TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Fifa International · resolved market

Canada vs. Morocco: Team to Advance

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Moroccoof Canada, Morocco
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Fifa Internationalevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$8,106,932
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$8,405,153

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $8,106,932 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 3,117 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Fifa International is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Fifa International
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x9f2f…2ca8backed Canada27c1,165,607$320,242 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$320,241.649142.9%39 W · 52 L-3.4wins-0.04per pick47cpaid-21.5%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x6501…1220backed Morocco72c415,124$296,847 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$118,276.954667.4%31 W · 15 L+9.3wins+0.20per pick47cpaid+41.3%equal weight65+0.13 edge/pick
0xe907…cff6backed Morocco71c355,256$253,511 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$101,745.238,61429.2%2,518 W · 6,096 L-166.6wins-0.02per pick31cpaid-32.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x224a…a3d5backed Canada31c326,364$100,071 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$100,071.2777152.8%407 W · 364 L+17.7wins+0.02per pick50cpaid+1.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xe72b…b0a0backed Canada30c281,599$84,480 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$84,479.7622139.8%88 W · 133 L-8.7wins-0.04per pick44cpaid-12.9%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x8b5a…00f2backed Canada27c249,999$67,500 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$67,499.717839.7%31 W · 47 L+2.2wins+0.03per pick37cpaid+4.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x9cb9…32f2backed Canada29c208,052$61,344 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$61,343.6825038.8%97 W · 153 L+6.0wins+0.02per pick36cpaid+5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x4f29…7a7ebacked Canada32c170,593$54,482 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$54,482.341,22443.4%531 W · 693 L-7.1wins-0.01per pick44cpaid-13.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x8fbb…9a17backed Morocco73c162,660$118,139 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$44,521.5717452.3%91 W · 83 L+2.1wins+0.01per pick51cpaid-4.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x2c33…0563backed Canada28c154,148$42,561 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$42,560.8774752.2%390 W · 357 L+2.4wins0.00per pick52cpaid-1.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x20d6…3856backed Canada9c150,647$13,260 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13,260.447126.8%19 W · 52 L-5.1wins-0.07per pick34cpaid-41.5%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xfe78…0319backed Morocco63c149,174$93,461 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$55,713.341,14439.2%448 W · 696 L-8.4wins-0.01per pick40cpaid-14.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xef27…381bbacked Morocco72c137,964$100,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$37,963.791040%4 W · 6 L-1.3wins-0.13per pick53cpaid-32.3%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xfaa2…e80abacked Morocco71c135,603$96,178 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$39,424.9613959.7%83 W · 56 L+2.8wins+0.02per pick58cpaid-1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x088b…21ccbacked Canada41c133,004$54,532 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$54,531.735040%20 W · 30 L-2.7wins-0.05per pick45cpaid-2.4%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x29b1…f737backed Morocco72c126,183$90,852 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$35,331.31060%6 W · 4 L+0.4wins+0.04per pick56cpaid+5.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x3dfb…abafbacked Canada30c124,040$36,905 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$36,905.1342345.6%193 W · 230 L+10.8wins+0.03per pick43cpaid+1.5%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xa080…234fbacked Morocco70c121,090$84,763 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$36,326.9415950.3%80 W · 79 L-1.0wins-0.01per pick51cpaid+1.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xbc1b…9d59backed Morocco72c120,000$86,200 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$33,799.995967.8%40 W · 19 L+2.6wins+0.04per pick63cpaid+9.2%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xa38a…821dbacked Morocco59c115,520$68,481 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$47,039.0949441.5%205 W · 289 L+27.7wins+0.06per pick36cpaid+13.8%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xec44…c92bbacked Canada28c114,128$31,956 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$31,955.918521.2%18 W · 67 L+0.1wins0.00per pick21cpaid+13.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6d3c…d294backed Canada28c113,453$31,505 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$31,505.071,26247.5%600 W · 662 L-15.8wins-0.01per pick49cpaid-2.