TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Fifa International · resolved market

Côte d'Ivoire vs. Norway: Both Teams to Score

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Yesof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Fifa Internationalevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$1,925,375
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$2,263,855

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $1,925,375 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 1,418 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Fifa International is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Fifa International
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x204f…5e14backed No45c176,051$78,988 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$78,988.24,59540.3%1,850 W · 2,745 L-91.3wins-0.02per pick42cpaid-23.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x2643…39aebacked Yes60c164,394$98,637 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$65,757.682864.3%18 W · 10 L+2.0wins+0.07per pick57cpaid+12.2%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x2117…5c26backed Yes58c164,307$95,204 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$69,102.611,98532.5%645 W · 1,340 L-47.7wins-0.02per pick35cpaid-13.4%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xc41d…74fdbacked No41c102,599$42,065 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$42,065.4914139%55 W · 86 L-4.9wins-0.03per pick42cpaid-7.5%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x2c33…0563backed No40c100,000$40,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$40,00074752.2%390 W · 357 L+2.4wins0.00per pick52cpaid-1.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9243…658ebacked No41c99,999$41,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$40,999.6615249.3%75 W · 77 L-3.1wins-0.02per pick51cpaid-5.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xe907…cff6backed Yes57c69,520$39,743 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$29,776.428,61429.2%2,518 W · 6,096 L-166.6wins-0.02per pick31cpaid-32.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x6ae1…1e7ebacked No43c66,379$28,543 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$28,542.8722846.9%107 W · 121 L+2.1wins+0.01per pick46cpaid+7.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xee0b…e6d4backed No40c64,220$25,693 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25,693.336634.8%23 W · 43 L-1.9wins-0.03per pick38cpaid-3.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x032e…2a9ebacked Yes57c49,372$27,925 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$21,446.942,60337.8%984 W · 1,619 L-40.7wins-0.02per pick39cpaid-9.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x5ad7…ae48backed Yes59c35,000$20,650 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$14,3504355.8%24 W · 19 L+1.0wins+0.02per pick54cpaid+0.6%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x9db8…2effbacked No41c27,600$11,316 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11,315.8420731.4%65 W · 142 L+1.1wins+0.01per pick31cpaid-1.6%equal weight510.00 edge/pick
0xa66c…cd67backed Yes56c26,972$14,971 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$12,000.6918047.8%86 W · 94 L+1.5wins+0.01per pick47cpaid-10.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x2a69…d2f7backed No42c26,737$11,231 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11,230.953,99224.9%994 W · 2,998 L-47.0wins-0.01per pick26cpaid-19.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6219…aa6fbacked Yes58c26,126$15,041 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$11,085.0710057%57 W · 43 L+0.4wins0.00per pick57cpaid-6.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x39d3…9ef0backed No46c25,900$11,939 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11,939.3929740.1%119 W · 178 L+1.7wins+0.01per pick39cpaid-0.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x4f29…7a7ebacked No42c25,370$10,535 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10,534.571,22443.4%531 W · 693 L-7.1wins-0.01per pick44cpaid-13.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6157…9fb4backed Yes59c25,000$14,750 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$10,25012254.1%66 W · 56 L+3.8wins+0.03per pick51cpaid+3.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xe524…d34fbacked No41c25,000$10,250 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10,249.8914553.8%78 W · 67 L+9.1wins+0.06per pick48cpaid+12%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x1bc8…2f68backed No42c24,379$10,143 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10,143.168938.2%34 W · 55 L-2.1wins-0.02per pick41cpaid-8.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xe3cb…ac21backed Yes50c24,017$12,016 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$12,001.7913151.1%67 W · 64 L+5.0wins+0.04per pick47cpaid+13.6%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xecfe…8abfbacked Yes60c22,000$13,200 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8,799.991060%6 W · 4 L-0.9wins-0.09per pick69cpaid-8.3%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xe872…819abacked Yes59c20,058$11,834 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8,223.638952.8%47 W · 42 L+3.1wins+0.03per pick49cpaid+9.