Fed Rates · resolved market
Lisa Cook out as Fed Governor by December 31?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xb21c15db48e4c5197b7fdc9bf946a277e2ba8aa2cd0f09631a4b440c689ae7a2
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Fed Ratesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $2,153,774
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $1,934,290
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $2,153,774 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 657 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Fed Rates is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Fed Rates | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x53e5…6177backed Yes | 19c | 243,975$47,210 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47,209.78 | 16 | 31.3%5 W · 11 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -45.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x44c1…ebc1backed No | 74c | 98,533$72,875 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25,658.52 | 12 | 33.3%4 W · 8 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 34cpaid | -49%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe103…59fdbacked Yes | 3c | 74,552$1,977 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,977.13 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +0.7wins | +0.12per pick | 38cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8ff6…72aebacked Yes | 30c | 72,513$21,727 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21,727.22 | 9 | 11.1%1 W · 8 L | -0.8wins | -0.09per pick | 20cpaid | -84.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd748…2125backed No | 75c | 41,100$30,682 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10,417.61 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +1.0wins | +0.16per pick | 51cpaid | +13.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdfe3…73c4backed No | 71c | 40,748$28,998 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11,749.64 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +1.1wins | +0.27per pick | 48cpaid | +34.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc658…b784backed No | 79c | 40,000$31,767 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8,232.9 | 13 | 46.2%6 W · 7 L | +0.6wins | +0.04per pick | 42cpaid | -28.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8795…7544backed No | 75c | 37,817$28,295 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9,522.15 | 11 | 18.2%2 W · 9 L | -0.3wins | -0.03per pick | 21cpaid | -65.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf743…ac84backed No | 70c | 36,003$25,202 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10,800.9 | 12 | 41.7%5 W · 7 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | -25.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xed10…d2e5backed No | 80c | 29,922$23,891 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6,031.72 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | +0.5wins | +0.09per pick | 24cpaid | -50.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd039…2532backed Yes | 4c | 28,683$1,062 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,061.73 | 31 | 25.8%8 W · 23 L | +0.7wins | +0.02per pick | 24cpaid | +276.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x24c8…23e1backed Yes | 10c | 28,505$2,886 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,886.34 | 30 | 13.3%4 W · 26 L | -1.0wins | -0.03per pick | 17cpaid | -76%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2f09…4632backed Yes | 26c | 28,476$7,411 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$7,410.97 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.3wins | +0.07per pick | 43cpaid | -27.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc021…1fa8backed No | 76c | 27,081$20,623 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6,458.19 | 21 | 38.1%8 W · 13 L | +0.7wins | +0.03per pick | 35cpaid | -29.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb412…3026backed No | 75c | 24,000$17,910 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6,090 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +1.1wins | +0.35per pick | 65cpaid | +70.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x49d2…59f7backed Yes | 31c | 22,595$7,052 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$7,052 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.20per pick | 20cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x12d6…f2a8backed Yes | 18c | 22,498$4,013 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,013.03 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -0.3wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6b0e…e3eabacked Yes | 5c | 22,174$1,016 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,016.4 | 63 | 17.5%11 W · 52 L | -1.4wins | -0.02per pick | 20cpaid | -52.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9c17…83c8backed No | 74c | 20,083$14,927 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5,155.98 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.9wins | +0.44per pick | 56cpaid | +96.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8005…8de3backed Yes | 27c | 19,864$5,400 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$5,400 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.05per pick | 38cpaid | -55.8%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4e25…d7a7backed Yes | 21c | 17,428$3,598 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,597.68 | 47 | 21.3%10 W · 37 L | -1.8wins | -0.04per pick | 25cpaid | -19.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6e7e…2a50backed Yes | 32c | 15,611$5,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$5,000 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.23per pick | 23cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7c3d…5c6bbacked Yes | 3c | 13,371$422 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$421.65 | 68 | 29.4%20 W · 48 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 29cpaid | -36.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x33fc…acecbacked Yes | 4c | 13,346$561 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$560.53 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6828…1056backed Yes | 2c | 11,577$198 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$198.1 | 63 | 55.6%35 W · 28 L | +9.6wins | +0.15per pick | 40cpaid | +12.8%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x0c0e…434ebacked No | 75c | 11,506$8,611 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,895.16 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.23per pick | 77cpaid | +29.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7214…433bbacked Yes | 33c | 10,238$3,332 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,331.9 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -0.8wins | -0.13per pick | 30cpaid | -68%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfa39…977fbacked Yes | 1c | 10,133$68 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$68.29 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2577…30cabacked No | 72c | 10,000$7,200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,800 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.28per pick | 72cpaid | +38.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3b44…264ebacked No | 74c | 10,000$7,400 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,600 | 11 | 27.3%3 W · 8 L | -1.2wins | -0.11per pick | 39cpaid | -51.4%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x765b…9a2fbacked Yes | 3c | 10,000$300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$300 | 10 | 10%1 W · 9 L | -0.6wins | -0.06per pick | 16cpaid | -85.