TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Bundesliga · resolved market

SC Freiburg vs. FC Bayern München: O/U 2.5

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Overof Over, Under
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Bundesligaevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$143,455
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$178,235

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $143,455 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 200 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Bundesliga is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Bundesliga
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0xfe78…0319backed Under49c10,951$5,365 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5,364.7648141.8%201 W · 280 L-5.3wins-0.01per pick43cpaid-12.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x204f…5e14backed Under47c10,220$4,842 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,841.873,28442.6%1,399 W · 1,885 L-74.0wins-0.02per pick45cpaid-18.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xb8be…3d54backed Under65c10,118$6,601 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6,601.1210%0 W · 1 L-0.7wins-0.65per pick65cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xb6d0…9b55backed Over43c9,130$3,930 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5,199.653953.8%21 W · 18 L+0.3wins+0.01per pick53cpaid-6.1%equal weight510.00 edge/pick
0x7ea5…de7bbacked Under33c4,718$1,547 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,546.561,68145.2%759 W · 922 L+6.8wins0.00per pick45cpaid-2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf5d0…d9e8backed Over63c4,391$2,764 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,627.252458.3%14 W · 10 L+3.3wins+0.14per pick45cpaid+21.1%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x2412…b5a1backed Over67c3,844$2,573 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,271.346768.7%46 W · 21 L+6.2wins+0.09per pick59cpaid+12.7%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0xf658…655ebacked Under52c3,731$1,942 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,942.484351.2%22 W · 21 L-1.2wins-0.03per pick54cpaid-12.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x05e3…4b87backed Over54c3,704$2,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,703.833953.8%21 W · 18 L+1.7wins+0.04per pick49cpaid+20.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xf164…8fa4backed Under31c3,618$1,132 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,131.764658.7%27 W · 19 L+2.5wins+0.05per pick53cpaid+18.6%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xc7fa…f6dfbacked Over51c3,366$1,721 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,645.311145.5%5 W · 6 L+1.0wins+0.09per pick36cpaid+12.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x479e…91c3backed Under64c2,949$1,891 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,890.61333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.9wins-0.32per pick65cpaid-40.1%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x2005…75eabacked Over44c2,771$1,213 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,558.22,53839.8%1,009 W · 1,529 L-8.1wins0.00per pick40cpaid-11.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8e5a…154cbacked Over56c2,514$1,408 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,106.18955.1%49 W · 40 L+4.4wins+0.05per pick50cpaid+11.9%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xec59…bb35backed Over66c2,253$1,487 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$766.056762.7%42 W · 25 L+2.2wins+0.03per pick59cpaid+8.2%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x8873…09fcbacked Over53c2,212$1,166 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,046.261241.7%5 W · 7 L-1.6wins-0.14per pick55cpaid-29.8%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xd90d…cf07backed Over44c2,187$970 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,217.41837.5%3 W · 5 L+1.0wins+0.12per pick25cpaid+326.7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x7f29…f03dbacked Over62c1,916$1,192 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$723.219856.1%55 W · 43 L+3.2wins+0.03per pick53cpaid+11.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xf2f6…679ebacked Over68c1,442$981 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$461.55955.6%5 W · 4 L+0.6wins+0.06per pick49cpaid+32%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x507e…beaebacked Under52c1,356$702 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$702.241,35550.9%690 W · 665 L+12.7wins+0.01per pick50cpaid-2.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x12f9…74babacked Over53c1,215$644 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$570.939476.6%72 W · 22 L+16.8wins+0.18per pick59cpaid+49.4%equal weight66+0.14 edge/pick
