TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Bundesliga · resolved market

Spread: FC Bayern München (-1.5)

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
SC Freiburgof FC Bayern München, SC Freiburg
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Bundesligaevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$78,640
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$76,557

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $78,640 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 158 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Bundesliga is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Bundesliga
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x9ba8…cdb3backed SC Freiburg56c23,812$13,335 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$10,477.43742.9%3 W · 4 L-0.9wins-0.13per pick56cpaid-30.3%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x4408…1b6abacked FC Bayern München36c19,101$6,857 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6,856.623743.2%16 W · 21 L+0.2wins+0.01per pick43cpaid-7.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x204f…5e14backed SC Freiburg64c16,028$10,286 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5,741.433,28442.6%1,399 W · 1,885 L-74.0wins-0.02per pick45cpaid-18.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x1467…4372backed FC Bayern München46c5,000$2,300 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,3004264.3%27 W · 15 L+3.3wins+0.08per pick56cpaid+16.2%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x2005…75eabacked SC Freiburg68c4,743$3,243 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,499.472,53839.8%1,009 W · 1,529 L-8.1wins0.00per pick40cpaid-11.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6323…9feebacked SC Freiburg54c3,602$1,945 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,657.141060%6 W · 4 L+1.0wins+0.10per pick50cpaid+16.1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x84f7…ade1backed FC Bayern München44c3,569$1,570 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,570.2318545.9%85 W · 100 L+1.3wins+0.01per pick45cpaid+7.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xd06a…22a6backed FC Bayern München44c3,420$1,505 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,50510%0 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.44per pick44cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xb272…ee5abacked FC Bayern München27c1,771$478 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$478.1425%1 W · 3 L0.0wins-0.01per pick26cpaid-32.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xba8d…009dbacked FC Bayern München36c1,596$579 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$579.496532.3%21 W · 44 L-1.2wins-0.02per pick34cpaid+7.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x37c1…c53abacked FC Bayern München44c1,309$576 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$575.966465.6%42 W · 22 L+8.0wins+0.13per pick53cpaid+22.8%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0xb2fe…7558backed SC Freiburg54c1,206$651 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$554.66450%2 W · 2 L+0.1wins+0.02per pick48cpaid-0.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb6ae…4df8backed FC Bayern München44c1,123$494 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$494.14456.8%25 W · 19 L+3.9wins+0.09per pick48cpaid+15.2%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x4b49…0397backed FC Bayern München43c1,096$471 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$471.445168.6%35 W · 16 L+3.8wins+0.07per pick61cpaid+11.4%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xa697…59d5backed SC Freiburg56c1,052$585 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$467.3129855.4%165 W · 133 L+11.2wins+0.04per pick52cpaid+7.9%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xfb51…082dbacked SC Freiburg63c1,031$646 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$384.8120548.3%99 W · 106 L-10.0wins-0.05per pick53cpaid-11.7%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x87bb…01b9backed FC Bayern München38c1,014$385 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$385.122552%13 W · 12 L+1.0wins+0.04per pick48cpaid+44.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x8511…ed83backed FC Bayern München48c1,009$484 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$484.4475%3 W · 1 L+0.8wins+0.19per pick56cpaid+29.1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x5e30…acbfbacked SC Freiburg57c897.24$511 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$385.819459.6%56 W · 38 L+6.2wins+0.07per pick53cpaid+13.1%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x4844…32c9backed FC Bayern München44c878.55$387 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$386.562934.5%10 W · 19 L-4.2wins-0.14per pick49cpaid-29.5%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0x74e0…af4bbacked FC Bayern München11c860.55$95 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$94.66333.3%1 W · 2 L+0.4wins+0.12per pick21cpaid+14.