Token Launches · resolved market
Over $160M committed to the Ranger public sale?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xbdef4855799998673d5ddc9c7da5c9d4700f9bad29ef5baaa90f1636694cd0bc
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Token Launchesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $269,757
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $251,828
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $269,757 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 104 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Token Launches is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Token Launches | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x05ab…8145backed Yes | 4c | 21,875$819 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$819.3 | 85 | 32.9%28 W · 57 L | +1.9wins | +0.02per pick | 31cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd61b…0385backed Yes | 9c | 13,328$1,166 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,165.75 | 13 | 23.1%3 W · 10 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 24cpaid | -62.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7054…82b8backed Yes | 11c | 9,979$1,131 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,131 | 13 | 15.4%2 W · 11 L | -1.0wins | -0.07per pick | 23cpaid | -66.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfdf2…23e3backed Yes | 11c | 7,623$850 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$850 | 13 | 15.4%2 W · 11 L | -1.3wins | -0.10per pick | 25cpaid | -64.1%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3252…81cfbacked Yes | 5c | 7,500$400 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$400.3 | 37 | 32.4%12 W · 25 L | -1.8wins | -0.05per pick | 37cpaid | -30.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc7eb…28a9backed Yes | 10c | 7,500$724 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$723.87 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | +1.1wins | +0.12per pick | 22cpaid | +28.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2f4a…7c9fbacked Yes | 12c | 6,937$808 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$808.15 | 23 | 39.1%9 W · 14 L | +1.2wins | +0.05per pick | 34cpaid | -29%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1f25…21a4backed Yes | 7c | 6,886$500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$500.01 | 15 | 40%6 W · 9 L | +0.9wins | +0.06per pick | 34cpaid | +13.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0b48…9e7abacked Yes | 7c | 6,693$472 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$472.29 | 28 | 35.7%10 W · 18 L | +3.0wins | +0.11per pick | 25cpaid | +83.2%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 2c | 5,714$129 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$128.59 | 766 | 3.3%25 W · 741 L | -23.5wins | -0.03per pick | 6cpaid | -75.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbbec…dcbdbacked Yes | 7c | 3,516$231 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$230.51 | 24 | 16.7%4 W · 20 L | -2.5wins | -0.10per pick | 27cpaid | -69.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x741b…d021backed Yes | 8c | 3,400$273 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$272.7 | 37 | 35.1%13 W · 24 L | +2.0wins | +0.05per pick | 30cpaid | -16.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xaaf7…2e27backed Yes | 1c | 3,288$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.35 | 166 | 2.4%4 W · 162 L | +1.1wins | +0.01per pick | 2cpaid | -14.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd035…f165backed Yes | 7c | 3,041$204 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$203.68 | 51 | 9.8%5 W · 46 L | -4.7wins | -0.09per pick | 19cpaid | -78.3%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x1d0d…9b6ebacked Yes | 5c | 2,720$128 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$128.14 | 237 | 7.2%17 W · 220 L | -4.2wins | -0.02per pick | 9cpaid | -38.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x899c…18d7backed Yes | 8c | 2,388$189 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$189.43 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xca8f…d963backed Yes | 6c | 2,109$123 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$123.45 | 328 | 3%10 W · 318 L | -3.0wins | -0.01per pick | 4cpaid | -45.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc4c8…8618backed Yes | 10c | 2,108$207 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$207.05 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -0.7wins | -0.12per pick | 12cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5d59…bdf3backed Yes | 8c | 1,935$155 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$155.5 | 87 | 39.1%34 W · 53 L | +3.5wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | +20.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0995…620dbacked Yes | 15c | 1,903$285 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$285.13 | 21 | 19%4 W · 17 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 19cpaid | -57.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4d8f…6a69backed Yes | 5c | 1,765$85 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$84.93 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | +2.1wins | +0.21per pick | 19cpaid | +59.8%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa43f…fc07backed Yes | 9c | 1,758$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150 | 57 | 12.3%7 W · 50 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 12cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6c67…21eebacked Yes | 12c | 1,729$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 34 | 11.8%4 W · 30 L | -3.7wins | -0.11per pick | 23cpaid | -45.2%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x945a…a48cbacked Yes | 6c | 1,451$93 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$92.69 | 209 | 4.3%9 W · 200 L | -7.3wins | -0.04per pick | 8cpaid | -73.