Fed Rates · resolved market
Lisa Cook out as Fed Governor by September 30?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xfae907b4c7d9b39fcd27683e3f9e4bdbbafc24f36765b6240a93b8c94ed206fa
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Fed Ratesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $7,598,985
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $9,269,096
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $7,598,985 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 356 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Fed Rates is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Fed Rates | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x8ff6…72aebacked Yes | 14c | 1,451,682$196,149 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$196,148.59 | 9 | 11.1%1 W · 8 L | -0.8wins | -0.09per pick | 20cpaid | -84.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x53e5…6177backed Yes | 6c | 337,167$18,698 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18,698.12 | 16 | 31.3%5 W · 11 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -45.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x755e…c9a9backed Yes | 5c | 302,534$13,941 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13,940.89 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9d84…1344backed Yes | 8c | 149,436$12,420 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12,420.07 | 64 | 21.9%14 W · 50 L | -0.9wins | -0.01per pick | 23cpaid | -48.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbacd…ab35backed Yes | 6c | 122,041$6,880 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$6,880.15 | 28 | 10.7%3 W · 25 L | -3.8wins | -0.14per pick | 24cpaid | -85.6%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x092c…667fbacked Yes | 4c | 95,230$3,857 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,857.49 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x955c…990fbacked Yes | 11c | 60,024$6,604 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$6,603.73 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -1.1wins | -0.27per pick | 27cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe3c0…0403backed Yes | 4c | 50,370$1,902 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,901.66 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.2wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6b0e…e3eabacked Yes | 5c | 49,726$2,595 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,595.19 | 63 | 17.5%11 W · 52 L | -1.4wins | -0.02per pick | 20cpaid | -52.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd5f6…7d33backed Yes | 2c | 35,479$642 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$641.68 | 27 | 7.4%2 W · 25 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 6cpaid | -53.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x49d2…59f7backed Yes | 10c | 32,266$3,087 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,087 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.20per pick | 20cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1cfc…2111backed Yes | 9c | 29,704$2,813 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,812.97 | 181 | 35.4%64 W · 117 L | -16.4wins | -0.09per pick | 44cpaid | -36.3%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xeb22…808abacked Yes | 4c | 28,905$1,184 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,183.92 | 65 | 16.9%11 W · 54 L | -0.8wins | -0.01per pick | 18cpaid | -35.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0c5d…4197backed Yes | 20c | 24,344$4,812 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,812.22 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.31per pick | 31cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x629c…6c01backed Yes | 9c | 22,643$2,101 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,101.09 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +1.3wins | +0.27per pick | 33cpaid | +143.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x96e8…6b7bbacked Yes | 12c | 22,300$2,656 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,655.84 | 16 | 18.8%3 W · 13 L | +0.4wins | +0.02per pick | 16cpaid | -19.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x648c…09c6backed Yes | 11c | 21,670$2,463 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,462.73 | 18 | 66.7%12 W · 6 L | +4.6wins | +0.25per pick | 41cpaid | +55.5%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x0562…9d66backed Yes | 8c | 19,989$1,623 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,623.26 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | +0.4wins | +0.08per pick | 32cpaid | -39.8%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xafbe…8715backed Yes | 4c | 18,448$800 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$800 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.1wins | -0.37per pick | 37cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x227c…03f5backed No | 80c | 17,742$14,155 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,586.63 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.22per pick | 78cpaid | +28%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb42a…b2f9backed Yes | 6c | 17,146$990 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$989.71 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -0.4wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdd22…9ef1backed Yes | 7c | 14,970$978 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$977.68 | 29 | 27.6%8 W · 21 L | -1.7wins | -0.06per pick | 34cpaid | -51%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xeab6…d4c6backed Yes | 6c | 14,302$832 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$831.59 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.5wins | -0.12per pick | 12cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x542a…a81bbacked Yes | 3c | 14,000$487 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$486.9 | 24 | 12.5%3 W · 21 L | +0.6wins | +0.03per pick | 10cpaid | -59.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcce2…d58bbacked Yes | 11c | 13,101$1,441 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,441.11 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | +0.6wins | +0.08per pick | 42cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5339…6821backed Yes | 11c | 13,061$1,437 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,436.71 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.11per pick | 11cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd748…2125backed Yes | 11c | 13,057$1,496 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,495.92 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +1.0wins | +0.16per pick | 51cpaid | +13.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x756d…43e2backed Yes | 11c | 12,447$1,318 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,317.85 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.11per pick | 11cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc8e3…6fb0backed Yes | 12c | 11,610$1,440 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,439.69 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | +0.3wins | +0.06per pick | 34cpaid | -30.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf727…11e0backed Yes | 8c | 11,200$900 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$899.73 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2778…8547backed Yes | 4c | 11,165$432 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$432.34 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -0.8wins | -0.13per pick | 13cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3e7c…596cbacked Yes | 14c | 11,050$1,547 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,547.5 | 15 | 33.3%5 W · 10 L | +0.5wins | +0.03per pick | 30cpaid | -15.