Token Launches · resolved market
Over $70M committed to the Ranger public sale?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x7aa8619c0030ce2baec39023fc5b450c3da375a7f3cb921c270d592a5e707b1b
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Token Launchesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $1,060,957
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $1,221,684
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $1,060,957 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 656 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Token Launches is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Token Launches | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x6452…30a1backed No | 0c | 100,278$125 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$125 | 63 | 50.8%32 W · 31 L | +12.0wins | +0.19per pick | 32cpaid | +108.3%equal weight | 65+0.14 edge/pick |
| 0x47fa…8bf8backed No | 54c | 90,417$48,536 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48,535.52 | 10 | 30%3 W · 7 L | -0.7wins | -0.07per pick | 37cpaid | -52.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x05ab…8145backed Yes | 44c | 40,738$17,913 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22,824.81 | 85 | 32.9%28 W · 57 L | +1.9wins | +0.02per pick | 31cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xeefa…c780backed No | 2c | 40,000$800 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$800 | 11 | 9.1%1 W · 10 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 10cpaid | -65.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x18ba…de51backed Yes | 24c | 34,338$8,237 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26,100.94 | 6 | 100%6 W · 0 L | +2.8wins | +0.47per pick | 53cpaid | +131.9%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x1f25…21a4backed Yes | 65c | 25,476$16,517 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8,959.62 | 15 | 40%6 W · 9 L | +0.9wins | +0.06per pick | 34cpaid | +13.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa643…d43dbacked No | 59c | 20,902$12,299 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12,299.12 | 13 | 38.5%5 W · 8 L | +0.2wins | +0.02per pick | 37cpaid | -25.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xecb1…5da3backed No | 65c | 19,148$12,522 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12,521.96 | 22 | 36.4%8 W · 14 L | +0.3wins | +0.02per pick | 35cpaid | +9.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf74b…95cbbacked No | 22c | 17,739$3,916 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,915.94 | 63 | 14.3%9 W · 54 L | +1.3wins | +0.02per pick | 12cpaid | -13.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd61b…0385backed No | 28c | 15,971$4,458 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,458.35 | 13 | 23.1%3 W · 10 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 24cpaid | -62.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdd22…9ef1backed No | 11c | 14,958$1,585 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,585.24 | 27 | 14.8%4 W · 23 L | -2.1wins | -0.08per pick | 23cpaid | -58.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x088f…c9e7backed No | 55c | 10,746$5,877 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$5,877.23 | 22 | 36.4%8 W · 14 L | -1.9wins | -0.09per pick | 45cpaid | -32.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5858…fbbfbacked Yes | 39c | 10,667$4,155 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6,511.96 | 32 | 43.8%14 W · 18 L | +1.1wins | +0.03per pick | 40cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5a40…4093backed Yes | 40c | 10,499$4,215 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6,284.52 | 54 | 53.7%29 W · 25 L | +4.8wins | +0.09per pick | 45cpaid | +4.9%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xd7ee…9597backed Yes | 38c | 10,389$3,922 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6,466.72 | 162 | 47.5%77 W · 85 L | +13.9wins | +0.09per pick | 39cpaid | +35.3%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xc6e5…0e18backed Yes | 39c | 10,159$4,000 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6,158.98 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | +0.7wins | +0.10per pick | 33cpaid | -18.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1319…d7dbbacked Yes | 63c | 9,404$5,950 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,453.5 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | +1.7wins | +0.19per pick | 37cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x828d…c9a5backed Yes | 67c | 7,575$5,066 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,508.41 | 28 | 42.9%12 W · 16 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 41cpaid | +33.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3939…e549backed No | 23c | 7,450$1,734 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,734.24 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -1.1wins | -0.27per pick | 27cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x62c2…c7aebacked Yes | 16c | 7,385$1,217 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6,167.82 | 21 | 33.3%7 W · 14 L | -1.1wins | -0.05per pick | 39cpaid | -23.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1bc3…8548backed Yes | 14c | 7,309$1,000 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6,309.49 | 33 | 30.3%10 W · 23 L | +1.2wins | +0.04per pick | 27cpaid | -19.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd7b0…bd69backed No | 77c | 6,644$5,109 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$5,109.34 | 27 | 40.7%11 W · 16 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -22.1%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc934…99e7backed Yes | 13c | 6,539$850 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5,689.42 | 42 | 19%8 W · 34 L | -3.1wins | -0.07per pick | 26cpaid | -4.4%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7637…de5dbacked No | 11c | 6,500$731 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$731 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | -0.3wins | -0.03per pick | 28cpaid | -54.