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4e93…6a20backed Yes | 11c | 1,300$148 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$147.87 | 11 | 54.5%6 W · 5 L | +1.5wins | +0.14per pick | 41cpaid | +13.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3057…7a96backed Yes | 6c | 1,222$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$74.54 | 59 | 37.3%22 W · 37 L | -3.9wins | -0.07per pick | 44cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc934…99e7backed Yes | 8c | 1,166$95 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$94.93 | 42 | 19%8 W · 34 L | -3.1wins | -0.07per pick | 26cpaid | -4.4%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3bcf…dc5cbacked Yes | 7c | 1,100$76 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$76.43 | 68 | 36.8%25 W · 43 L | +4.6wins | +0.07per pick | 30cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0e66…c5a2backed Yes | 9c | 1,082$101 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100.97 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -0.6wins | -0.12per pick | 12cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd493…7f04backed Yes | 5c | 1,079$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.25 | 119 | 0.8%1 W · 118 L | -4.7wins | -0.04per pick | 5cpaid | -85.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x43d9…36eebacked Yes | 17c | 1,039$172 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$171.87 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -1.1wins | -0.27per pick | 27cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xff44…9e86backed Yes | 10c | 1,021$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 12 | 33.3%4 W · 8 L | -2.8wins | -0.24per pick | 57cpaid | -41.2%equal weight | 42-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x8203…0187backed Yes | 5c | 1,000$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45 | 16 | 12.5%2 W · 14 L | -4.8wins | -0.30per pick | 42cpaid | -84%equal weight | 37-0.12 edge/pick |
| 0x6c9f…b1e2backed Yes | 1c | 1,000$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 11 | 0%0 W · 11 L | -1.0wins | -0.09per pick | 9cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x149f…7ab5backed Yes | 7c | 1,000$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$69.99 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -0.7wins | -0.12per pick | 29cpaid | -76.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3d28…9b1cbacked Yes | 4c | 1,000$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 32 | 28.1%9 W · 23 L | +1.2wins | +0.04per pick | 24cpaid | +11.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4ca9…c3f5backed Yes | 12c | 1,000$117 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$117 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.8wins | -0.19per pick | 19cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc29a…1d16backed Yes | 12c | 999.99$120 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$120 | 8 | 0%0 W · 8 L | -1.4wins | -0.17per pick | 17cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9dc2…0727backed Yes | 6c | 900$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.5 | 112 | 2.7%3 W · 109 L | -2.5wins | -0.02per pick | 5cpaid | -65.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3078…0389backed Yes | 9c | 876.48$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80.08 | 357 | 12.9%46 W · 311 L | -29.9wins | -0.08per pick | 21cpaid | -55.3%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x6814…4d2dbacked Yes | 6c | 873.43$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.73 | 75 | 4%3 W · 72 L | -1.2wins | -0.02per pick | 6cpaid | -52.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xafa6…0846backed Yes | 12c | 854.98$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -0.8wins | -0.16per pick | 16cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x672f…f1eabacked Yes | 12c | 854.7$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.17per pick | 17cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1b03…26bfbacked Yes | 16c | 850.72$136 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$136.42 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.16per pick | 16cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3013…e5b2backed Yes | 2c | 823.09$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 11 | 27.3%3 W · 8 L | +1.7wins | +0.16per pick | 12cpaid | +54.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1e98…6345backed Yes | 6c | 813.17$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.82 | 254 | 1.6%4 W · 250 L | -7.7wins | -0.03per pick | 5cpaid | -71.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7402…6a0cbacked Yes | 6c | 800$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48 | 74 | 39.2%29 W · 45 L | +1.9wins | +0.03per pick | 37cpaid | +10.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9fe5…a206backed Yes | 3c | 795$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 43 | 27.9%12 W · 31 L | +3.6wins | +0.08per pick | 20cpaid | +30.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd7b0…bd69backed Yes | 6c | 770.6$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.95 | 27 | 40.7%11 W · 16 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -22.1%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9474…5091backed Yes | 9c | 758.02$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$69.57 | 349 | 5.7%20 W · 329 L | -25.3wins | -0.07per pick | 13cpaid | -66.5%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xe061…93f9backed Yes | 7c | 745.23$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.19 | 134 | 3.7%5 W · 129 L | -1.7wins | -0.01per pick | 5cpaid | -52.