Middle East · resolved market
Israel strike on Yemen by September 30?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x88709faba29c616d339cc97f0590e09d05f90bfe4d68cb891076311b259e6779
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Middle Eastevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $22,456
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $20,311
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $22,456 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 34 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Middle East is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Middle East | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x591f…5610backed No | 1c | 3,469$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4fad…1480backed No | 1c | 1,927$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.48 | 207 | 8.2%17 W · 190 L | -6.3wins | -0.03per pick | 11cpaid | -88.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1555…7d82backed No | 7c | 1,333$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 44 | 29.5%13 W · 31 L | -2.3wins | -0.05per pick | 35cpaid | -37.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6df6…8458backed No | 27c | 1,211$323 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$322.97 | 99 | 55.6%55 W · 44 L | +10.5wins | +0.11per pick | 45cpaid | +17%equal weight | 59+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x52f5…19dabacked No | 13c | 923.86$124 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$124.36 | 122 | 45.9%56 W · 66 L | +7.6wins | +0.06per pick | 40cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4303…0f53backed No | 18c | 633.22$116 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$116.21 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | +0.8wins | +0.11per pick | 32cpaid | +100.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc8ab…6418backed Yes | 79c | 400$316 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$84 | 643 | 39.3%253 W · 390 L | -59.4wins | -0.09per pick | 49cpaid | +8.8%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xfc53…9754backed No | 4c | 400$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 70 | 25.7%18 W · 52 L | +3.1wins | +0.04per pick | 21cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0f58…5ff2backed Yes | 67c | 362.82$241 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$121.51 | 69 | 44.9%31 W · 38 L | +3.6wins | +0.05per pick | 40cpaid | +22%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x662c…bfe7backed Yes | 80c | 356.51$285 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$71.3 | 85 | 52.9%45 W · 40 L | +4.9wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | +14%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xefde…783dbacked Yes | 74c | 300$222 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$78 | 458 | 43.7%200 W · 258 L | +8.0wins | +0.02per pick | 42cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x39d0…4fe8backed No | 23c | 244.89$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.34 | 316 | 49.7%157 W · 159 L | +1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -11.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x68f9…d046backed No | 33c | 242.42$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | -1.8wins | -0.25per pick | 40cpaid | -62.4%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa9a1…c98abacked Yes | 74c | 212.96$158 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55.29 | 125 | 24.8%31 W · 94 L | -9.5wins | -0.08per pick | 32cpaid | -47.3%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x1cfc…2111backed No | 8c | 173.63$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.64 | 408 | 28.9%118 W · 290 L | -29.5wins | -0.07per pick | 36cpaid | -36%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x2230…a66cbacked Yes | 79c | 166.63$131 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.53 | 22 | 72.7%16 W · 6 L | +3.7wins | +0.17per pick | 56cpaid | +20.1%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x9d84…1344backed No | 25c | 153.58$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.88 | 264 | 23.9%63 W · 201 L | -9.1wins | -0.03per pick | 27cpaid | -40.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa8c9…74f1backed No | 11c | 144.99$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.69 | 94 | 14.9%14 W · 80 L | +2.7wins | +0.03per pick | 12cpaid | +86.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc9e5…f261backed Yes | 74c | 120$89 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.2 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -1.6wins | -0.27per pick | 60cpaid | -55.3%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xdfaa…79a7backed No | 17c | 100.23$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.37 | 317 | 19.2%61 W · 256 L | -23.1wins | -0.07per pick | 27cpaid | -41%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked No | 12c | 100$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 776 | 36.9%286 W · 490 L | +6.9wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -35.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6fba…1318backed No | 25c | 80$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | -0.2wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -18.9%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xff22…8e79backed No | 26c | 76.88$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.99 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.6wins | -0.19per pick | 19cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x23cb…658ebacked Yes | 79c | 73.67$58 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.36 | 57 | 43.9%25 W · 32 L | -1.0wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -22.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8e14…6cadbacked No | 32c | 64.03$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.51 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.6wins | -0.15per pick | 15cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9d0b…ad65backed Yes | 75c | 56$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -1.2wins | -0.20per pick | 53cpaid | -53.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x68bf…459fbacked Yes | 73c | 54.78$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.79 | 36 | 36.1%13 W · 23 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 36cpaid | +174.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa314…5ba7backed Yes | 73c | 41.38$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.03 | 58 | 55.2%32 W · 26 L | +2.4wins | +0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x047a…cf22backed Yes | 75c | 29.45$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.36 | 29 | 24.1%7 W · 22 L | -6.0wins | -0.21per pick | 45cpaid | -55.1%equal weight | 38-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x85c9…fcc9backed Yes | 75c | 25.87$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.47 | 70 | 52.9%37 W · 33 L | -3.3wins | -0.05per pick | 58cpaid | -18.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd7f1…73cdbacked Yes | 69c | 22.68$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.03 | 563 | 36.6%206 W · 357 L | +44.4wins | +0.08per pick | 29cpaid | +37.7%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes | 75c | 22.36$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.59 | 865 | 42.3%366 W · 499 L | -3.8wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -7.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8607…2ccdbacked Yes | 75c | 20$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5 | 10 | 90%9 W · 1 L | +2.7wins | +0.27per pick | 63cpaid | +58.7%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x398e…3752backed Yes | 75c | 16$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4 | 41 | 61%25 W · 16 L | +3.4wins | +0.08per pick | 53cpaid | +21.9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Middle East and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Israel strike on Yemen by September 30?this page
- Israel strike on Yemen by September 15?No won
- Israel strike on Yemen by September 19?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.