Bundesliga · resolved market
Spread: TSG 1899 Hoffenheim (-1.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xeb01c4930294c011d97529e0b91954fb45ae28c99f33c32aeab7bf2b9a1c6c22
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- SV Werder Bremenof TSG 1899 Hoffenheim, SV Werder Bremen
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Bundesligaevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $15,344
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $15,780
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $15,344 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 41 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Bundesliga is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Bundesliga | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x204f…5e14backed SV Werder Bremen | 40c | 10,687$4,327 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6,359.6 | 3,284 | 42.6%1,399 W · 1,885 L | -74.0wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -18.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x44c5…8d45backed TSG 1899 Hoffenheim | 60c | 8,340$5,004 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$5,003.99 | 160 | 45%72 W · 88 L | +5.4wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +9.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x77a3…0e3fbacked TSG 1899 Hoffenheim | 64c | 1,563$1,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,000 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | -2.0wins | -0.24per pick | 49cpaid | -51.7%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x802f…e008backed TSG 1899 Hoffenheim | 43c | 465.12$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 122 | 71.3%87 W · 35 L | +6.1wins | +0.05per pick | 66cpaid | +8.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x054b…afd5backed TSG 1899 Hoffenheim | 44c | 454.55$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 27 | 51.9%14 W · 13 L | +0.6wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +7.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdb83…1e50backed SV Werder Bremen | 43c | 373.72$161 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$212.55 | 264 | 45.5%120 W · 144 L | -2.7wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2a91…c6b1backed SV Werder Bremen | 56c | 363.85$204 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$160.1 | 67 | 61.2%41 W · 26 L | +6.1wins | +0.09per pick | 52cpaid | +22.7%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x7138…8c89backed TSG 1899 Hoffenheim | 43c | 283.97$123 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$123.42 | 113 | 38.9%44 W · 69 L | -3.7wins | -0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -9.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0346…52a5backed TSG 1899 Hoffenheim | 73c | 267.68$195 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$194.92 | 283 | 45.2%128 W · 155 L | +6.0wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x85d8…3cbebacked SV Werder Bremen | 57c | 175.44$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$75.44 | 105 | 54.3%57 W · 48 L | +7.2wins | +0.07per pick | 47cpaid | +16.2%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x12b9…3ec2backed TSG 1899 Hoffenheim | 16c | 154.12$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.66 | 106 | 41.5%44 W · 62 L | +6.2wins | +0.06per pick | 36cpaid | +13.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x806a…62d7backed TSG 1899 Hoffenheim | 45c | 145.56$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65 | 18 | 55.6%10 W · 8 L | +1.4wins | +0.08per pick | 48cpaid | +7.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x325f…4511backed TSG 1899 Hoffenheim | 69c | 145.14$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 531 | 40.7%216 W · 315 L | -13.3wins | -0.03per pick | 43cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xafce…c2f6backed TSG 1899 Hoffenheim | 43c | 140$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60.2 | 16 | 56.3%9 W · 7 L | +0.4wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked SV Werder Bremen | 31c | 130.14$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$89.8 | 2,538 | 39.8%1,009 W · 1,529 L | -8.1wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x424e…263bbacked TSG 1899 Hoffenheim | 44c | 130$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.9 | 287 | 55.1%158 W · 129 L | +12.3wins | +0.04per pick | 51cpaid | +8.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0c99…0c88backed SV Werder Bremen | 22c | 100$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$78 | 206 | 45.6%94 W · 112 L | -3.0wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x80d8…b703backed SV Werder Bremen | 22c | 100$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$78 | 146 | 42.5%62 W · 84 L | -7.6wins | -0.05per pick | 48cpaid | -11.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc7eb…da58backed SV Werder Bremen | 56c | 89.82$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.82 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +0.9wins | +0.31per pick | 69cpaid | +47.