Bundesliga · resolved market
VfL Wolfsburg vs. FC Bayern München: O/U 1.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xf6c43aebc89a491b3d9112c5beef3d84436e435195bceea0541b4a2c3d9ff7d7
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Underof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Bundesligaevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $57,654
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $63,059
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $57,654 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 69 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Bundesliga is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Bundesliga | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x77c8…bc8cbacked Under | 14c | 14,073$1,953 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12,119.11 | 43 | 18.6%8 W · 35 L | +1.1wins | +0.02per pick | 16cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Over | 61c | 5,822$3,552 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,552.29 | 2,538 | 39.8%1,009 W · 1,529 L | -8.1wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3234…8b1abacked Under | 59c | 4,395$2,592 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,802.34 | 13 | 53.8%7 W · 6 L | +1.4wins | +0.11per pick | 43cpaid | +19.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Under | 22c | 3,509$773 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,736.91 | 3,284 | 42.6%1,399 W · 1,885 L | -74.0wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -18.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x77bc…b91bbacked Over | 50c | 2,407$1,203 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,202.93 | 1,305 | 40.8%532 W · 773 L | -42.3wins | -0.03per pick | 44cpaid | -21.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0346…52a5backed Under | 32c | 1,860$592 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,268.55 | 283 | 45.2%128 W · 155 L | +6.0wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdbdd…a5debacked Under | 48c | 1,378$661 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$716.33 | 486 | 58.6%285 W · 201 L | +44.5wins | +0.09per pick | 49cpaid | +33%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x40e8…88a4backed Over | 75c | 1,300$981 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$981 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.04per pick | 71cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6832…831fbacked Over | 40c | 1,288$519 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$518.66 | 18 | 27.8%5 W · 13 L | -1.1wins | -0.06per pick | 34cpaid | -44.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd218…b5c9backed Over | 35c | 1,265$449 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$448.81 | 337 | 37.4%126 W · 211 L | -11.2wins | -0.03per pick | 41cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3bae…885abacked Under | 19c | 1,000$190 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$810 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +1.7wins | +0.44per pick | 31cpaid | +183.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x9762…73fbbacked Over | 71c | 942.25$669 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$669 | 7 | 71.4%5 W · 2 L | +0.2wins | +0.03per pick | 69cpaid | +9.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7066…50e5backed Over | 79c | 759.17$600 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$600 | 19 | 63.2%12 W · 7 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 63cpaid | +7.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb4d2…ce99backed Over | 33c | 725.88$242 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$241.64 | 53 | 45.3%24 W · 29 L | +0.5wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0d2d…7ff5backed Over | 77c | 698.76$536 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$536.42 | 84 | 51.2%43 W · 41 L | -1.1wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2831…e84dbacked Over | 62c | 599.3$372 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$371.57 | 31 | 54.8%17 W · 14 L | -1.4wins | -0.04per pick | 59cpaid | -14.1%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x32f2…7830backed Over | 63c | 559.98$350 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$350.09 | 22 | 72.7%16 W · 6 L | +4.0wins | +0.18per pick | 54cpaid | +49.1%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x399f…e8d8backed Under | 36c | 548.05$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$348.05 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | +12.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x54e8…5e6bbacked Over | 70c | 500$350 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$350 | 10 | 60%6 W · 4 L | -1.0wins | -0.10per pick | 70cpaid | -18.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8c0d…b612backed Over | 66c | 340.76$224 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$224.1 | 142 | 60.6%86 W · 56 L | -1.0wins | -0.01per pick | 61cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf658…655ebacked Under | 60c | 333.33$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$133.33 | 43 | 51.2%22 W · 21 L | -1.2wins | -0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -12.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb36c…8715backed Over | 24c | 240$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.21per pick | 21cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe941…a496backed Over | 62c | 234.62$145 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$144.72 | 73 | 65.8%48 W · 25 L | +8.5wins | +0.12per pick | 54cpaid | +16.7%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x84ad…bfb7backed Under | 44c | 216.95$96 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$120.6 | 640 | 43.9%281 W · 359 L | -9.7wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -17.6%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5c8f…d581backed Over | 35c | 199.99$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70 | 73 | 38.4%28 W · 45 L | +1.9wins | +0.03per pick | 36cpaid | +11.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x22ae…af00backed Over | 67c | 189.14$127 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$126.51 | 19 | 68.4%13 W · 6 L | +1.3wins | +0.07per pick | 61cpaid | +14.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2f26…0d8fbacked Over | 25c | 162.65$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.66 | 105 | 49.5%52 W · 53 L | +2.7wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x39b2…9460backed Under | 7c | 153.75$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$142.99 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | +1.4wins | +0.18per pick | 7cpaid | +200.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4a4b…bbcabacked Over | 49c | 150$74 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$73.5 | 346 | 55.5%192 W · 154 L | +9.8wins | +0.03per pick | 53cpaid | +4.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1155…2315backed Over | 80c | 140$112 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$112 | 9 | 66.7%6 W · 3 L | -0.9wins | -0.10per pick | 77cpaid | -13.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdb83…1e50backed Under | 23c | 135.15$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$104.05 | 264 | 45.5%120 W · 144 L | -2.7wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4871…0742backed Over | 80c | 125$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 24 | 66.7%16 W · 8 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 67cpaid | -11.