TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Wallet 0x591f…5610

Rebuilt .

Summary

Qualified picks
47
Categories scored
10
Categories below 50
6

Best Category: Us Politics, grading 57 out of 100 (+0.06 per pick).

Best Category Us Politics at 57 out of 100; worst Ukraine at 46.

What is a Tail Score?

A mark out of 100, per Category. 50 means no edge at all — this wallet did about what the prices it paid implied it would. Above 50 it beat those prices; below 50 it did worse than them.

The scale does not move. 100 is a wallet beating the prices it paid by 0.45 per pick and 0 is losing to them by the same, on every wallet, on every page, in every month. So a grade you screenshot today still means what it meant when you took it, and two wallets can be put side by side.

Nobody reaches either end. Across every wallet TailMyPicks has scored, the marks run from roughly 5 to 87 — which is what a fixed ruler costs, and what buys the sentence above.

It is not a win rate. A wallet can win four Picks in five and still grade below 50, if the market was already pricing those outcomes at 90c — it paid for the wins rather than finding them. The vs expected and Avg entry columns below are what separate the two.

The mark is deliberately pulled toward 50 when there is little evidence. Three lucky Picks do not produce a high grade; several hundred consistent ones do. So a modest grade on thousands of Picks means something a high grade on twelve does not.

Because it is shrunk this way, a Category grade is a conservative reading. The headline figure for a wallet is its best Category, so it always understates how badly the wallet does in its worst one — which is why the table below is per Category and not one blended number.

Record by Category

Ordered by how much this wallet actually traded in each Category, not by score — so the Categories it plays most appear first whether they went well or badly. Open any row to see the picks its numbers were computed from — all of them.

CategoryQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
Crypto Milestones Inactivelast resolved Jan 1, 2026, EST1758.8%10 W · 7 L+0.5wins+0.03per pick56cpaid+4.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
Crypto Milestones — the 17 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Crypto Milestones, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Bitcoin reach $200,000 by December 31, 2025?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)13c$100Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 1, 2026, EST-100%-$100
Will Ethereum dip to $3800 in September?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)62c$11Won — open this pick on its own pageOct 1, 2025, EDT+61.3%+$6.74
Ethereum all time high by September 30?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)41c$50Lost — open this pick on its own pageOct 1, 2025, EDT-100%-$50
Will Ethereum reach $5200 in September?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)74c$77Won — open this pick on its own pageOct 1, 2025, EDT+34.3%+$26.44
Will Bitcoin reach $125K in September?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)78c$77Won — open this pick on its own pageOct 1, 2025, EDT+27.4%+$21.11
Will Solana reach $270 in September?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)72c$11Won — open this pick on its own pageOct 1, 2025, EDT+38.9%+$4.28
Will Ethereum reach $5400 in September?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)75c$11Won — open this pick on its own pageOct 1, 2025, EDT+33.3%+$3.67
Will Bitcoin dip to $100K in September?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)74c$187Won — open this pick on its own pageOct 1, 2025, EDT+34.5%+$64.45
Will Ethereum dip to $4000 in September?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)55c$22Lost — open this pick on its own pageSep 25, 2025, EDT-100%-$22
Will Ethereum dip to $4,400 September 15-21?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)24c$11Lost — open this pick on its own pageSep 22, 2025, EDT-100%-$11
Solana reach 215 September 1–7?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)19c$11Won — open this pick on its own pageSep 8, 2025, EDT+413.6%+$45.5
Will Bitcoin reach $125K in August?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)63c$550Won — open this pick on its own pageSep 1, 2025, EDT+57.8%+$317.73
Will Ethereum dip to $3000 in August?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)74c$100Won — open this pick on its own pageSep 1, 2025, EDT+34.2%+$34.23
Will Bitcoin dip to $105K in August?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)70c$50Won — open this pick on its own pageSep 1, 2025, EDT+42.9%+$21.43
Will Solana reach $250 in August?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)11c$51Lost — open this pick on its own pageSep 1, 2025, EDT-100%-$51.26
Will Solana reach $200 in August?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)69c$100Lost — open this pick on its own pageAug 13, 2025, EDT-100%-$100
Will Ethereum reach $4400 in August?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)74c$133Lost — open this pick on its own pageAug 12, 2025, EDT-100%-$133
All 17 picks, newest first.
Ukraine Inactivelast resolved Jan 1, 2026, EST90%0 W · 9 L-1.2wins-0.14per pick14cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
Ukraine — the 9 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Ukraine, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Putin meet with Zelenskyy in 2025?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)18c$702Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 1, 2026, EST-100%-$701.52
Zelenskyy out as Ukraine president by October 31?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)4c$57Lost — open this pick on its own pageNov 1, 2025, EDT-100%-$57.14
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire before October?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)5c$864Lost — open this pick on its own pageOct 1, 2025, EDT-100%-$864.07
Will Putin meet with Zelenskyy by September 30?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)4c$82Lost — open this pick on its own pageOct 1, 2025, EDT-100%-$82.23
Trump, Putin, and Zelensky meet together by September 30?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)4c$220Lost — open this pick on its own pageOct 1, 2025, EDT-100%-$220
Will Trump meet with Volodymyr Zelenskyy in September?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)78c$50Lost — open this pick on its own pageSep 23, 2025, EDT-100%-$50
Will Trump and Putin meet next in Russia?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)2c$20Lost — open this pick on its own pageAug 15, 2025, EDT-100%-$20
Will Trump and Putin not meet?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)3c$40Lost — open this pick on its own pageAug 15, 2025, EDT-100%-$40
Will Trump meet with Vladimir Putin in August?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)4c$38Lost — open this pick on its own pageAug 15, 2025, EDT-100%-$38.21
All 9 picks, newest first.
Us Politics Inactivelast resolved Oct 1, 2025, EDT560%3 W · 2 L+1.8wins+0.35per pick25cpaid+231.4%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
Us Politics — the 5 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Us Politics, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Middle East Inactivelast resolved Oct 1, 2025, EDT50%0 W · 5 L-0.1wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
Middle East — the 5 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Middle East, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

