Bundesliga · resolved market
TSG 1899 Hoffenheim vs. SV Werder Bremen: O/U 2.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x149fea15ef7c391a8bc88971cf5257cb3641d2188722ad94b8214229cfbf81d6
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Underof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Bundesligaevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $46,316
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $50,492
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $46,316 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 63 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Bundesliga is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Bundesliga | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x26b4…b8a9backed Over | 75c | 21,744$16,288 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16,288 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -1.1wins | -0.22per pick | 42cpaid | -74.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Under | 25c | 12,538$3,174 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9,363.31 | 2,538 | 39.8%1,009 W · 1,529 L | -8.1wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Under | 52c | 3,595$1,862 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,732.48 | 3,284 | 42.6%1,399 W · 1,885 L | -74.0wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -18.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7b14…f343backed Under | 29c | 2,332$676 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,655.63 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.5wins | +0.26per pick | 24cpaid | +72.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6982…a165backed Under | 75c | 1,849$1,396 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$453.24 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.26per pick | 74cpaid | +35.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5fea…78b1backed Under | 24c | 1,535$361 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,173.84 | 20 | 35%7 W · 13 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -31%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0346…52a5backed Under | 26c | 1,221$319 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$902.38 | 283 | 45.2%128 W · 155 L | +6.0wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3bae…885abacked Under | 32c | 1,000$320 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$680 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +1.7wins | +0.44per pick | 31cpaid | +183.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xb4d2…ce99backed Under | 29c | 946.44$278 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$668.58 | 53 | 45.3%24 W · 29 L | +0.5wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x49b6…326cbacked Over | 71c | 820$582 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$582.2 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.71per pick | 71cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xabc2…fd47backed Over | 71c | 790$561 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$560.9 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.71per pick | 71cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x325f…4511backed Under | 28c | 785.87$220 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$565.52 | 531 | 40.7%216 W · 315 L | -13.3wins | -0.03per pick | 43cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd218…b5c9backed Under | 24c | 765.09$185 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$579.62 | 337 | 37.4%126 W · 211 L | -11.2wins | -0.03per pick | 41cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x48dd…1f77backed Over | 71c | 760$540 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$539.6 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.71per pick | 71cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3c80…93b5backed Over | 69c | 724.64$500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$500 | 55 | 38.2%21 W · 34 L | -5.3wins | -0.10per pick | 48cpaid | -19.2%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xe398…4ce5backed Under | 66c | 606.14$400 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$206.14 | 27 | 66.7%18 W · 9 L | -0.6wins | -0.02per pick | 69cpaid | -2.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x77bc…b91bbacked Over | 58c | 570.86$334 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$333.76 | 1,305 | 40.8%532 W · 773 L | -42.3wins | -0.03per pick | 44cpaid | -21.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x435d…c52abacked Under | 29c | 519$151 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$368.49 | 14 | 21.4%3 W · 11 L | -1.1wins | -0.08per pick | 29cpaid | -36%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9df2…99f5backed Over | 6c | 416.66$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 33 | 42.4%14 W · 19 L | +1.6wins | +0.05per pick | 38cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1399…48c8backed Over | 68c | 353.6$240 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$240.45 | 124 | 60.5%75 W · 49 L | +19.9wins | +0.16per pick | 44cpaid | +46.3%equal weight | 65+0.13 edge/pick |
| 0x1eba…ff9cbacked Over | 44c | 325$144 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$143.5 | 9 | 0%0 W · 9 L | -2.4wins | -0.27per pick | 27cpaid | -100%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xf0ca…117abacked Over | 55c | 300$165 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$165 | 53 | 49.1%26 W · 27 L | +1.6wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +12.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x84ad…bfb7backed Under | 49c | 296.55$146 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$150.08 | 640 | 43.9%281 W · 359 L | -9.7wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -17.6%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7138…8c89backed Over | 71c | 294.66$209 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$209.21 | 113 | 38.9%44 W · 69 L | -3.7wins | -0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -9.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf2ba…4028backed Over | 55c | 200$110 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$110 | 388 | 45.6%177 W · 211 L | +3.8wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8fa8…c219backed Under | 66c | 200$132 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$68 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.34per pick | 66cpaid | +51.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x99d7…6435backed Under | 29c | 152.8$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$108.76 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | +0.2wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +187.6%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0d2d…7ff5backed Under | 25c | 143.07$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$107.07 | 84 | 51.2%43 W · 41 L | -1.1wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xef18…4d70backed Over | 68c | 138.14$94 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$93.94 | 164 | 64%105 W · 59 L | +28.5wins | +0.17per pick | 47cpaid | +49.2%equal weight | 67+0.15 edge/pick |