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xffad…6c76backed No | 47c | 6,413$3,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,000 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -1.4wins | -0.36per pick | 36cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb3fe…4a24backed Yes | 30c | 6,000$1,800 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,200 | 125 | 28%35 W · 90 L | +7.4wins | +0.06per pick | 22cpaid | +22.9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6df5…6430backed Yes | 29c | 5,321$1,521 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,800.58 | 61 | 16.4%10 W · 51 L | +1.4wins | +0.02per pick | 14cpaid | +95.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfdf2…23e3backed Yes | 39c | 5,105$1,980 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,124.71 | 13 | 15.4%2 W · 11 L | -1.3wins | -0.10per pick | 25cpaid | -64.1%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5e93…c5c4backed Yes | 34c | 5,090$1,750 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,340.37 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | +0.8wins | +0.14per pick | 20cpaid | +115.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe270…10b5backed No | 46c | 5,035$2,315 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,315.01 | 66 | 34.8%23 W · 43 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 35cpaid | -13.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5972…cfa6backed Yes | 40c | 5,000$2,000 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,000 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +1.3wins | +0.32per pick | 18cpaid | +81%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x30c8…f51abacked Yes | 21c | 4,916$1,032 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,883.76 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | +0.9wins | +0.11per pick | 52cpaid | +29.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x869c…2483backed No | 38c | 4,639$1,746 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,746 | 18 | 33.3%6 W · 12 L | -3.2wins | -0.18per pick | 51cpaid | -43.5%equal weight | 42-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x2d1b…f055backed No | 37c | 4,055$1,491 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,490.59 | 29 | 17.2%5 W · 24 L | -1.9wins | -0.07per pick | 24cpaid | -69.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x08a0…11f9backed Yes | 44c | 4,007$1,756 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,250.93 | 18 | 27.8%5 W · 13 L | -1.9wins | -0.10per pick | 38cpaid | -46.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5df7…c90dbacked Yes | 57c | 3,800$2,160 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,640.07 | 19 | 26.3%5 W · 14 L | -1.2wins | -0.06per pick | 33cpaid | -41.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x17ce…beecbacked No | 17c | 3,598$613 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$613.02 | 16 | 25%4 W · 12 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 24cpaid | -22.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfcc6…8283backed Yes | 44c | 3,530$1,553 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,976.71 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +0.9wins | +0.15per pick | 35cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc7eb…28a9backed Yes | 15c | 3,500$527 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,973 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | +1.1wins | +0.12per pick | 22cpaid | +28.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0398…33a0backed No | 14c | 3,494$500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$499.68 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.12per pick | 12cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0694…4a4ebacked Yes | 66c | 3,392$2,242 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,149.74 | 40 | 50%20 W · 20 L | +2.3wins | +0.06per pick | 44cpaid | +11%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x011b…e44dbacked No | 52c | 3,333$1,733 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,733.16 | 97 | 47.4%46 W · 51 L | +4.1wins | +0.04per pick | 43cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x78a8…9850backed Yes | 33c | 3,051$1,010 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,040.92 | 45 | 35.6%16 W · 29 L | +0.6wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | -26.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb266…ccbdbacked No | 78c | 3,000$2,340 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,340 | 7 | 0%0 W · 7 L | -1.9wins | -0.27per pick | 27cpaid | -100%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x4f5c…bb60backed Yes | 34c | 3,000$1,020 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,980 | 22 | 50%11 W · 11 L | +3.7wins | +0.17per pick | 33cpaid | +148.2%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x425e…b2fabacked Yes | 50c | 3,000$1,500 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,500 | 9 | 22.2%2 W · 7 L | -0.2wins | -0.03per pick | 25cpaid | -52.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7758…7125backed No | 7c | 3,000$225 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$225 | 15 | 26.7%4 W · 11 L | +1.0wins | +0.07per pick | 20cpaid | -23.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdb63…a71dbacked Yes | 61c | 2,990$1,837 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,152.49 | 16 | 43.8%7 W · 9 L | -0.4wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x60d1…0c8fbacked No | 44c | 2,900$1,279 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,279 | 155 | 39.4%61 W · 94 L | +6.0wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | +7.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa77f…e578backed No | 56c | 2,878$1,612 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,611.94 | 31 | 29%9 W · 22 L | -2.0wins | -0.07per pick | 36cpaid | -46.