TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Bundesliga · resolved market

Spread: FC Bayern München (-1.5)

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
VfL Wolfsburgof FC Bayern München, VfL Wolfsburg
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Bundesligaevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$101,863
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$106,378

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $101,863 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 143 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Bundesliga is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Bundesliga
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x204f…5e14backed VfL Wolfsburg49c22,363$11,008 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$11,354.973,28442.6%1,399 W · 1,885 L-74.0wins-0.02per pick45cpaid-18.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xdf80…3259backed FC Bayern München55c18,887$10,409 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10,409.23520%1 W · 4 L-1.5wins-0.31per pick51cpaid-65.5%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x44c5…8d45backed FC Bayern München52c9,620$5,002 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5,002.3716045%72 W · 88 L+5.4wins+0.03per pick42cpaid+9.7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x7299…31f3backed FC Bayern München45c8,749$3,936 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,936.043551.4%18 W · 17 L+2.8wins+0.08per pick43cpaid+10.8%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x2005…75eabacked VfL Wolfsburg51c8,383$4,240 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,142.932,53839.8%1,009 W · 1,529 L-8.1wins0.00per pick40cpaid-11.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x27f7…44b0backed VfL Wolfsburg58c5,005$2,927 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,078.487443.2%32 W · 42 L-9.2wins-0.12per pick56cpaid-21.7%equal weight40-0.09 edge/pick
0x3b5c…126ebacked VfL Wolfsburg56c4,339$2,416 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,923.2327138.4%104 W · 167 L-9.0wins-0.03per pick42cpaid-17%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x0346…52a5backed FC Bayern München42c4,254$1,802 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,802.0328345.2%128 W · 155 L+6.0wins+0.02per pick43cpaid-5.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xcb7b…3051backed FC Bayern München46c3,837$1,770 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,770540%2 W · 3 L-0.5wins-0.11per pick51cpaid-29.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xc68b…f6eebacked VfL Wolfsburg58c3,052$1,769 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,283.51100%1 W · 0 L+0.4wins+0.42per pick58cpaid+72.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x1e33…afb3backed VfL Wolfsburg55c2,624$1,450 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,174.325147.1%24 W · 27 L-1.3wins-0.03per pick50cpaid+0.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xee19…555ebacked FC Bayern München41c2,500$1,035 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,0355541.8%23 W · 32 L-1.5wins-0.03per pick45cpaid-6.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x12b9…3ec2backed FC Bayern München53c2,342$1,250 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,249.6610641.5%44 W · 62 L+6.2wins+0.06per pick36cpaid+13.6%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x424e…263bbacked VfL Wolfsburg57c2,135$1,213 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$922.9528755.1%158 W · 129 L+12.3wins+0.04per pick51cpaid+8.3%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xfe78…0319backed FC Bayern München42c2,046$859 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$859.248141.8%201 W · 280 L-5.3wins-0.01per pick43cpaid-12.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x7138…8c89backed VfL Wolfsburg57c1,729$989 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$740.4311338.9%44 W · 69 L-3.7wins-0.03per pick42cpaid-9.4%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x0656…4d9bbacked FC Bayern München1c1,500$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15333%1 W · 32 L0.0wins0.00per pick3cpaid-69.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf2c0…755dbacked FC Bayern München43c1,165$500 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$50020%0 W · 2 L-0.7wins-0.35per pick35cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x2fcb…78cfbacked VfL Wolfsburg54c999.99$540 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4603461.8%21 W · 13 L+4.2wins+0.12per pick49cpaid+28.4%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0xa664…f849backed VfL Wolfsburg56c999.98$560 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$439.99771.4%5 W · 2 L+2.1wins+0.30per pick42cpaid+42%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xadfb…c2efbacked VfL Wolfsburg59c940.55$554 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$386.7638646.9%181 W · 205 L-7.6wins-0.02per pick49cpaid-7.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xd6b2…67febacked FC Bayern München46c891.16$410 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$409.93250%1 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.02per pick53cpaid-15.