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x087d…b872backed Canada29c104,000$30,160 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30,1609845.9%45 W · 53 L-2.3wins-0.02per pick48cpaid+0.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x51ea…150fbacked Morocco71c100,045$71,032 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$29,012.9919332.1%62 W · 131 L-2.2wins-0.01per pick33cpaid+2.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf152…64aabacked Morocco73c100,000$73,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$27,0005263.5%33 W · 19 L+3.3wins+0.06per pick57cpaid+6.5%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x7e5e…7315backed Canada26c99,999$26,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25,999.696114.8%9 W · 52 L-6.1wins-0.10per pick25cpaid-46.4%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0xf0b6…2fefbacked Morocco73c95,890$70,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$25,890.413971.8%28 W · 11 L+4.4wins+0.11per pick60cpaid+13.7%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x2117…5c26backed Canada29c84,673$24,555 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$24,555.171,98532.5%645 W · 1,340 L-47.7wins-0.02per pick35cpaid-13.4%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x7650…fac1backed Morocco73c83,350$60,499 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$22,850.374153.7%22 W · 19 L-0.9wins-0.02per pick56cpaid-3.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xc15b…38afbacked Morocco72c80,000$57,600 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$22,399.963063.3%19 W · 11 L+1.2wins+0.04per pick59cpaid+7.8%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x39d3…9ef0backed Canada31c70,573$21,533 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$21,532.5829740.1%119 W · 178 L+1.7wins+0.01per pick39cpaid-0.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x1b47…d814backed Canada37c67,605$24,911 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$24,910.7456541.1%232 W · 333 L-9.4wins-0.02per pick43cpaid-11.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xe7a2…ae70backed Canada27c55,810$15,069 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15,068.638932.6%29 W · 60 L-10.7wins-0.12per pick45cpaid-30.7%equal weight40-0.09 edge/pick
0x1136…0c2ebacked Canada28c50,000$14,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14,0006627.3%18 W · 48 L-3.2wins-0.05per pick32cpaid-44.8%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xc41d…74fdbacked Canada35c49,000$17,150 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17,15014139%55 W · 86 L-4.9wins-0.03per pick42cpaid-7.5%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xa49b…4c40backed Morocco76c47,000$35,880 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$11,120.347433.8%25 W · 49 L-0.5wins-0.01per pick34cpaid-40%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0xe524…d34fbacked Canada28c45,000$12,600 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12,599.9814553.8%78 W · 67 L+9.1wins+0.06per pick48cpaid+12%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x54b5…4b31backed Canada30c44,105$13,231 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13,231.3721444.4%95 W · 119 L+8.5wins+0.04per pick40cpaid+3.3%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xccd8…f4debacked Morocco71c43,870$31,005 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$12,864.431172.7%8 W · 3 L+1.0wins+0.09per pick63cpaid+9.9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x5257…3e2abacked Canada29c43,200$12,528 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12,5289948.5%48 W · 51 L+3.6wins+0.04per pick45cpaid-2.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x4572…5e86backed Canada28c42,099$11,747 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11,746.811642.2%49 W · 67 L+4.6wins+0.04per pick38cpaid+37.9%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x38ce…1581backed Canada28c41,903$11,594 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11,593.835234.6%18 W · 34 L-3.4wins-0.07per pick41cpaid-37.3%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x2ada…2f28backed Canada1c40,874$316 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$316.386929%20 W · 49 L-1.3wins-0.02per pick31cpaid-33.3%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x5ad7…ae48backed Morocco73c40,000$29,200 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$10,8004355.8%24 W · 19 L+1.0wins+0.02per pick54cpaid+0.6%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xab6a…2978backed Canada22c39,703$8,536 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$8,536.312352.2%12 W · 11 L+0.7wins+0.03per pick49cpaid-11.1%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x1f90…21fabacked Canada27c37,675$10,173 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10,172.934057.5%23 W · 17 L+3.8wins+0.10per pick48cpaid+17.2%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x160d…5295backed Canada27c37,392$10,096 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10,095.86546.2%30 W · 35 L+2.8wins+0.04per pick42cpaid+11.9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xb915…8da5backed Canada28c37,000$10,360 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10,36010%0 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.28per pick28cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x7efe…2e32backed Morocco72c35,673$25,685 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$9,988.471464.3%9 W · 5 L+1.5wins+0.11per pick54cpaid+33.8%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xd3e7…ea94backed Morocco72c34,722$25,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$9,722.2213725.5%35 W · 102 L-2.1wins-0.01per pick27cpaid-32.