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9dfe…b3ddbacked No | 55c | 2,738$1,496 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,496.03 | 104 | 62.5%65 W · 39 L | +13.4wins | +0.13per pick | 50cpaid | +22.1%equal weight | 62+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xad23…47c4backed No | 50c | 2,696$1,359 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,358.5 | 107 | 63.6%68 W · 39 L | +11.1wins | +0.10per pick | 53cpaid | +11.8%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xc441…fe4dbacked No | 39c | 2,678$1,036 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,035.53 | 13 | 46.2%6 W · 7 L | -0.4wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -16.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf91b…7f5fbacked Yes | 58c | 2,666$1,544 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,121.51 | 22 | 27.3%6 W · 16 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 27cpaid | -39.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xae0f…f647backed Yes | 39c | 2,600$1,013 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,587 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +1.1wins | +0.28per pick | 47cpaid | +36.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2917…be8fbacked No | 50c | 2,520$1,250 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,250 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | -1.1wins | -0.16per pick | 59cpaid | -36.1%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4cc2…9271backed No | 31c | 2,405$750 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$750 | 47 | 31.9%15 W · 32 L | -5.0wins | -0.11per pick | 43cpaid | -42.8%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x7f50…63bebacked Yes | 40c | 2,396$957 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,439.22 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +0.4wins | +0.07per pick | 43cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc694…1171backed Yes | 15c | 2,385$353 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,032.3 | 71 | 23.9%17 W · 54 L | +2.5wins | +0.04per pick | 20cpaid | +17.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd886…1746backed Yes | 60c | 2,271$1,362 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$909.05 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +1.1wins | +0.23per pick | 57cpaid | +32.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6ad4…3d8cbacked Yes | 16c | 2,216$358 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,857.63 | 147 | 32%47 W · 100 L | +12.7wins | +0.09per pick | 23cpaid | +44%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xd8af…04e7backed Yes | 49c | 2,213$1,089 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,123.79 | 13 | 76.9%10 W · 3 L | +2.1wins | +0.16per pick | 61cpaid | +17.8%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc775…6b22backed No | 11c | 2,180$240 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$239.8 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.3wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd444…67d6backed Yes | 48c | 2,100$1,008 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,092 | 9 | 11.1%1 W · 8 L | -0.3wins | -0.03per pick | 14cpaid | -76.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0048…ab1cbacked Yes | 66c | 2,092$1,385 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$706.6 | 27 | 37%10 W · 17 L | -2.3wins | -0.08per pick | 45cpaid | -33.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xaff9…22a3backed Yes | 49c | 2,058$1,000 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,058.41 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +0.9wins | +0.16per pick | 34cpaid | +12.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x741b…d021backed Yes | 66c | 2,035$1,343 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$691.4 | 37 | 35.1%13 W · 24 L | +2.0wins | +0.05per pick | 30cpaid | -16.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa43f…fc07backed No | 5c | 2,000$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 57 | 12.3%7 W · 50 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 12cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3cd3…da1ebacked Yes | 45c | 2,000$895 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,105 | 22 | 31.8%7 W · 15 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 31cpaid | -12%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe675…e967backed No | 1c | 2,000$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.16per pick | 50cpaid | -57.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x335d…8f03backed No | 66c | 2,000$1,315 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,315.28 | 18 | 61.1%11 W · 7 L | +1.8wins | +0.10per pick | 51cpaid | +83.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0a7a…df1bbacked No | 1c | 2,000$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 46 | 2.2%1 W · 45 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -80.2%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x44a6…d1bbbacked No | 59c | 1,990$1,166 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,166.46 | 17 | 35.3%6 W · 11 L | -1.2wins | -0.07per pick | 42cpaid | -42.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe058…d73ebacked No | 69c | 1,916$1,321 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,320.92 | 25 | 48%12 W · 13 L | -0.5wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -16.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2fa9…d134backed No | 72c | 1,900$1,367 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,367 | 25 | 28%7 W · 18 L | -5.2wins | -0.21per pick | 49cpaid | -44.2%equal weight | 38-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xf1dd…4ff7backed No | 34c | 1,844$635 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$635.12 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 43cpaid | -23.3%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3252…81cfbacked Yes | 53c | 1,800$946 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$853.99 | 37 | 32.4%12 W · 25 L | -1.8wins | -0.05per pick | 37cpaid | -30.