Bundesliga · resolved market
SpVgg Greuther Fürth vs. SC Paderborn 07: O/U 4.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x6da2c578148599e98a487b2a80b3d9219f802687c6eff2fa6adcaeb0640a7e2e
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Underof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Bundesligaevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $3,100
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $3,643
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $3,100 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 13 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Bundesliga is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Bundesliga | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x7d0c…a3b7backed Over | 4c | 495.99$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.85 | 496 | 47.4%235 W · 261 L | +2.0wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x77bc…b91bbacked Over | 5c | 333.49$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.06 | 1,305 | 40.8%532 W · 773 L | -42.3wins | -0.03per pick | 44cpaid | -21.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x712c…1e0fbacked Over | 24c | 318.21$76 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$76.37 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.16per pick | 16cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2266…83b6backed Under | 76c | 318.21$242 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$76.37 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.05per pick | 38cpaid | -56.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5f84…67efbacked Over | 22c | 209.7$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.04 | 147 | 26.5%39 W · 108 L | -0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 27cpaid | -12.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0323…5dedbacked Over | 24c | 204.1$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.98 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.17per pick | 17cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x959b…900dbacked Under | 76c | 204.1$155 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.98 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.24per pick | 76cpaid | +31.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc291…5d74backed Over | 13c | 175.94$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.1 | 817 | 32.8%268 W · 549 L | -11.2wins | -0.01per pick | 34cpaid | -12.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9cb4…8285backed Under | 78c | 110.61$86 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.33 | 550 | 58.7%323 W · 227 L | +23.5wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6c67…a813backed Under | 80c | 76.38$61 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.28 | 9 | 66.7%6 W · 3 L | -0.8wins | -0.09per pick | 75cpaid | -11.9%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3dfb…ebbfbacked Over | 15c | 74$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.1 | 40 | 42.5%17 W · 23 L | -3.3wins | -0.08per pick | 51cpaid | -20.7%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x200f…7a96backed Under | 78c | 33$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.26 | 1,083 | 50.8%550 W · 533 L | +8.2wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf3a9…3003backed Under | 80c | 12.5$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2.5 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.05per pick | 80cpaid | -6.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Bundesliga and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- SpVgg Greuther Fürth vs. SC Paderborn 07: O/U 4.5this page
- SpVgg Greuther Fürth vs. SC Paderborn 07: Both Teams to ScoreNo won
- SpVgg Greuther Fürth vs. SC Paderborn 07: O/U 1.5Over won
- SpVgg Greuther Fürth vs. SC Paderborn 07: O/U 2.5Under won
- SpVgg Greuther Fürth vs. SC Paderborn 07: O/U 3.5Under won
- Spread: SC Paderborn 07 (-1.5)SC Paderborn 07 won
- Spread: SpVgg Greuther Fürth (-1.5)SC Paderborn 07 won
- Spread: SpVgg Greuther Fürth (-2.5)SC Paderborn 07 won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.