| 0xa497…7891backed Under | 28c | 136.57$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$98.71 | 24 | 50%12 W · 12 L | -0.4wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4e8c…79bdbacked Over | 71c | 120.42$85 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$85.5 | 28 | 53.6%15 W · 13 L | -0.9wins | -0.03per pick | 57cpaid | +6.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2c46…dac9backed Over | 68c | 107.35$73 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$73 | 395 | 58.7%232 W · 163 L | +27.4wins | +0.07per pick | 52cpaid | +15.4%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xd60c…2b06backed Over | 68c | 105.88$72 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$71.55 | 160 | 56.9%91 W · 69 L | +13.3wins | +0.08per pick | 49cpaid | +22.5%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xd37a…2358backed Under | 29c | 105.26$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$74.73 | 624 | 52.6%328 W · 296 L | -9.9wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3a6e…9bc5backed Over | 71c | 85.27$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60.54 | 54 | 68.5%37 W · 17 L | +2.9wins | +0.05per pick | 63cpaid | +8.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x00b0…7baebacked Over | 71c | 80.15$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.91 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -1.1wins | -0.28per pick | 53cpaid | -50%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2e27…9967backed Over | 68c | 75.31$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.07 | 21 | 52.4%11 W · 10 L | -3.1wins | -0.15per pick | 67cpaid | -23.9%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x57c3…44b8backed Over | 69c | 72.46$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.1wins | +0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -17%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5df5…c44cbacked Over | 48c | 72.44$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.82 | 147 | 55.8%82 W · 65 L | +5.9wins | +0.04per pick | 52cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x38bb…2fcfbacked Over | 71c | 70.42$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 10 | 60%6 W · 4 L | -0.4wins | -0.04per pick | 64cpaid | -10.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdb83…1e50backed Under | 28c | 70.17$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50.52 | 264 | 45.5%120 W · 144 L | -2.7wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2f26…0d8fbacked Over | 73c | 62.5$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.63 | 105 | 49.5%52 W · 53 L | +2.7wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x424e…263bbacked Over | 70c | 56.67$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.67 | 287 | 55.1%158 W · 129 L | +12.3wins | +0.04per pick | 51cpaid | +8.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf497…5ce0backed Over | 29c | 52$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.08 | 117 | 44.4%52 W · 65 L | -4.2wins | -0.04per pick | 48cpaid | -11.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7bee…7057backed Under | 20c | 50$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40 | 4 | 100%4 W · 0 L | +2.1wins | +0.52per pick | 48cpaid | +157.4%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xb63a…7637backed Over | 71c | 42.25$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 63 | 69.8%44 W · 19 L | +4.7wins | +0.08per pick | 62cpaid | +12.2%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x97ff…d970backed Over | 71c | 42.25$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -1.2wins | -0.40per pick | 73cpaid | -53.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x03f5…3047backed Over | 71c | 42.25$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 88 | 63.6%56 W · 32 L | +2.0wins | +0.02per pick | 61cpaid | +3.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0c36…e462backed Over | 71c | 40$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.4 | 8 | 75%6 W · 2 L | +1.4wins | +0.18per pick | 57cpaid | +50.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xcfff…3d0ebacked Over | 73c | 40$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29 | 20 | 60%12 W · 8 L | +0.6wins | +0.03per pick | 57cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2f46…76f5backed Over | 65c | 38.46$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.3wins | +0.07per pick | 53cpaid | +19.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc551…fa51backed Over | 68c | 28.41$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.32 | 62 | 64.5%40 W · 22 L | +7.2wins | +0.12per pick | 53cpaid | +23.6%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xbd93…56c0backed Over | 68c | 28.41$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.32 | 54 | 57.4%31 W · 23 L | +2.6wins | +0.05per pick | 53cpaid | +26.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9b78…473dbacked Over | 68c | 28.41$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.32 | 53 | 58.5%31 W · 22 L | +2.7wins | +0.05per pick | 53cpaid | +31.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7203…795abacked Over | 68c | 28.41$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.32 | 65 | 64.6%42 W · 23 L | +4.8wins | +0.07per pick | 57cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x72ee…a848backed Over | 60c | 25$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 115 | 56.5%65 W · 50 L | +0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 56cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3aa7…303dbacked Under | 70c | 23.52$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.06 | 40 | 70%28 W · 12 L | +4.0wins | +0.10per pick | 60cpaid | +22.1%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xd082…1375backed Over | 71c | 21.13$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.6wins | +0.14per pick | 61cpaid | +46.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5a91…7ebabacked Over | 71c | 21.13$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 57 | 68.4%39 W · 18 L | +1.6wins | +0.03per pick | 66cpaid | +4.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x94a7…e322backed Under | 65c | 20.86$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.3 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.35per pick | 65cpaid | +53.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9eae…98a5backed Over | 75c | 20$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 94 | 68.1%64 W · 30 L | -3.2wins | -0.03per pick | 71cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffd…7821backed Under | 62c | 20$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.6 | 47 | 51.1%24 W · 23 L | -2.1wins | -0.05per pick | 56cpaid | -17.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd0a5…7f75backed Over | 75c | 19.9$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 12 | 50%6 W · 6 L | -0.7wins | -0.06per pick | 56cpaid | -24.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Bundesliga and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- TSG 1899 Hoffenheim vs. SV Werder Bremen: O/U 2.5this page
- Spread: SV Werder Bremen (-1.5)TSG 1899 Hoffenheim won
- Spread: TSG 1899 Hoffenheim (-1.5)SV Werder Bremen won
- Spread: TSG 1899 Hoffenheim (-2.5)SV Werder Bremen won
- TSG 1899 Hoffenheim vs. SV Werder Bremen: Both Teams to ScoreNo won
- TSG 1899 Hoffenheim vs. SV Werder Bremen: O/U 1.5Under won
- TSG 1899 Hoffenheim vs. SV Werder Bremen: O/U 3.5Under won
- TSG 1899 Hoffenheim vs. SV Werder Bremen: O/U 4.5Under won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.