Bundesliga · resolved market
Spread: FC Bayern München (-2.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xe697a89f60efa35482e497848e7c553466605cf1f0786a9df8e5d5b31ac79096
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- VfL Wolfsburgof FC Bayern München, VfL Wolfsburg
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Bundesligaevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $17,929
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $18,150
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $17,929 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 34 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Bundesliga is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Bundesliga | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x204f…5e14backed VfL Wolfsburg | 76c | 2,281$1,734 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$547.67 | 3,284 | 42.6%1,399 W · 1,885 L | -74.0wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -18.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf2c0…755dbacked FC Bayern München | 26c | 1,891$500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$500 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.7wins | -0.35per pick | 35cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0346…52a5backed VfL Wolfsburg | 76c | 1,744$1,331 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$412.65 | 283 | 45.2%128 W · 155 L | +6.0wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc199…a956backed FC Bayern München | 25c | 1,595$392 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$391.85 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.08per pick | 41cpaid | -43.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7299…31f3backed FC Bayern München | 13c | 1,538$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 35 | 51.4%18 W · 17 L | +2.8wins | +0.08per pick | 43cpaid | +10.8%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0273…1867backed FC Bayern München | 25c | 988$247 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$247 | 40 | 25%10 W · 30 L | -1.5wins | -0.04per pick | 29cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3b5c…126ebacked VfL Wolfsburg | 73c | 979.83$720 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$260.32 | 271 | 38.4%104 W · 167 L | -9.0wins | -0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -17%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc249…8a61backed VfL Wolfsburg | 75c | 841.07$627 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$213.68 | 42 | 40.5%17 W · 25 L | -4.0wins | -0.09per pick | 50cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa374…9709backed FC Bayern München | 25c | 818.88$201 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200.96 | 30 | 50%15 W · 15 L | +2.3wins | +0.08per pick | 42cpaid | +11.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc10d…e679backed FC Bayern München | 25c | 807.59$205 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$204.75 | 18 | 38.9%7 W · 11 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xaf5b…5d3abacked VfL Wolfsburg | 77c | 429.87$331 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$98.87 | 13 | 69.2%9 W · 4 L | +0.4wins | +0.03per pick | 66cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcf00…353fbacked FC Bayern München | 31c | 293.51$91 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$90.99 | 75 | 32%24 W · 51 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 32cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x200f…7a96backed VfL Wolfsburg | 74c | 258$192 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$66 | 1,083 | 50.8%550 W · 533 L | +8.2wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf009…19e9backed FC Bayern München | 24c | 208.33$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 125 | 38.4%48 W · 77 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 39cpaid | -4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa710…f1ccbacked FC Bayern München | 25c | 199.98$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.99 | 179 | 30.2%54 W · 125 L | -1.3wins | -0.01per pick | 31cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdb83…1e50backed VfL Wolfsburg | 76c | 181.37$138 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.2 | 264 | 45.5%120 W · 144 L | -2.7wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0d2d…7ff5backed FC Bayern München | 23c | 121.78$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.48 | 84 | 51.2%43 W · 41 L | -1.1wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xec56…1816backed FC Bayern München | 24c | 119.63$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.71 | 92 | 48.9%45 W · 47 L | +1.1wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8b0b…12ffbacked FC Bayern München | 18c | 107.67$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.38 | 53 | 41.5%22 W · 31 L | -2.7wins | -0.05per pick | 47cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xcbac…435fbacked FC Bayern München | 28c | 102.2$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.62 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +0.6wins | +0.10per pick | 56cpaid | +5.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa4f9…9419backed FC Bayern München | 30c | 101.05$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.51 | 11 | 36.4%4 W · 7 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 37cpaid | +32.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xccfa…6ee7backed FC Bayern München | 25c | 100$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | +0.3wins | +0.03per pick | 37cpaid | +8.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7138…8c89backed FC Bayern München | 25c | 100$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.5 | 113 | 38.9%44 W · 69 L | -3.7wins | -0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -9.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa07d…a037backed FC Bayern München | 24c | 69.98$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.59 | 288 | 22.6%65 W · 223 L | -11.1wins | -0.04per pick | 26cpaid | -14.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb006…3458backed FC Bayern München | 29c | 68.97$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 11 | 45.5%5 W · 6 L | -0.6wins | -0.05per pick | 51cpaid | -22.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe1cc…28a0backed VfL Wolfsburg | 76c | 65.79$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.79 | 24 | 50%12 W · 12 L | -3.4wins | -0.14per pick | 64cpaid | -29.4%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x03ba…bebabacked FC Bayern München | 28c | 42.81$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.99 | 74 | 55.4%41 W · 33 L | +4.0wins | +0.05per pick | 50cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa8ae…7f3ebacked FC Bayern München | 25c | 40.92$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.23 | 75 | 41.3%31 W · 44 L | -1.9wins | -0.03per pick | 44cpaid | -16.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x61e4…fb60backed VfL Wolfsburg | 70c | 32$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.6 | 68 | 55.9%38 W · 30 L | +2.6wins | +0.04per pick | 52cpaid | +5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb051…e693backed VfL Wolfsburg | 75c | 20$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.25per pick | 75cpaid | +33.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcee6…0a45backed VfL Wolfsburg | 73c | 16$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.32 | 41 | 51.2%21 W · 20 L | -1.9wins | -0.05per pick | 56cpaid | -11.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb305…a400backed VfL Wolfsburg | 74c | 14.86$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.86 | 21 | 52.4%11 W · 10 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd7f9…29a9backed VfL Wolfsburg | 77c | 14$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.26 | 111 | 59.5%66 W · 45 L | +7.4wins | +0.07per pick | 53cpaid | +9.2%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x14b2…e75fbacked VfL Wolfsburg | 78c | 12.97$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2.85 | 10 | 70%7 W · 3 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 70cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Bundesliga and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 9 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: FC Bayern München (-2.5)this page
- Spread: FC Bayern München (-1.5)VfL Wolfsburg won
- Spread: VfL Wolfsburg (-1.5)FC Bayern München won
- Spread: VfL Wolfsburg (-2.5)FC Bayern München won
- VfL Wolfsburg vs. FC Bayern München: Both Teams to ScoreNo won
- VfL Wolfsburg vs. FC Bayern München: O/U 1.5Under won
- VfL Wolfsburg vs. FC Bayern München: O/U 2.5Under won
- VfL Wolfsburg vs. FC Bayern München: O/U 3.5Under won
- VfL Wolfsburg vs. FC Bayern München: O/U 4.5Under won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.