Middle East · resolved market
Israel strike on Yemen by September 19?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x61a5ad390a8ee74a0946eb6edb56a4fd9a820f03efbf103a487b2e43c2c24bd2
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Middle Eastevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $101,560
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $108,339
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $101,560 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 32 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Middle East is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Middle East | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x591f…5610backed No | 0c | 16,164$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$79.9 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfc53…9754backed No | 6c | 12,694$747 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$746.81 | 70 | 25.7%18 W · 52 L | +3.1wins | +0.04per pick | 21cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xac5c…1529backed No | 2c | 4,114$99 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1555…7d82backed No | 9c | 3,758$325 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$325 | 44 | 29.5%13 W · 31 L | -2.3wins | -0.05per pick | 35cpaid | -37.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x52f5…19dabacked No | 7c | 2,996$221 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$220.8 | 122 | 45.9%56 W · 66 L | +7.6wins | +0.06per pick | 40cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xce69…3e08backed No | 9c | 2,381$220 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$220.07 | 37 | 32.4%12 W · 25 L | +0.6wins | +0.02per pick | 31cpaid | -25.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x733c…d092backed No | 1c | 2,244$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.44 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | +1.3wins | +0.18per pick | 39cpaid | +49.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0814…0a81backed No | 1c | 2,196$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.89 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | -0.7wins | -0.08per pick | 42cpaid | -50.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x495d…ef9fbacked No | 10c | 1,500$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.17per pick | 17cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3aab…9d46backed No | 14c | 1,408$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -0.5wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcd5a…f7a4backed No | 6c | 1,326$76 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$76.46 | 61 | 18%11 W · 50 L | -1.3wins | -0.02per pick | 20cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3aff…79e9backed No | 5c | 1,140$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | +0.3wins | +0.07per pick | 13cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5c69…51cabacked No | 10c | 1,118$110 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$109.7 | 135 | 18.5%25 W · 110 L | +2.3wins | +0.02per pick | 17cpaid | -16%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa0e9…c21ebacked No | 12c | 1,063$123 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$122.8 | 18 | 55.6%10 W · 8 L | +1.2wins | +0.07per pick | 49cpaid | +8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5dfb…71b7backed No | 9c | 999.89$89 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$88.99 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | +0.3wins | +0.05per pick | 15cpaid | -51.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf00a…c77cbacked No | 14c | 985.71$138 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$138 | 47 | 53.2%25 W · 22 L | +3.4wins | +0.07per pick | 46cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x61e6…94eebacked No | 5c | 905$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 25cpaid | -54%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7994…c512backed No | 4c | 845.2$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.75 | 115 | 37.4%43 W · 72 L | +5.0wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa8c9…74f1backed No | 2c | 574.21$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.97 | 94 | 14.9%14 W · 80 L | +2.7wins | +0.03per pick | 12cpaid | +86.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe058…d73ebacked No | 2c | 572.86$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.4wins | -0.14per pick | 14cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5754…e515backed No | 10c | 402$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 111 | 41.4%46 W · 65 L | +0.8wins | +0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -12%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0619…d801backed No | 11c | 370.84$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.58 | 148 | 27%40 W · 108 L | -2.8wins | -0.02per pick | 29cpaid | -34.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa4b3…87b8backed No | 6c | 260$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.6 | 165 | 37%61 W · 104 L | +11.5wins | +0.07per pick | 30cpaid | +25.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x3c00…0788backed No | 8c | 243.8$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.5 | 24 | 4.2%1 W · 23 L | -1.7wins | -0.07per pick | 11cpaid | -93.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed No | 9c | 240$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.4 | 678 | 41.6%282 W · 396 L | -20.5wins | -0.03per pick | 45cpaid | -16.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfb32…db85backed No | 12c | 230.46$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.14 | 344 | 40.4%139 W · 205 L | -4.3wins | -0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -15.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdf87…2955backed No | 14c | 214.29$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 12 | 66.7%8 W · 4 L | +1.8wins | +0.15per pick | 52cpaid | +15.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6828…1056backed No | 6c | 200$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.73 | 181 | 51.9%94 W · 87 L | +4.3wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +14.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa019…c220backed No | 9c | 200$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | +0.9wins | +0.17per pick | 23cpaid | -6.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa53b…d12cbacked No | 11c | 150$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -0.9wins | -0.15per pick | 15cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4b28…15dfbacked No | 14c | 100$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 162 | 25.9%42 W · 120 L | +3.0wins | +0.02per pick | 24cpaid | -12.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa244…8e63backed No | 14c | 100$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 115 | 31.3%36 W · 79 L | -0.8wins | -0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -18.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Middle East and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Israel strike on Yemen by September 19?this page
- Israel strike on Yemen by September 15?No won
- Israel strike on Yemen by September 30?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.