TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Fifa International · resolved market

Canada vs. Morocco: O/U 1.5

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Overof Over, Under
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Fifa Internationalevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$2,128,624
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$2,277,862

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $2,128,624 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 1,103 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Fifa International is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Fifa International
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x204f…5e14backed Under41c190,671$78,794 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$78,794.124,59540.3%1,850 W · 2,745 L-91.3wins-0.02per pick42cpaid-23.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x1d2e…896dbacked Over37c118,565$44,455 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$74,110.1114843.2%64 W · 84 L-3.0wins-0.02per pick45cpaid-2.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xb340…1ad1backed Over72c100,474$71,873 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$28,601.023167.7%21 W · 10 L+0.7wins+0.02per pick65cpaid+14.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x076d…8d4cbacked Under41c97,681$40,351 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$40,350.722,27139.5%896 W · 1,375 L+10.1wins0.00per pick39cpaid+1.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x122b…ac59backed Over59c71,543$41,935 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$29,607.1624533.5%82 W · 163 L-3.7wins-0.01per pick35cpaid-20.3%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x2005…75eabacked Over56c66,549$36,936 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$29,612.783,69636.9%1,364 W · 2,332 L-44.0wins-0.01per pick38cpaid-23.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xcc32…92d2backed Over71c62,738$44,544 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$18,194.0710355.3%57 W · 46 L+2.2wins+0.02per pick53cpaid+1.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x0346…52a5backed Under42c47,365$19,967 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19,967.22,40737.7%908 W · 1,499 L-48.7wins-0.02per pick40cpaid-25.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xe301…8654backed Under37c40,418$15,024 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15,023.5744130.8%136 W · 305 L-11.6wins-0.03per pick33cpaid-29.2%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xe907…cff6backed Over67c36,449$24,292 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$12,157.018,61429.2%2,518 W · 6,096 L-166.6wins-0.02per pick31cpaid-32.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x62ca…1760backed Under62c31,650$19,669 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19,669.4525844.6%115 W · 143 L-1.5wins-0.01per pick45cpaid-1.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x84cf…2f63backed Under46c30,449$14,033 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14,032.92,43929%707 W · 1,732 L-65.3wins-0.03per pick32cpaid-21%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x2a69…d2f7backed Under34c20,018$6,749 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6,748.623,99224.9%994 W · 2,998 L-47.0wins-0.01per pick26cpaid-19.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xc3c3…eec8backed Over48c20,000$9,500 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$10,50027039.6%107 W · 163 L-3.5wins-0.01per pick41cpaid-3.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x07d8…294abacked Over71c19,626$13,982 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5,644.695841.4%24 W · 34 L-1.7wins-0.03per pick44cpaid-11.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x7b10…acabbacked Under39c17,967$7,029 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$7,028.5816357.1%93 W · 70 L+11.0wins+0.07per pick50cpaid+18.6%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xfe78…0319backed Over54c17,117$9,229 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7,887.81,14439.2%448 W · 696 L-8.4wins-0.01per pick40cpaid-14.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x613b…823abacked Under33c17,098$5,570 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5,569.8214250%71 W · 71 L+3.4wins+0.02per pick48cpaid+5.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x2117…5c26backed Over71c16,751$11,853 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,897.721,98532.5%645 W · 1,340 L-47.7wins-0.02per pick35cpaid-13.4%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x8d06…7910backed Over65c16,510$10,752 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5,757.7714343.4%62 W · 81 L-2.8wins-0.02per pick45cpaid-15.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x1ab8…1b4abacked Over54c15,978$8,703 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7,275.6339644.7%177 W · 219 L+2.2wins+0.01per pick44cpaid-22.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xe524…d34fbacked Over70c15,971$11,180 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,791.4414553.8%78 W · 67 L+9.1wins+0.06per pick48cpaid+12%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x9db8…2effbacked Under33c14,700$4,859 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,85920731.4%65 W · 142 L+1.1wins+0.01per pick31cpaid-1.6%equal weight510.00 edge/pick
