Bundesliga · resolved market
Spread: SC Freiburg (-1.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x133bb43fcf598f0d2497a84d7990980d191d597746109dd2096a2b3520c015f7
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- FC Bayern Münchenof SC Freiburg, FC Bayern München
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Bundesligaevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $25,070
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $29,694
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $25,070 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 29 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Bundesliga is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Bundesliga | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x2005…75eabacked SC Freiburg | 8c | 5,880$458 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$457.56 | 2,538 | 39.8%1,009 W · 1,529 L | -8.1wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed SC Freiburg | 7c | 910.59$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63.13 | 3,284 | 42.6%1,399 W · 1,885 L | -74.0wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -18.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x77bc…b91bbacked SC Freiburg | 6c | 524.58$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.24 | 1,305 | 40.8%532 W · 773 L | -42.3wins | -0.03per pick | 44cpaid | -21.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9232…d5c6backed SC Freiburg | 5c | 495$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.26 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0502…42f1backed SC Freiburg | 5c | 491$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.06 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x223a…0202backed SC Freiburg | 5c | 473$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.18 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa2a7…9857backed SC Freiburg | 5c | 470$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.03 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9de4…fdacbacked SC Freiburg | 5c | 469$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.98 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x353c…11b0backed SC Freiburg | 5c | 467$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.88 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfe27…94c4backed SC Freiburg | 5c | 464$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.74 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc3bf…58f6backed SC Freiburg | 5c | 456$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.34 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x81c8…f8fcbacked SC Freiburg | 5c | 456$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.34 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xec51…4741backed SC Freiburg | 5c | 455$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.3 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x60c7…aeddbacked SC Freiburg | 5c | 453$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.2 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x53ce…e71bbacked SC Freiburg | 5c | 448$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.95 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x235d…4be3backed SC Freiburg | 5c | 442$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.66 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7ea5…de7bbacked SC Freiburg | 5c | 439.9$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.99 | 1,681 | 45.2%759 W · 922 L | +6.8wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | -2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x270c…ac6abacked SC Freiburg | 5c | 437$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.41 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xed23…1130backed SC Freiburg | 5c | 410$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.45 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdb9a…1c4fbacked SC Freiburg | 5c | 410$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.45 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3efa…9027backed SC Freiburg | 6c | 401.68$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.47 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6ab0…c871backed SC Freiburg | 5c | 400$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.4 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa258…85d9backed SC Freiburg | 5c | 400$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.4 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x79ff…14a4backed SC Freiburg | 5c | 383.78$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.81 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x05f8…d87fbacked FC Bayern München | 40c | 212.31$85 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$127.4 | 8 | 100%8 W · 0 L | +4.3wins | +0.54per pick | 46cpaid | +228.8%equal weight | 64+0.13 edge/pick |
| 0x4a4b…bbcabacked FC Bayern München | 42c | 154.99$65 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$90 | 346 | 55.5%192 W · 154 L | +9.8wins | +0.03per pick | 53cpaid | +4.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdbdd…a5debacked SC Freiburg | 38c | 154.03$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.87 | 486 | 58.6%285 W · 201 L | +44.5wins | +0.09per pick | 49cpaid | +33%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xbfd7…f0bfbacked FC Bayern München | 77c | 116.43$90 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.43 | 215 | 40.9%88 W · 127 L | -15.5wins | -0.07per pick | 48cpaid | -24.3%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xe911…3d4ebacked FC Bayern München | 46c | 49.41$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.59 | 491 | 43.2%212 W · 279 L | -1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | +22.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Bundesliga and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 9 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: SC Freiburg (-1.5)this page
- SC Freiburg vs. FC Bayern München: Both Teams to ScoreYes won
- SC Freiburg vs. FC Bayern München: O/U 1.5Over won
- SC Freiburg vs. FC Bayern München: O/U 2.5Over won
- SC Freiburg vs. FC Bayern München: O/U 3.5Over won
- SC Freiburg vs. FC Bayern München: O/U 4.5Over won
- Spread: FC Bayern München (-1.5)SC Freiburg won
- Spread: FC Bayern München (-2.5)SC Freiburg won
- Spread: SC Freiburg (-2.5)FC Bayern München won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.