Bundesliga · resolved market
SpVgg Greuther Fürth vs. SC Paderborn 07: O/U 1.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xf07f43598b23b9fe1ec98ae550bb4a89b0f544b68500bb8d9c74151e9e9f26ef
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Overof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Bundesligaevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $14,019
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $17,438
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $14,019 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 47 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Bundesliga is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Bundesliga | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x507e…beaebacked Under | 18c | 1,543$275 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$274.56 | 1,355 | 50.9%690 W · 665 L | +12.7wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Over | 57c | 1,253$715 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$538.16 | 2,538 | 39.8%1,009 W · 1,529 L | -8.1wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfe78…0319backed Under | 45c | 621.96$281 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$281.3 | 481 | 41.8%201 W · 280 L | -5.3wins | -0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -12.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Under | 37c | 557.64$204 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$204.36 | 3,284 | 42.6%1,399 W · 1,885 L | -74.0wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -18.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7ea5…de7bbacked Under | 17c | 545.8$92 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$92.24 | 1,681 | 45.2%759 W · 922 L | +6.8wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | -2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x74fc…9118backed Over | 79c | 538.89$426 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$113.17 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -36.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe0c8…a016backed Under | 21c | 538.89$113 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$113.17 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.21per pick | 21cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeab6…d4c6backed Under | 42c | 436.1$182 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$181.7 | 86 | 30.2%26 W · 60 L | -2.1wins | -0.02per pick | 33cpaid | -23.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3622…083dbacked Over | 53c | 386.63$203 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$183.61 | 14 | 50%7 W · 7 L | +0.4wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | +1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfce1…4f4cbacked Over | 58c | 346.45$201 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$145.35 | 49 | 71.4%35 W · 14 L | +7.3wins | +0.15per pick | 57cpaid | +43.1%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x30db…44e1backed Over | 58c | 346.45$201 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$145.35 | 68 | 60.3%41 W · 27 L | +2.1wins | +0.03per pick | 57cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2652…2a1dbacked Under | 37c | 302.52$112 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$111.72 | 782 | 48.8%382 W · 400 L | -28.1wins | -0.04per pick | 52cpaid | -12.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7d0c…a3b7backed Under | 17c | 249.99$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.5 | 496 | 47.4%235 W · 261 L | +2.0wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2ce0…6599backed Under | 7c | 227.08$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.9 | 15 | 20%3 W · 12 L | +1.0wins | +0.06per pick | 14cpaid | +57.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfdf4…40fabacked Over | 71c | 211.27$150 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$61.27 | 53 | 64.2%34 W · 19 L | +1.7wins | +0.03per pick | 61cpaid | +3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0a1f…eb43backed Over | 54c | 203.7$110 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$93.7 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc02a…b43fbacked Over | 50c | 200$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$100 | 36 | 58.3%21 W · 15 L | +3.3wins | +0.09per pick | 49cpaid | +21.6%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x172d…6f3ebacked Over | 58c | 200$116 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$84 | 90 | 62.2%56 W · 34 L | +5.6wins | +0.06per pick | 56cpaid | +10.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xaa7e…6f50backed Over | 50c | 200$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$100 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.50per pick | 50cpaid | +100%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x649a…02afbacked Over | 70c | 200$140 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60 | 47 | 85.1%40 W · 7 L | +5.6wins | +0.12per pick | 73cpaid | +16.5%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x8afa…28f0backed Over | 71c | 194$138 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56.26 | 35 | 54.3%19 W · 16 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 54cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd01c…7f9dbacked Under | 17c | 189.06$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.14 | 481 | 46.4%223 W · 258 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9df6…c33bbacked Over | 64c | 187.45$120 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$67.48 | 22 | 63.6%14 W · 8 L | +2.8wins | +0.13per pick | 51cpaid | +25.1%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x77bc…b91bbacked Under | 42c | 181.58$77 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$76.89 | 1,305 | 40.8%532 W · 773 L | -42.3wins | -0.03per pick | 44cpaid | -21.