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa697…59d5backed VfL Wolfsburg56c800$448 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$35229855.4%165 W · 133 L+11.2wins+0.04per pick52cpaid+7.9%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xdb83…1e50backed VfL Wolfsburg48c769.97$372 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$397.6326445.5%120 W · 144 L-2.7wins-0.01per pick46cpaid-7.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa374…9709backed FC Bayern München42c764.52$319 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$318.523050%15 W · 15 L+2.3wins+0.08per pick42cpaid+11.6%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xdd5e…9040backed FC Bayern München41c712$292 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$291.921936.8%7 W · 12 L-3.1wins-0.16per pick53cpaid-36.3%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x9495…9a27backed VfL Wolfsburg53c695.76$369 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$327.014050%20 W · 20 L+0.5wins+0.01per pick49cpaid+0.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x8f7e…cbbdbacked FC Bayern München43c693.02$298 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$298850%4 W · 4 L-0.2wins-0.03per pick53cpaid-13.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x7ea5…de7bbacked VfL Wolfsburg54c689.28$373 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$316.31,68145.2%759 W · 922 L+6.8wins0.00per pick45cpaid-2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x36b4…d723backed FC Bayern München48c599.99$288 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$287.99425%1 W · 3 L-1.0wins-0.25per pick50cpaid-56.1%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xba97…716bbacked FC Bayern München51c584.98$298 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$298.342326.1%6 W · 17 L-2.5wins-0.11per pick37cpaid-34.8%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xce2b…08fabacked FC Bayern München52c576.92$300 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30038055.8%212 W · 168 L-0.9wins0.00per pick56cpaid+0.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf38c…d9f2backed FC Bayern München46c549.76$253 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$252.8911748.7%57 W · 60 L-3.8wins-0.03per pick52cpaid-8.9%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x7bec…07a8backed FC Bayern München42c500$210 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2102045%9 W · 11 L+1.0wins+0.05per pick40cpaid+3.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xefde…6505backed VfL Wolfsburg59c448.31$265 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$183.8122047.3%104 W · 116 L+4.7wins+0.02per pick45cpaid+2.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xfe02…1204backed VfL Wolfsburg55c440$242 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1981668.8%11 W · 5 L+3.4wins+0.22per pick47cpaid+30.4%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x802f…e008backed FC Bayern München46c434.78$200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20012271.3%87 W · 35 L+6.1wins+0.05per pick66cpaid+8.4%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x1966…da9ebacked VfL Wolfsburg50c400$200 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2008050%40 W · 40 L+2.9wins+0.04per pick46cpaid+7.7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x2d0e…1461backed VfL Wolfsburg60c400$240 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1601100%1 W · 0 L+0.4wins+0.40per pick60cpaid+66.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x0d2d…7ff5backed FC Bayern München39c396.31$156 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$156.228451.2%43 W · 41 L-1.1wins-0.01per pick52cpaid-1.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xdbdd…a5debacked FC Bayern München50c385.35$193 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$192.6848658.6%285 W · 201 L+44.5wins+0.09per pick49cpaid+33%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0x2374…a426backed FC Bayern München31c322.58$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10030%0 W · 3 L-1.3wins-0.44per pick44cpaid-100%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xf57c…66febacked FC Bayern München31c322.58$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$100119.1%1 W · 10 L-1.9wins-0.18per pick27cpaid-83%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xc199…a956backed FC Bayern München39c256.41$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$100333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.2wins-0.08per pick41cpaid-43.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x7511…582ebacked FC Bayern München41c254.85$104 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$104.4914055%77 W · 63 L+1.5wins+0.01per pick54cpaid+2.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xa623…a4febacked VfL Wolfsburg48c253$121 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$131.5614652.7%77 W · 69 L+11.2wins+0.08per pick45cpaid+11.1%equal weight57+0.07 edge/pick
