TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Bundesliga · resolved market

VfL Wolfsburg vs. FC Bayern München: O/U 4.5

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Underof Over, Under
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Bundesligaevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$79,972
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$85,913

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $79,972 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 89 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Bundesliga is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Bundesliga
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0xfd29…77aebacked Over42c29,688$12,614 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12,613.736358.7%37 W · 26 L+5.5wins+0.09per pick50cpaid+16.5%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x2005…75eabacked Under58c12,747$7,335 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5,412.212,53839.8%1,009 W · 1,529 L-8.1wins0.00per pick40cpaid-11.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x204f…5e14backed Under59c12,336$7,307 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5,028.843,28442.6%1,399 W · 1,885 L-74.0wins-0.02per pick45cpaid-18.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x3b5c…126ebacked Under58c6,382$3,730 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,651.9227138.4%104 W · 167 L-9.0wins-0.03per pick42cpaid-17%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xec59…bb35backed Over40c4,800$1,941 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,940.986762.7%42 W · 25 L+2.2wins+0.03per pick59cpaid+8.2%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xe4d0…8814backed Over42c3,516$1,487 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,487.441855.6%10 W · 8 L-1.0wins-0.05per pick61cpaid-14.5%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x77bc…b91bbacked Over43c2,851$1,223 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,223.181,30540.8%532 W · 773 L-42.3wins-0.03per pick44cpaid-21.6%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xfe78…0319backed Under59c2,617$1,554 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,063.3848141.8%201 W · 280 L-5.3wins-0.01per pick43cpaid-12.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4f42…8bbcbacked Over46c2,600$1,200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,2004447.7%21 W · 23 L+2.4wins+0.05per pick42cpaid+17.9%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x734e…5ba1backed Under55c2,185$1,205 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$980.393100%3 W · 0 L+1.5wins+0.49per pick51cpaid+103.5%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x0346…52a5backed Over38c1,968$744 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$743.8728345.2%128 W · 155 L+6.0wins+0.02per pick43cpaid-5.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x371e…0f81backed Over40c1,866$750 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$7501861.1%11 W · 7 L-0.3wins-0.02per pick63cpaid-8.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x9cb4…8285backed Under57c1,755$1,004 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$751.555058.7%323 W · 227 L+23.5wins+0.04per pick54cpaid+4.7%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xd871…6bbabacked Over43c1,642$699 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$698.671553.3%8 W · 7 L+1.2wins+0.08per pick45cpaid+55.6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x424e…263bbacked Under58c1,622$946 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$675.5328755.1%158 W · 129 L+12.3wins+0.04per pick51cpaid+8.3%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xb8c4…7385backed Under57c1,000$570 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$43015742%66 W · 91 L+4.7wins+0.03per pick39cpaid+0.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x016c…df21backed Over37c788.61$291 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$290.872941.4%12 W · 17 L-0.4wins-0.01per pick43cpaid-7.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe941…a496backed Under58c601.84$348 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$254.057365.8%48 W · 25 L+8.5wins+0.12per pick54cpaid+16.7%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0xa697…59d5backed Under57c574.45$330 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$244.8629855.4%165 W · 133 L+11.2wins+0.04per pick52cpaid+7.9%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xce2b…08fabacked Under64c546.88$350 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$196.8838055.8%212 W · 168 L-0.9wins0.00per pick56cpaid+0.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd4f9…f4adbacked Under57c524.77$301 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$223.774100%4 W · 0 L+1.5wins+0.38per pick62cpaid+66.2%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x5cb4…4576backed Under58c511.36$297 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$214.379850%49 W · 49 L+1.3wins+0.01per pick49cpaid-0.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xe398…4ce5backed Under70c473.76$332 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$142.132766.7%18 W · 9 L-0.6wins-0.02per pick69cpaid-2.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xdc4f…9804backed Under58c454.3$265 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$189.5316846.4%78 W · 90 L+1.6wins+0.01per pick45cpaid+0.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xd01c…7f9dbacked Under57c438$250 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$188.3448146.4%223 W · 258 L+0.1wins0.00per pick46cpaid+1.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1f62…76f6backed Under57c438$250 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$188.3463645.1%287 W · 349 L+5.2wins+0.01per pick44cpaid+1.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x200f…7a96backed Under58c388$224 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$164.421,08350.8%550 W · 533 L+8.2wins+0.01per pick50cpaid+2.