Fed Rates · resolved market
Lisa Cook out as Fed Governor by October 31?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xe25ca7c547c5545b17bdc80dad92ba3f0b818c9d6e7989e5bd8a06ed98f69bd5
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Fed Ratesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $146,583
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $175,187
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $146,583 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 23 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Fed Rates is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Fed Rates | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x765b…9a2fbacked Yes | 2c | 29,217$600 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$600 | 10 | 10%1 W · 9 L | -0.6wins | -0.06per pick | 16cpaid | -85.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3680…a456backed Yes | 4c | 5,500$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 11 | 36.4%4 W · 7 L | +1.9wins | +0.17per pick | 19cpaid | -13.2%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xeb22…808abacked Yes | 10c | 3,985$391 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$390.92 | 65 | 16.9%11 W · 54 L | -0.8wins | -0.01per pick | 18cpaid | -35.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd320…56bfbacked Yes | 1c | 3,402$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.81 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x283b…3a9bbacked Yes | 0c | 3,385$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.38 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | +0.2wins | +0.03per pick | 14cpaid | -79.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2687…9a43backed Yes | 13c | 2,000$260 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$259.66 | 14 | 21.4%3 W · 11 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 22cpaid | -62.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9e7f…2d2dbacked Yes | 1c | 1,995$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.96 | 7 | 0%0 W · 7 L | -0.2wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd8b9…403dbacked Yes | 11c | 1,353$149 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$148.83 | 9 | 11.1%1 W · 8 L | -0.5wins | -0.06per pick | 17cpaid | -81.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x62f8…7737backed Yes | 12c | 823.73$96 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$96.44 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -1.4wins | -0.28per pick | 28cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd898…aaf1backed Yes | 22c | 531.18$115 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$114.73 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | +0.5wins | +0.09per pick | 31cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe6c5…8732backed Yes | 19c | 361.3$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.5wins | -0.17per pick | 17cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd5f6…7d33backed Yes | 18c | 349.99$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63.5 | 27 | 7.4%2 W · 25 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 6cpaid | -53.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9d84…1344backed Yes | 20c | 299.44$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.25 | 64 | 21.9%14 W · 50 L | -0.9wins | -0.01per pick | 23cpaid | -48.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9205…d9f4backed Yes | 14c | 259.95$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.8 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.9wins | -0.30per pick | 30cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3dcf…0ebebacked Yes | 17c | 200$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.26per pick | 26cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa58d…b9b8backed Yes | 21c | 190$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.9 | 123 | 22.8%28 W · 95 L | -1.9wins | -0.02per pick | 24cpaid | -26.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5d85…4df9backed Yes | 21c | 159$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.85 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.6wins | -0.20per pick | 20cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 78c | 157$123 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.91 | 240 | 46.3%111 W · 129 L | -1.9wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2783…8321backed No | 80c | 125$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +1.2wins | +0.24per pick | 56cpaid | +58.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4d13…a018backed No | 77c | 123.64$95 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.44 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.23per pick | 77cpaid | +30.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x94c5…765abacked Yes | 20c | 60$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.24 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.20per pick | 20cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2953…2ed5backed Yes | 18c | 60$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.8 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +0.7wins | +0.12per pick | 38cpaid | +7.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xff4b…d019backed No | 78c | 58.18$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.8 | 15 | 26.7%4 W · 11 L | -1.4wins | -0.10per pick | 36cpaid | -59.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Fed Rates and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Lisa Cook out as Fed Governor by October 31?this page
- Lisa Cook out as Fed Governor by December 31?No won
- Lisa Cook out as Fed Governor by February 28?No won
- Lisa Cook out as Fed Governor by November 30?No won
- Lisa Cook out as Fed Governor by September 30?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.