0x01c7…e995backed Under53c1,127$592 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$592.151,01344.5%451 W · 562 L-8.2wins-0.01per pick45cpaid-20.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x7409…65a6backed Over53c1,100$583 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$517.075964.4%38 W · 21 L+2.4wins+0.04per pick60cpaid+11.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x3242…0e0bbacked Over45c1,064$479 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$585.04933.3%3 W · 6 L-0.7wins-0.08per pick41cpaid-28.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xbf21…be19backed Under55c1,011$555 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$555.432860.7%17 W · 11 L+3.6wins+0.13per pick48cpaid+15.5%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x0656…4d9bbacked Under1c999.99$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13333%1 W · 32 L0.0wins0.00per pick3cpaid-69.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x77bc…b91bbacked Over51c917.28$466 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$451.191,30540.8%532 W · 773 L-42.3wins-0.03per pick44cpaid-21.6%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x0176…910ebacked Over54c900.37$486 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$414.172850%14 W · 14 L-0.4wins-0.01per pick51cpaid-4.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xba8d…009dbacked Over58c897.56$517 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$380.356532.3%21 W · 44 L-1.2wins-0.02per pick34cpaid+7.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xcfe6…49f8backed Over43c887.86$384 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$503.5222157%126 W · 95 L+10.6wins+0.05per pick52cpaid+6.1%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x74d0…de45backed Under45c886.26$399 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$398.824445.5%20 W · 24 L-0.9wins-0.02per pick48cpaid-9%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x693e…1e67backed Over70c838.96$587 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$251.69250%1 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.21per pick71cpaid-28.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x10b0…8525backed Over60c804.88$481 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$324.1116850%84 W · 84 L-0.6wins0.00per pick50cpaid+3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x49ca…5944backed Over62c788.06$489 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$299.469067.8%61 W · 29 L+4.4wins+0.05per pick63cpaid+5.9%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xcb14…5358backed Over69c749.98$517 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$232.495068%34 W · 16 L+4.9wins+0.10per pick58cpaid+15%equal weight57+0.07 edge/pick
0xd48a…6e90backed Over70c701.43$491 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$210.437967.1%53 W · 26 L+7.4wins+0.09per pick58cpaid+17.8%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0xd91a…211cbacked Over35c660.52$229 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$431.315024%12 W · 38 L-5.3wins-0.11per pick35cpaid-27.9%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x6814…a9e7backed Under51c652.99$333 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$333.2233938.1%129 W · 210 L-16.0wins-0.05per pick43cpaid-24.3%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xd092…342abacked Over68c649.06$441 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$207.718759.4%111 W · 76 L-1.2wins-0.01per pick60cpaid-0.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xd809…6542backed Under50c574.61$289 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$289.1917749.7%88 W · 89 L-10.4wins-0.06per pick56cpaid-18.4%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x1399…48c8backed Over34c542.43$184 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$358.0112460.5%75 W · 49 L+19.9wins+0.16per pick44cpaid+46.3%equal weight65+0.13 edge/pick
0xff79…a52abacked Over50c500$250 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$25010552.4%55 W · 50 L+4.7wins+0.05per pick48cpaid+16.1%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x5c14…68f3backed Under4c500$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20230%0 W · 23 L-1.1wins-0.05per pick5cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x8ae5…4f22backed Over56c500$280 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2202479.2%19 W · 5 L+2.9wins+0.12per pick67cpaid+12.9%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x04e3…69d1backed Under55c497.2$273 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$273.46633.3%2 W · 4 L-1.1wins-0.19per pick52cpaid-45.1%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x3763…345fbacked Over53c485.9$258 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$228.37366.7%2 W · 1 L+1.0wins+0.32per pick34cpaid+72%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x1cdd…e595backed Over38c476.23$182 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$293.9222221.6%48 W · 174 L-34.2wins-0.15per pick37cpaid-50.3%equal weight35-0.14 edge/pick
