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Fifa International · resolved market

Spread: Norway (-1.5)

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Côte d'Ivoireof Norway, Côte d'Ivoire
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Fifa Internationalevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$1,164,586
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$1,162,722

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $1,164,586 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a prediction-market account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 626 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Fifa International is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Fifa International
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x204f…5e14backed Côte d'Ivoire77c301,103$233,016 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$68,086.474,59540.3%1,850 W · 2,745 L-91.3wins-0.02per pick42cpaid-23.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xf031…c80cbacked Norway23c134,640$30,328 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30,328.3533538.2%128 W · 207 L+9.7wins+0.03per pick35cpaid+14.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x0346…52a5backed Norway22c90,589$20,118 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20,117.62,40737.7%908 W · 1,499 L-48.7wins-0.02per pick40cpaid-25.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x55f5…e2a0backed Côte d'Ivoire77c85,714$66,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$19,714.294870.8%34 W · 14 L+1.2wins+0.02per pick68cpaid+4.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xa8e0…ad50backed Côte d'Ivoire78c81,614$63,439 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$18,174.997949.4%39 W · 40 L-2.7wins-0.03per pick53cpaid-8.8%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x84cf…2f63backed Norway24c64,342$15,396 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15,396.282,43929%707 W · 1,732 L-65.3wins-0.03per pick32cpaid-21%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x2c33…0563backed Côte d'Ivoire76c62,295$47,344 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$14,950.774752.2%390 W · 357 L+2.4wins0.00per pick52cpaid-1.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe907…cff6backed Norway22c57,180$12,537 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12,537.088,61429.2%2,518 W · 6,096 L-166.6wins-0.02per pick31cpaid-32.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xf4e1…34a5backed Norway24c51,403$12,320 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12,3206633.3%22 W · 44 L+2.3wins+0.03per pick30cpaid-1.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x27f7…44b0backed Côte d'Ivoire77c40,531$31,209 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$9,322.1328162.6%176 W · 105 L+5.1wins+0.02per pick61cpaid+6.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x224a…a3d5backed Côte d'Ivoire76c31,160$23,691 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7,469.8377152.8%407 W · 364 L+17.7wins+0.02per pick50cpaid+1.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xa701…47cdbacked Côte d'Ivoire77c25,000$19,250 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5,7501936.8%7 W · 12 L-1.8wins-0.09per pick46cpaid-41.4%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xfe78…0319backed Norway28c20,612$5,708 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5,707.781,14439.2%448 W · 696 L-8.4wins-0.01per pick40cpaid-14.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x70ef…e6ddbacked Norway23c19,999$4,600 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,599.8710840.7%44 W · 64 L+5.0wins+0.05per pick36cpaid+5.2%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x67ac…edf1backed Norway11c19,364$2,166 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,166.3117642%74 W · 102 L-1.6wins-0.01per pick43cpaid-9.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5c3a…020bbacked Norway24c18,813$4,515 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,515.2221343.2%92 W · 121 L+3.9wins+0.02per pick41cpaid+4.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x86e9…4cdfbacked Norway24c18,667$4,480 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,48036247.2%171 W · 191 L+6.3wins+0.02per pick45cpaid-0.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x160b…4296backed Norway23c14,423$3,317 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,317.181,04443.7%456 W · 588 L+20.7wins+0.02per pick42cpaid+14.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x9b89…4244backed Norway24c14,153$3,335 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,335.1917550.3%88 W · 87 L+4.5wins+0.03per pick48cpaid+4.4%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x8325…19ccbacked Côte d'Ivoire71c13,898$9,818 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,080.6866846.7%312 W · 356 L+45.9wins+0.07per pick40cpaid-7.3%equal weight57+0.07 edge/pick