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x74f1…a655backed Yes | 6c | 714.78$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43 | 7 | 0%0 W · 7 L | -1.2wins | -0.18per pick | 18cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1319…d7dbbacked Yes | 3c | 712.49$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.22 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | +1.7wins | +0.19per pick | 37cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x46b0…efa6backed Yes | 15c | 700$104 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$104.3 | 10 | 0%0 W · 10 L | -1.6wins | -0.16per pick | 16cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7dd2…33b8backed Yes | 11c | 646.25$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70 | 24 | 33.3%8 W · 16 L | +0.8wins | +0.03per pick | 30cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf0e2…ebc6backed Yes | 7c | 630$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.9 | 30 | 26.7%8 W · 22 L | -2.6wins | -0.09per pick | 35cpaid | -51.2%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf91b…7f5fbacked Yes | 8c | 625$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 22 | 27.3%6 W · 16 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 27cpaid | -39.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7577…a332backed Yes | 16c | 617.45$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.16per pick | 16cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x80e4…dc76backed Yes | 8c | 580.38$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.45 | 41 | 46.3%19 W · 22 L | +1.7wins | +0.04per pick | 42cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5e6e…6246backed Yes | 9c | 559.35$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 13 | 38.5%5 W · 8 L | -0.4wins | -0.03per pick | 41cpaid | -33.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb929…16aabacked Yes | 7c | 531.34$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | +0.5wins | +0.05per pick | 28cpaid | -14.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbefa…300dbacked Yes | 9c | 509.99$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.37 | 171 | 2.9%5 W · 166 L | -0.9wins | -0.01per pick | 3cpaid | -37.7%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6181…ad60backed Yes | 10c | 500.94$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.07 | 12 | 58.3%7 W · 5 L | +1.7wins | +0.14per pick | 44cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7ac7…e0efbacked Yes | 8c | 500$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.49 | 13 | 38.5%5 W · 8 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | +17.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5155…197dbacked Yes | 6c | 500$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.46 | 12 | 33.3%4 W · 8 L | +1.6wins | +0.13per pick | 20cpaid | -15.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5fe7…44a2backed Yes | 7c | 495.78$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35 | 35 | 34.3%12 W · 23 L | +0.9wins | +0.02per pick | 32cpaid | -27.9%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcbbe…c192backed Yes | 9c | 450$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.55 | 36 | 13.9%5 W · 31 L | -2.4wins | -0.07per pick | 21cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2724…604abacked Yes | 10c | 436.02$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.06 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.8wins | -0.27per pick | 27cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa1d1…3a7abacked Yes | 12c | 427.82$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 16 | 25%4 W · 12 L | -3.0wins | -0.19per pick | 44cpaid | -62%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x65b2…caa8backed Yes | 12c | 405.19$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.6wins | +0.14per pick | 36cpaid | -2.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x89ce…2fb4backed Yes | 5c | 380$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.52 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -0.9wins | -0.15per pick | 15cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x52b3…3a58backed Yes | 5c | 374.16$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.03 | 27 | 25.9%7 W · 20 L | +1.0wins | +0.04per pick | 22cpaid | -35.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x99bc…4f35backed Yes | 5c | 347.96$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.06 | 254 | 22%56 W · 198 L | -9.0wins | -0.04per pick | 26cpaid | -34.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0fa6…3b1dbacked Yes | 6c | 343.84$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -0.3wins | -0.05per pick | 22cpaid | -56.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6ffd…a637backed Yes | 4c | 330$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.46 | 73 | 34.2%25 W · 48 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 34cpaid | -19.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4512…c4a9backed Yes | 7c | 320.24$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.87 | 21 | 28.6%6 W · 15 L | -1.3wins | -0.06per pick | 35cpaid | -42.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcd96…cbdcbacked Yes | 7c | 315$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.57 | 111 | 24.3%27 W · 84 L | +1.0wins | +0.01per pick | 23cpaid | +153.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3dd9…11afbacked Yes | 16c | 312.78$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | +0.4wins | +0.04per pick | 36cpaid | -25.