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x10e0…cd46backed Over | 26c | 112.96$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.37 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.9wins | -0.44per pick | 44cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5df5…c44cbacked Over | 57c | 107.07$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60.97 | 147 | 55.8%82 W · 65 L | +5.9wins | +0.04per pick | 52cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xade7…9d34backed Over | 48c | 100$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.6 | 33 | 66.7%22 W · 11 L | +2.8wins | +0.09per pick | 58cpaid | +16.2%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa203…11bcbacked Under | 41c | 80.12$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.27 | 15 | 46.7%7 W · 8 L | +0.5wins | +0.03per pick | 43cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8534…34d2backed Over | 68c | 80$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.2 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.17per pick | 67cpaid | -24.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5e0f…c18cbacked Under | 19c | 77.75$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$62.75 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | +1.1wins | +0.16per pick | 42cpaid | +87.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9154…8f2dbacked Over | 29c | 76.81$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.19 | 59 | 42.4%25 W · 34 L | +2.7wins | +0.05per pick | 38cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbaa8…645bbacked Over | 71c | 70$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.7 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | -0.4wins | -0.05per pick | 30cpaid | -34.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfdae…6ad2backed Over | 72c | 69.44$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 30 | 56.7%17 W · 13 L | -2.7wins | -0.09per pick | 66cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf57c…66febacked Under | 53c | 63.66$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.66 | 11 | 9.1%1 W · 10 L | -1.9wins | -0.18per pick | 27cpaid | -83%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x04fa…70eebacked Under | 29c | 61.41$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.54 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.71per pick | 29cpaid | +243.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4241…bfefbacked Over | 55c | 60$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.1 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.55per pick | 55cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd53c…5194backed Over | 46c | 60$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.8 | 26 | 26.9%7 W · 19 L | -3.2wins | -0.12per pick | 39cpaid | -40.8%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x7fb9…2772backed Over | 54c | 50$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27 | 17 | 29.4%5 W · 12 L | -3.0wins | -0.17per pick | 47cpaid | -44%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x2dad…a040backed Over | 69c | 50$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.5 | 61 | 82%50 W · 11 L | +7.9wins | +0.13per pick | 69cpaid | +18.9%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xb74f…2eb3backed Over | 45c | 44.22$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.9 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.45per pick | 45cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x948b…a188backed Under | 78c | 43.23$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.7 | 185 | 54.1%100 W · 85 L | -4.2wins | -0.02per pick | 56cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe479…70dfbacked Under | 48c | 41.67$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.67 | 25 | 28%7 W · 18 L | -2.1wins | -0.08per pick | 36cpaid | +6.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3946…b565backed Under | 49c | 41.18$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.18 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.3wins | +0.05per pick | 55cpaid | +19.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbe0c…c0cdbacked Under | 40c | 40.3$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.18 | 30 | 70%21 W · 9 L | +5.2wins | +0.17per pick | 53cpaid | +20.1%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x2c46…dac9backed Over | 73c | 37.1$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.96 | 395 | 58.7%232 W · 163 L | +27.4wins | +0.07per pick | 52cpaid | +15.4%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x82a5…674ebacked Over | 57c | 35.73$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.4 | 60 | 46.7%28 W · 32 L | -2.6wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -16.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4fad…fdc0backed Over | 46c | 35.38$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.26 | 36 | 27.8%10 W · 26 L | +1.8wins | +0.05per pick | 23cpaid | -13.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x88bf…0933backed Under | 65c | 35$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.2 | 8 | 87.5%7 W · 1 L | +2.0wins | +0.25per pick | 62cpaid | +56.4%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xcf00…353fbacked Over | 77c | 34.38$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.3 | 75 | 32%24 W · 51 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 32cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3622…083dbacked Over | 66c | 30.3$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 14 | 50%7 W · 7 L | +0.4wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | +1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa24f…7c58backed Over | 56c | 30$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.95 | 29 | 55.2%16 W · 13 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7737…7851backed Over | 50c | 30$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.8wins | -0.38per pick | 38cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfc33…729cbacked Over | 70c | 28.92$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.32 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.8wins | -0.61per pick | 61cpaid | -100%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xc252…0aebbacked Over | 72c | 28.57$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.57 | 18 | 61.1%11 W · 7 L | -0.8wins | -0.05per pick | 66cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x03ba…bebabacked Over | 57c | 28.2$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.18 | 74 | 55.4%41 W · 33 L | +4.0wins | +0.05per pick | 50cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8a81…a86bbacked Over | 72c | 27.78$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 83 | 66.3%55 W · 28 L | -1.5wins | -0.02per pick | 68cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6641…fccdbacked Under | 64c | 25$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.37per pick | 64cpaid | +57.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5c18…c208backed Over | 72c | 25$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 54 | 61.1%33 W · 21 L | +3.8wins | +0.07per pick | 54cpaid | +18.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa6d7…d801backed Over | 65c | 23.19$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 31 | 41.9%13 W · 18 L | -3.3wins | -0.10per pick | 52cpaid | -17.5%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x7aba…7b0cbacked Over | 59c | 21$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.39 | 20 | 45%9 W · 11 L | -0.9wins | -0.05per pick | 50cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc75b…3ea7backed Under | 79c | 15.49$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.22 | 106 | 47.2%50 W · 56 L | -1.8wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +6.7%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Bundesliga and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 9 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- VfL Wolfsburg vs. FC Bayern München: O/U 1.5this page
- Spread: FC Bayern München (-1.5)VfL Wolfsburg won
- Spread: FC Bayern München (-2.5)VfL Wolfsburg won
- Spread: VfL Wolfsburg (-1.5)FC Bayern München won
- Spread: VfL Wolfsburg (-2.5)FC Bayern München won
- VfL Wolfsburg vs. FC Bayern München: Both Teams to ScoreNo won
- VfL Wolfsburg vs. FC Bayern München: O/U 2.5Under won
- VfL Wolfsburg vs. FC Bayern München: O/U 3.5Under won
- VfL Wolfsburg vs. FC Bayern München: O/U 4.5Under won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.