Bundesliga · resolved market
TSG 1899 Hoffenheim vs. SV Werder Bremen: Both Teams to Score
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xf35facce42d10e8d66751777222faf37b1b3ec8c493c77f11ef43057928ccf32
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Bundesligaevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $7,099
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $7,541
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $7,099 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 44 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Bundesliga is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Bundesliga | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x106b…4e8bbacked Yes | 33c | 583.33$192 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$192.5 | 15 | 40%6 W · 9 L | -1.0wins | -0.07per pick | 47cpaid | -24%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x424e…263bbacked No | 36c | 519.99$187 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$332.79 | 287 | 55.1%158 W · 129 L | +12.3wins | +0.04per pick | 51cpaid | +8.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8165…97b8backed No | 58c | 506.38$294 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$212.68 | 39 | 46.2%18 W · 21 L | -3.2wins | -0.08per pick | 54cpaid | -26.2%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc686…5a55backed Yes | 18c | 500$90 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$90 | 241 | 32%77 W · 164 L | -4.2wins | -0.02per pick | 34cpaid | -6.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0176…ff71backed No | 55c | 499.98$275 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$224.99 | 4 | 100%4 W · 0 L | +2.1wins | +0.52per pick | 48cpaid | +109.8%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x397e…3d84backed Yes | 45c | 395.03$178 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$177.76 | 446 | 55.4%247 W · 199 L | +22.4wins | +0.05per pick | 50cpaid | +11.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3ac2…f949backed Yes | 64c | 312.5$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 49 | 65.3%32 W · 17 L | +1.4wins | +0.03per pick | 63cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x133b…5856backed Yes | 65c | 257.81$168 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$168.03 | 45 | 57.8%26 W · 19 L | +2.3wins | +0.05per pick | 53cpaid | +14%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xca0d…2602backed No | 55c | 180.38$99 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$81.38 | 21 | 42.9%9 W · 12 L | -1.9wins | -0.09per pick | 52cpaid | -28.9%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7138…8c89backed No | 36c | 178.58$65 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$113.95 | 113 | 38.9%44 W · 69 L | -3.7wins | -0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -9.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb4d2…ce99backed No | 49c | 175.99$86 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$89.75 | 53 | 45.3%24 W · 29 L | +0.5wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Yes | 34c | 164.76$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.56 | 3,284 | 42.6%1,399 W · 1,885 L | -74.0wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -18.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf693…995ebacked No | 43c | 160$69 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$90.8 | 38 | 47.4%18 W · 20 L | +3.2wins | +0.09per pick | 39cpaid | +40.8%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4c3f…32b2backed No | 60c | 136.72$82 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54.69 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +4.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcc11…c87bbacked Yes | 64c | 120$77 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$76.8 | 11 | 45.5%5 W · 6 L | -1.1wins | -0.10per pick | 56cpaid | -24.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa639…f5e8backed Yes | 42c | 119.05$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 147 | 58.5%86 W · 61 L | +15.9wins | +0.11per pick | 48cpaid | +30.6%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x2c46…dac9backed Yes | 45c | 113.52$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51 | 395 | 58.7%232 W · 163 L | +27.4wins | +0.07per pick | 52cpaid | +15.4%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x72b2…0104backed No | 58c | 111.76$65 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.76 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +1.4wins | +0.45per pick | 55cpaid | +86%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3b68…0060backed Yes | 64c | 100$64 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64 | 12 | 58.3%7 W · 5 L | -0.4wins | -0.04per pick | 62cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb4f3…999fbacked No | 54c | 100$54 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46 | 115 | 39.1%45 W · 70 L | -1.3wins | -0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -14.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked No | 67c | 88.1$59 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.69 | 2,538 | 39.8%1,009 W · 1,529 L | -8.1wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5258…534ebacked Yes | 46c | 80$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.8 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +0.9wins | +0.15per pick | 51cpaid | +30.