TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Bundesliga · resolved market

SC Freiburg vs. FC Bayern München: O/U 3.5

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Overof Over, Under
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Bundesligaevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$612,100
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$647,857

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $612,100 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 293 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Bundesliga is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Bundesliga
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x4924…3782backed Over45c326,937$146,692 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$180,245.662832.1%9 W · 19 L-5.1wins-0.18per pick50cpaid-34.7%equal weight39-0.10 edge/pick
0x37e4…c991backed Under56c150,000$84,500 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$84,499.924042.5%17 W · 23 L-1.5wins-0.04per pick46cpaid+28.7%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x2a2c…9bc1backed Under54c130,743$70,601 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$70,601.225945.8%27 W · 32 L+0.8wins+0.01per pick44cpaid+5.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x6d11…c449backed Over77c52,520$40,265 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$12,255.243548.6%17 W · 18 L+1.1wins+0.03per pick45cpaid+0.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x204f…5e14backed Under56c40,132$22,649 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$22,649.053,28442.6%1,399 W · 1,885 L-74.0wins-0.02per pick45cpaid-18.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x4d30…a42dbacked Over50c30,542$15,238 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$15,304.041560%9 W · 6 L+1.6wins+0.10per pick50cpaid+13.7%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x8a6c…0b3fbacked Over45c26,861$12,088 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$14,773.613636.1%13 W · 23 L-2.0wins-0.06per pick42cpaid-14.8%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x5c44…5eefbacked Under0c26,848$27 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$26.8530%0 W · 3 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xfe78…0319backed Under56c17,900$10,073 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10,073.3448141.8%201 W · 280 L-5.3wins-0.01per pick43cpaid-12.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x99e0…5052backed Under55c15,000$8,250 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$8,25010%0 W · 1 L-0.6wins-0.55per pick55cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x2005…75eabacked Under57c13,226$7,546 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$7,545.742,53839.8%1,009 W · 1,529 L-8.1wins0.00per pick40cpaid-11.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xfd29…77aebacked Over48c12,133$5,824 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6,309.36358.7%37 W · 26 L+5.5wins+0.09per pick50cpaid+16.5%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xadfa…324ebacked Under55c12,000$6,600 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6,6004540%18 W · 27 L-4.2wins-0.09per pick49cpaid-17.7%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0xf68a…5b1bbacked Under55c11,947$6,590 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6,590.4316652.4%87 W · 79 L+2.5wins+0.01per pick51cpaid+2.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x507e…beaebacked Under53c7,778$4,158 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,158.491,35550.9%690 W · 665 L+12.7wins+0.01per pick50cpaid-2.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x4408…1b6abacked Over42c6,336$2,661 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,674.993743.2%16 W · 21 L+0.2wins+0.01per pick43cpaid-7.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xec8d…dd71backed Under52c6,327$3,290 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,289.933836.8%14 W · 24 L-4.8wins-0.13per pick50cpaid-17.3%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0xc72d…fc21backed Under57c5,561$3,170 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,169.9250%0 W · 5 L-2.1wins-0.43per pick43cpaid-100%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x4337…8882backed Under55c5,555$3,055 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,055.253063.3%19 W · 11 L+6.8wins+0.23per pick41cpaid+50.6%equal weight64+0.12 edge/pick
0x3bcf…dc5cbacked Over43c5,109$2,197 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,912.181163.6%7 W · 4 L+2.5wins+0.23per pick41cpaid+44.5%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x1d82…3847backed Under54c4,509$2,435 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,434.64250%1 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.04per pick54cpaid-7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x86fb…03d4backed Under57c4,265$2,437 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,436.778547.1%40 W · 45 L-8.0wins-0.09per pick57cpaid-22.3%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0xf658…655ebacked Over51c3,811$1,941 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,870.364351.2%22 W · 21 L-1.2wins-0.03per pick54cpaid-12.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xa697…59d5backed Under55c3,586$1,987 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,987.1129855.4%165 W · 133 L+11.2wins+0.04per pick52cpaid+7.9%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xfb51…082dbacked Under59c3,530$2,083 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,083.0420548.3%99 W · 106 L-10.0wins-0.05per pick53cpaid-11.7%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x84f7…ade1backed Under51c2,818$1,449 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,449.4218545.9%85 W · 100 L+1.3wins+0.01per pick45cpaid+7.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xf5d0…d9e8backed Over43c2,688$1,156 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,532.112458.3%14 W · 10 L+3.3wins+0.14per pick45cpaid+21.1%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0xba67…4727backed Under57c2,500$1,425 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,42515747.1%74 W · 83 L+0.1wins0.00per pick47cpaid+3.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2f4c…39c0backed Under3c2,400$80 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$801612.5%2 W · 14 L+0.7wins+0.04per pick8cpaid+31.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xc922…2618backed Under55c2,000$1,100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,1009048.9%44 W · 46 L-2.3wins-0.03per pick51cpaid-7.