TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Token Launches · resolved market

Over $90M committed to the Ranger public sale?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Noof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Token Launchesevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$828,372
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$783,560

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $828,372 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 518 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Token Launches is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Token Launches
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x0ad7…0971backed Yes0c72,925$199 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$199.32190%0 W · 19 L-0.2wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x43f1…c334backed Yes1c57,831$329 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$328.6580%4 W · 1 L+1.5wins+0.29per pick51cpaid+34.5%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x05ab…8145backed Yes27c41,899$11,376 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11,375.98532.9%28 W · 57 L+1.9wins+0.02per pick31cpaid-11.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x396f…7f78backed Yes0c30,141$53 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$52.692623.1%6 W · 20 L-0.6wins-0.02per pick26cpaid-58.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa643…d43dbacked Yes14c17,000$2,420 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,4201338.5%5 W · 8 L+0.2wins+0.02per pick37cpaid-25.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xa43f…fc07backed Yes1c12,524$86 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$86.235712.3%7 W · 50 L+0.3wins+0.01per pick12cpaid-6.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7758…7125backed Yes1c12,321$129 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$129.011526.7%4 W · 11 L+1.0wins+0.07per pick20cpaid-23.5%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x3c8a…80e6backed No56c11,483$6,374 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5,108.72152.4%11 W · 10 L+1.2wins+0.06per pick46cpaid+13.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x34ab…840ebacked Yes41c11,453$4,667 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,666.722475%18 W · 6 L+7.3wins+0.31per pick44cpaid+82.1%equal weight67+0.15 edge/pick
0xf164…97d4backed Yes1c10,372$110 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$110425%1 W · 3 L+0.4wins+0.10per pick15cpaid+94.5%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x3ac8…a414backed Yes0c10,000$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20911.1%1 W · 8 L-0.8wins-0.09per pick20cpaid-80.5%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x5972…cfa6backed Yes5c10,000$500 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$500450%2 W · 2 L+1.3wins+0.32per pick18cpaid+81%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xa2e4…bf9dbacked Yes15c10,000$1,500 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,499.99933.3%3 W · 6 L+0.3wins+0.03per pick30cpaid-2.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x1bc3…8548backed Yes5c9,122$500 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5003330.3%10 W · 23 L+1.2wins+0.04per pick27cpaid-19.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x5f45…a77abacked No44c9,000$3,980 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5,019.994847.9%23 W · 25 L-0.6wins-0.01per pick49cpaid-4.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x828d…c9a5backed Yes38c9,000$3,400 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,399.992842.9%12 W · 16 L+0.4wins+0.01per pick41cpaid+33.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xbbec…dcbdbacked Yes18c8,432$1,490 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,4902416.7%4 W · 20 L-2.5wins-0.10per pick27cpaid-69.4%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x78a8…9850backed Yes14c7,604$1,099 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,099.184535.6%16 W · 29 L+0.6wins+0.01per pick34cpaid-26.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x543b…4bb0backed Yes16c6,319$1,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,0001428.6%4 W · 10 L+1.4wins+0.10per pick19cpaid-5%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x8c35…370abacked Yes27c5,989$1,613 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,612.561723.5%4 W · 13 L-3.0wins-0.18per pick41cpaid-42.4%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0xe78f…727dbacked Yes35c4,789$1,676 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,676.31560%3 W · 2 L+0.3wins+0.07per pick53cpaid-5.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x0b48…9e7abacked Yes6c4,500$278 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2782835.7%10 W · 18 L+3.0wins+0.11per pick25cpaid+83.2%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0xd189…b261backed Yes37c4,322$1,606 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,606.2333.3%1 W · 2 L0.0wins0.00per pick33cpaid-40.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xdd22…9ef1backed Yes6c4,153$234 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$233.92714.8%4 W · 23 L-2.1wins-0.08per pick23cpaid-58.9%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x1f25…21a4backed Yes48c4,151$2,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,0001540%6 W · 9 L+0.9wins+0.06per pick34cpaid+13.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x9eac…7cdcbacked No64c4,068$2,608 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,459.241241.7%5 W · 7 L0.0wins0.00per pick42cpaid-19.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4ed3…aa68backed Yes2c3,850$90 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$89.991612.5%2 W · 14 L-2.0wins-0.13per pick25cpaid-81.4%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xa3c2…a3d6backed No56c3,809$2,127 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,681.674257.1%24 W · 18 L+1.9wins+0.04per pick53cpaid+19.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x76bd…f258backed Yes46c3,553$1,622 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,621.51666.7%4 W · 2 L+0.8wins+0.14per pick53cpaid+21.2%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x3c32…15bfbacked No75c3,500$2,625 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$875333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.8wins-0.27per pick61cpaid-55.6%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x40d4…fe90backed Yes24c3,255$780 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$78020%0 W · 2 L-0.4wins-0.21per pick21cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x7ac7…e0efbacked Yes23c3,222$743 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$743.311338.5%5 W · 8 L+0.1wins0.00per pick38cpaid+17.