0x076d…8d4cbacked Norway23c13,543$3,090 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,089.612,27139.5%896 W · 1,375 L+10.1wins0.00per pick39cpaid+1.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf070…ac55backed Norway24c13,315$3,196 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,195.614045.7%64 W · 76 L+0.6wins0.00per pick45cpaid-3.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xdb15…8393backed Norway24c10,417$2,500 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,50014829.7%44 W · 104 L-3.1wins-0.02per pick32cpaid-19.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x4810…289abacked Côte d'Ivoire78c10,214$7,954 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,259.944151.2%21 W · 20 L-1.6wins-0.04per pick55cpaid-7.6%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xadfa…324ebacked Norway23c10,000$2,300 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,30029646.3%137 W · 159 L-6.5wins-0.02per pick48cpaid-4.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xa974…ef79backed Norway24c10,000$2,400 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,40022229.7%66 W · 156 L+3.9wins+0.02per pick28cpaid+8.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xf742…e039backed Norway25c10,000$2,500 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,499.9926447.7%126 W · 138 L+9.8wins+0.04per pick44cpaid+4.1%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xb272…5030backed Norway23c10,000$2,300 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,299.9821937%81 W · 138 L+5.7wins+0.03per pick34cpaid+3.9%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xe987…f0e1backed Norway23c10,000$2,300 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,299.9838026.6%101 W · 279 L-10.0wins-0.03per pick29cpaid-21.6%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xdb85…152fbacked Côte d'Ivoire70c9,587$6,711 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,876.0718740.6%76 W · 111 L+3.2wins+0.02per pick39cpaid-10.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x8f76…aea6backed Norway24c8,592$2,053 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,053.3814946.3%69 W · 80 L+3.3wins+0.02per pick44cpaid+1.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xf7f0…912cbacked Côte d'Ivoire76c8,372$6,394 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,978.621,87348.4%906 W · 967 L+14.4wins+0.01per pick48cpaid-0.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x59f4…c1f1backed Norway24c8,333$2,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,0008135.8%29 W · 52 L+4.9wins+0.06per pick30cpaid+33.6%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xbb99…7364backed Côte d'Ivoire76c6,574$4,996 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,577.782748.1%13 W · 14 L+0.3wins+0.01per pick47cpaid-4.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xbc65…96c8backed Norway24c6,458$1,550 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,5505127.5%14 W · 37 L-0.5wins-0.01per pick29cpaid-14.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf1ef…8cd6backed Côte d'Ivoire76c6,000$4,560 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,44016258.6%95 W · 67 L+9.5wins+0.06per pick53cpaid+14.1%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x20e5…118dbacked Côte d'Ivoire76c6,000$4,560 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,44033549%164 W · 171 L-5.1wins-0.02per pick50cpaid-7.4%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x0e60…3badbacked Norway24c5,648$1,356 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,355.68627.9%24 W · 62 L+1.2wins+0.01per pick27cpaid+8.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x8a26…937ebacked Norway27c5,569$1,500 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,50016957.4%97 W · 72 L+6.0wins+0.04per pick54cpaid+4.2%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x0cc0…5765backed Norway31c5,000$1,550 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,5506152.5%32 W · 29 L-0.6wins-0.01per pick53cpaid-7.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xc82f…66a7backed Côte d'Ivoire76c5,000$3,800 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,20033235.5%118 W · 214 L+4.1wins+0.01per pick34cpaid+3.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x032e…2a9ebacked Norway22c4,682$1,035 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,035.092,60337.8%984 W · 1,619 L-40.7wins-0.02per pick39cpaid-9.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x4bfc…f71dbacked Norway34c4,131$1,400 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,40016827.4%46 W · 122 L-7.4wins-0.04per pick32cpaid-14.6%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xc922…2618backed Norway23c4,000$920 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$92029250.7%148 W · 144 L+2.8wins+0.01per pick50cpaid-0.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x5652…00c9backed Côte d'Ivoire76c4,000$3,040 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$959.9911755.6%65 W · 52 L+4.8wins+0.04per pick51cpaid+3.4%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x7516…8bebbacked Côte d'Ivoire76c4,000$3,040 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$959.9811657.8%67 W · 49 L+6.1wins+0.05per pick52cpaid+10.9%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x2005…75eabacked Côte d'Ivoire76c3,993$3,034 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$959.063,69636.9%1,364 W · 2,332 L-44.0wins-0.01per pick38cpaid-23.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x7ea5…de7bbacked Côte d'Ivoire76c3,919$2,977 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$942.591,56043.8%684 W · 876 L-4.4wins0.00per pick44cpaid-3.