TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Bundesliga · resolved market

SC Freiburg vs. FC Bayern München: O/U 1.5

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Overof Over, Under
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Bundesligaevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$200,682
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$264,896

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $200,682 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 78 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Bundesliga is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Bundesliga
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x204f…5e14backed Under17c63,586$11,031 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11,031.493,28442.6%1,399 W · 1,885 L-74.0wins-0.02per pick45cpaid-18.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x224a…d4bfbacked Over80c35,154$27,986 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7,168.181283.3%10 W · 2 L+1.9wins+0.16per pick68cpaid+23.7%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xf164…8fa4backed Under15c16,272$2,483 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,483.394658.7%27 W · 19 L+2.5wins+0.05per pick53cpaid+18.6%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x11cf…2674backed Over62c5,955$3,692 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,262.911181.8%9 W · 2 L+2.2wins+0.20per pick61cpaid+34.9%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x2005…75eabacked Under31c4,958$1,552 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,551.812,53839.8%1,009 W · 1,529 L-8.1wins0.00per pick40cpaid-11.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xdbdd…a5debacked Under21c4,930$1,035 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,035.3748658.6%285 W · 201 L+44.5wins+0.09per pick49cpaid+33%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0xfe78…0319backed Under35c4,191$1,481 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,480.8148141.8%201 W · 280 L-5.3wins-0.01per pick43cpaid-12.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xd809…6542backed Under20c2,115$423 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$422.917749.7%88 W · 89 L-10.4wins-0.06per pick56cpaid-18.4%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xb5bd…b891backed Under20c1,938$387 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$387.27349.3%36 W · 37 L-4.8wins-0.07per pick56cpaid-17.1%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x86fb…03d4backed Under20c1,936$387 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$387.148547.1%40 W · 45 L-8.0wins-0.09per pick57cpaid-22.3%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0xfb51…082dbacked Under20c1,936$387 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$387.1420548.3%99 W · 106 L-10.0wins-0.05per pick53cpaid-11.7%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xa3e9…2732backed Over77c1,552$1,195 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$356.93475%3 W · 1 L+0.5wins+0.13per pick62cpaid+22.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x5c14…68f3backed Under3c1,520$51 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$51.21230%0 W · 23 L-1.1wins-0.05per pick5cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x77bc…b91bbacked Under17c1,298$222 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$221.731,30540.8%532 W · 773 L-42.3wins-0.03per pick44cpaid-21.6%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xd10c…0645backed Over75c1,190$894 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$296.21333.3%1 W · 2 L0.0wins0.00per pick34cpaid-55.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xff79…a52abacked Over80c1,000$800 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$20010552.4%55 W · 50 L+4.7wins+0.05per pick48cpaid+16.1%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xbb0b…3790backed Under3c941.3$28 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$28.242718.5%5 W · 22 L+1.5wins+0.06per pick13cpaid-10.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x87c8…9cfbbacked Over79c801.84$633 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$168.39450%2 W · 2 L-0.5wins-0.12per pick62cpaid-34.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x3c80…93b5backed Over62c788.06$489 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$299.465538.2%21 W · 34 L-5.3wins-0.10per pick48cpaid-19.2%equal weight43-0.07 edge/pick
0x56ff…81a0backed Over69c741.06$509 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$231.783966.7%26 W · 13 L+1.4wins+0.04per pick63cpaid+12.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x507e…beaebacked Under30c720$213 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$212.821,35550.9%690 W · 665 L+12.7wins+0.01per pick50cpaid-2.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x6d73…f538backed Over78c632.56$493 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$139.16366.7%2 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.06per pick72cpaid-9.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x32f2…7830backed Over76c603.03$460 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$143.12272.7%16 W · 6 L+4.0wins+0.18per pick54cpaid+49.1%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0x0ea3…71a1backed Under19c532.42$99 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$98.622433.3%8 W · 16 L-3.7wins-0.15per pick49cpaid-20.5%equal weight42-0.08 edge/pick