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa623…a4febacked SV Werder Bremen | 40c | 87$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.2 | 146 | 52.7%77 W · 69 L | +11.2wins | +0.08per pick | 45cpaid | +11.1%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xc2af…3880backed TSG 1899 Hoffenheim | 60c | 86.97$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.18 | 30 | 33.3%10 W · 20 L | -2.9wins | -0.10per pick | 43cpaid | -40.2%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x84ad…bfb7backed TSG 1899 Hoffenheim | 66c | 72.67$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.19 | 640 | 43.9%281 W · 359 L | -9.7wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -17.6%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb6bf…9ac0backed TSG 1899 Hoffenheim | 70c | 70.98$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 15 | 73.3%11 W · 4 L | +2.4wins | +0.16per pick | 57cpaid | +39.7%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x4a4b…bbcabacked TSG 1899 Hoffenheim | 47c | 70$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.9 | 346 | 55.5%192 W · 154 L | +9.8wins | +0.03per pick | 53cpaid | +4.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4497…d5a3backed TSG 1899 Hoffenheim | 49c | 63.27$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31 | 15 | 20%3 W · 12 L | -2.3wins | -0.16per pick | 36cpaid | -54.4%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x1e3b…e232backed SV Werder Bremen | 56c | 60$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.4 | 202 | 51%103 W · 99 L | -4.3wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5df5…c44cbacked SV Werder Bremen | 41c | 51.17$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.35 | 147 | 55.8%82 W · 65 L | +5.9wins | +0.04per pick | 52cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3a6e…9bc5backed TSG 1899 Hoffenheim | 43c | 46.51$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 54 | 68.5%37 W · 17 L | +2.9wins | +0.05per pick | 63cpaid | +8.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x127a…ca3cbacked TSG 1899 Hoffenheim | 43c | 46.37$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.94 | 50 | 54%27 W · 23 L | -1.0wins | -0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8956…755fbacked TSG 1899 Hoffenheim | 44c | 45.45$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 47 | 40.4%19 W · 28 L | -6.0wins | -0.13per pick | 53cpaid | -24%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x67d2…a008backed TSG 1899 Hoffenheim | 68c | 44.24$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 37 | 59.5%22 W · 15 L | +0.9wins | +0.02per pick | 57cpaid | +14.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcfff…3d0ebacked TSG 1899 Hoffenheim | 28c | 40$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.2 | 20 | 60%12 W · 8 L | +0.6wins | +0.03per pick | 57cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x29a5…a3c4backed TSG 1899 Hoffenheim | 47c | 38.62$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.08 | 109 | 56%61 W · 48 L | +3.0wins | +0.03per pick | 53cpaid | +4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x32cc…68b3backed SV Werder Bremen | 40c | 38.6$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.16 | 213 | 55.4%118 W · 95 L | +8.1wins | +0.04per pick | 52cpaid | +6.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0d2d…7ff5backed SV Werder Bremen | 49c | 34.23$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.57 | 84 | 51.2%43 W · 41 L | -1.1wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf875…256cbacked TSG 1899 Hoffenheim | 44c | 34.09$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 16 | 37.5%6 W · 10 L | -1.6wins | -0.10per pick | 47cpaid | -23.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x05e3…faafbacked TSG 1899 Hoffenheim | 44c | 31.03$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.65 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.44per pick | 44cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2f1a…7c47backed SV Werder Bremen | 57c | 30$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.9 | 64 | 59.4%38 W · 26 L | +2.4wins | +0.04per pick | 56cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5bc6…8f42backed SV Werder Bremen | 40c | 25$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.60per pick | 40cpaid | +150%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x967b…46babacked TSG 1899 Hoffenheim | 58c | 25$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.5 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | -0.8wins | -0.08per pick | 58cpaid | -20.9%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1a63…fe88backed TSG 1899 Hoffenheim | 50c | 20$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 18 | 61.1%11 W · 7 L | +1.2wins | +0.06per pick | 55cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Bundesliga and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: TSG 1899 Hoffenheim (-1.5)this page
- Spread: SV Werder Bremen (-1.5)TSG 1899 Hoffenheim won
- Spread: TSG 1899 Hoffenheim (-2.5)SV Werder Bremen won
- TSG 1899 Hoffenheim vs. SV Werder Bremen: Both Teams to ScoreNo won
- TSG 1899 Hoffenheim vs. SV Werder Bremen: O/U 1.5Under won
- TSG 1899 Hoffenheim vs. SV Werder Bremen: O/U 2.5Under won
- TSG 1899 Hoffenheim vs. SV Werder Bremen: O/U 3.5Under won
- TSG 1899 Hoffenheim vs. SV Werder Bremen: O/U 4.5Under won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.