Bundesliga · resolved market
SpVgg Greuther Fürth vs. SC Paderborn 07: O/U 2.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xa6a2b231000b6d933667f06a2d4603f1b29fceb3cfda4ecac0f5e4f9cd3ae99f
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Underof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Bundesligaevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $6,457
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $6,688
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $6,457 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 59 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Bundesliga is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Bundesliga | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x6d22…4b50backed Over | 29c | 999$290 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$289.71 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -1.0wins | -0.25per pick | 50cpaid | -59.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Over | 26c | 886.98$232 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$232.13 | 2,538 | 39.8%1,009 W · 1,529 L | -8.1wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Under | 71c | 729.43$521 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$208.4 | 3,284 | 42.6%1,399 W · 1,885 L | -74.0wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -18.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6619…703ebacked Over | 63c | 476.19$300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$300 | 189 | 58.2%110 W · 79 L | -6.5wins | -0.03per pick | 62cpaid | -2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfe78…0319backed Under | 49c | 450.04$221 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$228.93 | 481 | 41.8%201 W · 280 L | -5.3wins | -0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -12.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6b84…2f73backed Under | 68c | 441.18$300 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$141.18 | 9 | 88.9%8 W · 1 L | +2.3wins | +0.25per pick | 64cpaid | +44.6%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xfbb5…2b6abacked Over | 39c | 307.69$120 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$120 | 264 | 33.3%88 W · 176 L | +4.3wins | +0.02per pick | 32cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x505a…bb61backed Over | 50c | 278$139 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$139 | 17 | 58.8%10 W · 7 L | +1.0wins | +0.06per pick | 53cpaid | +10.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7d0c…a3b7backed Under | 37c | 250$93 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$157.5 | 496 | 47.4%235 W · 261 L | +2.0wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd01c…7f9dbacked Under | 37c | 190$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$119.7 | 481 | 46.4%223 W · 258 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x77bc…b91bbacked Over | 33c | 145.71$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.53 | 1,305 | 40.8%532 W · 773 L | -42.3wins | -0.03per pick | 44cpaid | -21.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xae7b…aec1backed Under | 76c | 133.92$101 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.55 | 19 | 63.2%12 W · 7 L | +0.8wins | +0.04per pick | 59cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2652…2a1dbacked Under | 56c | 130.34$72 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$57.87 | 782 | 48.8%382 W · 400 L | -28.1wins | -0.04per pick | 52cpaid | -12.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7ea5…de7bbacked Under | 39c | 122.29$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$75.13 | 1,681 | 45.2%759 W · 922 L | +6.8wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | -2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x873d…f7a9backed Under | 68c | 102.94$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.94 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +0.7wins | +0.14per pick | 66cpaid | +10.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9d30…077dbacked Over | 58c | 102.75$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 41 | 43.9%18 W · 23 L | -3.7wins | -0.09per pick | 53cpaid | -21.6%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf2ba…4028backed Over | 39c | 100$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39 | 388 | 45.6%177 W · 211 L | +3.8wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc291…5d74backed Under | 38c | 85.79$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.88 | 817 | 32.8%268 W · 549 L | -11.2wins | -0.01per pick | 34cpaid | -12.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf38c…d9f2backed Over | 57c | 85$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.45 | 117 | 48.7%57 W · 60 L | -3.8wins | -0.03per pick | 52cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa6af…b5efbacked Over | 61c | 81.97$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 61 | 47.5%29 W · 32 L | -8.5wins | -0.14per pick | 62cpaid | -28.6%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xc770…8dbbbacked Over | 62c | 81$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.22 | 108 | 64.8%70 W · 38 L | +2.9wins | +0.03per pick | 62cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9e5c…d8e6backed Under | 38c | 75$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.5 | 237 | 45.6%108 W · 129 L | -2.0wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -13%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4a4b…bbcabacked Over | 50c | 70$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35 | 346 | 55.5%192 W · 154 L | +9.8wins | +0.03per pick | 53cpaid | +4.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x200f…7a96backed Under | 39c | 65$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.65 | 1,083 | 50.8%550 W · 533 L | +8.2wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x32cc…68b3backed Under | 74c | 61.65$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.03 | 213 | 55.4%118 W · 95 L | +8.1wins | +0.04per pick | 52cpaid | +6.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x26dd…0249backed Under | 74c | 61.65$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.03 | 68 | 44.1%30 W · 38 L | -4.7wins | -0.07per pick | 51cpaid | -12.7%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x948b…a188backed Under | 74c | 61.65$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.03 | 185 | 54.1%100 W · 85 L | -4.2wins | -0.02per pick | 56cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x86fb…03d4backed Under | 74c | 61.65$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.03 | 85 | 47.1%40 W · 45 L | -8.0wins | -0.09per pick | 57cpaid | -22.3%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xd809…6542backed Under | 74c | 61.65$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.03 | 177 | 49.7%88 W · 89 L | -10.4wins | -0.06per pick | 56cpaid | -18.