0x3f3a…e8fdbacked Under38c14,681$5,530 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5,529.5142541.6%177 W · 248 L+1.8wins0.00per pick41cpaid-2.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf070…ac55backed Over70c14,300$10,010 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,29014045.7%64 W · 76 L+0.6wins0.00per pick45cpaid-3.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc29e…a2cabacked Over38c12,000$4,560 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7,4403441.2%14 W · 20 L-2.0wins-0.06per pick47cpaid-27%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x2ec5…fd53backed Under49c11,335$5,500 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5,499.9644539.6%176 W · 269 L-5.5wins-0.01per pick41cpaid-14.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x200e…38b3backed Under63c10,778$6,790 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6,790.452437.5%9 W · 15 L-1.7wins-0.07per pick45cpaid-22.5%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xf519…906bbacked Over70c10,000$7,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,999.9717842.7%76 W · 102 L-0.4wins0.00per pick43cpaid-1.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2c33…0563backed Under31c9,958$3,057 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,056.6774752.2%390 W · 357 L+2.4wins0.00per pick52cpaid-1.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x224a…a3d5backed Over43c9,528$4,060 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5,468.2177152.8%407 W · 364 L+17.7wins+0.02per pick50cpaid+1.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x6d3c…d294backed Under29c9,311$2,667 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,667.211,26247.5%600 W · 662 L-15.8wins-0.01per pick49cpaid-2.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe4fc…8af7backed Under28c9,000$2,560 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,559.9750243.4%218 W · 284 L-9.0wins-0.02per pick45cpaid-9.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xde0f…ddd3backed Over45c8,605$3,852 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,752.535743.9%25 W · 32 L+4.6wins+0.08per pick36cpaid+38.2%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x4133…e7a9backed Under29c8,400$2,436 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,435.9544144%194 W · 247 L-6.1wins-0.01per pick45cpaid-7.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xfec6…b86cbacked Under40c8,397$3,360 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,360.137650.8%191 W · 185 L-12.2wins-0.03per pick54cpaid-13.4%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xa697…59d5backed Under29c8,327$2,402 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,401.932,80555.1%1,546 W · 1,259 L+70.4wins+0.03per pick53cpaid+4.1%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x10a6…4d8bbacked Under53c8,091$4,301 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,301.3764446.4%299 W · 345 L-6.2wins-0.01per pick47cpaid+0.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x09dd…7e13backed Over46c7,841$3,625 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,215.1137944.1%167 W · 212 L+0.7wins0.00per pick44cpaid-12.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd99f…4768backed Over71c7,746$5,500 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,246.4814347.6%68 W · 75 L-1.8wins-0.01per pick49cpaid-12.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2f5b…e747backed Under29c7,675$2,189 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,189.0748441.9%203 W · 281 L-16.8wins-0.03per pick45cpaid-15.4%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x60ba…3c6cbacked Under28c7,500$2,110 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,109.9847144.8%211 W · 260 L-4.7wins-0.01per pick46cpaid-8.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x86f4…bd70backed Under63c7,350$4,631 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,630.56056.7%34 W · 26 L-0.1wins0.00per pick57cpaid+0.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x224f…514abacked Under30c6,944$2,061 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,061.341,53649.1%754 W · 782 L+32.8wins+0.02per pick47cpaid+3.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x7ea5…de7bbacked Under29c6,924$1,980 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,980.331,56043.8%684 W · 876 L-4.4wins0.00per pick44cpaid-3.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5d75…3d44backed Under42c6,748$2,844 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,844.2210851.9%56 W · 52 L+3.8wins+0.03per pick48cpaid+6.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x66ec…0ad6backed Over37c6,742$2,500 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,241.843250%16 W · 16 L-0.5wins-0.02per pick52cpaid-12.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa2e8…0153backed Over68c6,471$4,400 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,070.591844.4%8 W · 10 L-2.8wins-0.15per pick60cpaid-32.8%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x52d9…fb1abacked Over51c6,433$3,272 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,160.941,94135.5%690 W · 1,251 L-25.4wins-0.01per pick37cpaid-11.