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xae76…2763backed Norway22c3,653$807 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$80718626.3%49 W · 137 L+3.6wins+0.02per pick24cpaid+9.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x0353…c2ffbacked Côte d'Ivoire78c3,590$2,782 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$807.147163.4%45 W · 26 L+0.1wins0.00per pick63cpaid+0.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa697…59d5backed Norway23c3,586$830 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$830.142,80555.1%1,546 W · 1,259 L+70.4wins+0.03per pick53cpaid+4.1%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x0484…e0eebacked Norway22c3,533$769 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$768.839324.7%23 W · 70 L+3.2wins+0.03per pick21cpaid+0.6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x779a…b689backed Côte d'Ivoire77c3,519$2,709 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$809.335080%40 W · 10 L+5.8wins+0.12per pick68cpaid+12.1%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0xec59…bb35backed Côte d'Ivoire77c3,500$2,695 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$80543248.4%209 W · 223 L-3.9wins-0.01per pick49cpaid-0.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6a32…0086backed Côte d'Ivoire76c3,500$2,660 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$84086452.7%455 W · 409 L+26.7wins+0.03per pick50cpaid+8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xb7a7…d3abbacked Norway14c3,452$483 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$483.3128526.3%75 W · 210 L-8.7wins-0.03per pick29cpaid-5.1%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xcc6b…8115backed Norway24c3,238$777 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$77722914%32 W · 197 L+1.9wins+0.01per pick13cpaid-4.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x9267…0f9abacked Côte d'Ivoire69c3,000$2,070 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$930785.7%6 W · 1 L+2.2wins+0.31per pick54cpaid+63.8%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0xeca2…44fcbacked Norway17c2,640$450 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4502416.7%4 W · 20 L-0.3wins-0.01per pick18cpaid-38%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x0d2d…7ff5backed Norway21c2,614$537 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$537.482,30737.6%867 W · 1,440 L-16.7wins-0.01per pick38cpaid-27.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe7ae…a0cbbacked Côte d'Ivoire77c2,597$2,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$597.42065%13 W · 7 L+1.0wins+0.05per pick60cpaid+2.8%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x06a9…1a49backed Norway23c2,554$600 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$60036349.3%179 W · 184 L+15.4wins+0.04per pick45cpaid+6.5%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x3bff…5c18backed Norway23c2,500$575 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$57521429.4%63 W · 151 L-1.3wins-0.01per pick30cpaid-8.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xdb83…1e50backed Côte d'Ivoire75c2,362$1,772 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$589.882,81944.5%1,255 W · 1,564 L-36.2wins-0.01per pick46cpaid-9.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xb70d…5925backed Côte d'Ivoire75c2,132$1,599 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$532.8911952.9%63 W · 56 L-1.1wins-0.01per pick54cpaid-4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x71da…bc9ebacked Norway28c2,125$598 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$598.118742.8%80 W · 107 L+1.8wins+0.01per pick42cpaid-2.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xd218…b5c9backed Norway15c2,085$309 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3094,02738.9%1,568 W · 2,459 L-26.6wins-0.01per pick40cpaid-23.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x11fd…a851backed Norway24c2,083$500 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5003810.5%4 W · 34 L-3.1wins-0.08per pick19cpaid-66.5%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x17bf…6731backed Norway24c2,083$500 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5008544.7%38 W · 47 L-3.7wins-0.04per pick49cpaid-7.9%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x57ef…044abacked Norway31c2,064$640 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$639.8413554.8%74 W · 61 L+9.2wins+0.07per pick48cpaid+8%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0xb8ed…3363backed Norway1c2,000$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$204422.7%10 W · 34 L-2.1wins-0.05per pick27cpaid-37.9%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x1a22…7b00backed Norway20c2,000$400 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4003467.6%23 W · 11 L+2.2wins+0.07per pick61cpaid+11.7%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xe214…c5cebacked Norway30c2,000$600 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$60022437.1%83 W · 141 L+5.5wins+0.02per pick35cpaid-1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xdee9…9bccbacked Norway23c2,000$460 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$46011538.3%44 W · 71 L+4.7wins+0.04per pick34cpaid+2.9%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x93bc…8ca3backed Côte d'Ivoire76c2,000$1,520 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$48047032.8%154 W · 316 L-0.7wins0.00per pick33cpaid-0.