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe6a3…04bebacked Under | 74c | 61.65$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.03 | 77 | 51.9%40 W · 37 L | -5.3wins | -0.07per pick | 59cpaid | -15.8%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa42c…b22ebacked Under | 74c | 61.65$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.03 | 22 | 40.9%9 W · 13 L | -3.3wins | -0.15per pick | 56cpaid | -35.8%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x82de…1337backed Under | 74c | 61.65$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.03 | 111 | 48.6%54 W · 57 L | -5.4wins | -0.05per pick | 54cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x07d0…1310backed Under | 74c | 61.65$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.03 | 15 | 53.3%8 W · 7 L | -0.8wins | -0.05per pick | 59cpaid | -21.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2302…d6d2backed Under | 74c | 61.65$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.03 | 186 | 44.1%82 W · 104 L | -10.9wins | -0.06per pick | 50cpaid | -20.5%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2e6c…e09cbacked Under | 74c | 61.65$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.03 | 110 | 49.1%54 W · 56 L | -4.4wins | -0.04per pick | 53cpaid | -9.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa4e8…ff03backed Under | 74c | 61.65$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.03 | 34 | 64.7%22 W · 12 L | +2.6wins | +0.08per pick | 57cpaid | +19.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfb51…082dbacked Under | 74c | 61.65$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.03 | 205 | 48.3%99 W · 106 L | -10.0wins | -0.05per pick | 53cpaid | -11.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbe02…5fb3backed Under | 74c | 61.65$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.03 | 55 | 56.4%31 W · 24 L | +3.3wins | +0.06per pick | 50cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb5bd…b891backed Under | 74c | 61.65$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.03 | 73 | 49.3%36 W · 37 L | -4.8wins | -0.07per pick | 56cpaid | -17.1%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6569…7600backed Under | 74c | 61.65$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.03 | 47 | 44.7%21 W · 26 L | -5.9wins | -0.13per pick | 57cpaid | -29.1%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xd51e…ac0cbacked Under | 74c | 61.65$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.03 | 74 | 50%37 W · 37 L | -0.6wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7335…dd65backed Under | 74c | 61.65$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.03 | 12 | 66.7%8 W · 4 L | +0.6wins | +0.05per pick | 62cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8632…4696backed Under | 39c | 57.38$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35 | 82 | 52.4%43 W · 39 L | +1.3wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1a29…16c5backed Over | 61c | 57.38$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35 | 94 | 47.9%45 W · 49 L | -2.1wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd28e…a78fbacked Over | 61c | 57.38$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35 | 38 | 57.9%22 W · 16 L | +1.8wins | +0.05per pick | 53cpaid | +9.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked Under | 70c | 50$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15 | 1,355 | 50.9%690 W · 665 L | +12.7wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf497…5ce0backed Over | 30c | 50$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 117 | 44.4%52 W · 65 L | -4.2wins | -0.04per pick | 48cpaid | -11.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0e41…36f2backed Over | 57c | 50$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.5 | 52 | 67.3%35 W · 17 L | +5.7wins | +0.11per pick | 56cpaid | +24%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xfaa0…441abacked Over | 47c | 50$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.5 | 38 | 47.4%18 W · 20 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe8af…a0a5backed Over | 34c | 48.99$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.76 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | +0.2wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0a76…b30fbacked Over | 44c | 39.69$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.62 | 63 | 39.7%25 W · 38 L | -5.8wins | -0.09per pick | 49cpaid | -20.6%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xa975…42eebacked Under | 74c | 33.78$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.78 | 50 | 52%26 W · 24 L | -0.7wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x06e7…3acabacked Under | 74c | 33.78$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.78 | 77 | 49.4%38 W · 39 L | -4.4wins | -0.06per pick | 55cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x51eb…6bfabacked Over | 61c | 32.79$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 137 | 54%74 W · 63 L | -5.5wins | -0.04per pick | 58cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1f62…76f6backed Under | 37c | 31.19$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.65 | 636 | 45.1%287 W · 349 L | +5.2wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb63a…7637backed Over | 62c | 30$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.6 | 63 | 69.8%44 W · 19 L | +4.7wins | +0.08per pick | 62cpaid | +12.2%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x819b…6a57backed Over | 62c | 24.19$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 20 | 75%15 W · 5 L | +2.1wins | +0.11per pick | 64cpaid | +15.1%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x16fe…9496backed Over | 62c | 20$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.4 | 158 | 54.4%86 W · 72 L | +6.5wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | +8.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8de7…61c0backed Over | 61c | 18.03$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 22 | 54.5%12 W · 10 L | -0.5wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Bundesliga and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- SpVgg Greuther Fürth vs. SC Paderborn 07: O/U 2.5this page
- SpVgg Greuther Fürth vs. SC Paderborn 07: Both Teams to ScoreNo won
- SpVgg Greuther Fürth vs. SC Paderborn 07: O/U 1.5Over won
- SpVgg Greuther Fürth vs. SC Paderborn 07: O/U 3.5Under won
- SpVgg Greuther Fürth vs. SC Paderborn 07: O/U 4.5Under won
- Spread: SC Paderborn 07 (-1.5)SC Paderborn 07 won
- Spread: SpVgg Greuther Fürth (-1.5)SC Paderborn 07 won
- Spread: SpVgg Greuther Fürth (-2.5)SC Paderborn 07 won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.