Token Launches · resolved market
Over $180M committed to the Ranger public sale?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x413f82af84be8d38de21723b28965cec9e4d48c8c31b8c069056789279a2c9c8
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Token Launchesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $197,897
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $180,361
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $197,897 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 75 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Token Launches is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Token Launches | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x1d0d…9b6ebacked Yes | 3c | 8,737$297 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$296.56 | 237 | 7.2%17 W · 220 L | -4.2wins | -0.02per pick | 9cpaid | -38.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x05ab…8145backed Yes | 4c | 8,705$341 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$340.52 | 85 | 32.9%28 W · 57 L | +1.9wins | +0.02per pick | 31cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7054…82b8backed Yes | 6c | 6,305$400 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$400 | 13 | 15.4%2 W · 11 L | -1.0wins | -0.07per pick | 23cpaid | -66.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1f25…21a4backed Yes | 6c | 5,568$333 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$333 | 15 | 40%6 W · 9 L | +0.9wins | +0.06per pick | 34cpaid | +13.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd7b0…bd69backed Yes | 5c | 4,371$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 27 | 40.7%11 W · 16 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -22.1%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3013…e5b2backed Yes | 3c | 4,288$129 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$128.75 | 11 | 27.3%3 W · 8 L | +1.7wins | +0.16per pick | 12cpaid | +54.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xaaf7…2e27backed Yes | 0c | 4,218$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.75 | 166 | 2.4%4 W · 162 L | +1.1wins | +0.01per pick | 2cpaid | -14.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x741b…d021backed Yes | 6c | 4,000$228 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$228 | 37 | 35.1%13 W · 24 L | +2.0wins | +0.05per pick | 30cpaid | -16.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfdf2…23e3backed Yes | 4c | 3,865$161 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$161 | 13 | 15.4%2 W · 11 L | -1.3wins | -0.10per pick | 25cpaid | -64.1%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa672…f083backed Yes | 10c | 3,623$362 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$362.26 | 18 | 33.3%6 W · 12 L | -1.1wins | -0.06per pick | 39cpaid | -45.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc934…99e7backed Yes | 3c | 3,222$81 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80.6 | 42 | 19%8 W · 34 L | -3.1wins | -0.07per pick | 26cpaid | -4.4%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3252…81cfbacked Yes | 4c | 2,900$102 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$101.5 | 37 | 32.4%12 W · 25 L | -1.8wins | -0.05per pick | 37cpaid | -30.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x425e…b2fabacked Yes | 6c | 2,800$157 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$156.8 | 9 | 22.2%2 W · 7 L | -0.2wins | -0.03per pick | 25cpaid | -52.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5d59…bdf3backed Yes | 6c | 2,706$149 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$149 | 87 | 39.1%34 W · 53 L | +3.5wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | +20.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6c9f…b1e2backed Yes | 5c | 2,668$140 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$140 | 11 | 0%0 W · 11 L | -1.0wins | -0.09per pick | 9cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8074…5c76backed Yes | 6c | 2,494$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | +0.2wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -16.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3b3c…c600backed Yes | 2c | 2,400$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.4 | 71 | 32.4%23 W · 48 L | +1.6wins | +0.02per pick | 30cpaid | -21.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0b48…9e7abacked Yes | 5c | 2,296$107 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$107.09 | 28 | 35.7%10 W · 18 L | +3.0wins | +0.11per pick | 25cpaid | +83.2%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x3057…7a96backed Yes | 5c | 2,197$107 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$107.09 | 59 | 37.3%22 W · 37 L | -3.9wins | -0.07per pick | 44cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd035…f165backed Yes | 3c | 2,184$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$69.88 | 51 | 9.8%5 W · 46 L | -4.7wins | -0.09per pick | 19cpaid | -78.3%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xbbec…dcbdbacked Yes | 5c | 2,136$112 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$111.88 | 24 | 16.7%4 W · 20 L | -2.5wins | -0.10per pick | 27cpaid | -69.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc4c8…8618backed Yes | 8c | 2,088$158 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$158.36 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -0.7wins | -0.12per pick | 12cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x04f1…b550backed Yes | 0c | 2,070$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 11 | 27.3%3 W · 8 L | +0.7wins | +0.06per pick | 21cpaid | -10.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3cd3…da1ebacked Yes | 5c | 2,000$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 22 | 31.8%7 W · 15 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 31cpaid | -12%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 5c | 1,990$102 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$101.95 | 766 | 3.3%25 W · 741 L | -23.5wins | -0.03per pick | 6cpaid | -75.