSG 1899 Hoffenheim (-2.5)SV Werder Bremen won
- TSG 1899 Hoffenheim vs. SV Werder Bremen: Both Teams to ScoreNo won
- TSG 1899 Hoffenheim vs. SV Werder Bremen: O/U 2.5Under won
- TSG 1899 Hoffenheim vs. SV Werder Bremen: O/U 3.5Under won
- TSG 1899 Hoffenheim vs. SV Werder Bremen: O/U 4.5Under won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.