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0694…4a4ebacked No64c3,122$1,985 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,136.734050%20 W · 20 L+2.3wins+0.06per pick44cpaid+11%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xd61b…0385backed No65c3,104$2,028 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,076.611323.1%3 W · 10 L-0.1wins-0.01per pick24cpaid-62.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc694…1171backed Yes10c3,001$297 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2977123.9%17 W · 54 L+2.5wins+0.04per pick20cpaid+17.2%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x3257…2f3bbacked Yes15c3,000$450 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$449.697545.3%34 W · 41 L-0.8wins-0.01per pick46cpaid-24.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x08a0…11f9backed Yes18c2,998$545 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$545.221827.8%5 W · 13 L-1.9wins-0.10per pick38cpaid-46.2%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x02b1…c764backed Yes16c2,970$486 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$486.411723.5%4 W · 13 L-1.7wins-0.10per pick34cpaid-57.7%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x7054…82b8backed Yes51c2,938$1,486 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,486.131315.4%2 W · 11 L-1.0wins-0.07per pick23cpaid-66.6%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x1a47…846fbacked Yes7c2,835$189 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$189.272420.8%5 W · 19 L+0.6wins+0.02per pick18cpaid-26.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xd7ee…9597backed Yes30c2,645$783 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$783.516247.5%77 W · 85 L+13.9wins+0.09per pick39cpaid+35.3%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x6f58…3ef4backed Yes4c2,633$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$100560%3 W · 2 L+0.4wins+0.09per pick51cpaid0%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x3b1a…270cbacked Yes4c2,632$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$100911.1%1 W · 8 L-0.6wins-0.07per pick18cpaid-70%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xc94b…217ebacked Yes9c2,563$232 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$232.173339.4%13 W · 20 L+1.7wins+0.05per pick34cpaid-28.9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x8c25…8d52backed Yes22c2,545$550 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5504528.9%13 W · 32 L+1.5wins+0.03per pick26cpaid-18.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xce1d…1b9bbacked No62c2,500$1,550 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$949.9910045%45 W · 55 L-2.9wins-0.03per pick48cpaid-15%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xd76f…0767backed No61c2,475$1,500 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$974.521735.3%6 W · 11 L-2.2wins-0.13per pick48cpaid-47.4%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xad23…47c4backed No60c2,453$1,483 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$970.7810763.6%68 W · 39 L+11.1wins+0.10per pick53cpaid+11.8%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0xe058…d73ebacked No64c2,438$1,560 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$877.472548%12 W · 13 L-0.5wins-0.02per pick50cpaid-16.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xc445…552cbacked Yes41c2,419$990 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$989.761275%9 W · 3 L+2.5wins+0.21per pick54cpaid+65.1%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x3078…0389backed Yes18c2,314$416 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$416.0735712.9%46 W · 311 L-29.9wins-0.08per pick21cpaid-55.3%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0xd7b0…bd69backed Yes58c2,265$1,312 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,311.712740.7%11 W · 16 L+0.2wins+0.01per pick40cpaid-22.1%equal weight510.00 edge/pick
0x7205…ffd4backed No70c2,240$1,558 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$681.67431.1%23 W · 51 L-2.0wins-0.03per pick34cpaid-21.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xec59…bb35backed No61c2,170$1,329 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$840.42425%6 W · 18 L-3.2wins-0.14per pick39cpaid-54.9%equal weight43-0.07 edge/pick
0xb7ca…bcbdbacked Yes11c2,156$234 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$234.011050%5 W · 5 L+2.0wins+0.20per pick30cpaid+41.1%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x97e5…d1f0backed Yes18c2,089$384 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$384.07475%3 W · 1 L+1.7wins+0.41per pick34cpaid+101.6%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x33ef…c498backed No78c2,044$1,602 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$442.573531.4%11 W · 24 L-4.6wins-0.13per pick44cpaid-50.5%equal weight42-0.08 edge/pick
0x3013…e5b2backed Yes14c2,000$280 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2801127.3%3 W · 8 L+1.7wins+0.16per pick12cpaid+54.4%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x4c88…9a3cbacked Yes2c1,905$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4020%0 W · 2 L-0.2wins-0.10per pick10cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xcd94…6b1ebacked Yes27c1,854$500 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$500.4340%0 W · 4 L-1.2wins-0.29per pick29cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xc2ed…ffc2backed Yes27c1,852$500 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$500728.6%2 W · 5 L-0.3wins-0.04per pick33cpaid-20.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x74c1…ab9bbacked Yes3c1,803$52 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$521330.8%4 W · 9 L-0.1wins-0.01per pick32cpaid-14.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x400b…8458backed No77c1,768$1,366 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$402728.6%2 W · 5 L-1.9wins-0.27per pick56cpaid-57.2%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0xa79d…5feebacked Yes11c1,750$201 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$201837.5%3 W · 5 L+0.5wins+0.06per pick31cpaid-36.4%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x9c58…ec18backed No42c1,744$733 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,011.64771.4%5 W · 2 L+1.5wins+0.22per pick50cpaid+20.5%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x8ebf…83cebacked No77c1,700$1,307 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$392.91127.3%3 W · 8 L-0.2wins-0.02per pick30cpaid-48.