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3078…0389backed No | 14c | 1,795$245 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$244.85 | 357 | 12.9%46 W · 311 L | -29.9wins | -0.08per pick | 21cpaid | -55.3%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x8d32…563abacked No | 34c | 1,750$600 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$600 | 35 | 40%14 W · 21 L | +0.9wins | +0.03per pick | 37cpaid | -23%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa4e2…b8f5backed No | 43c | 1,687$731 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$730.73 | 29 | 20.7%6 W · 23 L | -0.9wins | -0.03per pick | 24cpaid | -64.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x05d6…29f7backed Yes | 30c | 1,625$493 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,132.66 | 10 | 60%6 W · 4 L | +1.5wins | +0.15per pick | 45cpaid | +24.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xcae3…288bbacked No | 19c | 1,579$300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$300 | 13 | 38.5%5 W · 8 L | +1.0wins | +0.08per pick | 30cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfd42…8895backed No | 19c | 1,578$300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$299.82 | 13 | 23.1%3 W · 10 L | +1.1wins | +0.09per pick | 14cpaid | +54.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdb1c…5793backed Yes | 79c | 1,565$1,233 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$331.25 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -36.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd1e0…604bbacked No | 55c | 1,549$846 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$845.96 | 15 | 20%3 W · 12 L | -2.8wins | -0.19per pick | 39cpaid | -71.5%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xd33c…702cbacked No | 74c | 1,531$1,133 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,133.31 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +125.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0e0e…ce41backed No | 67c | 1,529$1,021 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,021.14 | 14 | 35.7%5 W · 9 L | -1.0wins | -0.07per pick | 43cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb16c…f93dbacked No | 78c | 1,522$1,189 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,188.76 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -1.3wins | -0.33per pick | 58cpaid | -67.1%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0ea5…3fdabacked Yes | 78c | 1,512$1,174 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$338.17 | 29 | 44.8%13 W · 16 L | +4.6wins | +0.16per pick | 29cpaid | +61.7%equal weight | 59+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xa3c2…a3d6backed No | 59c | 1,501$883 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$883.39 | 42 | 57.1%24 W · 18 L | +1.9wins | +0.04per pick | 53cpaid | +19.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbbe6…9b73backed No | 64c | 1,500$953 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$953.12 | 27 | 40.7%11 W · 16 L | -0.6wins | -0.02per pick | 43cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc456…8996backed No | 54c | 1,488$802 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$802.48 | 195 | 43.1%84 W · 111 L | +2.8wins | +0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -17.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbd45…3dd4backed No | 35c | 1,480$525 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$525.2 | 36 | 30.6%11 W · 25 L | +0.9wins | +0.02per pick | 28cpaid | +83.2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd76f…0767backed No | 35c | 1,439$500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$500 | 17 | 35.3%6 W · 11 L | -2.2wins | -0.13per pick | 48cpaid | -47.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe211…30b4backed No | 63c | 1,429$900 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$900 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | -0.5wins | -0.06per pick | 50cpaid | -22.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x739c…e7abbacked No | 40c | 1,428$571 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$571.13 | 16 | 37.5%6 W · 10 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 37cpaid | -21.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4014…a2edbacked No | 73c | 1,369$1,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,000 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -2.1wins | -0.53per pick | 53cpaid | -100%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xefe8…fe1abacked Yes | 38c | 1,353$509 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$844.14 | 8 | 75%6 W · 2 L | +2.4wins | +0.31per pick | 44cpaid | +89.7%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xbce4…60e7backed No | 79c | 1,351$1,070 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,070 | 8 | 0%0 W · 8 L | -2.2wins | -0.27per pick | 27cpaid | -100%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x9dc5…5a8dbacked No | 37c | 1,351$500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$500 | 11 | 27.3%3 W · 8 L | -1.0wins | -0.09per pick | 36cpaid | -49.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Token Launches and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 15 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Over $70M committed to the Ranger public sale?this page
- Over $100M committed to the Ranger public sale?No won
- Over $120M committed to the Ranger public sale?No won
- Over $140M committed to the Ranger public sale?No won
- Over $15M committed to the Ranger public sale?Yes won
- Over $160M committed to the Ranger public sale?No won
- Over $180M committed to the Ranger public sale?No won
- Over $200M committed to the Ranger public sale?No won
- Over $20M committed to the Ranger public sale?Yes won
- Over $30M committed to the Ranger public sale?Yes won
- Over $40M committed to the Ranger public sale?Yes won
- Over $50M committed to the Ranger public sale?Yes won
- Over $60M committed to the Ranger public sale?Yes won
- Over $80M committed to the Ranger public sale?Yes won
- Over $90M committed to the Ranger public sale?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.