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x67ac…edf1backed No44c20,023$8,810 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$8,809.9917642%74 W · 102 L-1.6wins-0.01per pick43cpaid-9.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x69d5…7767backed No48c18,450$8,846 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$8,846.025244.2%23 W · 29 L-2.1wins-0.04per pick48cpaid-7.1%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xb113…8bc6backed No42c18,364$7,647 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$7,646.731851.9%165 W · 153 L+16.3wins+0.05per pick47cpaid+9.6%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xa3c5…6930backed No41c17,100$7,011 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$7,010.866053.3%32 W · 28 L+3.8wins+0.06per pick47cpaid+26.8%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x5c3a…020bbacked Yes59c17,096$10,087 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7,009.4121343.2%92 W · 121 L+3.9wins+0.02per pick41cpaid+4.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x1b47…d814backed No40c16,964$6,794 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6,794.4556541.1%232 W · 333 L-9.4wins-0.02per pick43cpaid-11.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xae95…7adabacked Yes59c16,780$9,900 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6,879.882070%14 W · 6 L+2.0wins+0.10per pick60cpaid+34.6%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xc291…5d74backed No43c16,752$7,218 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$7,218.424,45737.2%1,657 W · 2,800 L+31.0wins+0.01per pick36cpaid-8.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xdd5e…9040backed Yes57c15,488$8,828 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6,659.842,17138.2%829 W · 1,342 L-36.7wins-0.02per pick40cpaid-4.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x79ae…9a4abacked No40c15,000$6,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6,0007545.3%34 W · 41 L+2.0wins+0.03per pick43cpaid+0.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xdd88…dadbbacked Yes60c14,019$8,411 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5,607.623942.3%101 W · 138 L-4.6wins-0.02per pick44cpaid-3.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x09dd…7e13backed Yes54c13,528$7,262 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6,266.0337944.1%167 W · 212 L+0.7wins0.00per pick44cpaid-12.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x65b5…aa71backed No44c13,009$5,724 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5,724.1440655.7%226 W · 180 L+17.8wins+0.04per pick51cpaid+9.4%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x29cc…3c29backed No48c12,714$6,089 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6,089.348139.5%32 W · 49 L-3.2wins-0.04per pick43cpaid+3.5%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xf68a…5b1bbacked No41c12,500$5,125 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5,124.8974447.8%356 W · 388 L+11.3wins+0.02per pick46cpaid+1.2%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xadfa…324ebacked No41c12,000$4,920 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,919.9329646.3%137 W · 159 L-6.5wins-0.02per pick48cpaid-4.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xf387…61c0backed Yes43c11,628$5,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6,627.7234964.5%225 W · 124 L+73.5wins+0.21per pick43cpaid+123.1%equal weight72+0.20 edge/pick
0x076d…8d4cbacked No42c11,479$4,834 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,833.882,27139.5%896 W · 1,375 L+10.1wins0.00per pick39cpaid+1.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7349…cc3abacked Yes59c11,063$6,509 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,553.5120646.1%95 W · 111 L+12.9wins+0.06per pick40cpaid+1.3%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0xe221…06f6backed Yes59c10,983$6,480 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,502.998246.3%38 W · 44 L+3.2wins+0.04per pick42cpaid+2%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xe987…f0e1backed No40c10,000$4,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,00038026.6%101 W · 279 L-10.0wins-0.03per pick29cpaid-21.6%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xdc40…89cfbacked No40c10,000$4,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,999.9812536.8%46 W · 79 L-0.8wins-0.01per pick37cpaid-12%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x96ca…5a71backed Yes59c9,967$5,881 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,086.5514351.7%74 W · 69 L+3.4wins+0.02per pick49cpaid-5.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x2005…75eabacked No43c9,497$4,077 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,077.153,69636.9%1,364 W · 2,332 L-44.0wins-0.01per pick38cpaid-23.