0x3b7c…4cbfbacked Over45c470$212 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$258.5771.4%5 W · 2 L+2.2wins+0.31per pick40cpaid+127.3%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0xa35f…b58fbacked Over40c469.91$188 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$281.9510642.5%45 W · 61 L+6.1wins+0.06per pick37cpaid+16.4%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x6619…703ebacked Over66c445.27$294 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$151.3918958.2%110 W · 79 L-6.5wins-0.03per pick62cpaid-2%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x1cb4…3839backed Under44c442.92$195 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$194.88450%2 W · 2 L-0.5wins-0.12per pick62cpaid-19%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x1c0a…cbc9backed Over48c411.74$198 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$214.1633.3%2 W · 4 L-0.7wins-0.11per pick45cpaid-13.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xd01c…7f9dbacked Under30c401.98$121 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$121.1248146.4%223 W · 258 L+0.1wins0.00per pick46cpaid+1.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa697…59d5backed Under32c400$128 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12829855.4%165 W · 133 L+11.2wins+0.04per pick52cpaid+7.9%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x8fef…5946backed Over67c392.81$264 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$129.111471.4%10 W · 4 L+1.6wins+0.11per pick60cpaid+47.9%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x3880…ab7dbacked Over64c382.19$245 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$137.5910863%68 W · 40 L+1.7wins+0.02per pick61cpaid-1.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x3248…8ba9backed Over63c380$239 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$140.6580%4 W · 1 L+0.9wins+0.19per pick61cpaid+26.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x2fcb…78cfbacked Over50c350$175 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1753461.8%21 W · 13 L+4.2wins+0.12per pick49cpaid+28.4%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x5905…a34cbacked Over64c313.66$201 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$113.052365.2%15 W · 8 L+0.6wins+0.03per pick62cpaid+12%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x172d…6f3ebacked Over57c300$171 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1299062.2%56 W · 34 L+5.6wins+0.06per pick56cpaid+10.4%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x2099…4a6fbacked Over66c293.88$194 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$99.922050%10 W · 10 L+0.4wins+0.02per pick48cpaid+8.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xadb9…ef55backed Under61c292.3$177 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$177.194163.4%26 W · 15 L+2.6wins+0.06per pick57cpaid+20.4%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x2ca6…6a20backed Over50c291$146 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$145.52951.7%15 W · 14 L+0.6wins+0.02per pick50cpaid+4.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x53eb…90ebbacked Under33c290.85$96 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$95.981414.3%2 W · 12 L-1.9wins-0.14per pick28cpaid-58.3%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x86fb…03d4backed Under59c285.99$167 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$167.318547.1%40 W · 45 L-8.0wins-0.09per pick57cpaid-22.3%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0xfb51…082dbacked Under59c285.88$167 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$167.3120548.3%99 W · 106 L-10.0wins-0.05per pick53cpaid-11.7%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x85c6…367dbacked Over34c285.09$96 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$189.371435.7%5 W · 9 L-0.6wins-0.04per pick40cpaid+11%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x6945…873dbacked Over70c280.57$196 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$84.176149.2%30 W · 31 L-5.3wins-0.09per pick58cpaid-16.6%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0xb1cc…1958backed Over52c275.17$142 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$133.131764.7%11 W · 6 L0.0wins0.00per pick65cpaid+7.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x234b…f36dbacked Over70c271.34$190 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$81.45846.6%27 W · 31 L-3.1wins-0.05per pick52cpaid-15%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x8c0d…b612backed Over51c266.44$136 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$130.5614260.6%86 W · 56 L-1.0wins-0.01per pick61cpaid-1.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x1f62…76f6backed Under30c265.88$81 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$80.6263645.1%287 W · 349 L+5.2wins+0.01per pick44cpaid+1.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x9e19…1495backed Over65c263.22$171 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$92.132373.9%17 W · 6 L+2.7wins+0.12per pick62cpaid+17.3%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x02b6…8f5fbacked Over68c259.18$177 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$82.091580%12 W · 3 L+2.0wins+0.13per pick67cpaid+41.4%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x3622…083dbacked Over42c254.24$107 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$147.461450%7 W · 7 L+0.4wins+0.03per pick47cpaid+1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xb5bd…b891backed Under62c221.26$137 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$136.947349.3%36 W · 37 L-4.8wins-0.07per pick56cpaid-17.1%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x0d54…6c91backed Under46c210.35$97 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$96.761553.3%8 W · 7 L+0.2wins+0.01per pick52cpaid-1.