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc67b…22d5backed Yes | 4c | 8,556$300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$300 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xeb22…808abacked Yes | 26c | 8,523$2,228 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,228.11 | 65 | 16.9%11 W · 54 L | -0.8wins | -0.01per pick | 18cpaid | -35.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xafbe…8715backed Yes | 27c | 8,191$2,200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,200 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.1wins | -0.37per pick | 37cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xeb6f…25f0backed Yes | 26c | 8,069$2,089 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,089.36 | 44 | 15.9%7 W · 37 L | -1.5wins | -0.03per pick | 19cpaid | -76.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1955…aef1backed No | 75c | 7,969$6,000 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,968.99 | 48 | 47.9%23 W · 25 L | +3.2wins | +0.07per pick | 41cpaid | +6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x551e…b0e0backed No | 70c | 7,500$5,250 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,250 | 19 | 68.4%13 W · 6 L | +4.4wins | +0.23per pick | 45cpaid | +53.8%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x398d…c7c3backed No | 74c | 7,499$5,549 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,949.77 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.6wins | +0.14per pick | 61cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x30e4…5102backed Yes | 25c | 6,987$1,768 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,767.99 | 35 | 48.6%17 W · 18 L | +5.3wins | +0.15per pick | 34cpaid | -4.4%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x955c…990fbacked Yes | 24c | 6,695$1,639 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,639.2 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -1.1wins | -0.27per pick | 27cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x62f8…7737backed Yes | 22c | 6,595$1,483 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,482.73 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -1.4wins | -0.28per pick | 28cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x613a…b945backed Yes | 26c | 6,484$1,690 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,690.15 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.18per pick | 18cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x07d4…8991backed Yes | 1c | 6,102$84 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$84.4 | 38 | 5.3%2 W · 36 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 5cpaid | -75.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf1f9…1245backed No | 74c | 6,000$4,460 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,540 | 56 | 37.5%21 W · 35 L | +0.5wins | +0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -23.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfa32…bd9abacked No | 74c | 5,800$4,265 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,535 | 26 | 26.9%7 W · 19 L | -1.3wins | -0.05per pick | 32cpaid | -61.9%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdb40…3612backed Yes | 2c | 5,579$122 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$121.79 | 15 | 13.3%2 W · 13 L | -0.7wins | -0.04per pick | 18cpaid | -73.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x712f…b93bbacked No | 68c | 5,300$3,613 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,687 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -0.3wins | -0.05per pick | 39cpaid | -53.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4d09…f007backed Yes | 27c | 5,296$1,430 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,430 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.27per pick | 27cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x47ab…95dfbacked Yes | 3c | 5,274$132 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$131.85 | 26 | 26.9%7 W · 19 L | -1.0wins | -0.04per pick | 31cpaid | -57.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2cc7…5536backed Yes | 29c | 5,149$1,516 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,515.53 | 14 | 7.1%1 W · 13 L | -1.1wins | -0.08per pick | 15cpaid | -88.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa61e…0abdbacked Yes | 25c | 5,000$1,250 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,250 | 15 | 26.7%4 W · 11 L | +1.4wins | +0.10per pick | 17cpaid | -36.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2a3b…3035backed Yes | 24c | 5,000$1,200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,200 | 8 | 12.5%1 W · 7 L | -1.1wins | -0.14per pick | 26cpaid | -65.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x614d…1546backed No | 70c | 5,000$3,500 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,500 | 13 | 69.2%9 W · 4 L | +1.5wins | +0.11per pick | 58cpaid | +24.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd8ca…7229backed Yes | 24c | 5,000$1,200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,200 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.5wins | +0.12per pick | 38cpaid | -13.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xac80…97b1backed No | 74c | 5,000$3,700 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,300 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.8wins | +0.41per pick | 59cpaid | +81.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xaf39…3101backed No | 77c | 5,000$3,850 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,149.99 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +0.9wins | +0.18per pick | 62cpaid | +8.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5d85…4df9backed Yes | 27c | 4,847$1,308 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,307.68 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.6wins | -0.20per pick | 20cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1cfc…2111backed Yes | 28c | 4,765$1,315 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,314.56 | 181 | 35.4%64 W · 117 L | -16.4wins | -0.09per pick | 44cpaid | -36.3%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xc8e3…6fb0backed Yes | 25c | 4,700$1,159 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,158.77 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | +0.3wins | +0.06per pick | 34cpaid | -30.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd0cd…7014backed Yes | 24c | 4,676$1,122 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,122.24 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 28cpaid | -66.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x54b5…4b31backed No | 74c | 4,659$3,447 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,212.28 | 25 | 44%11 W · 14 L | +2.5wins | +0.10per pick | 34cpaid | -16.4%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4ab2…1888backed Yes | 24c | 4,521$1,106 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,105.92 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.16per pick | 16cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc8d0…50babacked Yes | 5c | 4,505$203 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$202.71 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6bab…1292backed No | 70c | 4,444$3,111 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,333.2 | 11 | 63.6%7 W · 4 L | +2.0wins | +0.19per pick | 45cpaid | +54.6%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x9205…d9f4backed Yes | 27c | 4,343$1,152 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,152.36 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.9wins | -0.30per pick | 30cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd47a…64b0backed No | 80c | 4,235$3,388 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$846.91 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.20per pick | 80cpaid | +25%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x59a5…afc8backed No | 74c | 4,200$3,093 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,107 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.26per pick | 74cpaid | +35.