Bundesliga · resolved market
SC Freiburg vs. FC Bayern München: O/U 1.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x24ea426db00b7077a5751e16c2255b85888ca7bb507f831c7f267d243847ecb6
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Overof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Bundesligaevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $200,682
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $264,896
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $200,682 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 78 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Bundesliga is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Bundesliga | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Under | 17c | 63,586$11,031 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11,031.49 | 3,284 | 42.6%1,399 W · 1,885 L | -74.0wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -18.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x224a…d4bfbacked Over | 80c | 35,154$27,986 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7,168.18 | 12 | 83.3%10 W · 2 L | +1.9wins | +0.16per pick | 68cpaid | +23.7%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf164…8fa4backed Under | 15c | 16,272$2,483 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,483.39 | 46 | 58.7%27 W · 19 L | +2.5wins | +0.05per pick | 53cpaid | +18.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x11cf…2674backed Over | 62c | 5,955$3,692 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,262.91 | 11 | 81.8%9 W · 2 L | +2.2wins | +0.20per pick | 61cpaid | +34.9%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Under | 31c | 4,958$1,552 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,551.81 | 2,538 | 39.8%1,009 W · 1,529 L | -8.1wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdbdd…a5debacked Under | 21c | 4,930$1,035 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,035.37 | 486 | 58.6%285 W · 201 L | +44.5wins | +0.09per pick | 49cpaid | +33%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xfe78…0319backed Under | 35c | 4,191$1,481 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,480.81 | 481 | 41.8%201 W · 280 L | -5.3wins | -0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -12.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd809…6542backed Under | 20c | 2,115$423 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$422.9 | 177 | 49.7%88 W · 89 L | -10.4wins | -0.06per pick | 56cpaid | -18.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb5bd…b891backed Under | 20c | 1,938$387 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$387.2 | 73 | 49.3%36 W · 37 L | -4.8wins | -0.07per pick | 56cpaid | -17.1%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x86fb…03d4backed Under | 20c | 1,936$387 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$387.14 | 85 | 47.1%40 W · 45 L | -8.0wins | -0.09per pick | 57cpaid | -22.3%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xfb51…082dbacked Under | 20c | 1,936$387 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$387.14 | 205 | 48.3%99 W · 106 L | -10.0wins | -0.05per pick | 53cpaid | -11.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e9…2732backed Over | 77c | 1,552$1,195 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$356.93 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.5wins | +0.13per pick | 62cpaid | +22.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5c14…68f3backed Under | 3c | 1,520$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.21 | 23 | 0%0 W · 23 L | -1.1wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x77bc…b91bbacked Under | 17c | 1,298$222 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$221.73 | 1,305 | 40.8%532 W · 773 L | -42.3wins | -0.03per pick | 44cpaid | -21.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd10c…0645backed Over | 75c | 1,190$894 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$296.21 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 34cpaid | -55.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xff79…a52abacked Over | 80c | 1,000$800 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$200 | 105 | 52.4%55 W · 50 L | +4.7wins | +0.05per pick | 48cpaid | +16.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbb0b…3790backed Under | 3c | 941.3$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.24 | 27 | 18.5%5 W · 22 L | +1.5wins | +0.06per pick | 13cpaid | -10.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x87c8…9cfbbacked Over | 79c | 801.84$633 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$168.39 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.12per pick | 62cpaid | -34.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3c80…93b5backed Over | 62c | 788.06$489 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$299.46 | 55 | 38.2%21 W · 34 L | -5.3wins | -0.10per pick | 48cpaid | -19.2%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x56ff…81a0backed Over | 69c | 741.06$509 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$231.78 | 39 | 66.7%26 W · 13 L | +1.4wins | +0.04per pick | 63cpaid | +12.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked Under | 30c | 720$213 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$212.82 | 1,355 | 50.9%690 W · 665 L | +12.7wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6d73…f538backed Over | 78c | 632.56$493 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$139.16 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.06per pick | 72cpaid | -9.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x32f2…7830backed Over | 76c | 603.03$460 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$143.1 | 22 | 72.7%16 W · 6 L | +4.0wins | +0.18per pick | 54cpaid | +49.1%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x0ea3…71a1backed Under | 19c | 532.42$99 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$98.62 | 24 | 33.3%8 W · 16 L | -3.7wins | -0.15per pick | 49cpaid | -20.5%equal weight | 42-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x6496…09d0backed Under | 20c | 476$95 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$95.2 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 39cpaid | -17.