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x032e…2a9ebacked Canada27c34,652$9,356 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$9,356.072,60337.8%984 W · 1,619 L-40.7wins-0.02per pick39cpaid-9.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x6f3e…bcf8backed Canada28c33,333$9,333 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$9,333.245240.4%21 W · 31 L+3.0wins+0.06per pick35cpaid-1.9%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xecbe…42ffbacked Canada13c32,000$4,190 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,189.9914715.6%23 W · 124 L-0.3wins0.00per pick16cpaid+19.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x93aa…4ab1backed Morocco72c31,765$22,871 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8,894.171464.3%9 W · 5 L+0.3wins+0.02per pick62cpaid-5.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x68df…4815backed Canada40c30,134$12,204 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12,203.721450%7 W · 7 L-0.1wins-0.01per pick51cpaid-15.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd849…6ac7backed Morocco70c28,800$20,160 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8,6402176.2%16 W · 5 L+1.6wins+0.08per pick69cpaid+11.1%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x531a…8257backed Morocco73c27,968$20,417 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7,551.32580%4 W · 1 L+1.0wins+0.21per pick59cpaid+13.1%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x71ac…d2b1backed Morocco73c27,397$20,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7,397.261060%6 W · 4 L-1.3wins-0.13per pick73cpaid-19.3%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x447d…5eeabacked Canada27c26,030$7,028 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$7,0287447.3%35 W · 39 L+0.6wins+0.01per pick46cpaid-16.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x85bb…9adabacked Canada40c25,000$10,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10,00032429.9%97 W · 227 L+10.4wins+0.03per pick27cpaid-6.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xdc40…89cfbacked Canada28c25,000$7,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6,999.9712536.8%46 W · 79 L-0.8wins-0.01per pick37cpaid-12%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xc96e…f1f9backed Canada42c24,450$10,269 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10,269.118048.8%39 W · 41 L+5.2wins+0.07per pick42cpaid+27.7%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xa45f…4e8dbacked Canada29c22,400$6,496 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6,4962846.4%13 W · 15 L-0.3wins-0.01per pick47cpaid-22.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xd696…8a49backed Morocco62c21,820$13,585 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8,235.0836250%181 W · 181 L+7.7wins+0.02per pick48cpaid+3.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xc58d…9373backed Morocco58c21,819$12,655 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$9,164.075334%18 W · 35 L+0.4wins+0.01per pick33cpaid+7.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x6978…9897backed Morocco74c20,270$15,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5,270.272665.4%17 W · 9 L+1.2wins+0.05per pick61cpaid+5.9%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xa7a8…580cbacked Morocco73c20,000$14,600 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5,400306.7%2 W · 28 L+0.1wins0.00per pick6cpaid-87.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8627…5382backed Morocco73c20,000$14,600 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5,4006259.7%37 W · 25 L+4.2wins+0.07per pick53cpaid+8.9%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x2805…76edbacked Morocco60c20,000$12,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8,00020448%98 W · 106 L+1.1wins+0.01per pick47cpaid-1%equal weight510.00 edge/pick
0xa0c0…1bedbacked Canada29c20,000$5,780 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5,7806050%30 W · 30 L+4.6wins+0.08per pick42cpaid+56.6%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x73a3…ee24backed Canada41c19,800$8,020 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$8,019.983215.6%5 W · 27 L-0.7wins-0.02per pick18cpaid-42.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa81b…4d36backed Canada9c17,629$1,500 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,5006434.4%22 W · 42 L+3.2wins+0.05per pick29cpaid+2%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xa8ca…d535backed Morocco74c17,568$13,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,567.571450%7 W · 7 L-0.3wins-0.02per pick52cpaid-21.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x9f41…8f27backed Morocco72c16,946$12,141 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,804.2740239.8%160 W · 242 L-13.1wins-0.03per pick43cpaid-19.1%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x5522…c807backed Morocco74c16,700$12,383 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,31716056.3%90 W · 70 L-14.6wins-0.09per pick65cpaid-14.9%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0x6fb4…da84backed Morocco79c16,510$13,042 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,468.233240.6%13 W · 19 L+0.8wins+0.02per pick38cpaid+13.