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x945a…a48cbacked Yes | 6c | 1,922$112 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$111.96 | 209 | 4.3%9 W · 200 L | -7.3wins | -0.04per pick | 8cpaid | -73.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xca8f…d963backed Yes | 4c | 1,906$79 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$79.25 | 328 | 3%10 W · 318 L | -3.0wins | -0.01per pick | 4cpaid | -45.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3d28…9b1cbacked Yes | 4c | 1,700$71 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70.5 | 32 | 28.1%9 W · 23 L | +1.2wins | +0.04per pick | 24cpaid | +11.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xafa6…0846backed Yes | 6c | 1,678$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -0.8wins | -0.16per pick | 16cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6814…4d2dbacked Yes | 5c | 1,643$76 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$76.41 | 75 | 4%3 W · 72 L | -1.2wins | -0.02per pick | 6cpaid | -52.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0e66…c5a2backed Yes | 7c | 1,518$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100.2 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -0.6wins | -0.12per pick | 12cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3bcf…dc5cbacked Yes | 3c | 1,500$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 68 | 36.8%25 W · 43 L | +4.6wins | +0.07per pick | 30cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4d8f…6a69backed Yes | 3c | 1,434$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.9 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | +2.1wins | +0.21per pick | 19cpaid | +59.8%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x9dc2…0727backed Yes | 5c | 1,336$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63.19 | 112 | 2.7%3 W · 109 L | -2.5wins | -0.02per pick | 5cpaid | -65.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdc7b…e990backed Yes | 3c | 1,100$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.6 | 10 | 20%2 W · 8 L | -0.9wins | -0.09per pick | 29cpaid | -23.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc7eb…28a9backed Yes | 4c | 1,100$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.45 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | +1.1wins | +0.12per pick | 22cpaid | +28.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1e98…6345backed Yes | 5c | 1,069$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.07 | 254 | 1.6%4 W · 250 L | -7.7wins | -0.03per pick | 5cpaid | -71.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc29a…1d16backed Yes | 10c | 1,000$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 8 | 0%0 W · 8 L | -1.4wins | -0.17per pick | 17cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5155…197dbacked Yes | 5c | 1,000$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.9 | 12 | 33.3%4 W · 8 L | +1.6wins | +0.13per pick | 20cpaid | -15.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd493…7f04backed Yes | 5c | 900$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.9 | 119 | 0.8%1 W · 118 L | -4.7wins | -0.04per pick | 5cpaid | -85.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc9da…81d7backed Yes | 6c | 862.07$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.13per pick | 37cpaid | -27.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe061…93f9backed Yes | 6c | 816.57$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.12 | 134 | 3.7%5 W · 129 L | -1.7wins | -0.01per pick | 5cpaid | -52.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x46b0…efa6backed Yes | 13c | 800$104 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$104 | 10 | 0%0 W · 10 L | -1.6wins | -0.16per pick | 16cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7dd2…33b8backed Yes | 7c | 696.66$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 24 | 33.3%8 W · 16 L | +0.8wins | +0.03per pick | 30cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9474…5091backed Yes | 7c | 692.18$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.62 | 349 | 5.7%20 W · 329 L | -25.3wins | -0.07per pick | 13cpaid | -66.5%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x5592…fdc4backed Yes | 8c | 600.83$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.14 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.3wins | +0.10per pick | 23cpaid | -20.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5e6e…6246backed Yes | 7c | 592.22$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 13 | 38.5%5 W · 8 L | -0.4wins | -0.03per pick | 41cpaid | -33.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbefa…300dbacked Yes | 5c | 510$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.54 | 171 | 2.9%5 W · 166 L | -0.9wins | -0.01per pick | 3cpaid | -37.7%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x80e4…dc76backed Yes | 6c | 504.61$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.74 | 41 | 46.3%19 W · 22 L | +1.7wins | +0.04per pick | 42cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1b4b…b93cbacked Yes | 8c | 500$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 54 | 16.7%9 W · 45 L | -3.6wins | -0.07per pick | 23cpaid | -51.2%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd160…0af6backed Yes | 4c | 499.99$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.8 | 49 | 24.5%12 W · 37 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 25cpaid | -11.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x89ce…2fb4backed Yes | 3c | 449.99$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.29 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -0.9wins | -0.15per pick | 15cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4512…c4a9backed Yes | 4c | 449.68$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.34 | 21 | 28.6%6 W · 15 L | -1.3wins | -0.06per pick | 35cpaid | -42.