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x30db…44e1backed Under | 20c | 464.86$93 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$92.97 | 68 | 60.3%41 W · 27 L | +2.1wins | +0.03per pick | 57cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x324c…93d9backed Under | 3c | 350$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 24 | 0%0 W · 24 L | -0.5wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x62ff…5058backed Over | 63c | 310.41$196 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$114.85 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +1.0wins | +0.16per pick | 51cpaid | +63.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4a4b…bbcabacked Over | 62c | 300$186 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$114 | 346 | 55.5%192 W · 154 L | +9.8wins | +0.03per pick | 53cpaid | +4.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x53eb…90ebbacked Under | 24c | 278.37$67 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66.81 | 14 | 14.3%2 W · 12 L | -1.9wins | -0.14per pick | 28cpaid | -58.3%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x186e…3ba3backed Over | 78c | 253.03$197 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55.67 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.22per pick | 78cpaid | +28.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8165…97b8backed Under | 16c | 236.92$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.81 | 39 | 46.2%18 W · 21 L | -3.2wins | -0.08per pick | 54cpaid | -26.2%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xfdf4…40fabacked Over | 64c | 229.31$147 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$82.55 | 53 | 64.2%34 W · 19 L | +1.7wins | +0.03per pick | 61cpaid | +3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbc33…6c65backed Under | 15c | 220.9$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.13 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.7wins | -0.19per pick | 19cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfdc7…b45abacked Over | 77c | 199.45$155 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.89 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -35.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa21f…adddbacked Over | 77c | 176.75$136 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.65 | 30 | 70%21 W · 9 L | +1.2wins | +0.04per pick | 66cpaid | +8.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7ea5…de7bbacked Under | 14c | 165.02$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.6 | 1,681 | 45.2%759 W · 922 L | +6.8wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | -2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0154…30f7backed Over | 68c | 144.24$98 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.16 | 12 | 50%6 W · 6 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -7.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8e59…cc2ebacked Under | 14c | 135.49$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.97 | 11 | 27.3%3 W · 8 L | -3.1wins | -0.28per pick | 56cpaid | -47.6%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x2652…2a1dbacked Under | 28c | 133.12$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.02 | 782 | 48.8%382 W · 400 L | -28.1wins | -0.04per pick | 52cpaid | -12.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9cb4…8285backed Under | 11c | 132.55$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.58 | 550 | 58.7%323 W · 227 L | +23.5wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xaa0f…574cbacked Under | 38c | 130.92$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.75 | 37 | 51.4%19 W · 18 L | -3.1wins | -0.08per pick | 60cpaid | -17.5%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0d9e…f53abacked Over | 78c | 126.51$99 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.83 | 14 | 71.4%10 W · 4 L | +0.7wins | +0.05per pick | 66cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5565…4b3bbacked Under | 19c | 125.92$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.67 | 201 | 53.7%108 W · 93 L | +5.4wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1df5…1e18backed Over | 64c | 110.07$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.63 | 76 | 57.9%44 W · 32 L | +7.6wins | +0.10per pick | 48cpaid | +16.1%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x999d…5b2ebacked Over | 65c | 100$65 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.6 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.7wins | -0.22per pick | 55cpaid | -49%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf2ba…4028backed Over | 70c | 98.2$69 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.46 | 388 | 45.6%177 W · 211 L | +3.8wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0c84…89f6backed Under | 15c | 93.11$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.97 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.15per pick | 15cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xadb9…ef55backed Over | 61c | 88.67$54 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.57 | 41 | 63.4%26 W · 15 L | +2.6wins | +0.06per pick | 57cpaid | +20.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x234b…f36dbacked Under | 12c | 85.78$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.29 | 58 | 46.6%27 W · 31 L | -3.1wins | -0.05per pick | 52cpaid | -15%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd066…9eecbacked Over | 62c | 78.81$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.95 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 56cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5c18…c208backed Over | 63c | 77.6$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.71 | 54 | 61.1%33 W · 21 L | +3.8wins | +0.07per pick | 54cpaid | +18.