0x6496…09d0backed Under20c476$95 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$95.2540%2 W · 3 L+0.1wins+0.01per pick39cpaid-17.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x30db…44e1backed Under20c464.86$93 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$92.976860.3%41 W · 27 L+2.1wins+0.03per pick57cpaid+3.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x324c…93d9backed Under3c350$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11240%0 W · 24 L-0.5wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x62ff…5058backed Over63c310.41$196 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$114.85666.7%4 W · 2 L+1.0wins+0.16per pick51cpaid+63.9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x4a4b…bbcabacked Over62c300$186 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$11434655.5%192 W · 154 L+9.8wins+0.03per pick53cpaid+4.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x53eb…90ebbacked Under24c278.37$67 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$66.811414.3%2 W · 12 L-1.9wins-0.14per pick28cpaid-58.3%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x186e…3ba3backed Over78c253.03$197 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$55.672100%2 W · 0 L+0.4wins+0.22per pick78cpaid+28.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x8165…97b8backed Under16c236.92$38 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$37.813946.2%18 W · 21 L-3.2wins-0.08per pick54cpaid-26.2%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xfdf4…40fabacked Over64c229.31$147 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$82.555364.2%34 W · 19 L+1.7wins+0.03per pick61cpaid+3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xbc33…6c65backed Under15c220.9$33 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$33.1340%0 W · 4 L-0.7wins-0.19per pick19cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xfdc7…b45abacked Over77c199.45$155 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$44.89250%1 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.02per pick52cpaid-35.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa21f…adddbacked Over77c176.75$136 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$40.653070%21 W · 9 L+1.2wins+0.04per pick66cpaid+8.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x7ea5…de7bbacked Under14c165.02$23 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$22.61,68145.2%759 W · 922 L+6.8wins0.00per pick45cpaid-2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0154…30f7backed Over68c144.24$98 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$46.161250%6 W · 6 L+0.1wins+0.01per pick49cpaid-7.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8e59…cc2ebacked Under14c135.49$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18.971127.3%3 W · 8 L-3.1wins-0.28per pick56cpaid-47.6%equal weight40-0.09 edge/pick
0x2652…2a1dbacked Under28c133.12$37 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$37.0278248.8%382 W · 400 L-28.1wins-0.04per pick52cpaid-12.2%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x9cb4…8285backed Under11c132.55$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.5855058.7%323 W · 227 L+23.5wins+0.04per pick54cpaid+4.7%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xaa0f…574cbacked Under38c130.92$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$49.753751.4%19 W · 18 L-3.1wins-0.08per pick60cpaid-17.5%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x0d9e…f53abacked Over78c126.51$99 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$27.831471.4%10 W · 4 L+0.7wins+0.05per pick66cpaid+7.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x5565…4b3bbacked Under19c125.92$24 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$23.6720153.7%108 W · 93 L+5.4wins+0.03per pick51cpaid-0.5%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x1df5…1e18backed Over64c110.07$70 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$39.637657.9%44 W · 32 L+7.6wins+0.10per pick48cpaid+16.1%equal weight58+0.08 edge/pick
0x999d…5b2ebacked Over65c100$65 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$34.6333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.7wins-0.22per pick55cpaid-49%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xf2ba…4028backed Over70c98.2$69 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$29.4638845.6%177 W · 211 L+3.8wins+0.01per pick45cpaid+1.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x0c84…89f6backed Under15c93.11$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.9710%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.15per pick15cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xadb9…ef55backed Over61c88.67$54 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$34.574163.4%26 W · 15 L+2.6wins+0.06per pick57cpaid+20.4%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x234b…f36dbacked Under12c85.78$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.295846.6%27 W · 31 L-3.1wins-0.05per pick52cpaid-15%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xd066…9eecbacked Over62c78.81$49 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$29.95757.1%4 W · 3 L+0.1wins+0.01per pick56cpaid-0.