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x222b…1a8dbacked Morocco72c16,464$11,792 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,672.3331945.5%145 W · 174 L-0.8wins0.00per pick46cpaid-28.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6219…aa6fbacked Morocco73c16,213$11,836 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,377.5810057%57 W · 43 L+0.4wins0.00per pick57cpaid-6.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1fce…a7c8backed Morocco73c16,090$11,745 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,344.197032.9%23 W · 47 L+0.7wins+0.01per pick32cpaid-9.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x2f5b…e747backed Canada29c16,000$4,560 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,559.9948441.9%203 W · 281 L-16.8wins-0.03per pick45cpaid-15.4%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x3719…2df0backed Morocco69c15,990$10,981 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5,008.321233.3%4 W · 8 L-1.1wins-0.09per pick42cpaid-30.8%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x5b10…9659backed Morocco73c15,886$11,597 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,289.165962.7%37 W · 22 L+4.3wins+0.07per pick55cpaid+5.6%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xcad4…317abacked Morocco72c15,749$11,325 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,424.2610246.1%47 W · 55 L-3.8wins-0.04per pick50cpaid-19%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x9703…69c2backed Morocco70c15,549$10,935 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,614.0929952.5%157 W · 142 L-2.5wins-0.01per pick53cpaid-1.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x1341…0853backed Morocco71c15,502$11,007 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,495.6553448.5%259 W · 275 L-7.7wins-0.01per pick50cpaid-7%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x7b10…acabbacked Canada29c15,176$4,401 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,401.0416357.1%93 W · 70 L+11.0wins+0.07per pick50cpaid+18.6%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x4e56…dee1backed Morocco66c15,085$9,900 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5,184.752070%14 W · 6 L+4.3wins+0.21per pick49cpaid+35.9%equal weight61+0.09 edge/pick
0x33c1…d177backed Morocco62c15,000$9,300 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5,7003145.2%14 W · 17 L+4.0wins+0.13per pick32cpaid+12.4%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x839e…0d3cbacked Morocco73c15,000$10,950 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,05013639%53 W · 83 L-6.5wins-0.05per pick44cpaid-7.2%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x62ca…1760backed Canada30c14,823$4,447 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,446.825844.6%115 W · 143 L-1.5wins-0.01per pick45cpaid-1.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x7edb…7993backed Morocco72c14,732$10,618 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,114.3442043.1%181 W · 239 L-7.9wins-0.02per pick45cpaid-32.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xe903…6adbbacked Canada27c14,542$3,938 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,937.784341.9%18 W · 25 L-3.2wins-0.08per pick49cpaid-25.4%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x4f27…6d66backed Morocco65c14,444$9,425 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5,019.441190.9%10 W · 1 L+3.2wins+0.29per pick62cpaid+48%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0x969a…59ddbacked Canada28c14,185$3,973 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,972.689247.8%44 W · 48 L-2.9wins-0.03per pick51cpaid+1.4%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x0ade…ed94backed Morocco73c14,000$10,220 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,7801100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.27per pick73cpaid+37%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xa04c…9e3fbacked Morocco72c13,889$10,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,888.894136.6%15 W · 26 L-1.3wins-0.03per pick40cpaid-27.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x1071…169bbacked Morocco72c13,889$10,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,888.892462.5%15 W · 9 L+2.9wins+0.12per pick51cpaid+14.6%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x00c8…9ccdbacked Morocco72c13,889$10,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,888.881,01931.6%322 W · 697 L-10.2wins-0.01per pick33cpaid-17.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf3b0…23a1backed Morocco73c13,699$10,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,698.63988.9%8 W · 1 L+2.7wins+0.30per pick59cpaid+84%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x752e…bfacbacked Morocco60c13,664$8,199 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5,465.671216.7%2 W · 10 L-0.3wins-0.02per pick19cpaid-70.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Fifa International and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 41 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.