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcf7c…f2cbbacked Yes | 2c | 9,999$224 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$223.57 | 15 | 0%0 W · 15 L | -0.6wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7214…433bbacked Yes | 17c | 9,467$1,621 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,620.86 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -0.8wins | -0.13per pick | 30cpaid | -68%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd8b9…403dbacked Yes | 6c | 7,999$462 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$461.69 | 9 | 11.1%1 W · 8 L | -0.5wins | -0.06per pick | 17cpaid | -81.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2687…9a43backed Yes | 6c | 7,875$442 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$441.76 | 14 | 21.4%3 W · 11 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 22cpaid | -62.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6e7e…2a50backed Yes | 13c | 7,692$1,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,000 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.23per pick | 23cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x591f…5610backed Yes | 8c | 7,609$580 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$580.29 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf681…3ad1backed Yes | 9c | 7,557$680 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$680.16 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.09per pick | 9cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x07d4…8991backed Yes | 3c | 7,500$193 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$193 | 38 | 5.3%2 W · 36 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 5cpaid | -75.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0825…0b5dbacked Yes | 15c | 7,236$1,085 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,085.41 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.15per pick | 15cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x234b…a67ebacked Yes | 16c | 7,123$1,115 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,114.65 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.20per pick | 20cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6503…f0a4backed Yes | 10c | 7,053$691 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$690.92 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x71e5…d10bbacked Yes | 10c | 7,000$695 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$694.62 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | -0.6wins | -0.09per pick | 23cpaid | -63.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfc4a…104fbacked Yes | 12c | 6,470$750 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$750 | 9 | 11.1%1 W · 8 L | -1.4wins | -0.15per pick | 26cpaid | -78.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc324…07bebacked Yes | 10c | 6,202$650 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$650 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa635…8530backed Yes | 9c | 5,750$534 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$533.63 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.9wins | -0.30per pick | 30cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0e7e…79a2backed Yes | 7c | 5,608$419 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$418.74 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.17per pick | 17cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2ad1…d070backed Yes | 12c | 5,310$614 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$613.7 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -0.2wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x653d…fb30backed Yes | 3c | 5,151$160 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$160 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd1ea…4b97backed Yes | 12c | 5,050$606 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$605.96 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.12per pick | 12cpaid | -100%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2a3b…3035backed Yes | 10c | 5,000$500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$500 | 8 | 12.5%1 W · 7 L | -1.1wins | -0.14per pick | 26cpaid | -65.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf04f…dc65backed Yes | 9c | 5,000$450 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$450 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.2wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x71ed…d338backed No | 79c | 4,761$3,763 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$997.98 | 22 | 31.8%7 W · 15 L | -2.0wins | -0.09per pick | 41cpaid | -34%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1955…aef1backed Yes | 4c | 4,675$169 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$168.73 | 48 | 47.9%23 W · 25 L | +3.2wins | +0.07per pick | 41cpaid | +6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3680…a456backed Yes | 3c | 4,580$160 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$160.16 | 11 | 36.4%4 W · 7 L | +1.9wins | +0.17per pick | 19cpaid | -13.2%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x75e7…9080backed Yes | 12c | 4,300$508 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$507.96 | 43 | 20.9%9 W · 34 L | -0.7wins | -0.02per pick | 23cpaid | -37.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2e92…a962backed Yes | 11c | 4,293$462 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$461.91 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.11per pick | 11cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x805a…4c2bbacked Yes | 4c | 4,273$171 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$170.66 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdaf4…f5dcbacked Yes | 12c | 4,186$502 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$502.37 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.12per pick | 12cpaid | -100%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xacc8…7d08backed Yes | 13c | 4,135$538 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$537.52 | 23 | 17.4%4 W · 19 L | +0.4wins | +0.02per pick | 15cpaid | +214.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3c28…4e9cbacked Yes | 11c | 4,120$453 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$453.25 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.11per pick | 11cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x96e0…b648backed Yes | 22c | 4,056$904 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$903.79 | 21 | 19%4 W · 17 L | -1.4wins | -0.06per pick | 25cpaid | -39%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0113…6f26backed Yes | 10c | 4,026$403 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$402.64 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +1.7wins | +0.34per pick | 46cpaid | +93.4%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x93fb…3e4abacked Yes | 10c | 4,006$415 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$415.32 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.6wins | -0.21per pick | 21cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7b6d…58f6backed Yes | 10c | 4,000$400 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$400 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | 0.0wins | +0.01per pick | 19cpaid | -22.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb45e…605fbacked No | 79c | 3,923$3,099 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$823.89 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.20per pick | 80cpaid | +25.