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xd48a…6e90backed SC Freiburg57c857.46$487 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$370.427967.1%53 W · 26 L+7.4wins+0.09per pick58cpaid+17.8%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x1c83…6f40backed FC Bayern München39c854.81$333 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$333.376546.2%30 W · 35 L+2.5wins+0.04per pick42cpaid+9.1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x86fb…03d4backed SC Freiburg63c815.89$518 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$297.888547.1%40 W · 45 L-8.0wins-0.09per pick57cpaid-22.3%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x6814…a9e7backed FC Bayern München37c797.59$295 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$294.8133938.1%129 W · 210 L-16.0wins-0.05per pick43cpaid-24.3%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xf439…bf9cbacked FC Bayern München44c773.12$340 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$340.173647.2%17 W · 19 L-0.7wins-0.02per pick49cpaid-8.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x47c6…be32backed FC Bayern München44c758.43$334 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$333.7140%0 W · 4 L-1.3wins-0.34per pick34cpaid-100%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x82de…1337backed FC Bayern München44c556.92$245 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$245.2711148.6%54 W · 57 L-5.4wins-0.05per pick54cpaid-7.5%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x4676…1639backed FC Bayern München44c549.09$242 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$241.64134.1%14 W · 27 L-4.1wins-0.10per pick44cpaid-24.5%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x2373…a1f3backed FC Bayern München44c548.76$242 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$241.636952.2%36 W · 33 L+0.2wins0.00per pick52cpaid+3.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb5bd…b891backed SC Freiburg63c536.77$338 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$198.447349.3%36 W · 37 L-4.8wins-0.07per pick56cpaid-17.1%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x1f62…76f6backed FC Bayern München40c500$200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20063645.1%287 W · 349 L+5.2wins+0.01per pick44cpaid+1.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xfbb5…2b6abacked FC Bayern München44c494.18$217 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$217.4426433.3%88 W · 176 L+4.3wins+0.02per pick32cpaid+5.8%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x4103…9b9ebacked FC Bayern München40c455.17$183 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$182.752536%9 W · 16 L-2.3wins-0.09per pick45cpaid-17.9%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x2e6c…e09cbacked FC Bayern München44c446.96$197 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$196.6611049.1%54 W · 56 L-4.4wins-0.04per pick53cpaid-9.3%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xadb9…ef55backed SC Freiburg58c430.04$250 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$180.484163.4%26 W · 15 L+2.6wins+0.06per pick57cpaid+20.4%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x1c70…b25ebacked SC Freiburg57c427.28$244 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$183.733246.9%15 W · 17 L-3.1wins-0.10per pick57cpaid-28.5%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x4192…d6aabacked FC Bayern München38c420$160 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$159.61163.6%7 W · 4 L+1.6wins+0.14per pick49cpaid+36.1%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xa46d…d8e5backed FC Bayern München38c420$160 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$159.61266.7%8 W · 4 L+1.9wins+0.16per pick50cpaid+38.5%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xf009…43d0backed FC Bayern München47c412$194 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$193.641266.7%8 W · 4 L+2.9wins+0.24per pick42cpaid+56%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x6496…09d0backed FC Bayern München47c412$194 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$193.64540%2 W · 3 L+0.1wins+0.01per pick39cpaid-17.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa35f…b58fbacked FC Bayern München33c373.84$123 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$123.3710642.5%45 W · 61 L+6.1wins+0.06per pick37cpaid+16.4%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xd81f…6b75backed FC Bayern München47c349.98$164 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$164.4914447.9%69 W · 75 L+0.8wins+0.01per pick47cpaid-1.1%equal weight510.00 edge/pick
0xbec5…8f77backed FC Bayern München40c337.4$135 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$134.96650%3 W · 3 L+0.7wins+0.11per pick39cpaid+26.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x0828…5cfebacked FC Bayern München37c316.46$116 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$116.29771.4%5 W · 2 L+1.6wins+0.23per pick49cpaid+56.3%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x21f5…035cbacked FC Bayern München38c305.4$116 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$115.52250%1 W · 1 L+0.2wins+0.08per pick42cpaid+9.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x7d0c…a3b7backed FC Bayern München41c300$123 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12349647.4%235 W · 261 L+2.0wins0.00per pick47cpaid+1.