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf7f0…912cbacked Under29c6,144$1,802 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,802.241,87348.4%906 W · 967 L+14.4wins+0.01per pick48cpaid-0.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x459b…f771backed Under63c6,105$3,847 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,846.579243.5%40 W · 52 L-3.0wins-0.03per pick47cpaid-7.9%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x1418…6fefbacked Under29c6,000$1,710 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,709.9847643.3%206 W · 270 L-10.9wins-0.02per pick46cpaid-11%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xbf83…3385backed Over46c5,632$2,575 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,056.3231545.4%143 W · 172 L+3.4wins+0.01per pick44cpaid+0.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xd0e6…9b21backed Over64c5,518$3,528 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,990.5825339.5%100 W · 153 L+8.5wins+0.03per pick36cpaid-3.7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xc291…5d74backed Under40c5,406$2,166 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,166.024,45737.2%1,657 W · 2,800 L+31.0wins+0.01per pick36cpaid-8.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x0d2d…7ff5backed Over59c5,309$3,112 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,197.252,30737.6%867 W · 1,440 L-16.7wins-0.01per pick38cpaid-27.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x24ae…4c80backed Under23c5,195$1,195 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,194.814856.8%84 W · 64 L+20.7wins+0.14per pick43cpaid+59.5%equal weight63+0.12 edge/pick
0x21d5…442bbacked Over69c5,159$3,560 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,599.4210949.5%54 W · 55 L-0.4wins0.00per pick50cpaid+1.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x07ea…a6babacked Over68c5,147$3,500 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,647.0635244%155 W · 197 L-4.0wins-0.01per pick45cpaid-12.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x228b…af4cbacked Under48c5,082$2,457 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,456.822,97328%831 W · 2,142 L-132.5wins-0.04per pick32cpaid-39%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xae95…7adabacked Over60c5,000$3,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,0002070%14 W · 6 L+2.0wins+0.10per pick60cpaid+34.6%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x8adb…e4f6backed Over70c5,000$3,500 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,499.995841.4%24 W · 34 L-5.3wins-0.09per pick51cpaid-26.3%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x0079…1139backed Over71c4,930$3,500 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,429.583855.3%21 W · 17 L-2.3wins-0.06per pick61cpaid-18.3%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xe57d…bf4cbacked Over61c4,858$2,942 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,915.9921722.1%48 W · 169 L+1.6wins+0.01per pick21cpaid+23.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x04f8…c9e9backed Over64c4,699$3,007 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,691.652552%13 W · 12 L+0.4wins+0.02per pick50cpaid-3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xe34a…f5f0backed Over38c4,660$1,787 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,872.699848%47 W · 51 L+4.5wins+0.05per pick43cpaid+9.3%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x032e…2a9ebacked Over70c4,565$3,195 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,369.42,60337.8%984 W · 1,619 L-40.7wins-0.02per pick39cpaid-9.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xdb3a…d1ccbacked Under37c4,533$1,686 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,686.4322933.6%77 W · 152 L+6.6wins+0.03per pick31cpaid+2.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xbe80…0784backed Under62c4,500$2,790 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,7904351.2%22 W · 21 L+1.1wins+0.03per pick49cpaid+8.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xb113…8bc6backed Under28c4,444$1,244 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,244.3131851.9%165 W · 153 L+16.3wins+0.05per pick47cpaid+9.6%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xefde…6505backed Over70c4,343$3,040 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,303.0268141.1%280 W · 401 L-16.0wins-0.02per pick43cpaid-6.1%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xf95d…cdcabacked Over68c4,277$2,908 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,368.621040%4 W · 6 L-1.6wins-0.16per pick56cpaid-45.3%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x4f29…7a7ebacked Over47c4,240$1,981 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,259.181,22443.4%531 W · 693 L-7.1wins-0.01per pick44cpaid-13.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x3baf…7d44backed Over64c4,211$2,685 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,526.0127032.2%87 W · 183 L-3.6wins-0.01per pick34cpaid-6.