Bundesliga · resolved market
TSG 1899 Hoffenheim vs. SV Werder Bremen: O/U 4.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x4bfb26ddf97b31b4d4e25fe45662a58fc3d556c20ee9647b3ee9ff791dd6c75a
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Underof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Bundesligaevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $14,378
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $14,817
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $14,378 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 38 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Bundesliga is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Bundesliga | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x683a…274ebacked Over | 32c | 2,194$702 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$701.94 | 48 | 39.6%19 W · 29 L | +2.8wins | +0.06per pick | 34cpaid | +16.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2fd6…d7babacked Over | 31c | 1,590$500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$500 | 15 | 33.3%5 W · 10 L | -0.4wins | -0.03per pick | 36cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Under | 70c | 789.56$554 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$235.08 | 2,538 | 39.8%1,009 W · 1,529 L | -8.1wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0346…52a5backed Under | 74c | 751.54$558 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$193.74 | 283 | 45.2%128 W · 155 L | +6.0wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9897…c033backed Under | 72c | 700$501 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$199 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +0.1wins | +0.02per pick | 65cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe550…4ebbbacked Over | 28c | 546.43$153 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$153 | 126 | 35.7%45 W · 81 L | +5.4wins | +0.04per pick | 31cpaid | +5.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb4d2…ce99backed Under | 75c | 497$373 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$124.25 | 53 | 45.3%24 W · 29 L | +0.5wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Under | 71c | 466.8$333 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$134.03 | 3,284 | 42.6%1,399 W · 1,885 L | -74.0wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -18.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8f13…daaebacked Over | 17c | 300$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51 | 73 | 28.8%21 W · 52 L | -3.6wins | -0.05per pick | 34cpaid | -21.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1eba…ff9cbacked Over | 12c | 300$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36 | 9 | 0%0 W · 9 L | -2.4wins | -0.27per pick | 27cpaid | -100%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x77bc…b91bbacked Under | 68c | 288.51$196 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$92.32 | 1,305 | 40.8%532 W · 773 L | -42.3wins | -0.03per pick | 44cpaid | -21.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x758e…f824backed Under | 73c | 205.48$150 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55.48 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.25per pick | 75cpaid | +33.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdb83…1e50backed Over | 21c | 204.6$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.54 | 264 | 45.5%120 W · 144 L | -2.7wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x435d…c52abacked Over | 30c | 199.99$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 14 | 21.4%3 W · 11 L | -1.1wins | -0.08per pick | 29cpaid | -36%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdbdd…a5debacked Over | 30c | 179.31$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53 | 486 | 58.6%285 W · 201 L | +44.5wins | +0.09per pick | 49cpaid | +33%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xc61d…3933backed Over | 30c | 166.67$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 64 | 28.1%18 W · 46 L | -3.9wins | -0.06per pick | 34cpaid | -28.3%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf4f8…5bf1backed Over | 25c | 153.6$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.4 | 97 | 42.3%41 W · 56 L | -5.7wins | -0.06per pick | 48cpaid | -20.6%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa710…f1ccbacked Over | 30c | 140$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42 | 179 | 30.2%54 W · 125 L | -1.3wins | -0.01per pick | 31cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa6af…b5efbacked Under | 72c | 138.89$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.89 | 61 | 47.5%29 W · 32 L | -8.5wins | -0.14per pick | 62cpaid | -28.6%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x94e3…49b7backed Under | 73c | 134.48$98 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.31 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | -0.9wins | -0.13per pick | 71cpaid | -18.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3a6e…9bc5backed Under | 71c | 121.62$86 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.27 | 54 | 68.5%37 W · 17 L | +2.9wins | +0.05per pick | 63cpaid | +8.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x39fc…e2f2backed Under | 65c | 111.08$72 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.72 | 88 | 44.3%39 W · 49 L | +3.1wins | +0.04per pick | 41cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd37a…2358backed Under | 70c | 102.78$72 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.83 | 624 | 52.6%328 W · 296 L | -9.9wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xff79…a52abacked Over | 30c | 100$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 105 | 52.4%55 W · 50 L | +4.7wins | +0.05per pick | 48cpaid | +16.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xef18…4d70backed Over | 25c | 99.5$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.55 | 164 | 64%105 W · 59 L | +28.5wins | +0.17per pick | 47cpaid | +49.2%equal weight | 67+0.15 edge/pick |
| 0xaa89…ccd2backed Under | 70c | 92.86$65 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.86 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.36per pick | 64cpaid | +56.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9e69…2650backed Under | 73c | 91.47$67 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.7 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -1.1wins | -0.38per pick | 71cpaid | -54.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x200f…7a96backed Over | 29c | 89.23$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.88 | 1,083 | 50.8%550 W · 533 L | +8.2wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0345…865cbacked Under | 72c | 61.18$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.18 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.25per pick | 75cpaid | +32.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7138…8c89backed Over | 30c | 58.93$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.68 | 113 | 38.9%44 W · 69 L | -3.7wins | -0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -9.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe941…a496backed Under | 72c | 42.41$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.84 | 73 | 65.8%48 W · 25 L | +8.5wins | +0.12per pick | 54cpaid | +16.7%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xcfff…3d0ebacked Under | 66c | 40$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.6 | 20 | 60%12 W · 8 L | +0.6wins | +0.03per pick | 57cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7bee…7057backed Under | 64c | 40$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.4 | 4 | 100%4 W · 0 L | +2.1wins | +0.52per pick | 48cpaid | +157.4%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x1e3b…e232backed Under | 71c | 35$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.25 | 202 | 51%103 W · 99 L | -4.3wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x84ad…bfb7backed Under | 72c | 34.56$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.81 | 640 | 43.9%281 W · 359 L | -9.7wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -17.6%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x491c…b765backed Under | 70c | 20$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6 | 54 | 64.8%35 W · 19 L | -0.9wins | -0.02per pick | 67cpaid | -4.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc5a9…0c9abacked Under | 71c | 20$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.8 | 16 | 68.8%11 W · 5 L | +1.6wins | +0.10per pick | 59cpaid | +17%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5df5…c44cbacked Under | 66c | 17.12$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.81 | 147 | 55.8%82 W · 65 L | +5.9wins | +0.04per pick | 52cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Bundesliga and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- TSG 1899 Hoffenheim vs. SV Werder Bremen: O/U 4.5this page
- Spread: SV Werder Bremen (-1.5)TSG 1899 Hoffenheim won
- Spread: TSG 1899 Hoffenheim (-1.5)SV Werder Bremen won
- Spread: TSG 1899 Hoffenheim (-2.5)SV Werder Bremen won
- TSG 1899 Hoffenheim vs. SV Werder Bremen: Both Teams to ScoreNo won
- TSG 1899 Hoffenheim vs. SV Werder Bremen: O/U 1.5Under won
- TSG 1899 Hoffenheim vs. SV Werder Bremen: O/U 2.5Under won
- TSG 1899 Hoffenheim vs. SV Werder Bremen: O/U 3.5Under won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.