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcd6e…21e4backed Yes | 5c | 449.2$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.46 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.6wins | +0.28per pick | 22cpaid | +28.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x52b3…3a58backed Yes | 4c | 439.82$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.78 | 27 | 25.9%7 W · 20 L | +1.0wins | +0.04per pick | 22cpaid | -35.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3dd9…11afbacked Yes | 11c | 439.33$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | +0.4wins | +0.04per pick | 36cpaid | -25.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbe29…b07ebacked Yes | 7c | 419.43$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.38 | 28 | 14.3%4 W · 24 L | -1.4wins | -0.05per pick | 19cpaid | -22.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc5cf…ede7backed Yes | 3c | 409.18$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 12 | 16.7%2 W · 10 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 16cpaid | -25%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdc75…e4bcbacked Yes | 7c | 400.39$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28 | 24 | 50%12 W · 12 L | +3.9wins | +0.16per pick | 34cpaid | +17.7%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x02ba…b928backed Yes | 5c | 400$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.2 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -1.1wins | -0.18per pick | 34cpaid | -75.1%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xadfe…8aaebacked Yes | 8c | 392.64$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 7 | 0%0 W · 7 L | -2.0wins | -0.28per pick | 28cpaid | -100%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xcd96…cbdcbacked Yes | 5c | 336.72$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.56 | 111 | 24.3%27 W · 84 L | +1.0wins | +0.01per pick | 23cpaid | +153.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcf4f…6ea8backed Yes | 8c | 322.07$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -0.2wins | -0.04per pick | 20cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8c45…4503backed Yes | 6c | 307.69$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.98 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | +0.1wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | -31.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf2f3…e016backed Yes | 6c | 300$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.8 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.07per pick | 43cpaid | -37.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x45f4…631dbacked Yes | 6c | 300$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.5 | 38 | 23.7%9 W · 29 L | -0.6wins | -0.02per pick | 25cpaid | -23.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xce92…18e7backed Yes | 8c | 243.75$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.76 | 10 | 10%1 W · 9 L | -0.6wins | -0.06per pick | 16cpaid | -37%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xecd7…30c5backed Yes | 9c | 236$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | -0.3wins | -0.04per pick | 18cpaid | -76.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x08a0…11f9backed Yes | 9c | 230.83$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 18 | 27.8%5 W · 13 L | -1.9wins | -0.10per pick | 38cpaid | -46.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2f4c…06dabacked Yes | 12c | 227.22$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.72 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.09per pick | 59cpaid | -31.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4d30…790dbacked Yes | 11c | 225.12$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.98 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.24per pick | 24cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x44ff…997fbacked Yes | 5c | 200$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 35 | 28.6%10 W · 25 L | +1.3wins | +0.04per pick | 25cpaid | +14.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd588…cec0backed Yes | 6c | 164.84$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 85 | 21.2%18 W · 67 L | -3.7wins | -0.04per pick | 26cpaid | -57.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb3f1…9e5cbacked Yes | 13c | 116.27$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 15 | 26.7%4 W · 11 L | -2.5wins | -0.16per pick | 43cpaid | -59.2%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xb6c3…cf5cbacked Yes | 10c | 100$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 38 | 31.6%12 W · 26 L | +1.7wins | +0.04per pick | 27cpaid | -38.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Token Launches and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 15 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Over $180M committed to the Ranger public sale?this page
- Over $100M committed to the Ranger public sale?No won
- Over $120M committed to the Ranger public sale?No won
- Over $140M committed to the Ranger public sale?No won
- Over $15M committed to the Ranger public sale?Yes won
- Over $160M committed to the Ranger public sale?No won
- Over $200M committed to the Ranger public sale?No won
- Over $20M committed to the Ranger public sale?Yes won
- Over $30M committed to the Ranger public sale?Yes won
- Over $40M committed to the Ranger public sale?Yes won
- Over $50M committed to the Ranger public sale?Yes won
- Over $60M committed to the Ranger public sale?Yes won
- Over $70M committed to the Ranger public sale?Yes won
- Over $80M committed to the Ranger public sale?Yes won
- Over $90M committed to the Ranger public sale?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.