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdc75…e4bcbacked Yes | 8c | 312.5$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 24 | 50%12 W · 12 L | +3.9wins | +0.16per pick | 34cpaid | +17.7%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xafed…482abacked Yes | 5c | 300$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.3 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | +0.8wins | +0.11per pick | 32cpaid | -17.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1a16…ed99backed Yes | 5c | 300$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +2.5wins | +0.41per pick | 26cpaid | +584.2%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xd8ef…0656backed Yes | 13c | 300$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.8 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | +1.2wins | +0.12per pick | 28cpaid | -15.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe90f…0088backed Yes | 7c | 300$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.3 | 19 | 42.1%8 W · 11 L | +4.1wins | +0.22per pick | 20cpaid | +204.3%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xd160…0af6backed Yes | 5c | 299.99$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.9 | 49 | 24.5%12 W · 37 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 25cpaid | -11.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9015…2ed7backed Yes | 7c | 291.16$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.81 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | +1.0wins | +0.10per pick | 30cpaid | -23.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7495…26b5backed Yes | 6c | 255.22$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 26 | 34.6%9 W · 17 L | -0.8wins | -0.03per pick | 38cpaid | -17.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x40a0…802dbacked Yes | 10c | 252.76$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 10 | 0%0 W · 10 L | -1.8wins | -0.18per pick | 18cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x08aa…774ebacked Yes | 8c | 250.09$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.6wins | -0.20per pick | 20cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xce92…18e7backed Yes | 10c | 243.89$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 10 | 10%1 W · 9 L | -0.6wins | -0.06per pick | 16cpaid | -37%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xadfe…8aaebacked Yes | 12c | 243.69$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 7 | 0%0 W · 7 L | -2.0wins | -0.28per pick | 28cpaid | -100%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2ab3…07bcbacked Yes | 8c | 238.68$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 55 | 3.6%2 W · 53 L | -7.0wins | -0.13per pick | 16cpaid | -83.9%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x3531…4fb3backed Yes | 5c | 223$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.04 | 41 | 29.3%12 W · 29 L | -1.0wins | -0.02per pick | 32cpaid | -13.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd195…0ab2backed Yes | 10c | 203.23$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.7wins | -0.22per pick | 22cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa1ec…d65bbacked Yes | 8c | 200$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.8 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -1.2wins | -0.19per pick | 36cpaid | -78.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xcf4f…6ea8backed Yes | 17c | 188.52$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -0.2wins | -0.04per pick | 20cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xad53…ef24backed Yes | 7c | 184$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.99 | 463 | 20.5%95 W · 368 L | -68.1wins | -0.15per pick | 35cpaid | -59.8%equal weight | 34-0.14 edge/pick |
| 0x45f4…631dbacked Yes | 9c | 176.3$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.69 | 38 | 23.7%9 W · 29 L | -0.6wins | -0.02per pick | 25cpaid | -23.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3c8e…73a6backed Yes | 10c | 153.33$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.9wins | -0.21per pick | 21cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2340…5365backed Yes | 15c | 126.4$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.89 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.6wins | -0.15per pick | 15cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd588…cec0backed Yes | 8c | 125$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 85 | 21.2%18 W · 67 L | -3.7wins | -0.04per pick | 26cpaid | -57.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Token Launches and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 15 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Over $160M committed to the Ranger public sale?this page
- Over $100M committed to the Ranger public sale?No won
- Over $120M committed to the Ranger public sale?No won
- Over $140M committed to the Ranger public sale?No won
- Over $15M committed to the Ranger public sale?Yes won
- Over $180M committed to the Ranger public sale?No won
- Over $200M committed to the Ranger public sale?No won
- Over $20M committed to the Ranger public sale?Yes won
- Over $30M committed to the Ranger public sale?Yes won
- Over $40M committed to the Ranger public sale?Yes won
- Over $50M committed to the Ranger public sale?Yes won
- Over $60M committed to the Ranger public sale?Yes won
- Over $70M committed to the Ranger public sale?Yes won
- Over $80M committed to the Ranger public sale?Yes won
- Over $90M committed to the Ranger public sale?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.