TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Wallet 0xe058…d73e

Rebuilt .

Summary

Qualified picks
63
Categories scored
14
Categories below 50
10

Best Category: Dota2, grading 53 out of 100 (+0.03 per pick).

Best Category Dota2 at 53 out of 100; worst Fifa International at 45.

What is a Tail Score?

A mark out of 100, per Category. 50 means no edge at all — this wallet did about what the prices it paid implied it would. Above 50 it beat those prices; below 50 it did worse than them.

The scale does not move. 100 is a wallet beating the prices it paid by 0.45 per pick and 0 is losing to them by the same, on every wallet, on every page, in every month. So a grade you screenshot today still means what it meant when you took it, and two wallets can be put side by side.

Nobody reaches either end. Across every wallet TailMyPicks has scored, the marks run from roughly 5 to 87 — which is what a fixed ruler costs, and what buys the sentence above.

It is not a win rate. A wallet can win four Picks in five and still grade below 50, if the market was already pricing those outcomes at 90c — it paid for the wins rather than finding them. The vs expected and Avg entry columns below are what separate the two.

The mark is deliberately pulled toward 50 when there is little evidence. Three lucky Picks do not produce a high grade; several hundred consistent ones do. So a modest grade on thousands of Picks means something a high grade on twelve does not.

Because it is shrunk this way, a Category grade is a conservative reading. The headline figure for a wallet is its best Category, so it always understates how badly the wallet does in its worst one — which is why the table below is per Category and not one blended number.

Record by Category

Ordered by how much this wallet actually traded in each Category, not by score — so the Categories it plays most appear first whether they went well or badly. Open any row to see the picks its numbers were computed from — all of them.

CategoryQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
Token Launches Inactivelast resolved Jun 1, 2026, EDT2548%12 W · 13 L-0.5wins-0.02per pick50cpaid-16.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
Token Launches — the 25 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Token Launches, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Over $60M committed to the Printr public sale?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)80c$288Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 1, 2026, EDT+25%+$72
MegaETH market cap (FDV) >$2B one day after launch?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)57c$342Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 1, 2026, EDT+75.4%+$258
MegaETH market cap (FDV) >$1.5B one day after launch?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)70c$695Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 1, 2026, EDT+43.9%+$305
Based FDV above $100M one day after launch?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)28c$112Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 31, 2026, EDT-100%-$112
Backpack FDV above $500M one day after launch?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)58c$481Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 24, 2026, EDT-100%-$481.4
Backpack FDV above $1B one day after launch?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)60c$2,010Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 24, 2026, EDT-100%-$2,010
Backpack FDV above $2B one day after launch?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)25c$1,543Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 24, 2026, EDT-100%-$1,543.1
Over $70M committed to the Ranger public sale?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)69c$1,321Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 10, 2026, EST-100%-$1,320.92
Over $60M committed to the Ranger public sale?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)46c$2,007Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 10, 2026, EST-100%-$2,007.49
Over $90M committed to the Ranger public sale?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)64c$1,560Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 10, 2026, EST+56.2%+$877.47
Over $120M committed to the Ranger public sale?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)74c$1,499Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 10, 2026, EST+35.6%+$534.23
Over $40M committed to the Ranger public sale?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)13c$999Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 10, 2026, EST-100%-$998.75
Lighter market cap (FDV) >$1B one day after launch?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)30c$2,138Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 2, 2026, EST-100%-$2,137.88
Will Opensea launch a token by December 31? backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)32c$169Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 1, 2026, EST-100%-$168.5
Lighter market cap (FDV) >$4B one day after launch?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)63c$3,385Won — open this pick on its own pageDec 31, 2025, EST+58.7%+$1,988.02
Lighter market cap (FDV) >$3B one day after launch?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)60c$5,623Won — open this pick on its own pageDec 31, 2025, EST+66.4%+$3,734.97
Lighter Airdrop on December 30?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)70c$2,260Won — open this pick on its own pageDec 30, 2025, EST+42.9%+$968.74
Will lighter perform an airdrop by December 31? backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)77c$8,749Won — open this pick on its own pageDec 30, 2025, EST+30.4%+$2,658.41
Lighter Airdrop on December 29?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)33c$594Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 30, 2025, EST-100%-$594
HumidiFi FDV above $100M one day after launch?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)18c$100Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 10, 2025, EST-100%-$100
Will Stable launch a token in 2025?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)12c$100Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 8, 2025, EST-100%-$100
Over $250M committed to the Monad public sale?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)57c$2,000Won — open this pick on its own pageNov 22, 2025, EST+76.5%+$1,529.9
Will Monad perform an airdrop by November 15? backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)66c$1,204Lost — open this pick on its own pageNov 16, 2025, EST-100%-$1,204.41
Will Monad perform an airdrop by October 31? backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)64c$152Won — open this pick on its own pageNov 1, 2025, EDT+56.2%+$85.54
Over $1.8B committed to the MegaETH public sale?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)24c$66Won — open this pick on its own pageOct 30, 2025, EDT+315.2%+$208.9
All 25 picks, newest first.
Fifa International Inactivelast resolved Jun 29, 2026, EDT922.2%2 W · 7 L-1.6wins-0.18per pick40cpaid-52.8%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
Fifa International — the 9 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Fifa International, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)2c$198Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 29, 2026, EDT-100%-$198
Will Japan win on 2026-06-29?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)19c$397Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 29, 2026, EDT-100%-$397.45
Will Japan win on 2026-06-25?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)53c$200Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 25, 2026, EDT-100%-$200
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)68c$495Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 21, 2026, EDT+47.1%+$232.92
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-18?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)25c$1,467Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 18, 2026, EDT-100%-$1,466.91
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)76c$201Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 17, 2026, EDT-100%-$201.4
Will Japan win on 2026-06-14?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)27c$227Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 14, 2026, EDT-100%-$226.71
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)58c$157Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 14, 2026, EDT-100%-$156.6
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)36c$187Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 12, 2026, EDT+177.8%+$332.8
All 9 picks, newest first.
AI Inactivelast resolved Jan 1, 2026, EST825%2 W · 6 L-0.8wins-0.10per pick35cpaid+17.1%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
AI — the 8 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in AI, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Elon no longer world's richest before 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)13c$170Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 1, 2026, EST+695.3%+$1,182.05
Will Microsoft be the second most valuable company on October 31?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)71c$253Won — open this pick on its own pageOct 31, 2025, EDT+41.2%+$104.34
OpenAI browser by October 31?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)50c$1,102Lost — open this pick on its own pageOct 21, 2025, EDT-100%-$1,102.45
Will Sora be the #1 Free App in the US Apple App Store on October 15?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)47c$50Lost — open this pick on its own pageOct 15, 2025, EDT-100%-$50
Will Sora by OpenAI be #1 Free App in the US Apple App Store on October 10?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)19c$100Lost — open this pick on its own pageOct 10, 2025, EDT-100%-$100
OpenAI social app in 2025?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)40c$250Lost — open this pick on its own pageSep 30, 2025, EDT-100%-$250
Will Apple's iPhone 17 Pro cost more than $1000 when it launches?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)37c$350Lost — open this pick on its own pageSep 13, 2025, EDT-100%-$350
Will Tesla launch a driverless Robotaxi service by October 31?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)0c$10Lost — open this pick on its own pageSep 10, 2025, EDT-100%-$10
All 8 picks, newest first.
Ukraine Inactivelast resolved May 9, 2026, EDT425%1 W · 3 L0.0wins+0.01per pick24cpaid+31.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
Ukraine — the 4 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Ukraine, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Middle East Inactivelast resolved Jan 1, 2026, EST30%0 W · 3 L-0.4wins-0.14per pick14cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
Middle East — the 3 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Middle East, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Dota2 Inactivelast resolved May 26, 2026, EDT2100%2 W · 0 L+0.7wins+0.36per pick64cpaid+60.9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
Dota2 — the 2 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Dota2, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Dota 2: Team Falcons vs ex-HEROIC (BO1) - BLAST Slam Group Stagebacked Team Falcons · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)54c$103Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 26, 2026, EDT+85.2%+$87.4
Dota 2: OG vs Xtreme Gaming (BO1) - BLAST Slam Group Stagebacked Xtreme Gaming · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)73c$330Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 26, 2026, EDT+36.6%+$120.5
All 2 picks, newest first.
World Politics Inactivelast resolved Jan 1, 2026, EST250%1 W · 1 L+0.5wins+0.26per pick24cpaid+61.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
World Politics — the 2 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in World Politics, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Yoon be sentenced to prison in 2025?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)17c$100Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 1, 2026, EST-100%-$100
Park Sung-jae in jail by November 15?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)31c$50Won — open this pick on its own pageNov 16, 2025, EST+222.6%+$111.29
All 2 picks, newest first.
Fed Rates Inactivelast resolved Sep 21, 2025, EDT20%0 W · 2 L-0.4wins-0.19per pick19cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
Fed Rates — the 2 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Fed Rates, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Us Politics Inactivelast resolved Feb 3, 2026, EST20%0 W · 2 L-0.9wins-0.43per pick43cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
Us Politics — the 2 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Us Politics, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
US government shutdown Saturday?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)68c$204Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 3, 2026, EST-100%-$204
Will Trump sell 1-100 Gold Cards in 2025?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)18c$100Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 1, 2026, EST-100%-$100
All 2 picks, newest first.
Weather Inactivelast resolved May 14, 2026, EDT20%0 W · 2 L-1.0wins-0.51per pick51cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
Weather — the 2 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Weather, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Lol Inactivelast resolved Nov 9, 2025, EST1100%1 W · 0 L+0.4wins+0.39per pick61cpaid+63.7%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
Lol — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Lol, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will T1 win LoL Worlds 2025?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)61c$438Won — open this pick on its own pageNov 9, 2025, EST+63.7%+$279.15
All 1 picks, newest first.
Stocks Inactivelast resolved Jun 3, 2026, EDT10%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
Stocks — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Stocks, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)2c$350Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 3, 2026, EDT-100%-$350
All 1 picks, newest first.
Boxing Inactivelast resolved Nov 16, 2024, EST10%0 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.32per pick32cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
Boxing — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Boxing, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Mike Tyson win his boxing match against Jake Paul?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)32c$1,671Lost — open this pick on its own pageNov 16, 2024, EST-100%-$1,671.25
All 1 picks, newest first.
Champions League Inactivelast resolved May 30, 2026, EDT10%0 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.39per pick39cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
Champions League — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Champions League, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-05-30?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)39c$330Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 30, 2026, EDT-100%-$330
All 1 picks, newest first.

vs expected is how many more (or fewer) Picks this wallet won than the prices it paid implied it would. It is the column that tells a real edge apart from a record bought by backing favourites. Realizable edge is what that comes to per Pick for somebody copying the wallet, after the cost of getting in behind it. Avg entry is the average price it paid, so a strong record built on heavy favourites shows as one. ROI per pick counts every Pick equally rather than by size, which is how a record earned across many Picks is told apart from one carried by a few large ones. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in — an American night game settles after midnight UTC, so any other zone would name the day after the one it was played on. Inactive means nothing has resolved in that Category recently. The score is kept and the wallet stays reachable here; it only leaves the default leaderboard.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.