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x06e8…4675backed Yes | 3c | 4,106$103 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$103.28 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | -0.8wins | -0.10per pick | 35cpaid | -68.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x041e…8d9bbacked Yes | 25c | 4,068$1,026 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,026 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.16per pick | 16cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5754…e515backed Yes | 7c | 4,000$260 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$260 | 35 | 20%7 W · 28 L | -1.9wins | -0.06per pick | 26cpaid | -61.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6d9f…9790backed No | 74c | 4,000$2,960 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,039.99 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +0.9wins | +0.15per pick | 52cpaid | +8.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdd22…9ef1backed No | 74c | 4,000$2,940 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,059.97 | 29 | 27.6%8 W · 21 L | -1.7wins | -0.06per pick | 34cpaid | -51%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2687…9a43backed Yes | 6c | 3,949$218 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$217.83 | 14 | 21.4%3 W · 11 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 22cpaid | -62.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9f68…5e99backed Yes | 25c | 3,863$966 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$965.77 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.25per pick | 25cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbad2…5296backed No | 71c | 3,724$2,654 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,070.13 | 54 | 53.7%29 W · 25 L | +2.9wins | +0.05per pick | 48cpaid | -11.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x368b…2458backed No | 74c | 3,543$2,615 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$928.11 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.1wins | +0.03per pick | 31cpaid | -54.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6cf4…a478backed Yes | 25c | 3,535$884 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$883.78 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.25per pick | 25cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1767…99c6backed Yes | 26c | 3,480$905 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$904.83 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.26per pick | 26cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa9a1…c98abacked Yes | 10c | 3,398$340 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$339.9 | 28 | 21.4%6 W · 22 L | -0.8wins | -0.03per pick | 24cpaid | -62.5%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfba0…a7c4backed Yes | 24c | 3,297$803 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$803.04 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.17per pick | 17cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xea83…5c8fbacked No | 77c | 3,250$2,503 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$747.5 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.08per pick | 67cpaid | +8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3f3b…1d77backed Yes | 27c | 3,208$866 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$866.42 | 33 | 15.2%5 W · 28 L | -2.2wins | -0.07per pick | 22cpaid | -76%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x946b…6f57backed Yes | 23c | 3,194$748 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$748.11 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.15per pick | 15cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x066a…550dbacked No | 77c | 3,172$2,453 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$719.32 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.2wins | +0.03per pick | 57cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x08c8…1da2backed No | 77c | 3,142$2,433 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$708.81 | 17 | 64.7%11 W · 6 L | +1.9wins | +0.11per pick | 53cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4b92…42e6backed No | 70c | 3,124$2,195 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$928.23 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | +1.2wins | +0.17per pick | 26cpaid | +71.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2a01…6397backed No | 77c | 3,040$2,338 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$701.31 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.37per pick | 63cpaid | +67%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x37e4…c991backed Yes | 27c | 3,006$812 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$811.75 | 25 | 48%12 W · 13 L | +2.3wins | +0.09per pick | 39cpaid | -9.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0ab1…7df3backed No | 76c | 3,000$2,275 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$725 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | -1.8wins | -0.23per pick | 60cpaid | -51%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa1ff…55bdbacked Yes | 30c | 3,000$900 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$900 | 18 | 27.8%5 W · 13 L | -0.9wins | -0.05per pick | 33cpaid | -47%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x086d…fe29backed Yes | 25c | 3,000$740 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$740 | 14 | 35.7%5 W · 9 L | -1.1wins | -0.08per pick | 44cpaid | -33.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc0ee…ec14backed No | 75c | 3,000$2,241 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$759.46 | 4 | 100%4 W · 0 L | +1.4wins | +0.34per pick | 66cpaid | +57.7%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4534…f867backed Yes | 21c | 3,000$630 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$630 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.16per pick | 16cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4d73…bae7backed No | 71c | 3,000$2,130 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$869.99 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | -0.2wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -29.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc408…4675backed No | 78c | 2,974$2,312 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$662.6 | 12 | 25%3 W · 9 L | -2.5wins | -0.21per pick | 46cpaid | -67.3%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x4578…c54abacked Yes | 27c | 2,932$779 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$778.55 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.16per pick | 16cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe646…0a39backed Yes | 3c | 2,860$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0e7e…79a2backed Yes | 27c | 2,811$764 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$764.07 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.17per pick | 17cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa635…8530backed Yes | 24c | 2,810$684 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$684.14 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.9wins | -0.30per pick | 30cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6d4b…e293backed Yes | 3c | 2,779$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Fed Rates and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Lisa Cook out as Fed Governor by December 31?this page
- Lisa Cook out as Fed Governor by October 31?No won
- Lisa Cook out as Fed Governor by February 28?No won
- Lisa Cook out as Fed Governor by November 30?No won
- Lisa Cook out as Fed Governor by September 30?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.