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x42df…bb2fbacked Over46c210.35$97 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$113.595834.5%20 W · 38 L+5.1wins+0.09per pick26cpaid+43.6%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xd60c…2b06backed Over35c204.1$71 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$132.7516056.9%91 W · 69 L+13.3wins+0.08per pick49cpaid+22.5%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x2d6a…8addbacked Under34c204.1$69 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$69.3942046.4%195 W · 225 L-10.1wins-0.02per pick49cpaid-8.9%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xc0fb…ec4fbacked Over48c201.83$97 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$104.954639.1%18 W · 28 L+2.1wins+0.04per pick35cpaid+19.9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xfa01…f0a7backed Over70c200$140 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6017055.3%94 W · 76 L-0.8wins0.00per pick56cpaid-9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4a4b…bbcabacked Over54c199.97$107 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$92.9834655.5%192 W · 154 L+9.8wins+0.03per pick53cpaid+4.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x2652…2a1dbacked Under42c192.97$81 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$80.7478248.8%382 W · 400 L-28.1wins-0.04per pick52cpaid-12.2%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xfbb5…2b6abacked Over51c192.22$98 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$94.1926433.3%88 W · 176 L+4.3wins+0.02per pick32cpaid+5.8%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xaa0f…574cbacked Under60c189.06$113 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$112.983751.4%19 W · 18 L-3.1wins-0.08per pick60cpaid-17.5%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xef18…4d70backed Over34c186.43$63 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$123.0516464%105 W · 59 L+28.5wins+0.17per pick47cpaid+49.2%equal weight67+0.15 edge/pick
0xaf4b…52c0backed Over69c185$128 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$57.351100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.31per pick69cpaid+44.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xcf73…0215backed Under34c180.56$61 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$61.3933047.3%156 W · 174 L+3.7wins+0.01per pick46cpaid-2.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xe911…3d4ebacked Under38c176.72$67 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$66.849143.2%212 W · 279 L-1.3wins0.00per pick43cpaid+22.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9ed9…9949backed Over69c176.71$122 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$54.784360.5%26 W · 17 L+2.1wins+0.05per pick56cpaid+5.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x5cd9…51d0backed Over34c175.18$59 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$115.722853.6%15 W · 13 L+3.3wins+0.12per pick42cpaid+53.1%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x4f1f…f5eabacked Under40c173.52$69 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$69.415536.4%20 W · 35 L-3.0wins-0.05per pick42cpaid-16.5%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x7eee…d930backed Over41c159.58$65 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$94.15683.3%5 W · 1 L+1.1wins+0.18per pick65cpaid+39%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x200f…7a96backed Under32c159.29$51 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$50.831,08350.8%550 W · 533 L+8.2wins+0.01per pick50cpaid+2.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x13fc…bf77backed Over68c151.45$103 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$48.466100%6 W · 0 L+2.0wins+0.34per pick66cpaid+50.9%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x0c99…0c88backed Under35c150$52 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$51.9320645.6%94 W · 112 L-3.0wins-0.01per pick47cpaid-7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x32f2…7830backed Over53c150$79 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$70.72272.7%16 W · 6 L+4.0wins+0.18per pick54cpaid+49.1%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0xce71…54c9backed Over33c148.77$49 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$99.68366.7%2 W · 1 L+1.0wins+0.35per pick32cpaid+116%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xb581…1b9cbacked Over66c148.42$98 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$50.462470.8%17 W · 7 L+3.4wins+0.14per pick57cpaid+21.2%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Bundesliga and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 9 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.