Bundesliga · resolved market
Spread: FC Bayern München (-2.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x55858fffeaa41ae50bba7c1baf67785e805cadea478a1e95f54edc977a2164b5
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- SC Freiburgof FC Bayern München, SC Freiburg
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Bundesligaevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $5,300
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $4,835
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $5,300 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 21 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Bundesliga is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Bundesliga | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x9ba8…cdb3backed SC Freiburg | 73c | 2,360$1,723 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$637.09 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | -0.9wins | -0.13per pick | 56cpaid | -30.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0273…1867backed FC Bayern München | 27c | 1,137$307 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$306.94 | 40 | 25%10 W · 30 L | -1.5wins | -0.04per pick | 29cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb272…ee5abacked FC Bayern München | 27c | 973.87$263 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$262.95 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 26cpaid | -32.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xba8d…009dbacked FC Bayern München | 23c | 546.63$126 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$125.57 | 65 | 32.3%21 W · 44 L | -1.2wins | -0.02per pick | 34cpaid | +7.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe414…c341backed FC Bayern München | 26c | 380.84$98 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$98.04 | 59 | 42.4%25 W · 34 L | -4.5wins | -0.08per pick | 50cpaid | -15.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1c70…b25ebacked SC Freiburg | 74c | 332.55$246 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$86.46 | 32 | 46.9%15 W · 17 L | -3.1wins | -0.10per pick | 57cpaid | -28.5%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed SC Freiburg | 79c | 291.02$231 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60.37 | 3,284 | 42.6%1,399 W · 1,885 L | -74.0wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -18.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd81f…6b75backed FC Bayern München | 27c | 204.76$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.28 | 144 | 47.9%69 W · 75 L | +0.8wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfbb5…2b6abacked FC Bayern München | 26c | 202.15$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.56 | 264 | 33.3%88 W · 176 L | +4.3wins | +0.02per pick | 32cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9a5e…81ffbacked FC Bayern München | 27c | 150.34$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.59 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +1.0wins | +0.34per pick | 32cpaid | +90.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6814…a9e7backed FC Bayern München | 24c | 150$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36 | 339 | 38.1%129 W · 210 L | -16.0wins | -0.05per pick | 43cpaid | -24.3%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4740…fa66backed FC Bayern München | 15c | 92.06$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.95 | 20 | 30%6 W · 14 L | -0.9wins | -0.05per pick | 35cpaid | +12.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x200f…7a96backed FC Bayern München | 25c | 60$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 1,083 | 50.8%550 W · 533 L | +8.2wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x26dd…0249backed SC Freiburg | 74c | 59.96$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.53 | 68 | 44.1%30 W · 38 L | -4.7wins | -0.07per pick | 51cpaid | -12.7%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd809…6542backed SC Freiburg | 74c | 59.96$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.53 | 177 | 49.7%88 W · 89 L | -10.4wins | -0.06per pick | 56cpaid | -18.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf715…bbf0backed FC Bayern München | 22c | 57.19$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.58 | 40 | 15%6 W · 34 L | -2.4wins | -0.06per pick | 21cpaid | -43.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xca3c…a789backed FC Bayern München | 27c | 53.12$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.34 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.13per pick | 37cpaid | +4.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x77bc…b91bbacked FC Bayern München | 22c | 52.57$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.73 | 1,305 | 40.8%532 W · 773 L | -42.3wins | -0.03per pick | 44cpaid | -21.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9759…cb52backed FC Bayern München | 27c | 38.25$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.33 | 19 | 21.1%4 W · 15 L | -1.7wins | -0.09per pick | 30cpaid | -38.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8941…83d7backed SC Freiburg | 75c | 23.64$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.91 | 53 | 64.2%34 W · 19 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 63cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3d84…4b14backed SC Freiburg | 74c | 21.55$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.6 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.26per pick | 74cpaid | +35.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Bundesliga and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 9 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: FC Bayern München (-2.5)this page
- SC Freiburg vs. FC Bayern München: Both Teams to ScoreYes won
- SC Freiburg vs. FC Bayern München: O/U 1.5Over won
- SC Freiburg vs. FC Bayern München: O/U 2.5Over won
- SC Freiburg vs. FC Bayern München: O/U 3.5Over won
- SC Freiburg vs. FC Bayern München: O/U 4.5Over won
- Spread: FC Bayern München (-1.5)SC Freiburg won
- Spread: SC Freiburg (-1.5)FC Bayern München won
- Spread: SC Freiburg (-2.5)FC Bayern München won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.