Bundesliga · resolved market
SpVgg Greuther Fürth vs. SC Paderborn 07: Both Teams to Score
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xf276b00c6e02a7698a36a108e2d6ca3acfd493f467d1c293be668270a6696576
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Bundesligaevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $3,304
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $3,440
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $3,304 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 26 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Bundesliga is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Bundesliga | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x204f…5e14backed No | 61c | 817.85$497 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$321.27 | 3,284 | 42.6%1,399 W · 1,885 L | -74.0wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -18.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc686…5a55backed Yes | 41c | 500$205 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$205 | 241 | 32%77 W · 164 L | -4.2wins | -0.02per pick | 34cpaid | -6.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2c2e…a948backed Yes | 50c | 400$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 46 | 56.5%26 W · 20 L | +4.7wins | +0.10per pick | 46cpaid | +27%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x0fce…c02abacked Yes | 17c | 300$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +1.9wins | +0.32per pick | 18cpaid | +251.8%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xfbb5…2b6abacked Yes | 44c | 272.73$120 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$120 | 264 | 33.3%88 W · 176 L | +4.3wins | +0.02per pick | 32cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked No | 56c | 166.99$94 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$73.48 | 2,538 | 39.8%1,009 W · 1,529 L | -8.1wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfce1…4f4cbacked No | 51c | 105.39$54 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.64 | 49 | 71.4%35 W · 14 L | +7.3wins | +0.15per pick | 57cpaid | +43.1%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x2a53…074abacked No | 51c | 105.39$54 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.64 | 21 | 66.7%14 W · 7 L | +2.6wins | +0.12per pick | 54cpaid | +61.9%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xadb9…ef55backed No | 51c | 105.39$54 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.64 | 41 | 63.4%26 W · 15 L | +2.6wins | +0.06per pick | 57cpaid | +20.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x22e8…8435backed No | 51c | 105.39$54 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.64 | 14 | 64.3%9 W · 5 L | +0.6wins | +0.04per pick | 60cpaid | +4.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7c8a…02acbacked No | 51c | 105.39$54 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.64 | 36 | 55.6%20 W · 16 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | +24.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x30db…44e1backed No | 51c | 105.39$54 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.64 | 68 | 60.3%41 W · 27 L | +2.1wins | +0.03per pick | 57cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc9b7…93ebbacked No | 51c | 105.39$54 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.64 | 31 | 61.3%19 W · 12 L | +1.2wins | +0.04per pick | 57cpaid | +42.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0040…9eb8backed Yes | 59c | 100$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59 | 225 | 62.2%140 W · 85 L | +4.3wins | +0.02per pick | 60cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb897…fc48backed Yes | 51c | 100$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51 | 117 | 41.9%49 W · 68 L | +7.6wins | +0.07per pick | 35cpaid | +12.7%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc291…5d74backed No | 46c | 75.82$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.57 | 817 | 32.8%268 W · 549 L | -11.2wins | -0.01per pick | 34cpaid | -12.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0e41…36f2backed Yes | 56c | 55$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.8 | 52 | 67.3%35 W · 17 L | +5.7wins | +0.11per pick | 56cpaid | +24%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xbfd7…f0bfbacked No | 73c | 45.79$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.34 | 215 | 40.9%88 W · 127 L | -15.5wins | -0.07per pick | 48cpaid | -24.3%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x0079…b852backed Yes | 48c | 41.67$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 30 | 70%21 W · 9 L | +3.2wins | +0.11per pick | 59cpaid | +18%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2b7d…866bbacked Yes | 62c | 40.32$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 41 | 61%25 W · 16 L | +0.9wins | +0.02per pick | 59cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7ea5…de7bbacked No | 38c | 35.27$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.87 | 1,681 | 45.2%759 W · 922 L | +6.8wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | -2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5944…bd5bbacked Yes | 50c | 30$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 138 | 51.4%71 W · 67 L | +4.9wins | +0.04per pick | 48cpaid | +12.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfaa0…441abacked Yes | 51c | 30$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.3 | 38 | 47.4%18 W · 20 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x200f…7a96backed No | 38c | 27.13$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.93 | 1,083 | 50.8%550 W · 533 L | +8.2wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1d94…9100backed No | 76c | 25.69$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.27 | 762 | 34.8%265 W · 497 L | +9.4wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x16fe…9496backed Yes | 63c | 20$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.6 | 158 | 54.4%86 W · 72 L | +6.5wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | +8.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Bundesliga and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- SpVgg Greuther Fürth vs. SC Paderborn 07: Both Teams to Scorethis page
- SpVgg Greuther Fürth vs. SC Paderborn 07: O/U 1.5Over won
- SpVgg Greuther Fürth vs. SC Paderborn 07: O/U 2.5Under won
- SpVgg Greuther Fürth vs. SC Paderborn 07: O/U 3.5Under won
- SpVgg Greuther Fürth vs. SC Paderborn 07: O/U 4.5Under won
- Spread: SC Paderborn 07 (-1.5)SC Paderborn 07 won
- Spread: SpVgg Greuther Fürth (-1.5)SC Paderborn 07 won
- Spread: SpVgg Greuther Fürth (-2.5)SC Paderborn 07 won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.