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xd254…9858backed Over42c383.01$162 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$161.71883.3%15 W · 3 L+2.6wins+0.14per pick69cpaid+19.8%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x5711…fbf5backed Over40c375$150 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$150757.1%4 W · 3 L-0.3wins-0.04per pick61cpaid-11.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xcf00…353fbacked Under57c361.98$206 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$155.827532%24 W · 51 L-0.3wins0.00per pick32cpaid-3.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1eba…ff9cbacked Over17c350$60 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$59.590%0 W · 9 L-2.4wins-0.27per pick27cpaid-100%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x948b…a188backed Under58c344.31$201 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$143.7418554.1%100 W · 85 L-4.2wins-0.02per pick56cpaid+0.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x7a4a…044ebacked Over44c320.11$140 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$140560%3 W · 2 L+0.8wins+0.16per pick44cpaid+22%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x21db…2a42backed Over32c312.5$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1001764.7%11 W · 6 L+3.4wins+0.20per pick45cpaid+46.6%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x6b3a…2841backed Under58c299.96$174 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$125.985326.4%14 W · 39 L-3.3wins-0.06per pick33cpaid-25.4%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xc9e1…1575backed Over40c267.5$107 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10730%0 W · 3 L-1.4wins-0.47per pick47cpaid-100%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x84f7…ade1backed Over33c239$79 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$78.9218545.9%85 W · 100 L+1.3wins+0.01per pick45cpaid+7.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x0f76…fa0fbacked Over44c227.27$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10020%0 W · 2 L-0.9wins-0.45per pick45cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x8f70…8634backed Under59c219.99$130 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$90.22100%2 W · 0 L+0.9wins+0.46per pick54cpaid+84.9%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xd235…6eebbacked Over11c210$23 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$23.111943.7%52 W · 67 L+8.0wins+0.07per pick37cpaid+20.8%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x4dbc…6ca9backed Over40c209.1$84 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$83.6410%0 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.40per pick40cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x7d0c…a3b7backed Under57c207$118 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$89.0149647.4%235 W · 261 L+2.0wins0.00per pick47cpaid+1.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xcc11…c87bbacked Under58c202.55$117 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$85.071145.5%5 W · 6 L-1.1wins-0.10per pick56cpaid-24.3%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x234b…f36dbacked Under57c194.03$111 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$83.395846.6%27 W · 31 L-3.1wins-0.05per pick52cpaid-15%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x84ad…bfb7backed Under67c188.04$127 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$61.564043.9%281 W · 359 L-9.7wins-0.02per pick45cpaid-17.6%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x8508…c22fbacked Under59c186.44$110 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$76.441546.7%7 W · 8 L+0.3wins+0.02per pick45cpaid-7.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x00b0…7baebacked Over42c152.59$64 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$64.09425%1 W · 3 L-1.1wins-0.28per pick53cpaid-50%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x435d…c52abacked Over37c152.46$56 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$56.411421.4%3 W · 11 L-1.1wins-0.08per pick29cpaid-36%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x61e4…fb60backed Under55c142.35$78 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$64.086855.9%38 W · 30 L+2.6wins+0.04per pick52cpaid+5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x87d1…3da3backed Under58c137.75$79 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$58.54425%1 W · 3 L-1.0wins-0.25per pick50cpaid-56.5%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x099f…c1e1backed Under58c120$69 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$50.817456.9%99 W · 75 L+6.4wins+0.04per pick53cpaid+7.8%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x0b79…d63fbacked Over42c119.05$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$50837.5%3 W · 5 L-0.9wins-0.12per pick49cpaid-32.3%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xade7…9d34backed Over22c117.69$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25.393366.7%22 W · 11 L+2.8wins+0.09per pick58cpaid+16.2%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x7138…8c89backed Over38c100.28$39 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$38.5911338.9%44 W · 69 L-3.7wins-0.03per pick42cpaid-9.4%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x0c99…0c88backed Under54c100$54 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4620645.6%94 W · 112 L-3.0wins-0.01per pick47cpaid-7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5b62…d87fbacked Under57c100$57 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$438458.3%49 W · 35 L0.0wins0.00per pick58cpaid+0.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x80d8…b703backed Under54c100$54 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4614642.5%62 W · 84 L-7.6wins-0.05per pick48cpaid-11.6%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x3991…b6c7backed Over39c100$39 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$394951%25 W · 24 L+1.5wins+0.03per pick48cpaid+7.