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xc974…b33bbacked No45c8,719$3,902 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,902.1321333.3%71 W · 142 L-6.2wins-0.03per pick36cpaid-12.4%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x7595…50ffbacked Yes59c8,500$5,015 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,4854339.5%17 W · 26 L-2.2wins-0.05per pick45cpaid-26.6%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xa697…59d5backed No42c8,466$3,531 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,530.72,80555.1%1,546 W · 1,259 L+70.4wins+0.03per pick53cpaid+4.1%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x54d2…de22backed No40c8,309$3,305 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,304.861233.3%4 W · 8 L-0.5wins-0.04per pick38cpaid-6.4%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x4408…1b6abacked Yes49c7,615$3,731 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,883.657642.1%32 W · 44 L+1.2wins+0.02per pick41cpaid-2.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x0d2d…7ff5backed Yes54c7,322$3,925 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,397.142,30737.6%867 W · 1,440 L-16.7wins-0.01per pick38cpaid-27.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x56ac…d77ebacked No41c7,221$2,961 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,960.6170244.6%313 W · 389 L+13.8wins+0.02per pick43cpaid+10.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x8725…eb10backed No40c7,099$2,842 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,841.6443145.2%195 W · 236 L+6.8wins+0.02per pick44cpaid+1.1%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x89cd…4d7dbacked Yes58c7,000$4,060 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,939.9530214.6%44 W · 258 L-1.8wins-0.01per pick15cpaid-16.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xc128…2217backed Yes58c6,897$4,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,896.5525228.2%71 W · 181 L+2.1wins+0.01per pick27cpaid-22.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xe72b…b0a0backed No41c6,800$2,822 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,821.9822139.8%88 W · 133 L-8.7wins-0.04per pick44cpaid-12.9%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xf7c4…affabacked Yes59c6,780$4,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,779.662263.6%14 W · 8 L+2.5wins+0.12per pick52cpaid+19.6%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x72b8…9915backed Yes59c6,780$4,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,779.66119.1%1 W · 10 L-1.6wins-0.14per pick24cpaid-84.6%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x1171…98dcbacked No41c6,639$2,737 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,736.67143.7%31 W · 40 L-1.7wins-0.02per pick46cpaid-5.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x325f…4511backed No45c6,545$2,941 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,940.81,62732.1%523 W · 1,104 L+4.0wins0.00per pick32cpaid-19.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0cbb…f8a3backed Yes52c6,375$3,300 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,0759349.5%46 W · 47 L+8.5wins+0.09per pick40cpaid+16.9%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0xb10d…4ba0backed No41c6,150$2,521 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,521.445740.4%23 W · 34 L-1.7wins-0.03per pick43cpaid-6.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xaf4d…77c6backed Yes58c6,011$3,487 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,524.727647.4%36 W · 40 L+13.4wins+0.18per pick30cpaid+80.2%equal weight65+0.13 edge/pick
0x1fac…1feebacked Yes60c5,763$3,458 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,305.167347.9%35 W · 38 L-2.8wins-0.04per pick52cpaid-18.5%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x1cd2…7f85backed No55c5,636$3,100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,1003154.8%17 W · 14 L+1.1wins+0.04per pick51cpaid+14.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xf072…467abacked Yes56c5,324$3,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,324.249446.8%44 W · 50 L+5.2wins+0.06per pick41cpaid-2.4%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xf7f0…912cbacked No41c5,120$2,120 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,119.651,87348.4%906 W · 967 L+14.4wins+0.01per pick48cpaid-0.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x158d…9c64backed Yes59c5,085$3,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,084.7513454.5%73 W · 61 L+6.4wins+0.05per pick50cpaid+7.4%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x4c25…c3bebacked No43c5,000$2,150 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,149.9970648.2%340 W · 366 L+0.8wins0.00per pick48cpaid-3.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc922…2618backed No41c5,000$2,050 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,049.9729250.7%148 W · 144 L+2.8wins+0.01per pick50cpaid-0.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xe301…8654backed No52c4,984$2,568 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,567.8744130.8%136 W · 305 L-11.6wins-0.03per pick33cpaid-29.2%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xf4ec…c574backed Yes56c4,956$2,800 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,156.148639.5%34 W · 52 L-5.0wins-0.06per pick45cpaid-13.6%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xbcd2…43f3backed Yes56c4,688$2,625 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,062.52951.7%15 W · 14 L+0.5wins+0.02per pick50cpaid+3.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x8bcf…c767backed No42c4,680$1,966 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,965.7811552.2%60 W · 55 L+5.0wins+0.04per pick48cpaid+7.5%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x7940…47e7backed No41c4,165$1,721 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,720.669947.5%47 W · 52 L+1.6wins+0.02per pick46cpaid+5.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xc9db…6789backed Yes43c4,140$1,781 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,358.8227255.9%152 W · 120 L+36.1wins+0.13per pick43cpaid+49.8%equal weight63+0.12 edge/pick