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5c18…c208backed Over63c77.6$49 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$28.715461.1%33 W · 21 L+3.8wins+0.07per pick54cpaid+18.3%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xd410…1d61backed Over63c77.6$49 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$28.71475%3 W · 1 L+0.4wins+0.11per pick64cpaid+19%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xade7…9d34backed Over70c71.81$50 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$21.513366.7%22 W · 11 L+2.8wins+0.09per pick58cpaid+16.2%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x8b1f…4eebbacked Over74c70$52 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$18.28660.5%52 W · 34 L-1.2wins-0.01per pick62cpaid-4.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x7409…65a6backed Over72c67.87$49 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$19.165964.4%38 W · 21 L+2.4wins+0.04per pick60cpaid+11.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x4666…3a55backed Under20c67.53$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.3110%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.20per pick20cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x69e7…7cb7backed Over62c63.05$39 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$23.9611751.3%60 W · 57 L-9.2wins-0.08per pick59cpaid-18.6%equal weight43-0.07 edge/pick
0x4a87…fb21backed Under39c61.76$24 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$24.093441.2%14 W · 20 L-2.4wins-0.07per pick48cpaid-22.1%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xef18…4d70backed Over64c57.26$37 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$20.6116464%105 W · 59 L+28.5wins+0.17per pick47cpaid+49.2%equal weight67+0.15 edge/pick
0x6a3c…84c5backed Over68c50.37$34 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$16.121963.2%12 W · 7 L-0.7wins-0.04per pick67cpaid-0.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x7479…e171backed Over79c50.29$40 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$10.626355.6%35 W · 28 L+3.3wins+0.05per pick50cpaid+12.1%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xbe02…5fb3backed Under21c50.17$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.545556.4%31 W · 24 L+3.3wins+0.06per pick50cpaid+12.3%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x9e19…1495backed Over61c47.03$29 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$18.342373.9%17 W · 6 L+2.7wins+0.12per pick62cpaid+17.3%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0xfac0…3086backed Over62c43$27 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$16.341080%8 W · 2 L+1.2wins+0.12per pick68cpaid+20%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x0c99…0c88backed Under27c41.7$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.3120645.6%94 W · 112 L-3.0wins-0.01per pick47cpaid-7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xcb38…f78dbacked Under38c40.88$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.531656.3%9 W · 7 L+0.5wins+0.03per pick53cpaid+48%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x1399…48c8backed Over64c39.7$25 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$14.2912460.5%75 W · 49 L+19.9wins+0.16per pick44cpaid+46.3%equal weight65+0.13 edge/pick
0xecbb…a8c2backed Over76c38.42$29 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$9.222060%12 W · 8 L+0.7wins+0.03per pick57cpaid-3.4%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xd5f2…2512backed Over62c35.04$22 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$13.322552%13 W · 12 L+0.9wins+0.04per pick48cpaid+9.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x9782…0a6ebacked Over63c30.98$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$11.462100%2 W · 0 L+0.9wins+0.43per pick57cpaid+75.9%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x0687…77bfbacked Over64c30.58$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$11.011080%8 W · 2 L+4.6wins+0.46per pick34cpaid+220.8%equal weight64+0.13 edge/pick
0xe1d6…fa72backed Over65c30$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$10.5862.5%5 W · 3 L0.0wins0.00per pick63cpaid-2.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4ff0…271bbacked Over68c29.99$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$9.74266.7%28 W · 14 L+2.4wins+0.06per pick61cpaid+9.3%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x2c46…dac9backed Over64c28.76$18 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$10.3639558.7%232 W · 163 L+27.4wins+0.07per pick52cpaid+15.4%equal weight57+0.07 edge/pick
0x49b1…fd38backed Over80c25$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$51100%1 W · 0 L+0.2wins+0.20per pick80cpaid+25%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x0a2a…4be1backed Over63c23.19$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8.58683.3%5 W · 1 L+1.2wins+0.21per pick63cpaid+36.6%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xab35…118dbacked Over62c20$12 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7.6366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.3wins+0.10per pick57cpaid+14.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Bundesliga and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 9 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.