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xeb6f…25f0backed Yes | 7c | 3,876$279 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$278.58 | 44 | 15.9%7 W · 37 L | -1.5wins | -0.03per pick | 19cpaid | -76.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xda55…667bbacked Yes | 10c | 3,832$376 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$375.6 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.16per pick | 16cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd8ca…7229backed Yes | 10c | 3,500$350 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$350 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.5wins | +0.12per pick | 38cpaid | -13.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd039…2532backed Yes | 7c | 3,341$218 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$217.68 | 31 | 25.8%8 W · 23 L | +0.7wins | +0.02per pick | 24cpaid | +276.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa4ff…84f6backed Yes | 5c | 3,293$161 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$161.33 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x93c4…dca6backed Yes | 6c | 3,090$177 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$177 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | +0.8wins | +0.08per pick | 32cpaid | -39%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa9a1…c98abacked Yes | 5c | 3,057$161 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$160.51 | 28 | 21.4%6 W · 22 L | -0.8wins | -0.03per pick | 24cpaid | -62.5%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe6c5…8732backed Yes | 6c | 3,026$180 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$180.38 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.5wins | -0.17per pick | 17cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2525…b919backed Yes | 14c | 3,000$420 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$420 | 51 | 31.4%16 W · 35 L | -3.8wins | -0.07per pick | 39cpaid | -39.5%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xef9b…7606backed Yes | 9c | 2,980$263 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$262.89 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.17per pick | 17cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa8af…325ebacked Yes | 17c | 2,950$499 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$499.39 | 29 | 31%9 W · 20 L | +0.8wins | +0.03per pick | 28cpaid | -43.9%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x946b…6f57backed Yes | 6c | 2,907$188 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$187.98 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.15per pick | 15cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x32a4…3956backed Yes | 12c | 2,860$351 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$350.94 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | -1.5wins | -0.21per pick | 36cpaid | -81.3%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb120…cf85backed Yes | 10c | 2,755$275 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$275.46 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7a9b…6133backed Yes | 9c | 2,747$237 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$236.87 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.16per pick | 16cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd478…4fa1backed Yes | 8c | 2,612$219 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$219.04 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.17per pick | 17cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbefa…300dbacked Yes | 6c | 2,595$145 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$144.78 | 82 | 0%0 W · 82 L | -1.8wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x922d…1223backed Yes | 9c | 2,500$225 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$225 | 14 | 7.1%1 W · 13 L | -0.7wins | -0.05per pick | 12cpaid | -80.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x613a…b945backed Yes | 10c | 2,490$248 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$247.99 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.18per pick | 18cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb23a…9a75backed Yes | 5c | 2,456$113 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$112.54 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb72b…f4e0backed Yes | 8c | 2,414$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.18per pick | 18cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeeb1…bf68backed Yes | 11c | 2,413$270 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$269.87 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -0.8wins | -0.13per pick | 13cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3078…0389backed Yes | 14c | 2,302$322 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$321.82 | 107 | 13.1%14 W · 93 L | -8.2wins | -0.08per pick | 21cpaid | -52.6%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xcd4b…8aa4backed Yes | 29c | 2,298$665 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$665.1 | 8 | 12.5%1 W · 7 L | -0.3wins | -0.04per pick | 16cpaid | -82.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x06ec…f845backed Yes | 8c | 2,273$188 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$187.86 | 30 | 26.7%8 W · 22 L | +2.6wins | +0.09per pick | 18cpaid | +42.2%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8005…8de3backed Yes | 11c | 2,273$250 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$250 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.05per pick | 38cpaid | -55.8%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc981…a75dbacked Yes | 11c | 2,264$260 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$260.03 | 17 | 11.8%2 W · 15 L | +0.3wins | +0.02per pick | 10cpaid | -59.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xec92…98f5backed No | 77c | 2,263$1,742 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$520.43 | 9 | 88.9%8 W · 1 L | +2.0wins | +0.22per pick | 67cpaid | +21.3%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xbad2…5296backed Yes | 3c | 2,176$74 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$74.03 | 54 | 53.7%29 W · 25 L | +2.9wins | +0.05per pick | 48cpaid | -11.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked Yes | 7c | 2,124$138 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$138.32 | 200 | 21.5%43 W · 157 L | -10.7wins | -0.05per pick | 27cpaid | -39.4%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 4c | 2,022$87 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$87.5 | 318 | 7.2%23 W · 295 L | -11.1wins | -0.03per pick | 11cpaid | -75%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd9a9…4179backed No | 80c | 2,000$1,600 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$400 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.20per pick | 80cpaid | +25%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe2e7…fc15backed Yes | 17c | 2,000$340 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$340 | 38 | 34.2%13 W · 25 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 35cpaid | -22.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Fed Rates and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Lisa Cook out as Fed Governor by September 30?this page
- Lisa Cook out as Fed Governor by October 31?No won
- Lisa Cook out as Fed Governor by December 31?No won
- Lisa Cook out as Fed Governor by February 28?No won
- Lisa Cook out as Fed Governor by November 30?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.