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0852…655cbacked Norway21c1,990$420 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$419.7653629.9%160 W · 376 L+8.5wins+0.02per pick28cpaid-6.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x7265…8712backed Norway23c1,928$443 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$443.4333548.4%162 W · 173 L+5.1wins+0.02per pick47cpaid+0.3%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x911b…344fbacked Norway24c1,902$457 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$456.5111346%52 W · 61 L+3.9wins+0.03per pick43cpaid+2%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x2a69…d2f7backed Norway30c1,855$551 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$550.633,99224.9%994 W · 2,998 L-47.0wins-0.01per pick26cpaid-19.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5a21…9318backed Norway9c1,843$173 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$173.132,63432.9%867 W · 1,767 L+43.3wins+0.02per pick31cpaid-19.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x613a…2185backed Norway21c1,728$363 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$362.8846230.1%139 W · 323 L-13.8wins-0.03per pick33cpaid-17.6%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x3b8a…76a2backed Norway23c1,670$384 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3844639.1%18 W · 28 L+0.6wins+0.01per pick38cpaid+2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x0e50…2609backed Norway25c1,667$417 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$416.6715048%72 W · 78 L-1.7wins-0.01per pick49cpaid+2.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x75a4…3d29backed Norway24c1,667$400 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4007545.3%34 W · 41 L-1.0wins-0.01per pick47cpaid-8.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xfe99…a1e1backed Norway24c1,667$400 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$40013721.9%30 W · 107 L+7.9wins+0.06per pick16cpaid+7.9%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xb57f…0c96backed Norway23c1,659$382 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$381.557153.5%38 W · 33 L+3.1wins+0.04per pick49cpaid+16.3%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x0fce…63d5backed Côte d'Ivoire77c1,632$1,250 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$381.581,31348.9%642 W · 671 L+12.3wins+0.01per pick48cpaid+3.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x83d9…10d9backed Côte d'Ivoire77c1,523$1,167 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$355.641,39046.3%644 W · 746 L+20.9wins+0.02per pick45cpaid+2.5%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xdcd5…aa9ebacked Norway23c1,500$345 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3451040%4 W · 6 L+0.2wins+0.02per pick38cpaid-16.6%equal weight510.00 edge/pick
0xc3db…0f98backed Norway17c1,471$250 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25019020.5%39 W · 151 L-0.7wins0.00per pick21cpaid-0.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2a58…b808backed Norway28c1,470$418 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$418.322835.5%81 W · 147 L+2.8wins+0.01per pick34cpaid-10.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x8a38…513abacked Norway24c1,454$349 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3492114.3%3 W · 18 L-0.9wins-0.04per pick18cpaid-50.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xaa0e…2a0ebacked Côte d'Ivoire76c1,450$1,102 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$34834247.7%163 W · 179 L-6.1wins-0.02per pick49cpaid-16.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xc291…5d74backed Côte d'Ivoire77c1,409$1,082 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$327.124,45737.2%1,657 W · 2,800 L+31.0wins+0.01per pick36cpaid-8.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x228b…af4cbacked Norway12c1,358$160 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$160.282,97328%831 W · 2,142 L-132.5wins-0.04per pick32cpaid-39%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xf763…a0aabacked Côte d'Ivoire77c1,351$1,035 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$316.518765.2%122 W · 65 L+4.3wins+0.02per pick63cpaid+6.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xd619…c461backed Norway22c1,344$300 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30015846.2%73 W · 85 L+7.1wins+0.05per pick42cpaid+19.1%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x595d…9ad0backed Norway19c1,343$256 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25614430.6%44 W · 100 L+0.8wins+0.01per pick30cpaid-6.4%equal weight510.00 edge/pick
0x8dad…f8e2backed Norway24c1,261$303 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$302.62650%3 W · 3 L+0.3wins+0.06per pick44cpaid+3.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x4ce0…a65bbacked Norway24c1,250$300 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30012448.4%60 W · 64 L-1.1wins-0.01per pick49cpaid-7.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Fifa International and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 40 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.