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe500…4b37backed Yes | 64c | 70$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.8 | 24 | 54.2%13 W · 11 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe619…6342backed Yes | 35c | 67.57$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.65 | 34 | 29.4%10 W · 24 L | -5.3wins | -0.16per pick | 45cpaid | -44.2%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x200f…7a96backed No | 35c | 66.59$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.18 | 1,083 | 50.8%550 W · 533 L | +8.2wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x77bc…b91bbacked Yes | 44c | 66.23$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.14 | 1,305 | 40.8%532 W · 773 L | -42.3wins | -0.03per pick | 44cpaid | -21.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2b35…0bfebacked Yes | 64c | 60$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.4 | 31 | 67.7%21 W · 10 L | +1.8wins | +0.06per pick | 62cpaid | +18.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x52f2…5a5dbacked No | 60c | 59.98$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.99 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | +0.7wins | +0.07per pick | 48cpaid | -3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0d2d…7ff5backed Yes | 39c | 48.94$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.9 | 84 | 51.2%43 W · 41 L | -1.1wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa578…6702backed Yes | 63c | 48$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.24 | 152 | 44.1%67 W · 85 L | -2.1wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x29a5…a3c4backed Yes | 31c | 43.56$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.53 | 109 | 56%61 W · 48 L | +3.0wins | +0.03per pick | 53cpaid | +4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf02f…1ed8backed No | 54c | 42.41$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.51 | 172 | 47.1%81 W · 91 L | +2.9wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc311…c154backed No | 53c | 37.74$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.74 | 15 | 66.7%10 W · 5 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 68cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x01c7…e995backed No | 54c | 37.59$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.29 | 1,013 | 44.5%451 W · 562 L | -8.2wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -20.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7328…7f6cbacked No | 54c | 37.59$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.29 | 22 | 27.3%6 W · 16 L | -2.3wins | -0.10per pick | 38cpaid | -48%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x33a8…2a71backed No | 56c | 33.77$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.77 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.44per pick | 56cpaid | +77.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1e3a…eb5cbacked Yes | 64c | 31.25$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 13 | 76.9%10 W · 3 L | +2.4wins | +0.18per pick | 59cpaid | +35.4%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x157a…e4a3backed Yes | 65c | 30.77$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 79 | 58.2%46 W · 33 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 58cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x030d…8e95backed Yes | 51c | 30.57$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.58 | 40 | 45%18 W · 22 L | -4.0wins | -0.10per pick | 55cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xeb7f…0abbbacked Yes | 43c | 25.44$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | -2.1wins | -0.21per pick | 61cpaid | -38.4%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5a91…7ebabacked Yes | 65c | 23.08$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 57 | 68.4%39 W · 18 L | +1.6wins | +0.03per pick | 66cpaid | +4.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf7a6…aed7backed No | 60c | 21.33$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.53 | 16 | 81.3%13 W · 3 L | +2.7wins | +0.17per pick | 64cpaid | +26.9%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x1b91…27dcbacked Yes | 64c | 15.63$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 26 | 61.5%16 W · 10 L | +0.9wins | +0.03per pick | 58cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc080…f9a0backed Yes | 64c | 15.63$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 12 | 58.3%7 W · 5 L | -1.0wins | -0.09per pick | 67cpaid | -11.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Bundesliga and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- TSG 1899 Hoffenheim vs. SV Werder Bremen: Both Teams to Scorethis page
- Spread: SV Werder Bremen (-1.5)TSG 1899 Hoffenheim won
- Spread: TSG 1899 Hoffenheim (-1.5)SV Werder Bremen won
- Spread: TSG 1899 Hoffenheim (-2.5)SV Werder Bremen won
- TSG 1899 Hoffenheim vs. SV Werder Bremen: O/U 1.5Under won
- TSG 1899 Hoffenheim vs. SV Werder Bremen: O/U 2.5Under won
- TSG 1899 Hoffenheim vs. SV Werder Bremen: O/U 3.5Under won
- TSG 1899 Hoffenheim vs. SV Werder Bremen: O/U 4.5Under won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.