Bundesliga · resolved market
VfL Wolfsburg vs. FC Bayern München: Both Teams to Score
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x3a8b6a48fc561413d878222a342a31e5ef670accf9c79ca0ae9cf9db385c5e7f
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Bundesligaevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $13,434
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $13,131
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $13,434 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 60 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Bundesliga is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Bundesliga | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x204f…5e14backed No | 59c | 6,375$3,766 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,608.95 | 3,284 | 42.6%1,399 W · 1,885 L | -74.0wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -18.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6df1…ea12backed Yes | 45c | 3,000$1,350 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,349.99 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.18per pick | 51cpaid | -44.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xec59…bb35backed Yes | 45c | 2,000$890 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$889.99 | 67 | 62.7%42 W · 25 L | +2.2wins | +0.03per pick | 59cpaid | +8.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdb83…1e50backed No | 55c | 587.5$323 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$264.6 | 264 | 45.5%120 W · 144 L | -2.7wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x00a0…bf76backed Yes | 22c | 548$121 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$120.56 | 37 | 40.5%15 W · 22 L | +2.9wins | +0.08per pick | 33cpaid | +26.7%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8953…9b78backed No | 79c | 500$395 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$105 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 60cpaid | +14.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbd99…c06cbacked Yes | 73c | 418.11$306 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$306.4 | 12 | 58.3%7 W · 5 L | -0.3wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x424e…263bbacked No | 28c | 399.98$112 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$287.99 | 287 | 55.1%158 W · 129 L | +12.3wins | +0.04per pick | 51cpaid | +8.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3ac2…f949backed Yes | 72c | 347.22$250 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$250 | 49 | 65.3%32 W · 17 L | +1.4wins | +0.03per pick | 63cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaf5b…5d3abacked Yes | 42c | 288.29$121 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$121 | 13 | 69.2%9 W · 4 L | +0.4wins | +0.03per pick | 66cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcf00…353fbacked Yes | 45c | 287.33$129 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$128.93 | 75 | 32%24 W · 51 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 32cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3b5c…126ebacked No | 28c | 259.61$73 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$186.92 | 271 | 38.4%104 W · 167 L | -9.0wins | -0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -17%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf57c…66febacked Yes | 23c | 213.04$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49 | 11 | 9.1%1 W · 10 L | -1.9wins | -0.18per pick | 27cpaid | -83%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x22ae…af00backed Yes | 52c | 200$104 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$104 | 19 | 68.4%13 W · 6 L | +1.3wins | +0.07per pick | 61cpaid | +14.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5c8f…d581backed Yes | 24c | 193.98$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.74 | 73 | 38.4%28 W · 45 L | +1.9wins | +0.03per pick | 36cpaid | +11.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0d2d…7ff5backed Yes | 49c | 185.77$90 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$90.27 | 84 | 51.2%43 W · 41 L | -1.1wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbd73…4da1backed Yes | 29c | 168.34$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.82 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -1.0wins | -0.20per pick | 20cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Yes | 31c | 146.18$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.04 | 2,538 | 39.8%1,009 W · 1,529 L | -8.1wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xba67…4727backed No | 28c | 145$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$104.4 | 157 | 47.1%74 W · 83 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3486…49eebacked Yes | 72c | 138.89$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 199 | 43.2%86 W · 113 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3a6e…9bc5backed Yes | 72c | 138.65$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99.83 | 54 | 68.5%37 W · 17 L | +2.9wins | +0.05per pick | 63cpaid | +8.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb69f…3c2bbacked Yes | 51c | 136.9$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70 | 66 | 65.2%43 W · 23 L | +4.7wins | +0.07per pick | 58cpaid | +10.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x01c7…e995backed No | 62c | 135.36$83 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.96 | 1,013 | 44.5%451 W · 562 L | -8.2wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -20.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x77bc…b91bbacked No | 28c | 110.68$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$79.69 | 1,305 | 40.8%532 W · 773 L | -42.3wins | -0.03per pick | 44cpaid | -21.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x17b6…af55backed Yes | 72c | 105.88$76 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$76.23 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | -0.5wins | -0.06per pick | 69cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x014c…38ccbacked No | 29c | 102.93$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$73.08 | 49 | 69.4%34 W · 15 L | +8.6wins | +0.18per pick | 52cpaid | +48.6%equal weight | 63+0.12 edge/pick |