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x25c5…0817backed FC Bayern München26c285.21$74 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$74.15333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.05per pick38cpaid-39.4%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0x835c…8e3bbacked FC Bayern München37c267.34$98 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$98.241844.4%8 W · 10 L-1.1wins-0.06per pick51cpaid-17.4%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x2ee7…4c1abacked FC Bayern München44c258.12$114 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$113.573961.5%24 W · 15 L+2.8wins+0.07per pick54cpaid+27.5%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x0756…38c9backed FC Bayern München48c256.33$123 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$123.04728.6%2 W · 5 L-1.3wins-0.18per pick47cpaid-39.2%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x2508…e25cbacked FC Bayern München38c255.6$97 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$97.08333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.7wins-0.22per pick55cpaid-48.7%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x3f5c…9e02backed FC Bayern München37c252.96$93 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$92.74771.4%5 W · 2 L+1.6wins+0.23per pick49cpaid+56.3%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xa85b…eb0ebacked FC Bayern München44c237.78$105 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$104.625940.7%24 W · 35 L-4.9wins-0.08per pick49cpaid-13.4%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0xd810…2eb8backed FC Bayern München38c228.15$87 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$86.72850%14 W · 14 L0.0wins0.00per pick50cpaid+4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x948b…a188backed FC Bayern München44c219.64$97 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$96.6418554.1%100 W · 85 L-4.2wins-0.02per pick56cpaid+0.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xe6a3…04bebacked FC Bayern München44c219.64$97 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$96.647751.9%40 W · 37 L-5.3wins-0.07per pick59cpaid-15.8%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xd51e…ac0cbacked FC Bayern München44c219.64$97 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$96.647450%37 W · 37 L-0.6wins-0.01per pick51cpaid-2.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xb4fc…e772backed FC Bayern München44c219.64$97 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$96.643360.6%20 W · 13 L+0.6wins+0.02per pick59cpaid-2.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x7299…31f3backed FC Bayern München44c219.64$97 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$96.643551.4%18 W · 17 L+2.8wins+0.08per pick43cpaid+10.8%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xfce1…4f4cbacked FC Bayern München44c210.82$93 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$92.764971.4%35 W · 14 L+7.3wins+0.15per pick57cpaid+43.1%equal weight61+0.10 edge/pick
0x8ea8…077dbacked FC Bayern München37c206.24$76 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$75.67475%3 W · 1 L+1.2wins+0.30per pick45cpaid+58.8%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x0ccc…dbcdbacked FC Bayern München24c200$48 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$485839.7%23 W · 35 L+2.3wins+0.04per pick36cpaid+10.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xa93e…0a8cbacked FC Bayern München49c197.84$97 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$96.944660.9%28 W · 18 L+5.3wins+0.11per pick49cpaid+20.6%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0xb31b…edcabacked FC Bayern München40c197.62$79 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$79.051442.9%6 W · 8 L-1.0wins-0.07per pick50cpaid-22.2%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x2652…2a1dbacked SC Freiburg63c194.43$122 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$72.1878248.8%382 W · 400 L-28.1wins-0.04per pick52cpaid-12.2%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xd208…cbcdbacked FC Bayern München44c192.33$85 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$84.622759.3%16 W · 11 L+1.4wins+0.05per pick54cpaid+8.9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x6835…1976backed FC Bayern München45c179.83$81 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$80.9220545.9%94 W · 111 L+1.6wins+0.01per pick45cpaid-3.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x30db…44e1backed FC Bayern München44c167.58$74 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$73.736860.3%41 W · 27 L+2.1wins+0.03per pick57cpaid+3.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xd809…6542backed FC Bayern München44c162.55$72 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$71.5417749.7%88 W · 89 L-10.4wins-0.06per pick56cpaid-18.4%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xe414…c341backed FC Bayern München44c159.09$70 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$705942.4%25 W · 34 L-4.5wins-0.08per pick50cpaid-15.4%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x26dd…0249backed FC Bayern München44c153.4$68 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$67.676844.1%30 W · 38 L-4.7wins-0.07per pick51cpaid-12.7%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x1b8f…f31bbacked FC Bayern München44c149.07$66 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$65.591850%9 W · 9 L+0.3wins+0.02per pick48cpaid-0.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x1968…8c66backed FC Bayern München44c146.11$64 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$64.29850%4 W · 4 L-0.4wins-0.05per pick55cpaid-4.