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x29a5…a3c4backed Over43c89.97$38 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$38.3910956%61 W · 48 L+3.0wins+0.03per pick53cpaid+4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xa578…6702backed Over39c84$33 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$32.7615244.1%67 W · 85 L-2.1wins-0.01per pick45cpaid-4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xccfa…6ee7backed Over40c80$32 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$321040%4 W · 6 L+0.3wins+0.03per pick37cpaid+8.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x45d5…a7a0backed Under58c75$43 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$31.75862.5%5 W · 3 L+1.0wins+0.12per pick50cpaid+18.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x16ea…9400backed Over42c66.3$28 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$28.1712056.7%68 W · 52 L+7.0wins+0.06per pick51cpaid+15.8%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xb66c…a0f5backed Under60c65.21$39 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$25.966743.3%29 W · 38 L-3.7wins-0.06per pick49cpaid-17.7%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x82a5…674ebacked Under59c62.54$37 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$25.666046.7%28 W · 32 L-2.6wins-0.04per pick51cpaid-16.7%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xdb83…1e50backed Under60c61.8$37 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$24.5726445.5%120 W · 144 L-2.7wins-0.01per pick46cpaid-7.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4d85…2560backed Under53c60.87$32 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$28.615356.6%30 W · 23 L+1.9wins+0.04per pick53cpaid+3.7%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x0a76…b30fbacked Over45c55.56$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$256339.7%25 W · 38 L-5.8wins-0.09per pick49cpaid-20.6%equal weight43-0.07 edge/pick
0x195d…2decbacked Over39c51.28$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$201250%6 W · 6 L-0.6wins-0.05per pick55cpaid-19.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xff2a…bfefbacked Under59c50.5$30 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$20.52152.4%11 W · 10 L+0.1wins+0.01per pick52cpaid+7.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xad9e…53c2backed Over40c49.7$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.88650%3 W · 3 L-0.4wins-0.06per pick56cpaid-0.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x3110…c3f5backed Over42c47.62$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$203366.7%22 W · 11 L+2.9wins+0.09per pick58cpaid+14.1%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xee0a…36d8backed Over42c47.62$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$202286.4%19 W · 3 L+4.7wins+0.21per pick65cpaid+35.6%equal weight61+0.10 edge/pick
0x767a…363ebacked Over42c42.86$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1810%0 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.42per pick42cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xe626…92b5backed Under59c42.37$25 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$17.373275%24 W · 8 L+8.1wins+0.25per pick50cpaid+51.9%equal weight66+0.14 edge/pick
0x03ba…bebabacked Under58c40.96$24 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$17.387455.4%41 W · 33 L+4.0wins+0.05per pick50cpaid-1.3%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x5fea…78b1backed Under56c39.26$22 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$17.282035%7 W · 13 L-0.2wins-0.01per pick36cpaid-31%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0d2d…7ff5backed Under65c39.23$25 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$13.778451.2%43 W · 41 L-1.1wins-0.01per pick52cpaid-1.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x32cc…68b3backed Under57c37$21 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$15.9121355.4%118 W · 95 L+8.1wins+0.04per pick52cpaid+6.3%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x3a15…52d6backed Under59c36.61$22 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$15.016752.2%35 W · 32 L-3.7wins-0.06per pick58cpaid-14.2%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x2444…4252backed Under57c34.2$19 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$14.713100%3 W · 0 L+1.4wins+0.47per pick53cpaid+89.7%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x8816…7082backed Under56c33.93$19 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$14.935347.2%25 W · 28 L-3.2wins-0.06per pick53cpaid-11.4%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x41bc…4e5fbacked Over40c25$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1010%0 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.40per pick40cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x7c3d…ef8ebacked Over40c25$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10250%1 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick50cpaid-18%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd7f9…29a9backed Under60c23.14$14 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$9.2111159.5%66 W · 45 L+7.4wins+0.07per pick53cpaid+9.2%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xaedd…ad5bbacked Under58c20.83$12 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8.792755.6%15 W · 12 L-1.2wins-0.04per pick60cpaid-14.5%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xc6d4…523cbacked Under60c20$12 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$81258.3%7 W · 5 L-0.1wins-0.01per pick59cpaid-8.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x491c…b765backed Under62c20$12 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7.65464.8%35 W · 19 L-0.9wins-0.02per pick67cpaid-4.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xdb22…a11cbacked Under58c18.08$10 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7.66875%6 W · 2 L+0.8wins+0.11per pick64cpaid+20.7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Bundesliga and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 9 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.