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x4f42…8bbcbacked Over14c1,997$280 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,716.734447.7%21 W · 23 L+2.4wins+0.05per pick42cpaid+17.9%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xb5bd…b891backed Under52c1,859$971 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$971.357349.3%36 W · 37 L-4.8wins-0.07per pick56cpaid-17.1%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x9541…3b71backed Under69c1,552$1,071 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,071.1410%0 W · 1 L-0.7wins-0.69per pick69cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x82de…1337backed Under51c1,431$733 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$732.7211148.6%54 W · 57 L-5.4wins-0.05per pick54cpaid-7.5%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xadb9…ef55backed Under60c1,255$750 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$749.984163.4%26 W · 15 L+2.6wins+0.06per pick57cpaid+20.4%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x30db…44e1backed Under52c1,068$552 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$552.096860.3%41 W · 27 L+2.1wins+0.03per pick57cpaid+3.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x30a4…8441backed Under54c1,000$540 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5402962.1%18 W · 11 L+3.8wins+0.13per pick49cpaid+18.5%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x3b7c…4cbfbacked Over31c1,000$310 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$690771.4%5 W · 2 L+2.2wins+0.31per pick40cpaid+127.3%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0xa3d3…f2bcbacked Under54c986.5$538 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$537.588251.2%42 W · 40 L-0.6wins-0.01per pick52cpaid-3.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xd809…6542backed Under51c959.89$485 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$485.1417749.7%88 W · 89 L-10.4wins-0.06per pick56cpaid-18.4%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x1cdd…e595backed Over32c911.08$295 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$616.5322221.6%48 W · 174 L-34.2wins-0.15per pick37cpaid-50.3%equal weight35-0.14 edge/pick
0xfd66…fb6dbacked Over30c909.98$272 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$638.4111142.3%47 W · 64 L+6.3wins+0.06per pick37cpaid+20.2%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xbe56…593abacked Under10c900$90 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$902626.9%7 W · 19 L+3.7wins+0.14per pick13cpaid+128%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0xaacb…03b7backed Over44c870.55$387 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$483.89862.5%5 W · 3 L-0.2wins-0.02per pick65cpaid-0.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x9902…34b3backed Under55c867.18$476 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$476.252626.9%7 W · 19 L+0.2wins+0.01per pick26cpaid-25.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xce2b…08fabacked Under75c854.29$640 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$640.2338055.8%212 W · 168 L-0.9wins0.00per pick56cpaid+0.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa2dc…b624backed Over14c852.38$119 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$733.051735.3%6 W · 11 L+0.3wins+0.02per pick33cpaid+30.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x6814…a9e7backed Under48c794.19$384 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$383.8333938.1%129 W · 210 L-16.0wins-0.05per pick43cpaid-24.3%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x95ef…ff92backed Over18c765.92$138 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$628.064916.3%8 W · 41 L-0.8wins-0.02per pick18cpaid-14.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x01c7…e995backed Under58c753.02$435 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$435.311,01344.5%451 W · 562 L-8.2wins-0.01per pick45cpaid-20.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6265…0d9fbacked Over45c750.21$339 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$411.7475%3 W · 1 L+1.1wins+0.28per pick47cpaid+34.7%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xa85b…eb0ebacked Under52c744.26$388 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$388.275940.7%24 W · 35 L-4.9wins-0.08per pick49cpaid-13.4%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x959f…9e2fbacked Under68c722.51$490 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$490.3640%0 W · 4 L-1.5wins-0.38per pick38cpaid-100%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x10b0…8525backed Over44c716.74$318 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$398.8416850%84 W · 84 L-0.6wins0.00per pick50cpaid+3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xba8d…009dbacked Over45c696.27$317 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$379.616532.3%21 W · 44 L-1.2wins-0.02per pick34cpaid+7.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x8001…c76fbacked Over45c656.51$294 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$362.43475%3 W · 1 L+0.7wins+0.17per pick58cpaid+29.8%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x85c6…367dbacked Over15c632.67$95 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$537.771435.7%5 W · 9 L-0.6wins-0.04per pick40cpaid+11%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x2714…960fbacked Under50c582$291 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2915455.6%30 W · 24 L+1.4wins+0.03per pick53cpaid+3.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x234b…f36dbacked Under54c565.6$307 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$307.025846.6%27 W · 31 L-3.1wins-0.05per pick52cpaid-15%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xb61f…976abacked Under71c555.66$393 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$392.971770.6%12 W · 5 L+1.3wins+0.07per pick63cpaid+8.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xf277…9a5fbacked Under58c505.64$292 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$292.411643.8%7 W · 9 L-2.6wins-0.16per pick60cpaid-33.8%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x71da…bc9ebacked Over48c504.58$242 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$262.38757.1%4 W · 3 L+0.4wins+0.06per pick51cpaid+8%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xaa0f…574cbacked Under60c503.09$299 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$299.383751.4%19 W · 18 L-3.1wins-0.08per pick60cpaid-17.5%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x5c14…68f3backed Under4c500$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20230%0 W · 23 L-1.1wins-0.05per pick5cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xd90d…cf07backed Over20c500$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$400837.5%3 W · 5 L+1.0wins+0.12per pick25cpaid+326.7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x750b…609fbacked Under10c499.99$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$50911.1%1 W · 8 L+0.3wins+0.03per pick8cpaid+23.