Middle East · resolved market
Israel strike on Yemen by September 15?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x21649bf76cceb886d9727add911dc88cff7553a53eb6566852d4149d3734bf9b
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Middle Eastevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $44,920
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $40,671
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $44,920 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 45 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Middle East is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Middle East | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xce69…3e08backed Yes | 14c | 3,160$454 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$453.99 | 37 | 32.4%12 W · 25 L | +0.6wins | +0.02per pick | 31cpaid | -25.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfc53…9754backed Yes | 8c | 1,767$137 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$136.75 | 70 | 25.7%18 W · 52 L | +3.1wins | +0.04per pick | 21cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x90b4…df63backed Yes | 7c | 1,700$122 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$122.1 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 21cpaid | -45.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1ce8…662ebacked Yes | 2c | 1,500$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.5 | 38 | 23.7%9 W · 29 L | -0.6wins | -0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -52.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4fad…1480backed Yes | 1c | 1,427$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.89 | 207 | 8.2%17 W · 190 L | -6.3wins | -0.03per pick | 11cpaid | -88.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd7f1…73cdbacked Yes | 7c | 1,326$91 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$90.89 | 563 | 36.6%206 W · 357 L | +44.4wins | +0.08per pick | 29cpaid | +37.7%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x49f3…76fbbacked Yes | 13c | 994.49$127 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$126.57 | 26 | 34.6%9 W · 17 L | -1.2wins | -0.05per pick | 39cpaid | -41.7%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9178…a2b2backed Yes | 15c | 899.98$135 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$135 | 208 | 23.1%48 W · 160 L | +7.3wins | +0.04per pick | 20cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 3c | 834.22$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.84 | 1,558 | 7.2%112 W · 1,446 L | -35.1wins | -0.02per pick | 9cpaid | -42.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd035…f165backed Yes | 15c | 781.55$115 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$114.64 | 54 | 14.8%8 W · 46 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 15cpaid | +29.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1cfc…2111backed Yes | 12c | 778.27$96 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$96.16 | 408 | 28.9%118 W · 290 L | -29.5wins | -0.07per pick | 36cpaid | -36%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xae1d…e333backed Yes | 18c | 647.44$118 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$118.5 | 188 | 33.5%63 W · 125 L | +4.2wins | +0.02per pick | 31cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8616…1026backed Yes | 11c | 500$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55 | 17 | 35.3%6 W · 11 L | -1.1wins | -0.07per pick | 42cpaid | -7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x37ef…a37abacked Yes | 23c | 450$102 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$102.15 | 31 | 32.3%10 W · 21 L | -1.5wins | -0.05per pick | 37cpaid | -31.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe6dc…3843backed Yes | 22c | 446.31$97 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$96.52 | 11 | 81.8%9 W · 2 L | +2.1wins | +0.19per pick | 62cpaid | +27.7%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa4b3…87b8backed Yes | 8c | 439.26$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.14 | 165 | 37%61 W · 104 L | +11.5wins | +0.07per pick | 30cpaid | +25.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xe91b…0ea2backed Yes | 14c | 432.02$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61.92 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | +1.2wins | +0.17per pick | 40cpaid | +63.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xea41…1c98backed No | 75c | 410$306 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$103.6 | 333 | 37.5%125 W · 208 L | +12.2wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe605…ac5fbacked Yes | 20c | 363.58$73 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$73 | 234 | 20.9%49 W · 185 L | -1.8wins | -0.01per pick | 22cpaid | -28.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x65bf…4b91backed Yes | 3c | 333$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.21 | 92 | 17.4%16 W · 76 L | -2.4wins | -0.03per pick | 20cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa9a1…c98abacked Yes | 16c | 313$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.54 | 125 | 24.8%31 W · 94 L | -9.5wins | -0.08per pick | 32cpaid | -47.3%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5150…ee1dbacked Yes | 18c | 273.7$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 8 | 0%0 W · 8 L | -1.2wins | -0.14per pick | 14cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed Yes | 13c | 209.62$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.56 | 678 | 41.6%282 W · 396 L | -20.5wins | -0.03per pick | 45cpaid | -16.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7994…c512backed Yes | 11c | 203.95$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.34 | 115 | 37.4%43 W · 72 L | +5.0wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x20e3…d1bdbacked Yes | 46c | 200$91 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$91 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.9wins | -0.47per pick | 47cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2843…b3d2backed Yes | 18c | 200$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35 | 289 | 43.6%126 W · 163 L | +8.9wins | +0.03per pick | 41cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2c67…8c6abacked Yes | 14c | 200$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.6wins | -0.15per pick | 40cpaid | -16.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa815…9cbebacked Yes | 18c | 199.99$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.46 | 221 | 7.2%16 W · 205 L | +2.6wins | +0.01per pick | 6cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked Yes | 16c | 186.53$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.46 | 776 | 36.9%286 W · 490 L | +6.9wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -35.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcd96…cbdcbacked Yes | 11c | 160$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.9 | 129 | 44.2%57 W · 72 L | +1.6wins | +0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -16.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa8c9…74f1backed Yes | 19c | 150$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.8 | 94 | 14.9%14 W · 80 L | +2.7wins | +0.03per pick | 12cpaid | +86.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x843b…2673backed Yes | 14c | 146.51$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 21 | 23.8%5 W · 16 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 24cpaid | -40.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x17e5…3d19backed Yes | 18c | 127.17$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.47 | 136 | 29.4%40 W · 96 L | -10.7wins | -0.08per pick | 37cpaid | -48.2%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xdfaa…79a7backed Yes | 12c | 111.09$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.13 | 317 | 19.2%61 W · 256 L | -23.1wins | -0.07per pick | 27cpaid | -41%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xeed9…7405backed Yes | 17c | 108.51$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.13 | 60 | 41.7%25 W · 35 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa591…9079backed Yes | 47c | 100$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47 | 69 | 65.2%45 W · 24 L | +7.3wins | +0.11per pick | 55cpaid | +3%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x39c1…af8ebacked Yes | 18c | 100$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.18per pick | 18cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5c29…d822backed Yes | 16c | 100$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 147 | 24.5%36 W · 111 L | -0.8wins | -0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -26.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xeafc…0d5cbacked Yes | 18c | 100$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 149 | 40.9%61 W · 88 L | +10.5wins | +0.07per pick | 34cpaid | +21.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xab5f…aab9backed Yes | 16c | 98.75$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.8 | 23 | 34.8%8 W · 15 L | -0.4wins | -0.02per pick | 37cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd9d2…a626backed Yes | 29c | 85.47$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.2wins | -0.05per pick | 25cpaid | -41.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf576…a786backed Yes | 19c | 60.64$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.26 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.19per pick | 19cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe8a6…644bbacked Yes | 25c | 50$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.5 | 194 | 28.9%56 W · 138 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -23.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes | 22c | 50$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.75 | 865 | 42.3%366 W · 499 L | -3.8wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -7.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8f50…1fb6backed No | 79c | 20$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.2 | 17 | 76.5%13 W · 4 L | +2.6wins | +0.15per pick | 61cpaid | +26.1%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Middle East and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Israel strike on Yemen by September 15?this page
- Israel strike on Yemen by September 19?Yes won
- Israel strike on Yemen by September 30?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.