0xdb83…1e50backed No43c4,087$1,754 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,753.742,81944.5%1,255 W · 1,564 L-36.2wins-0.01per pick46cpaid-9.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xec59…bb35backed Yes56c4,000$2,225 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,774.9643248.4%209 W · 223 L-3.9wins-0.01per pick49cpaid-0.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x863a…e495backed No41c3,549$1,455 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,455.063231.3%10 W · 22 L-4.7wins-0.15per pick46cpaid-35.4%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0x0b57…5d9abacked Yes57c3,509$2,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,508.778156.8%46 W · 35 L+2.9wins+0.04per pick53cpaid-3.7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xaebf…e1cabacked Yes57c3,500$2,005 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,49517544%77 W · 98 L+9.8wins+0.06per pick38cpaid+8.2%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x86e9…4cdfbacked Yes59c3,390$2,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,389.8336247.2%171 W · 191 L+6.3wins+0.02per pick45cpaid-0.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x15fb…252dbacked Yes49c3,200$1,568 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,631.981838.9%7 W · 11 L-1.6wins-0.09per pick48cpaid-27.5%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x929c…fe32backed No24c3,111$735 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$73529018.6%54 W · 236 L-2.1wins-0.01per pick19cpaid-13.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x418d…88a3backed Yes60c3,000$1,800 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,2004940.8%20 W · 29 L+0.8wins+0.02per pick39cpaid-13.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x5811…0976backed No42c3,000$1,270 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,270.2797742%410 W · 567 L-6.5wins-0.01per pick43cpaid-7.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa981…ab19backed No11c2,850$301 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$301.55217.3%9 W · 43 L+4.9wins+0.09per pick8cpaid+525.1%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xa095…6040backed No10c2,800$294 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$294263.8%1 W · 25 L-2.7wins-0.10per pick14cpaid-76%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x4edd…ddf1backed Yes65c2,771$1,794 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$976.3127034.4%93 W · 177 L+14.4wins+0.05per pick29cpaid-3.4%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xf531…121cbacked Yes59c2,712$1,600 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,111.8617944.1%79 W · 100 L-5.7wins-0.03per pick47cpaid-9.2%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xb6d0…9b55backed Yes59c2,593$1,530 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,063.075952.5%31 W · 28 L-1.7wins-0.03per pick55cpaid-0.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xfd19…3fb8backed No4c2,557$113 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$112.716910.1%7 W · 62 L+1.7wins+0.03per pick8cpaid+20.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xdd8e…f023backed Yes59c2,542$1,500 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,042.3714246.5%66 W · 76 L-7.1wins-0.05per pick51cpaid-14.8%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x01ee…6ab0backed Yes59c2,542$1,500 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,042.3712763.8%81 W · 46 L+6.8wins+0.05per pick58cpaid+11.5%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x0e58…5749backed Yes59c2,542$1,500 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,042.374261.9%26 W · 16 L+2.6wins+0.06per pick56cpaid+6.2%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xc0df…5974backed Yes59c2,542$1,500 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,042.3721442.5%91 W · 123 L-3.1wins-0.01per pick44cpaid-6.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6cfe…c83cbacked Yes52c2,510$1,301 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,209.136234%123 W · 239 L+6.9wins+0.02per pick32cpaid-10.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xf0c0…5837backed Yes59c2,502$1,476 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,025.697167.6%48 W · 23 L+4.7wins+0.07per pick61cpaid+3.3%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Fifa International and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 40 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.