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x8624…b484backed Yes30c1,684$505 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$505.2757.1%4 W · 3 L+0.5wins+0.07per pick50cpaid+0.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x7c64…12ffbacked Yes4c1,579$60 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6090%0 W · 9 L-1.9wins-0.21per pick21cpaid-100%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0xcc29…7774backed No70c1,570$1,100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$470.171338.5%5 W · 8 L+0.1wins+0.01per pick37cpaid+14.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x3252…81cfbacked Yes34c1,460$501 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$500.83732.4%12 W · 25 L-1.8wins-0.05per pick37cpaid-30.1%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x8092…b8a2backed Yes20c1,458$291 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$290.621540%6 W · 9 L+0.5wins+0.04per pick36cpaid-21.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x317e…b4f0backed Yes18c1,414$249 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$248.6320%0 W · 2 L-0.6wins-0.29per pick29cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x945a…a48cbacked Yes6c1,391$82 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$81.542094.3%9 W · 200 L-7.3wins-0.04per pick8cpaid-73.5%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xce61…8ef6backed Yes23c1,299$300 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3003823.7%9 W · 29 L-4.5wins-0.12per pick36cpaid-38.9%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0xe6c9…975ebacked Yes25c1,297$327 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$327.36728.3%6 W · 66 L-6.4wins-0.09per pick17cpaid-69.6%equal weight43-0.07 edge/pick
0xefe8…fe1abacked Yes27c1,250$341 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$340.98875%6 W · 2 L+2.4wins+0.31per pick44cpaid+89.7%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x19ff…5f1dbacked No80c1,249$999 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$249.87475%3 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick75cpaid-2.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9a5a…779cbacked Yes29c1,227$356 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$355.831127.3%3 W · 8 L-0.9wins-0.08per pick36cpaid-45.5%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x9dd3…4191backed No61c1,207$731 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$475.377231.9%23 W · 49 L+1.1wins+0.02per pick30cpaid-17.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xd035…f165backed Yes34c1,201$407 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$407.21519.8%5 W · 46 L-4.7wins-0.09per pick19cpaid-78.3%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0xe492…fe1bbacked No51c1,200$610 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$590520%1 W · 4 L-0.6wins-0.11per pick31cpaid-60.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x5d59…bdf3backed Yes32c1,199$380 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$380.418739.1%34 W · 53 L+3.5wins+0.04per pick35cpaid+20.2%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x425e…b2fabacked Yes8c1,187$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$100922.2%2 W · 7 L-0.2wins-0.03per pick25cpaid-52.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x7c3d…5c6bbacked Yes10c1,167$115 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$115.495623.2%13 W · 43 L-0.3wins-0.01per pick24cpaid-46.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa095…66bcbacked Yes6c1,163$70 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$69.711040%4 W · 6 L+1.0wins+0.10per pick30cpaid+158.9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x1b23…0a3cbacked Yes25c1,136$284 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2841435.7%5 W · 9 L-0.3wins-0.02per pick38cpaid-18.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x3578…804fbacked No68c1,125$760 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$364.661323.1%3 W · 10 L-2.2wins-0.17per pick40cpaid-69.2%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0x8b72…6dbebacked Yes2c1,100$22 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$21.914027.5%11 W · 29 L-0.3wins-0.01per pick28cpaid-12%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0x16c3…5373backed Yes13c1,100$138 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$138.23917.9%7 W · 32 L-5.1wins-0.13per pick31cpaid-39.6%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0x8796…9937backed No55c1,091$600 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$490.911127.3%3 W · 8 L-0.4wins-0.04per pick31cpaid-57.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf869…8be1backed Yes2c1,063$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.8wins+0.26per pick40cpaid+12.7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xfdf2…23e3backed Yes48c1,033$500 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5001315.4%2 W · 11 L-1.3wins-0.10per pick25cpaid-64.1%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x6ad4…3d8cbacked Yes20c1,030$211 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$210.514732%47 W · 100 L+12.7wins+0.09per pick23cpaid+44%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0xa2ff…772cbacked Yes45c1,020$457 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$456.84030%12 W · 28 L-1.4wins-0.04per pick34cpaid-29.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xe446…dd57backed Yes17c1,006$172 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$172.26366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.6wins+0.21per pick46cpaid+11.5%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x4b14…5d9cbacked Yes1c1,000$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$103740.5%15 W · 22 L+2.4wins+0.06per pick34cpaid+4.1%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xbbe6…9b73backed Yes15c1,000$150 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1502740.7%11 W · 16 L-0.6wins-0.02per pick43cpaid+0.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x9b0b…5e43backed Yes20c1,000$200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2002832.1%9 W · 19 L+1.3wins+0.04per pick28cpaid-33.4%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x6041…20ebbacked Yes5c1,000$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$501520%3 W · 12 L-1.4wins-0.09per pick29cpaid-73.9%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x5e4c…de5bbacked Yes27c1,000$267 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$267.082828.6%8 W · 20 L-0.4wins-0.01per pick30cpaid-6.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Token Launches and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 15 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.