WNBA Inactivelast resolved Aug 20, 2025, EDT30%0 W · 3 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
WNBA — the 3 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in WNBA, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

World Politics Inactivelast resolved Sep 16, 2025, EDT30%0 W · 3 L-0.5wins-0.17per pick17cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
World Politics — the 3 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in World Politics, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Token Launches Inactivelast resolved Sep 14, 2025, EDT20%0 W · 2 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
Token Launches — the 2 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Token Launches, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Ethena win the USDH ticker?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)0c$20Lost — open this pick on its own pageSep 14, 2025, EDT-100%-$20
Will Paxos win the USDH ticker?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)0c$99Lost — open this pick on its own pageSep 14, 2025, EDT-100%-$99.33
All 2 picks, newest first.
College Football Inactivelast resolved Aug 30, 2025, EDT1100%1 W · 0 L+0.5wins+0.46per pick54cpaid+85.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
College Football — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in College Football, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Texas vs. Ohio Statebacked Ohio State · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)54c$50Won — open this pick on its own pageAug 30, 2025, EDT+85.2%+$42.59
All 1 picks, newest first.
NFL Inactivelast resolved Sep 5, 2025, EDT1100%1 W · 0 L+0.2wins+0.21per pick79cpaid+25.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
NFL — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in NFL, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Cowboys vs. Eaglesbacked Eagles · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)79c$100Won — open this pick on its own pageSep 5, 2025, EDT+25.8%+$25.79
All 1 picks, newest first.
Fed Rates Inactivelast resolved Oct 1, 2025, EDT10%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.08per pick8cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
Fed Rates — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Fed Rates, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Lisa Cook out as Fed Governor by September 30?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)8c$580Lost — open this pick on its own pageOct 1, 2025, EDT-100%-$580.29
All 1 picks, newest first.

vs expected is how many more (or fewer) Picks this wallet won than the prices it paid implied it would. It is the column that tells a real edge apart from a record bought by backing favourites. Realizable edge is what that comes to per Pick for somebody copying the wallet, after the cost of getting in behind it. Avg entry is the average price it paid, so a strong record built on heavy favourites shows as one. ROI per pick counts every Pick equally rather than by size, which is how a record earned across many Picks is told apart from one carried by a few large ones. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in — an American night game settles after midnight UTC, so any other zone would name the day after the one it was played on. Inactive means nothing has resolved in that Category recently. The score is kept and the wallet stays reachable here; it only leaves the default leaderboard.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.