0x5d15…e663backed FC Bayern München42c250$106 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$105.530%0 W · 3 L-0.9wins-0.28per pick28cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xb723…d9dcbacked FC Bayern München45c230$104 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$103.5728.6%2 W · 5 L-1.7wins-0.24per pick52cpaid-56.4%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x3a5b…a4d9backed FC Bayern München44c220.45$97 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$97450%2 W · 2 L-0.2wins-0.05per pick55cpaid-25.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x95b7…d633backed FC Bayern München44c219.91$97 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$96.764641.3%19 W · 27 L-0.8wins-0.02per pick43cpaid-8.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x0f76…fa0fbacked FC Bayern München47c213.5$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10020%0 W · 2 L-0.9wins-0.45per pick45cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x3b5f…7b99backed FC Bayern München45c200$90 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$9010246.1%47 W · 55 L+0.4wins0.00per pick46cpaid+1.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x18ed…04cbbacked FC Bayern München38c200$76 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$76944.4%4 W · 5 L0.0wins+0.01per pick44cpaid+11.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa4f9…9419backed FC Bayern München48c199.99$96 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$961136.4%4 W · 7 L-0.1wins-0.01per pick37cpaid+32.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe619…6342backed FC Bayern München46c188.5$86 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$86.473429.4%10 W · 24 L-5.3wins-0.16per pick45cpaid-44.2%equal weight40-0.09 edge/pick
0xbaa2…1973backed FC Bayern München30c173.33$52 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$525032%16 W · 34 L-3.1wins-0.06per pick38cpaid-30.7%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xe941…a496backed VfL Wolfsburg56c171.41$96 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$75.827365.8%48 W · 25 L+8.5wins+0.12per pick54cpaid+16.7%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0xaf5b…5d3abacked VfL Wolfsburg60c168.33$101 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$67.331369.2%9 W · 4 L+0.4wins+0.03per pick66cpaid+2.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x96a3…d944backed FC Bayern München40c168.33$67 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$67.33250%1 W · 1 L+0.2wins+0.08per pick42cpaid+13.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xcf00…353fbacked VfL Wolfsburg54c162.87$88 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$74.927532%24 W · 51 L-0.3wins0.00per pick32cpaid-3.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x00d2…fe64backed VfL Wolfsburg56c154$86 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$68.46450%2 W · 2 L+0.1wins+0.03per pick47cpaid-22.3%equal weight510.00 edge/pick
0xcbcc…edc9backed VfL Wolfsburg70c142.86$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$42.86580%4 W · 1 L+0.7wins+0.15per pick65cpaid+13.4%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xdb03…9732backed FC Bayern München46c141.3$65 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$65966.7%6 W · 3 L+0.8wins+0.09per pick58cpaid+11.1%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x65f4…5222backed VfL Wolfsburg50c138.69$70 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$68.691457.1%8 W · 6 L+1.9wins+0.14per pick43cpaid+12.7%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x4178…defabacked VfL Wolfsburg55c132.95$73 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$59.833100%3 W · 0 L+1.4wins+0.46per pick54cpaid+93.2%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xc514…e9b4backed FC Bayern München49c132.1$65 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$64.7310728%30 W · 77 L-1.7wins-0.02per pick30cpaid-25.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xceee…d39ebacked FC Bayern München41c129.25$53 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$52.992630.8%8 W · 18 L-3.2wins-0.12per pick43cpaid-23.9%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0xec56…1816backed FC Bayern München42c127.71$54 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$53.649248.9%45 W · 47 L+1.1wins+0.01per pick48cpaid-1.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xeaae…ec88backed FC Bayern München40c125.3$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$501369.2%9 W · 4 L+3.4wins+0.26per pick43cpaid+83.3%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0x325f…4511backed VfL Wolfsburg48c123.41$59 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$64.6553140.7%216 W · 315 L-13.3wins-0.03per pick43cpaid-10.7%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xf33f…51dabacked FC Bayern München31c111.34$35 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$353953.8%21 W · 18 L+0.5wins+0.01per pick53cpaid-1.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x2546…5155backed VfL Wolfsburg58c110$64 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$46.21770.6%12 W · 5 L+2.9wins+0.17per pick54cpaid+41.2%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x3c1e…9514backed FC Bayern München46c108.48$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$504645.7%21 W · 25 L-2.5wins-0.05per pick51cpaid-11.8%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xb581…1b9cbacked VfL Wolfsburg56c107.14$60 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$47.142470.8%17 W · 7 L+3.4wins+0.14per pick57cpaid+21.2%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x5df5…c44cbacked FC Bayern München40c105.05$42 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$41.6214755.8%82 W · 65 L+5.9wins+0.04per pick52cpaid-1.5%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xc2af…3880backed FC Bayern München52c102.65$53 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$53.433033.3%10 W · 20 L-2.9wins-0.10per pick43cpaid-40.2%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x5b8d…bb92backed FC Bayern München42c100$42 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$425162.7%32 W · 19 L+4.9wins+0.10per pick53cpaid+18.5%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x5b62…d87fbacked VfL Wolfsburg59c100$59 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$418458.3%49 W · 35 L0.0wins0.00per pick58cpaid+0.