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x63c5…1ecbbacked SC Freiburg53c145.77$77 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$68.516541.5%27 W · 38 L-4.5wins-0.07per pick49cpaid-12%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x0fde…0258backed SC Freiburg78c143.92$112 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$31.667750.6%39 W · 38 L-2.6wins-0.03per pick54cpaid-5%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x8afa…28f0backed SC Freiburg78c143.92$112 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$31.663554.3%19 W · 16 L0.0wins0.00per pick54cpaid-2.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xec56…1259backed FC Bayern München38c142.15$54 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$53.53944.4%4 W · 5 L+0.8wins+0.08per pick36cpaid-0.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x0ea3…71a1backed SC Freiburg65c136.98$89 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$47.922433.3%8 W · 16 L-3.7wins-0.15per pick49cpaid-20.5%equal weight42-0.08 edge/pick
0x200f…7a96backed FC Bayern München41c135.35$55 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$55.311,08350.8%550 W · 533 L+8.2wins+0.01per pick50cpaid+2.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x0c99…0c88backed FC Bayern München13c133.84$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16.920645.6%94 W · 112 L-3.0wins-0.01per pick47cpaid-7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe6fb…ee11backed FC Bayern München38c133.46$51 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$50.713948.7%19 W · 20 L-3.1wins-0.08per pick57cpaid-19.4%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xe911…3d4ebacked FC Bayern München25c127.14$32 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$31.7949143.2%212 W · 279 L-1.3wins0.00per pick43cpaid+22.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x3b54…db07backed FC Bayern München44c123$54 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$54.122227.3%6 W · 16 L-1.3wins-0.06per pick33cpaid-15.9%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xdb03…9732backed SC Freiburg60c121.61$73 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$48.41966.7%6 W · 3 L+0.8wins+0.09per pick58cpaid+11.1%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x1002…1ef5backed FC Bayern München40c120.5$48 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$48.22839.3%11 W · 17 L+0.1wins0.00per pick39cpaid+11.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x71c1…e358backed FC Bayern München41c117.63$48 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$48.2318840.4%76 W · 112 L+7.9wins+0.04per pick36cpaid+10.2%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x7c8a…02acbacked FC Bayern München44c114.61$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$50.433655.6%20 W · 16 L+0.3wins+0.01per pick55cpaid+24.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x231f…254bbacked FC Bayern München44c109.82$48 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$48.321030%3 W · 7 L-1.9wins-0.19per pick49cpaid-43.8%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0x0198…37e6backed FC Bayern München44c109.82$48 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$48.32520%1 W · 4 L-1.5wins-0.31per pick51cpaid-66.1%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x9107…46d6backed FC Bayern München46c105.55$48 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$48.38366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.4wins+0.12per pick55cpaid+13.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xef5c…6ababacked SC Freiburg62c102.34$64 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$38.621553.3%8 W · 7 L-0.7wins-0.05per pick58cpaid-1.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x4f1f…f5eabacked FC Bayern München40c100$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$405536.4%20 W · 35 L-3.0wins-0.05per pick42cpaid-16.5%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x04b3…ad8dbacked FC Bayern München40c100$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4011060%66 W · 44 L+13.6wins+0.12per pick48cpaid+26%equal weight61+0.10 edge/pick
0x9f26…b8ccbacked FC Bayern München43c100$43 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$431546.7%7 W · 8 L+0.3wins+0.02per pick45cpaid-3.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x7ea5…de7bbacked SC Freiburg59c99.12$58 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$40.911,68145.2%759 W · 922 L+6.8wins0.00per pick45cpaid-2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7479…e171backed SC Freiburg65c96.77$63 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$33.796355.6%35 W · 28 L+3.3wins+0.05per pick50cpaid+12.1%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x9691…c6e7backed FC Bayern München44c96.64$43 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$42.521838.9%7 W · 11 L+0.1wins+0.01per pick38cpaid-2.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x3319…ba79backed FC Bayern München37c90.95$33 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$33.221346.2%6 W · 7 L+0.4wins+0.03per pick43cpaid-6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x8584…6b7dbacked FC Bayern München44c88.86$39 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$39.12147.6%10 W · 11 L-1.6wins-0.08per pick55cpaid-12.3%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Bundesliga and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 9 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.