Bundesliga · resolved market
Spread: SC Paderborn 07 (-1.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x641281fefe445e910e3c82917ffe80d1e00c43e46e6333581dae112cbaed2571
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- SC Paderborn 07of SC Paderborn 07, SpVgg Greuther Fürth
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Bundesligaevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $1,908
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $1,936
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $1,908 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 26 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Bundesliga is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Bundesliga | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x204f…5e14backed SC Paderborn 07 | 20c | 279.86$57 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$223.25 | 3,284 | 42.6%1,399 W · 1,885 L | -74.0wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -18.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdbde…3dc9backed SC Paderborn 07 | 29c | 178$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$126.38 | 40 | 47.5%19 W · 21 L | +1.6wins | +0.04per pick | 44cpaid | +59.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3dfb…ebbfbacked SpVgg Greuther Fürth | 71c | 159$113 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$112.89 | 40 | 42.5%17 W · 23 L | -3.3wins | -0.08per pick | 51cpaid | -20.7%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7d0c…a3b7backed SC Paderborn 07 | 21c | 150$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$118.5 | 496 | 47.4%235 W · 261 L | +2.0wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x42df…bb2fbacked SC Paderborn 07 | 26c | 149.99$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$110.99 | 58 | 34.5%20 W · 38 L | +5.1wins | +0.09per pick | 26cpaid | +43.6%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xc291…5d74backed SC Paderborn 07 | 25c | 71.04$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.53 | 817 | 32.8%268 W · 549 L | -11.2wins | -0.01per pick | 34cpaid | -12.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x77bc…b91bbacked SpVgg Greuther Fürth | 50c | 62.6$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.53 | 1,305 | 40.8%532 W · 773 L | -42.3wins | -0.03per pick | 44cpaid | -21.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x32cc…68b3backed SpVgg Greuther Fürth | 80c | 39.5$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.6 | 213 | 55.4%118 W · 95 L | +8.1wins | +0.04per pick | 52cpaid | +6.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x86fb…03d4backed SpVgg Greuther Fürth | 80c | 39.5$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.6 | 85 | 47.1%40 W · 45 L | -8.0wins | -0.09per pick | 57cpaid | -22.3%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xd809…6542backed SpVgg Greuther Fürth | 80c | 39.5$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.6 | 177 | 49.7%88 W · 89 L | -10.4wins | -0.06per pick | 56cpaid | -18.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe6a3…04bebacked SpVgg Greuther Fürth | 80c | 39.5$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.6 | 77 | 51.9%40 W · 37 L | -5.3wins | -0.07per pick | 59cpaid | -15.8%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa42c…b22ebacked SpVgg Greuther Fürth | 80c | 39.5$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.6 | 22 | 40.9%9 W · 13 L | -3.3wins | -0.15per pick | 56cpaid | -35.8%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x82de…1337backed SpVgg Greuther Fürth | 80c | 39.5$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.6 | 111 | 48.6%54 W · 57 L | -5.4wins | -0.05per pick | 54cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xae7b…aec1backed SpVgg Greuther Fürth | 80c | 39.5$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.6 | 19 | 63.2%12 W · 7 L | +0.8wins | +0.04per pick | 59cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2302…d6d2backed SpVgg Greuther Fürth | 80c | 39.5$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.6 | 186 | 44.1%82 W · 104 L | -10.9wins | -0.06per pick | 50cpaid | -20.5%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa4e8…ff03backed SpVgg Greuther Fürth | 80c | 39.5$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.6 | 34 | 64.7%22 W · 12 L | +2.6wins | +0.08per pick | 57cpaid | +19.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfb51…082dbacked SpVgg Greuther Fürth | 80c | 39.5$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.6 | 205 | 48.3%99 W · 106 L | -10.0wins | -0.05per pick | 53cpaid | -11.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbe02…5fb3backed SpVgg Greuther Fürth | 80c | 39.5$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.6 | 55 | 56.4%31 W · 24 L | +3.3wins | +0.06per pick | 50cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb5bd…b891backed SpVgg Greuther Fürth | 80c | 39.5$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.6 | 73 | 49.3%36 W · 37 L | -4.8wins | -0.07per pick | 56cpaid | -17.1%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6569…7600backed SpVgg Greuther Fürth | 80c | 39.5$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.6 | 47 | 44.7%21 W · 26 L | -5.9wins | -0.13per pick | 57cpaid | -29.1%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xd51e…ac0cbacked SpVgg Greuther Fürth | 80c | 39.5$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.6 | 74 | 50%37 W · 37 L | -0.6wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7335…dd65backed SpVgg Greuther Fürth | 80c | 39.5$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.6 | 12 | 66.7%8 W · 4 L | +0.6wins | +0.05per pick | 62cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa975…42eebacked SpVgg Greuther Fürth | 80c | 31.25$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 50 | 52%26 W · 24 L | -0.7wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x06e7…3acabacked SpVgg Greuther Fürth | 80c | 31.25$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 77 | 49.4%38 W · 39 L | -4.4wins | -0.06per pick | 55cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9bd9…084fbacked SpVgg Greuther Fürth | 74c | 30$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.2 | 72 | 62.5%45 W · 27 L | +5.0wins | +0.07per pick | 56cpaid | +11.8%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7c15…9667backed SpVgg Greuther Fürth | 71c | 19$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.49 | 37 | 48.6%18 W · 19 L | -0.9wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Bundesliga and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: SC Paderborn 07 (-1.5)this page
- SpVgg Greuther Fürth vs. SC Paderborn 07: Both Teams to ScoreNo won
- SpVgg Greuther Fürth vs. SC Paderborn 07: O/U 1.5Over won
- SpVgg Greuther Fürth vs. SC Paderborn 07: O/U 2.5Under won
- SpVgg Greuther Fürth vs. SC Paderborn 07: O/U 3.5Under won
- SpVgg Greuther Fürth vs. SC Paderborn 07: O/U 4.5Under won
- Spread: SpVgg Greuther Fürth (-1.5)SC Paderborn 07 won
- Spread: SpVgg Greuther Fürth (-2.5)SC Paderborn 07 won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.