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc291…5d74backed Under | 18c | 153.69$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.9 | 817 | 32.8%268 W · 549 L | -11.2wins | -0.01per pick | 34cpaid | -12.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0040…9eb8backed Over | 67c | 149.99$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.5 | 225 | 62.2%140 W · 85 L | +4.3wins | +0.02per pick | 60cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4a4b…bbcabacked Over | 54c | 125$67 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$57.9 | 346 | 55.5%192 W · 154 L | +9.8wins | +0.03per pick | 53cpaid | +4.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1f62…76f6backed Under | 17c | 124.99$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.25 | 636 | 45.1%287 W · 349 L | +5.2wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb4c9…a454backed Under | 18c | 114.28$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.57 | 40 | 42.5%17 W · 23 L | -1.7wins | -0.04per pick | 47cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf2ba…4028backed Over | 68c | 100$68 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32 | 388 | 45.6%177 W · 211 L | +3.8wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0954…012abacked Over | 55c | 90.91$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.91 | 31 | 58.1%18 W · 13 L | +2.3wins | +0.07per pick | 51cpaid | +8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6236…1df8backed Over | 57c | 87.69$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.7 | 11 | 36.4%4 W · 7 L | -0.4wins | -0.04per pick | 40cpaid | -38.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1d94…9100backed Under | 47c | 83.6$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.11 | 762 | 34.8%265 W · 497 L | +9.4wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9e5c…d8e6backed Under | 16c | 75$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 237 | 45.6%108 W · 129 L | -2.0wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -13%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x25e3…b729backed Over | 50c | 72$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | +0.8wins | +0.10per pick | 53cpaid | +12.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x806b…cccabacked Over | 57c | 68.78$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.7 | 7 | 100%7 W · 0 L | +3.0wins | +0.42per pick | 58cpaid | +86.3%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xa178…11a2backed Over | 45c | 66.67$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.67 | 190 | 55.3%105 W · 85 L | +5.1wins | +0.03per pick | 53cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb18c…df51backed Over | 53c | 56.6$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.6 | 106 | 48.1%51 W · 55 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf497…5ce0backed Over | 69c | 50$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.5 | 117 | 44.4%52 W · 65 L | -4.2wins | -0.04per pick | 48cpaid | -11.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3880…ab7dbacked Over | 55c | 45.45$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.45 | 108 | 63%68 W · 40 L | +1.7wins | +0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7fb9…2772backed Over | 54c | 28$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.88 | 17 | 29.4%5 W · 12 L | -3.0wins | -0.17per pick | 47cpaid | -44%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x0a76…b30fbacked Over | 55c | 27.91$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.56 | 63 | 39.7%25 W · 38 L | -5.8wins | -0.09per pick | 49cpaid | -20.6%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xcf6a…08a7backed Over | 70c | 25$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.6 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.13per pick | 73cpaid | -19.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb63a…7637backed Over | 66c | 20$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.85 | 63 | 69.8%44 W · 19 L | +4.7wins | +0.08per pick | 62cpaid | +12.2%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9c78…e29bbacked Over | 66c | 20$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.8 | 50 | 66%33 W · 17 L | -0.6wins | -0.01per pick | 67cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1c6d…e91cbacked Over | 66c | 20$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.8 | 16 | 56.3%9 W · 7 L | -2.1wins | -0.13per pick | 69cpaid | -19.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9eae…98a5backed Over | 80c | 14$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2.8 | 94 | 68.1%64 W · 30 L | -3.2wins | -0.03per pick | 71cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Bundesliga and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- SpVgg Greuther Fürth vs. SC Paderborn 07: O/U 1.5this page
- SpVgg Greuther Fürth vs. SC Paderborn 07: Both Teams to ScoreNo won
- SpVgg Greuther Fürth vs. SC Paderborn 07: O/U 2.5Under won
- SpVgg Greuther Fürth vs. SC Paderborn 07: O/U 3.5Under won
- SpVgg Greuther Fürth vs. SC Paderborn 07: O/U 4.5Under won
- Spread: SC Paderborn 07 (-1.5)SC Paderborn 07 won
- Spread: SpVgg Greuther Fürth (-1.5)SC Paderborn 07 won
- Spread: SpVgg Greuther Fürth (-2.5)SC Paderborn 07 won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.