TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Bundesliga · resolved market

VfL Wolfsburg vs. FC Bayern München: O/U 3.5

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Underof Over, Under
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Bundesligaevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$68,909
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$73,081

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $68,909 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 135 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Bundesliga is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Bundesliga
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x2a91…c6b1backed Over59c11,819$6,982 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6,981.696761.2%41 W · 26 L+6.1wins+0.09per pick52cpaid+22.7%equal weight57+0.07 edge/pick
0x204f…5e14backed Under46c10,081$4,649 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5,431.843,28442.6%1,399 W · 1,885 L-74.0wins-0.02per pick45cpaid-18.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x6c74…bd4ebacked Over64c7,860$5,035 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5,035.22254.5%12 W · 10 L-0.3wins-0.01per pick56cpaid-2.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x77bc…b91bbacked Over64c5,451$3,486 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,486.391,30540.8%532 W · 773 L-42.3wins-0.03per pick44cpaid-21.6%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xdbdd…a5debacked Under39c4,394$1,703 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,690.7248658.6%285 W · 201 L+44.5wins+0.09per pick49cpaid+33%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0xec59…bb35backed Over63c3,900$2,460 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,459.996762.7%42 W · 25 L+2.2wins+0.03per pick59cpaid+8.2%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x3b5c…126ebacked Under36c3,003$1,084 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,919.0427138.4%104 W · 167 L-9.0wins-0.03per pick42cpaid-17%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xd146…9bf0backed Under37c3,000$1,110 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,8905133.3%17 W · 34 L-0.6wins-0.01per pick34cpaid-22%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x9c76…c926backed Under35c3,000$1,050 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,949.975870.7%41 W · 17 L+10.4wins+0.18per pick53cpaid+41.3%equal weight64+0.13 edge/pick
0xd871…6bbabacked Over62c2,686$1,665 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,665.241553.3%8 W · 7 L+1.2wins+0.08per pick45cpaid+55.6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xb8c4…7385backed Under38c2,555$965 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,589.6515742%66 W · 91 L+4.7wins+0.03per pick39cpaid+0.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x2005…75eabacked Over45c2,247$1,022 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,021.642,53839.8%1,009 W · 1,529 L-8.1wins0.00per pick40cpaid-11.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xefd4…51b1backed Under42c1,905$800 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,104.76540%2 W · 3 L-1.1wins-0.21per pick61cpaid-13.2%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x424e…263bbacked Under38c1,787$687 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,099.5728755.1%158 W · 129 L+12.3wins+0.04per pick51cpaid+8.3%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xa374…9709backed Under41c1,708$694 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,014.883050%15 W · 15 L+2.3wins+0.08per pick42cpaid+11.6%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x70d8…a237backed Over57c1,644$937 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$937.22857.1%16 W · 12 L+1.7wins+0.06per pick51cpaid+18.2%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xbb60…03ddbacked Over65c1,543$998 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$998.06250%1 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.15per pick65cpaid-24.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xb9ab…f282backed Over58c1,500$870 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$869.989854.1%53 W · 45 L+1.1wins+0.01per pick53cpaid+4.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x09f4…dac0backed Under42c1,353$562 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$791.322138.1%8 W · 13 L-2.0wins-0.09per pick47cpaid-19.3%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xadfb…c2efbacked Under41c1,238$510 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$728.0538646.9%181 W · 205 L-7.6wins-0.02per pick49cpaid-7.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x0346…52a5backed Over42c1,181$492 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$492.0428345.2%128 W · 155 L+6.0wins+0.02per pick43cpaid-5.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xc34b…9296backed Under37c1,003$371 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$632.023100%3 W · 0 L+1.4wins+0.48per pick52cpaid+112.7%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x422c…9840backed Over43c1,000$430 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4301833.3%6 W · 12 L-1.7wins-0.09per pick43cpaid-25.1%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xceee…d39ebacked Under39c1,000$390 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6102630.8%8 W · 18 L-3.2wins-0.12per pick43cpaid-23.9%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0xa664…f849backed Under39c1,000$390 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$610771.4%5 W · 2 L+2.1wins+0.30per pick42cpaid+42%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x6d3c…d294backed Under41c954.55$391 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$563.1869851.9%362 W · 336 L+22.3wins+0.03per pick49cpaid+9.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xf20f…3b33backed Under41c846.34$347 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$499.34250%1 W · 1 L+0.1wins+0.05per pick45cpaid+22%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1ab2…8fdabacked Under41c711.99$292 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$420.081428.6%4 W · 10 L-2.4wins-0.17per pick46cpaid-35.7%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0xdc29…383bbacked Under42c700$291 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4091827.8%5 W · 13 L-3.6wins-0.20per pick48cpaid-35.3%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0x325f…4511backed Under36c692.57$247 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$445.2453140.7%216 W · 315 L-13.3wins-0.03per pick43cpaid-10.7%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x9a54…7191backed Under42c691.59$290 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$401.12955.6%5 W · 4 L+0.7wins+0.07per pick48cpaid+15.