| 0x7d0c…a3b7backed Yes | 71c | 102.93$73 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$73.08 | 496 | 47.4%235 W · 261 L | +2.0wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x923c…6d03backed Yes | 54c | 101.39$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.75 | 51 | 31.4%16 W · 35 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 32cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3b68…0060backed Yes | 72c | 100$72 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$72 | 12 | 58.3%7 W · 5 L | -0.4wins | -0.04per pick | 62cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x53ac…4025backed Yes | 63c | 100$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf693…995ebacked No | 29c | 100$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$71 | 38 | 47.4%18 W · 20 L | +3.2wins | +0.09per pick | 39cpaid | +40.8%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x608d…3933backed No | 28c | 99.99$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$71.99 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +11.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7138…8c89backed No | 28c | 95.89$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$69.04 | 113 | 38.9%44 W · 69 L | -3.7wins | -0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -9.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4676…1639backed No | 31c | 93.39$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$64.44 | 41 | 34.1%14 W · 27 L | -4.1wins | -0.10per pick | 44cpaid | -24.5%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5bda…17a8backed Yes | 71c | 81.21$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.66 | 42 | 52.4%22 W · 20 L | +1.4wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +17.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6a2c…32bcbacked Yes | 67c | 74.63$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 16 | 31.3%5 W · 11 L | -2.5wins | -0.16per pick | 47cpaid | -40.3%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5929…4684backed Yes | 15c | 74.48$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.11 | 43 | 48.8%21 W · 22 L | -1.5wins | -0.04per pick | 52cpaid | -17.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9ba6…cd3ebacked Yes | 41c | 69$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.1 | 16 | 56.3%9 W · 7 L | -0.3wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -9.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x89e6…5501backed No | 55c | 66.66$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.11per pick | 44cpaid | -39.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2b35…0bfebacked Yes | 72c | 60$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.2 | 31 | 67.7%21 W · 10 L | +1.8wins | +0.06per pick | 62cpaid | +18.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x69e7…7cb7backed Yes | 69c | 56.52$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39 | 117 | 51.3%60 W · 57 L | -9.2wins | -0.08per pick | 59cpaid | -18.6%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x8a81…a86bbacked Yes | 62c | 56.34$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35 | 83 | 66.3%55 W · 28 L | -1.5wins | -0.02per pick | 68cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2c46…dac9backed Yes | 46c | 55.8$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.57 | 395 | 58.7%232 W · 163 L | +27.4wins | +0.07per pick | 52cpaid | +15.4%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xfa2e…c5d2backed Yes | 72c | 51$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.72 | 17 | 64.7%11 W · 6 L | -0.8wins | -0.05per pick | 69cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7737…7851backed Yes | 25c | 50$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.5 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.8wins | -0.38per pick | 38cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x380c…1099backed Yes | 61c | 40$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.2 | 130 | 73.1%95 W · 35 L | +9.9wins | +0.08per pick | 65cpaid | +12.1%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x7328…7f6cbacked No | 74c | 38.8$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.09 | 22 | 27.3%6 W · 16 L | -2.3wins | -0.10per pick | 38cpaid | -48%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x325f…4511backed No | 67c | 34.07$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.35 | 531 | 40.7%216 W · 315 L | -13.3wins | -0.03per pick | 43cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x29a5…a3c4backed No | 67c | 33.83$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.07 | 109 | 56%61 W · 48 L | +3.0wins | +0.03per pick | 53cpaid | +4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd92e…fcbdbacked No | 62c | 32.26$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.26 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | +1.2wins | +0.15per pick | 47cpaid | +27.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2f1a…7c47backed Yes | 53c | 30$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.9 | 64 | 59.4%38 W · 26 L | +2.4wins | +0.04per pick | 56cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3110…c3f5backed Yes | 72c | 27.78$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 33 | 66.7%22 W · 11 L | +2.9wins | +0.09per pick | 58cpaid | +14.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x157a…e4a3backed Yes | 72c | 27.78$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 79 | 58.2%46 W · 33 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 58cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1b44…6e8dbacked Yes | 72c | 27.78$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -1.8wins | -0.29per pick | 63cpaid | -45.4%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf7a6…aed7backed No | 67c | 22.54$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.54 | 16 | 81.3%13 W · 3 L | +2.7wins | +0.17per pick | 64cpaid | +26.9%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xd7f9…29a9backed No | 52c | 20.15$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.6 | 111 | 59.5%66 W · 45 L | +7.4wins | +0.07per pick | 53cpaid | +9.2%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa5ba…9fbcbacked Yes | 72c | 20$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.4 | 7 | 85.7%6 W · 1 L | +1.2wins | +0.18per pick | 68cpaid | +27.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd53c…5194backed Yes | 51c | 20$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.2 | 26 | 26.9%7 W · 19 L | -3.2wins | -0.12per pick | 39cpaid | -40.8%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xd37a…2358backed Yes | 69c | 16.13$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.13 | 624 | 52.6%328 W · 296 L | -9.9wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbf58…1517backed Yes | 64c | 15.63$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.64per pick | 64cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Bundesliga and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 9 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- VfL Wolfsburg vs. FC Bayern München: Both Teams to Scorethis page
- Spread: FC Bayern München (-1.5)VfL Wolfsburg won
- Spread: FC Bayern München (-2.5)VfL Wolfsburg won
- Spread: VfL Wolfsburg (-1.5)FC Bayern München won
- Spread: VfL Wolfsburg (-2.5)FC Bayern München won
- VfL Wolfsburg vs. FC Bayern München: O/U 1.5Under won
- VfL Wolfsburg vs. FC Bayern München: O/U 2.5Under won
- VfL Wolfsburg vs. FC Bayern München: O/U 3.5Under won
- VfL Wolfsburg vs. FC Bayern München: O/U 4.5Under won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.