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xbc1b…3b5bbacked FC Bayern München46c100$46 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$462552%13 W · 12 L+3.1wins+0.12per pick40cpaid+50.1%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x52d8…99aebacked VfL Wolfsburg57c100$57 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$435655.4%31 W · 25 L-0.7wins-0.01per pick57cpaid+0.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa710…f1ccbacked FC Bayern München42c100$42 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4217930.2%54 W · 125 L-1.3wins-0.01per pick31cpaid-1.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xb4f3…999fbacked FC Bayern München38c100$38 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3811539.1%45 W · 70 L-1.3wins-0.01per pick40cpaid-14.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x9787…37dfbacked FC Bayern München29c100$29 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$292740.7%11 W · 16 L-0.6wins-0.02per pick43cpaid-7.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xd235…6eebbacked FC Bayern München30c99.99$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3011943.7%52 W · 67 L+8.0wins+0.07per pick37cpaid+20.8%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0xc6c5…6f9cbacked FC Bayern München31c96.77$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3040%0 W · 4 L-1.7wins-0.42per pick42cpaid-100%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0xa578…6702backed FC Bayern München41c91$37 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$37.3115244.1%67 W · 85 L-2.1wins-0.01per pick45cpaid-4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x200f…7a96backed VfL Wolfsburg55c88.5$48 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$40.261,08350.8%550 W · 533 L+8.2wins+0.01per pick50cpaid+2.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x84ad…bfb7backed VfL Wolfsburg63c87.56$55 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$32.5964043.9%281 W · 359 L-9.7wins-0.02per pick45cpaid-17.6%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x54d5…77d4backed FC Bayern München49c81.63$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$402254.5%12 W · 10 L-0.6wins-0.03per pick57cpaid-9.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x8374…f183backed VfL Wolfsburg62c80.65$50 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$30.651283.3%10 W · 2 L+3.0wins+0.25per pick58cpaid+42.3%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0xa07d…a037backed FC Bayern München36c79.87$29 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$29.0828822.6%65 W · 223 L-11.1wins-0.04per pick26cpaid-14.3%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xd88d…f708backed FC Bayern München34c79.41$27 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$271631.3%5 W · 11 L0.0wins0.00per pick31cpaid+14.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xbfd7…f0bfbacked FC Bayern München40c79.3$32 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$31.7221540.9%88 W · 127 L-15.5wins-0.07per pick48cpaid-24.3%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x03ba…bebabacked FC Bayern München43c73.75$31 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$31.427455.4%41 W · 33 L+4.0wins+0.05per pick50cpaid-1.3%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x0378…a6bbbacked VfL Wolfsburg70c71.57$50 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$21.57250%1 W · 1 L+0.1wins+0.03per pick47cpaid-28.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9da7…8bb1backed VfL Wolfsburg70c70.65$49 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$21.331100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.30per pick70cpaid+43.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x41b1…b470backed FC Bayern München29c68.97$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$201136.4%4 W · 7 L-0.5wins-0.05per pick41cpaid-29.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x2716…a6f4backed FC Bayern München46c65.22$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$301250%6 W · 6 L+1.6wins+0.13per pick37cpaid+35.8%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x6553…aa3cbacked VfL Wolfsburg62c64.52$40 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$24.521464.3%9 W · 5 L+1.0wins+0.07per pick57cpaid+13.9%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xf102…1348backed VfL Wolfsburg58c63$37 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$26.4724322.2%54 W · 189 L-13.3wins-0.05per pick28cpaid-22.4%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Bundesliga and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 9 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.