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x734e…5ba1backed Under39c641.18$250 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$391.323100%3 W · 0 L+1.5wins+0.49per pick51cpaid+103.5%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x78bb…591fbacked Under41c640.7$263 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$378.01728.6%2 W · 5 L-1.3wins-0.18per pick46cpaid-34.8%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x7138…8c89backed Under41c547.46$225 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$32211338.9%44 W · 69 L-3.7wins-0.03per pick42cpaid-9.4%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x1eba…ff9cbacked Over31c500$155 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15590%0 W · 9 L-2.4wins-0.27per pick27cpaid-100%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x10b0…8525backed Over58c499.98$290 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$289.9916850%84 W · 84 L-0.6wins0.00per pick50cpaid+3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xdb83…1e50backed Under39c496.02$195 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$301.0926445.5%120 W · 144 L-2.7wins-0.01per pick46cpaid-7.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xcb37…7d86backed Over65c461.21$300 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$299.79250%1 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.16per pick66cpaid-24.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2d6a…8addbacked Under40c450$180 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$27042046.4%195 W · 225 L-10.1wins-0.02per pick49cpaid-8.9%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x6808…899bbacked Under42c439.5$186 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$253.51100%1 W · 0 L+0.6wins+0.58per pick42cpaid+136.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x9fd1…917ebacked Over34c396$135 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$134.6410%0 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.34per pick34cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x842a…7422backed Over64c390.52$251 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2513056.7%17 W · 13 L+1.5wins+0.05per pick52cpaid+10.6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xbd99…c06cbacked Over66c381.48$250 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2501258.3%7 W · 5 L-0.3wins-0.02per pick61cpaid-3.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa2c6…d14dbacked Over65c346.68$225 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$224.95250%1 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.16per pick66cpaid-25.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5711…fbf5backed Over60c333.33$200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$200757.1%4 W · 3 L-0.3wins-0.04per pick61cpaid-11.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x556c…93cebacked Under42c333$140 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$193.14425%1 W · 3 L-0.6wins-0.16per pick41cpaid-40.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x7f29…f03dbacked Over47c319.85$150 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1509856.1%55 W · 43 L+3.2wins+0.03per pick53cpaid+11.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x2f2b…d743backed Over32c312.5$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1003745.9%17 W · 20 L+1.0wins+0.03per pick43cpaid-0.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xe624…2928backed Under35c300$105 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$195933.3%3 W · 6 L-1.0wins-0.11per pick44cpaid-26.5%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xdc4f…9804backed Under37c299.99$110 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$189.516846.4%78 W · 90 L+1.6wins+0.01per pick45cpaid+0.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x84ad…bfb7backed Under55c297.95$164 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$134.364043.9%281 W · 359 L-9.7wins-0.02per pick45cpaid-17.6%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xb66c…a0f5backed Under42c292.37$123 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$169.376743.3%29 W · 38 L-3.7wins-0.06per pick49cpaid-17.7%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x23bc…5487backed Under42c272.66$115 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$157.663429.4%10 W · 24 L-6.2wins-0.18per pick48cpaid-42.6%equal weight38-0.11 edge/pick
0xf57c…66febacked Over22c263.64$58 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$58119.1%1 W · 10 L-1.9wins-0.18per pick27cpaid-83%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xcf73…0215backed Under40c254.89$102 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$152.9333047.3%156 W · 174 L+3.7wins+0.01per pick46cpaid-2.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xeb97…7ae1backed Over24c245.92$59 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$59.02742.9%3 W · 4 L+0.4wins+0.05per pick38cpaid-14.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xfe78…0319backed Under53c241$128 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$112.6948141.8%201 W · 280 L-5.3wins-0.01per pick43cpaid-12.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4bf2…d280backed Under41c239.02$98 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$141.021266.7%8 W · 4 L+1.4wins+0.11per pick55cpaid+17.9%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x415d…a37cbacked Over32c209.99$68 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$67.852450%12 W · 12 L+1.1wins+0.05per pick45cpaid-7.1%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x21db…2a42backed Over50c200$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1001764.7%11 W · 6 L+3.4wins+0.20per pick45cpaid+46.6%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0xa697…59d5backed Over61c166.33$102 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$101.9829855.4%165 W · 133 L+11.2wins+0.04per pick52cpaid+7.9%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xc9e1…1575backed Over60c161.98$97 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$97.1930%0 W · 3 L-1.4wins-0.47per pick47cpaid-100%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xbbbc…3122backed Over62c161.29$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$100728.6%2 W · 5 L-2.4wins-0.34per pick63cpaid-58.9%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x0cc0…65a2backed Over62c159.65$99 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$98.98250%1 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.14per pick64cpaid-24.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x200f…7a96backed Under39c153$60 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$93.151,08350.8%550 W · 533 L+8.2wins+0.01per pick50cpaid+2.