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd410…1d61backed Over | 63c | 77.6$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.71 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.11per pick | 64cpaid | +19%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xade7…9d34backed Over | 70c | 71.81$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.51 | 33 | 66.7%22 W · 11 L | +2.8wins | +0.09per pick | 58cpaid | +16.2%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8b1f…4eebbacked Over | 74c | 70$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.2 | 86 | 60.5%52 W · 34 L | -1.2wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7409…65a6backed Over | 72c | 67.87$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.16 | 59 | 64.4%38 W · 21 L | +2.4wins | +0.04per pick | 60cpaid | +11.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4666…3a55backed Under | 20c | 67.53$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.31 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.20per pick | 20cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x69e7…7cb7backed Over | 62c | 63.05$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.96 | 117 | 51.3%60 W · 57 L | -9.2wins | -0.08per pick | 59cpaid | -18.6%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x4a87…fb21backed Under | 39c | 61.76$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.09 | 34 | 41.2%14 W · 20 L | -2.4wins | -0.07per pick | 48cpaid | -22.1%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xef18…4d70backed Over | 64c | 57.26$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.61 | 164 | 64%105 W · 59 L | +28.5wins | +0.17per pick | 47cpaid | +49.2%equal weight | 67+0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x6a3c…84c5backed Over | 68c | 50.37$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.12 | 19 | 63.2%12 W · 7 L | -0.7wins | -0.04per pick | 67cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7479…e171backed Over | 79c | 50.29$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.62 | 63 | 55.6%35 W · 28 L | +3.3wins | +0.05per pick | 50cpaid | +12.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbe02…5fb3backed Under | 21c | 50.17$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.54 | 55 | 56.4%31 W · 24 L | +3.3wins | +0.06per pick | 50cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9e19…1495backed Over | 61c | 47.03$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.34 | 23 | 73.9%17 W · 6 L | +2.7wins | +0.12per pick | 62cpaid | +17.3%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xfac0…3086backed Over | 62c | 43$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.34 | 10 | 80%8 W · 2 L | +1.2wins | +0.12per pick | 68cpaid | +20%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0c99…0c88backed Under | 27c | 41.7$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.31 | 206 | 45.6%94 W · 112 L | -3.0wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcb38…f78dbacked Under | 38c | 40.88$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.53 | 16 | 56.3%9 W · 7 L | +0.5wins | +0.03per pick | 53cpaid | +48%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1399…48c8backed Over | 64c | 39.7$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.29 | 124 | 60.5%75 W · 49 L | +19.9wins | +0.16per pick | 44cpaid | +46.3%equal weight | 65+0.13 edge/pick |
| 0xecbb…a8c2backed Over | 76c | 38.42$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.22 | 20 | 60%12 W · 8 L | +0.7wins | +0.03per pick | 57cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd5f2…2512backed Over | 62c | 35.04$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.32 | 25 | 52%13 W · 12 L | +0.9wins | +0.04per pick | 48cpaid | +9.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9782…0a6ebacked Over | 63c | 30.98$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.46 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.9wins | +0.43per pick | 57cpaid | +75.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0687…77bfbacked Over | 64c | 30.58$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.01 | 10 | 80%8 W · 2 L | +4.6wins | +0.46per pick | 34cpaid | +220.8%equal weight | 64+0.13 edge/pick |
| 0xe1d6…fa72backed Over | 65c | 30$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.5 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 63cpaid | -2.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4ff0…271bbacked Over | 68c | 29.99$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.7 | 42 | 66.7%28 W · 14 L | +2.4wins | +0.06per pick | 61cpaid | +9.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2c46…dac9backed Over | 64c | 28.76$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.36 | 395 | 58.7%232 W · 163 L | +27.4wins | +0.07per pick | 52cpaid | +15.4%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x49b1…fd38backed Over | 80c | 25$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.20per pick | 80cpaid | +25%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0a2a…4be1backed Over | 63c | 23.19$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.58 | 6 | 83.3%5 W · 1 L | +1.2wins | +0.21per pick | 63cpaid | +36.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xab35…118dbacked Over | 62c | 20$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.6 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.10per pick | 57cpaid | +14.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Bundesliga and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 9 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- SC Freiburg vs. FC Bayern München: O/U 1.5this page
- SC Freiburg vs. FC Bayern München: Both Teams to ScoreYes won
- SC Freiburg vs. FC Bayern München: O/U 2.5Over won
- SC Freiburg vs. FC Bayern München: O/U 3.5Over won
- SC Freiburg vs. FC Bayern München: O/U 4.5Over won
- Spread: FC Bayern München (-1.5)SC Freiburg won
- Spread: FC Bayern München (-2.5)SC Freiburg won
- Spread: SC Freiburg (-1.5)FC Bayern München won
- Spread: SC Freiburg (-2.5)FC Bayern München won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.