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xc444…20dabacked Under36c4,206$1,500 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,50013731.4%43 W · 94 L-4.5wins-0.03per pick35cpaid-20.4%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x5846…7beebacked Over71c4,198$2,981 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,217.521050%5 W · 5 L-1.0wins-0.10per pick60cpaid-28.3%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xb589…91e3backed Under48c4,180$2,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,000540%2 W · 3 L+0.4wins+0.07per pick33cpaid+191.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xd6af…f9cdbacked Over72c4,080$2,937 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,142.312055%11 W · 9 L+0.6wins+0.03per pick52cpaid-8.7%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xfa69…02c1backed Under40c4,059$1,615 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,614.6243737.8%165 W · 272 L-0.9wins0.00per pick38cpaid-16.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1b9c…8620backed Under36c3,987$1,453 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,452.8533740.4%136 W · 201 L-1.7wins-0.01per pick41cpaid-24.8%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0x7e45…5b61backed Over64c3,964$2,537 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,427.146154.1%33 W · 28 L+1.4wins+0.02per pick52cpaid+5.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xbcb8…3058backed Under41c3,900$1,599 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,5997153.5%38 W · 33 L-1.1wins-0.02per pick55cpaid-3.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa209…ffbebacked Over60c3,737$2,240 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,496.5659453.4%317 W · 277 L+43.8wins+0.07per pick46cpaid+17.5%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0xeefa…f400backed Over66c3,702$2,445 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,256.7619737.6%74 W · 123 L-4.1wins-0.02per pick40cpaid-15.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x1ba2…d212backed Under33c3,653$1,220 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,219.958942.6%251 W · 338 L-5.3wins-0.01per pick44cpaid-12.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x1016…b09bbacked Over58c3,612$2,101 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,510.9524341.2%100 W · 143 L-2.4wins-0.01per pick42cpaid-10.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xc464…5139backed Over60c3,602$2,153 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,44933544.5%149 W · 186 L+4.5wins+0.01per pick43cpaid-4.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x6cfe…c83cbacked Over56c3,521$1,985 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,535.6736234%123 W · 239 L+6.9wins+0.02per pick32cpaid-10.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x2220…1a0fbacked Over51c3,462$1,763 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,699.1819218.8%36 W · 156 L-1.8wins-0.01per pick20cpaid-24.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x8806…2e83backed Under40c3,342$1,337 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,336.9128229.4%83 W · 199 L-6.1wins-0.02per pick32cpaid-38%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x7795…9a17backed Under30c3,333$1,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,00010927.5%30 W · 79 L-1.7wins-0.02per pick29cpaid-20.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x0ef4…f90abacked Over46c3,333$1,533 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,799.827930.4%24 W · 55 L-9.0wins-0.11per pick42cpaid-35.3%equal weight40-0.09 edge/pick
0xac1a…813ebacked Under28c3,294$935 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$934.676648.5%32 W · 34 L-2.6wins-0.04per pick52cpaid-11.6%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xc7c7…44b7backed Over37c3,243$1,200 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,043.247943%34 W · 45 L-2.4wins-0.03per pick46cpaid-7.5%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x5a21…9318backed Under32c3,226$1,022 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,022.132,63432.9%867 W · 1,767 L+43.3wins+0.02per pick31cpaid-19.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xa4fb…0047backed Under64c3,200$2,048 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,047.994344.2%19 W · 24 L-4.6wins-0.11per pick55cpaid-28.2%equal weight43-0.07 edge/pick
0xb56d…d621backed Over64c3,125$2,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,1253966.7%26 W · 13 L+5.3wins+0.14per pick53cpaid+24.6%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x325f…4511backed Over48c3,094$1,496 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,597.821,62732.1%523 W · 1,104 L+4.0wins0.00per pick32cpaid-19.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb8a6…ff0bbacked Over42c3,067$1,289 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,777.662378.3%18 W · 5 L+7.0wins+0.30per pick48cpaid+97.2%equal weight66+0.15 edge/pick
0x56c8…7cc8backed Under63c3,000$1,890 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,89012241%50 W · 72 L-8.3wins-0.07per pick48cpaid-17.3%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Fifa International and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 41 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.