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xade7…9d34backed Over36c149.99$54 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$54.253366.7%22 W · 11 L+2.8wins+0.09per pick58cpaid+16.2%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x4a4b…bbcabacked Over54c145$79 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$78.934655.5%192 W · 154 L+9.8wins+0.03per pick53cpaid+4.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xdce0…2dafbacked Under49c132.42$65 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$67.422020%4 W · 16 L-0.7wins-0.04per pick24cpaid-32.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x041e…bc83backed Under39c128.21$50 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$78.21366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.8wins+0.27per pick40cpaid+93%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xa596…15e9backed Under79c126.58$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$26.581070%7 W · 3 L+0.9wins+0.09per pick61cpaid+19.2%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x0d2d…7ff5backed Over41c125.9$52 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$52.178451.2%43 W · 41 L-1.1wins-0.01per pick52cpaid-1.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x25c5…0031backed Under47c106.55$50 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$56.551942.1%8 W · 11 L-0.2wins-0.01per pick43cpaid-1.2%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0xd37a…2358backed Over57c102.04$58 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$58.1662452.6%328 W · 296 L-9.9wins-0.02per pick54cpaid-4.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xe626…92b5backed Under54c101.08$55 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$46.083275%24 W · 8 L+8.1wins+0.25per pick50cpaid+51.9%equal weight66+0.14 edge/pick
0x5df5…c44cbacked Over46c100.46$46 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$46.2614755.8%82 W · 65 L+5.9wins+0.04per pick52cpaid-1.5%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xad9e…53c2backed Over60c100$60 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$60650%3 W · 3 L-0.4wins-0.06per pick56cpaid-0.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa578…6702backed Under41c91$37 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$53.6915244.1%67 W · 85 L-2.1wins-0.01per pick45cpaid-4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2c46…dac9backed Over24c90.49$22 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$21.9839558.7%232 W · 163 L+27.4wins+0.07per pick52cpaid+15.4%equal weight57+0.07 edge/pick
0x9a98…3f93backed Over46c87.5$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$401163.6%7 W · 4 L+1.5wins+0.13per pick50cpaid+37.8%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x948b…a188backed Under45c87.49$40 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$47.8318554.1%100 W · 85 L-4.2wins-0.02per pick56cpaid+0.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x5d05…f729backed Under43c87$37 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$49.591442.9%6 W · 8 L+0.2wins+0.01per pick42cpaid-20%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd035…57afbacked Over60c83.33$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$503452.9%18 W · 16 L+1.1wins+0.03per pick50cpaid+4.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x3c1e…9514backed Over62c80.65$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$504645.7%21 W · 25 L-2.5wins-0.05per pick51cpaid-11.8%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xbaa8…645bbacked Over22c80$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17.6825%2 W · 6 L-0.4wins-0.05per pick30cpaid-34.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x797f…aa36backed Under61c74.08$45 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$29.082100%2 W · 0 L+0.8wins+0.42per pick58cpaid+71.6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x45d5…a7a0backed Under38c71.13$27 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$44.1862.5%5 W · 3 L+1.0wins+0.12per pick50cpaid+18.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x8ab8…e32fbacked Over62c70.96$44 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$441145.5%5 W · 6 L-2.7wins-0.24per pick70cpaid-36.4%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x014c…38ccbacked Under43c69.42$30 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$39.574969.4%34 W · 15 L+8.6wins+0.18per pick52cpaid+48.6%equal weight63+0.12 edge/pick
0x8968…c3c1backed Under41c68.01$28 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$40.25251.9%27 W · 25 L+1.4wins+0.03per pick49cpaid+5.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xede5…5300backed Under41c68$28 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$40.12850%4 W · 4 L0.0wins0.00per pick50cpaid-12.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2da8…e7a6backed Over60c66.28$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$39.77250%1 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.13per pick63cpaid-25.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x16ea…9400backed Over59c64.2$38 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$37.8812056.7%68 W · 52 L+7.0wins+0.06per pick51cpaid+15.8%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xbe0c…c0cdbacked Under66c60.61$40 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$20.613070%21 W · 9 L+5.2wins+0.17per pick53cpaid+20.1%equal weight61+0.10 edge/pick
0x54d0…8e20backed Over61c55.74$34 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$34333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.8wins-0.27per pick61cpaid-41.5%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x86e6…e722backed Over57c54.17$31 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$31.033360.6%20 W · 13 L+3.5wins+0.10per pick50cpaid+18.1%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xcbb2…2bb3backed Under60c53.33$32 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$21.33250%1 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.11per pick61cpaid-16.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x0a1f…efd1backed Under80c53.25$42 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$10.781100%1 W · 0 L+0.2wins+0.20per pick80cpaid+25.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x5cb4…4576backed Under37c53$19 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$33.639850%49 W · 49 L+1.3wins+0.01per pick49cpaid-0.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xcf00…353fbacked Under35c51.51$18 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$33.427532%24 W · 51 L-0.3wins0.00per pick32cpaid-3.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xbf07…4a12backed Under41c50$21 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$29.54841.7%20 W · 28 L+1.5wins+0.03per pick38cpaid+7.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Bundesliga and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 9 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.