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x3bbd…1ec9backed Over49c465.31$228 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$237.311100%1 W · 0 L+0.5wins+0.51per pick49cpaid+104.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x4f2d…318bbacked Under8c456.93$37 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$37.14254%1 W · 24 L-1.0wins-0.04per pick8cpaid-81.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x4a89…8e52backed Under77c448.27$345 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$345.17333.3%1 W · 2 L-1.2wins-0.38per pick72cpaid-53.1%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x4192…d6aabacked Under50c420$210 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2101163.6%7 W · 4 L+1.6wins+0.14per pick49cpaid+36.1%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xa46d…d8e5backed Under50c420$210 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2101266.7%8 W · 4 L+1.9wins+0.16per pick50cpaid+38.5%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xe9e7…0febbacked Under55c413.67$228 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$227.522326.1%6 W · 17 L-3.1wins-0.13per pick40cpaid-45.8%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x3fb4…d481backed Over49c410.18$201 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$209.193959%23 W · 16 L+3.2wins+0.08per pick51cpaid+31.2%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xafc4…daa1backed Under10c400$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$403627.8%10 W · 26 L+5.0wins+0.14per pick14cpaid+88.8%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x0979…fc8abacked Under10c400$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$402429.2%7 W · 17 L+3.5wins+0.14per pick15cpaid+99%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x2d6a…8addbacked Under53c399.42$210 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$210.4542046.4%195 W · 225 L-10.1wins-0.02per pick49cpaid-8.9%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x6496…09d0backed Over49c395.67$194 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$201.79540%2 W · 3 L+0.1wins+0.01per pick39cpaid-17.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb619…5068backed Over47c394.66$185 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$209.175952.5%31 W · 28 L+5.5wins+0.09per pick43cpaid+20.1%equal weight57+0.07 edge/pick
0x2913…d241backed Over45c376.27$169 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$207.04475%3 W · 1 L+0.7wins+0.17per pick58cpaid+42.6%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xd810…2eb8backed Under50c370$185 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1852850%14 W · 14 L0.0wins0.00per pick50cpaid+4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xcf73…0215backed Under52c358.23$188 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$187.6333047.3%156 W · 174 L+3.7wins+0.01per pick46cpaid-2.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x200f…7a96backed Under52c352.97$184 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$183.661,08350.8%550 W · 533 L+8.2wins+0.01per pick50cpaid+2.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x5140…9951backed Under78c346.61$270 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$270.352365.2%15 W · 8 L+0.4wins+0.02per pick63cpaid-3.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xffea…5f0abacked Over35c342.29$121 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$220.811656.3%9 W · 7 L+2.9wins+0.18per pick38cpaid+74.9%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x3a15…52d6backed Under52c339.92$177 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$176.766752.2%35 W · 32 L-3.7wins-0.06per pick58cpaid-14.2%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x6619…703ebacked Over43c336.91$145 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$192.0418958.2%110 W · 79 L-6.5wins-0.03per pick62cpaid-2%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x07ac…ebeebacked Over13c327.93$42 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$285.92757.1%4 W · 3 L+0.9wins+0.13per pick45cpaid+78.9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xa0d9…07dcbacked Under79c320.87$253 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$252.7910%0 W · 1 L-0.8wins-0.79per pick79cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xf6a8…800dbacked Over48c312.38$150 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$162.441100%1 W · 0 L+0.5wins+0.52per pick48cpaid+108.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x0ea3…71a1backed Under57c310.17$178 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$178.082433.3%8 W · 16 L-3.7wins-0.15per pick49cpaid-20.5%equal weight42-0.08 edge/pick
0xc0fb…ec4fbacked Over45c301.01$135 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$165.634639.1%18 W · 28 L+2.1wins+0.04per pick35cpaid+19.9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xb44e…c2c6backed Under76c300.87$230 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$229.661258.3%7 W · 5 L-1.0wins-0.08per pick66cpaid-7.2%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xd218…b5c9backed Over13c300$39 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$26133737.4%126 W · 211 L-11.2wins-0.03per pick41cpaid-20.1%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xe735…4198backed Under54c300$162 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$162560%3 W · 2 L+0.5wins+0.10per pick50cpaid+27.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x666b…d240backed Under54c300$162 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$162560%3 W · 2 L+0.5wins+0.10per pick50cpaid+27.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x77bc…b91bbacked Under63c285.7$180 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$180.151,30540.8%532 W · 773 L-42.3wins-0.03per pick44cpaid-21.6%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xc249…8a61backed Over43c280.72$120 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$160.324240.5%17 W · 25 L-4.0wins-0.09per pick50cpaid-12.5%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0xc9b7…93ebbacked Under56c269.05$151 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$150.863161.3%19 W · 12 L+1.2wins+0.04per pick57cpaid+42.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x7c8a…02acbacked Under52c265.84$137 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$137.053655.6%20 W · 16 L+0.3wins+0.01per pick55cpaid+24.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xa396…0019backed Over44c264.01$116 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$148.041625%4 W · 12 L-0.8wins-0.05per pick30cpaid-15.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Bundesliga and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 9 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.