Bundesliga · resolved market
Spread: TSG 1899 Hoffenheim (-2.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x1be39915093c432bf1368a618b215a50186fa2d4c63e5bb716cca1c2018c4ff9
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- SV Werder Bremenof TSG 1899 Hoffenheim, SV Werder Bremen
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Bundesligaevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $4,844
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $5,213
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $4,844 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 20 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Bundesliga is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Bundesliga | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x0346…52a5backed SV Werder Bremen | 65c | 1,633$1,064 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$568.83 | 283 | 45.2%128 W · 155 L | +6.0wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed TSG 1899 Hoffenheim | 42c | 1,491$620 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$619.95 | 3,284 | 42.6%1,399 W · 1,885 L | -74.0wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -18.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x397e…3d84backed TSG 1899 Hoffenheim | 44c | 495$218 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$218.1 | 446 | 55.4%247 W · 199 L | +22.4wins | +0.05per pick | 50cpaid | +11.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb4d2…ce99backed SV Werder Bremen | 56c | 485$272 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$213.4 | 53 | 45.3%24 W · 29 L | +0.5wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1966…da9ebacked SV Werder Bremen | 55c | 364.91$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$164.91 | 80 | 50%40 W · 40 L | +2.9wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | +7.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x133b…5856backed TSG 1899 Hoffenheim | 63c | 347.34$218 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$217.62 | 45 | 57.8%26 W · 19 L | +2.3wins | +0.05per pick | 53cpaid | +14%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd218…b5c9backed TSG 1899 Hoffenheim | 45c | 304.91$137 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$137.21 | 337 | 37.4%126 W · 211 L | -11.2wins | -0.03per pick | 41cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0c99…0c88backed SV Werder Bremen | 45c | 300$134 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$166 | 206 | 45.6%94 W · 112 L | -3.0wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8f13…daaebacked SV Werder Bremen | 56c | 300$168 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$132 | 73 | 28.8%21 W · 52 L | -3.6wins | -0.05per pick | 34cpaid | -21.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0d2d…7ff5backed TSG 1899 Hoffenheim | 49c | 250$122 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$122 | 84 | 51.2%43 W · 41 L | -1.1wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3b5f…7b99backed SV Werder Bremen | 51c | 200$102 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$98 | 102 | 46.1%47 W · 55 L | +0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x80d8…b703backed SV Werder Bremen | 44c | 200$88 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$112.39 | 146 | 42.5%62 W · 84 L | -7.6wins | -0.05per pick | 48cpaid | -11.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x424e…263bbacked TSG 1899 Hoffenheim | 24c | 199.99$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48 | 287 | 55.1%158 W · 129 L | +12.3wins | +0.04per pick | 51cpaid | +8.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x325f…4511backed SV Werder Bremen | 76c | 148.03$112 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.53 | 531 | 40.7%216 W · 315 L | -13.3wins | -0.03per pick | 43cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1624…bf63backed TSG 1899 Hoffenheim | 57c | 103.97$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.26 | 131 | 39.7%52 W · 79 L | +3.5wins | +0.03per pick | 37cpaid | -28.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7138…8c89backed TSG 1899 Hoffenheim | 24c | 51.32$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.32 | 113 | 38.9%44 W · 69 L | -3.7wins | -0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -9.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3350…9588backed SV Werder Bremen | 57c | 43.86$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.86 | 11 | 81.8%9 W · 2 L | +1.8wins | +0.16per pick | 66cpaid | +29.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x84ad…bfb7backed SV Werder Bremen | 57c | 40$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.32 | 640 | 43.9%281 W · 359 L | -9.7wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -17.6%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5df5…c44cbacked TSG 1899 Hoffenheim | 49c | 33.69$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.6 | 147 | 55.8%82 W · 65 L | +5.9wins | +0.04per pick | 52cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6d44…9f3bbacked SV Werder Bremen | 56c | 20$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.7 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 61cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Bundesliga and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: TSG 1899 Hoffenheim (-2.5)this page
- Spread: SV Werder Bremen (-1.5)TSG 1899 Hoffenheim won
- Spread: TSG 1899 Hoffenheim (-1.5)SV Werder Bremen won
- TSG 1899 Hoffenheim vs. SV Werder Bremen: Both Teams to ScoreNo won
- TSG 1899 Hoffenheim vs. SV Werder Bremen: O/U 1.5Under won
- TSG 1899 Hoffenheim vs. SV Werder Bremen: O/U 2.5Under won
- TSG 1899 Hoffenheim vs. SV Werder Bremen: O/U 3.5Under won
- TSG 1899 Hoffenheim vs. SV Werder Bremen: O/U 4.5Under won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.