TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Wallet 0x0ab1…7df3

Rebuilt .

Summary

Qualified picks
156
Categories scored
23
Categories below 50
16

Best Category: AI, grading 55 out of 100 (+0.04 per pick).

Best Category AI at 55 out of 100; worst NBA at 38.

What is a Tail Score?

A mark out of 100, per Category. 50 means no edge at all — this wallet did about what the prices it paid implied it would. Above 50 it beat those prices; below 50 it did worse than them.

The scale does not move. 100 is a wallet beating the prices it paid by 0.45 per pick and 0 is losing to them by the same, on every wallet, on every page, in every month. So a grade you screenshot today still means what it meant when you took it, and two wallets can be put side by side.

Nobody reaches either end. Across every wallet TailMyPicks has scored, the marks run from roughly 5 to 87 — which is what a fixed ruler costs, and what buys the sentence above.

It is not a win rate. A wallet can win four Picks in five and still grade below 50, if the market was already pricing those outcomes at 90c — it paid for the wins rather than finding them. The vs expected and Avg entry columns below are what separate the two.

The mark is deliberately pulled toward 50 when there is little evidence. Three lucky Picks do not produce a high grade; several hundred consistent ones do. So a modest grade on thousands of Picks means something a high grade on twelve does not.

Because it is shrunk this way, a Category grade is a conservative reading. The headline figure for a wallet is its best Category, so it always understates how badly the wallet does in its worst one — which is why the table below is per Category and not one blended number.

Record by Category

Ordered by how much this wallet actually traded in each Category, not by score — so the Categories it plays most appear first whether they went well or badly. Open any row to see the picks its numbers were computed from — all of them.

CategoryQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
Fifa International Inactivelast resolved Jul 14, 2026, EDT2462.5%15 W · 9 L-2.0wins-0.08per pick71cpaid-10%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
Fifa International — the 24 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Fifa International, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
France vs. Spain: Team to Advancebacked France · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)60c$19Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 14, 2026, EDT-100%-$19.34
Will Portugal win on 2026-07-06?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)78c$3,863Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 6, 2026, EDT+28.2%+$1,089.57
Paraguay vs. France: Paraguay O/U 0.5backed Under · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)67c$1,005Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 4, 2026, EDT+49.3%+$495
Canada vs. Morocco: Team to Advancebacked Morocco · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)73c$1,825Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 4, 2026, EDT+37%+$675
Will Spain win on 2026-07-02?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)75c$2,309Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 2, 2026, EDT+33.8%+$779.98
Will United States win on 2026-07-01?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)72c$992Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 1, 2026, EDT+38.9%+$385.92
Belgium vs. Senegal: O/U 3.5backed Under · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)77c$770Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$770
Will Spain win Group H in the 2026 FIFA World Cup?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)79c$395Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 27, 2026, EDT+26.6%+$104.98
Will Ivory Coast advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)78c$390Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 25, 2026, EDT+28.2%+$110
Will Panama advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)64c$320Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 23, 2026, EDT+56.3%+$180
Will Jordan finish last in Group J in the 2026 FIFA World Cup Group Stage?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)75c$375Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 23, 2026, EDT+33.3%+$125
Will Jordan advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)79c$395Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 23, 2026, EDT+26.6%+$105
Will Haiti finish last in Group C in the 2026 FIFA World Cup Group Stage?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)78c$390Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 20, 2026, EDT+28.2%+$110
Will Türkiye win Group D in the 2026 FIFA World Cup?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)37c$185Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 20, 2026, EDT-100%-$185
Will USA win Group D in the 2026 FIFA World Cup?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)39c$78Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 20, 2026, EDT+156.4%+$122
Will Turkiye advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)80c$400Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 20, 2026, EDT-100%-$400
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)77c$5,286Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 17, 2026, EDT-100%-$5,286.03
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)70c$3,731Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 17, 2026, EDT+42.9%+$1,599.03
Spread: Spain (-1.5)backed Spain · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)78c$452Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 15, 2026, EDT-100%-$452.4
Spread: Germany (-5.5)backed Curaçao · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)67c$435Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 14, 2026, EDT-100%-$434.53
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-02?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)72c$198Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 2, 2026, EDT-100%-$198
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-01?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)79c$794Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 1, 2026, EDT+26.6%+$211.1
Will Italy qualify for the 2026 FIFA World Cup?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)79c$1,580Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 31, 2026, EDT-100%-$1,580
Will Turkey qualify for the 2026 FIFA World Cup?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)68c$2,540Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 31, 2026, EDT+47.3%+$1,202.27
All 24 picks, newest first.
Other European Leagueslast resolved Aug 21, 2026, EDT2157.1%12 W · 9 L-2.1wins-0.10per pick67cpaid-17%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
Other European Leagues — the 21 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Other European Leagues, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Galatasaray SK win on 2026-08-21?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)65c$832Won — open this pick on its own pageAug 21, 2026, EDT+53.8%+$448.08
Galatasaray SK vs. Çorum FK: O/U 4.5backed Under · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)78c$319Won — open this pick on its own pageAug 14, 2026, EDT+28.2%+$90
Spread: Galatasaray SK (-2.5)backed Çorum FK · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)63c$285Won — open this pick on its own pageAug 14, 2026, EDT+58.7%+$167.39
Will NAC Breda win on 2026-05-10?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)51c$912Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 11, 2026, EDT-100%-$911.99
Will Galatasaray SK win on 2026-05-09?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)74c$4,161Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 9, 2026, EDT+34.6%+$1,439.52
Will Konyaspor win on 2026-04-27?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)70c$663Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 27, 2026, EDT-100%-$662.93
Will Galatasaray SK win on 2026-04-26?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)44c$189Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 26, 2026, EDT+127.3%+$240.65
Will Kayserispor vs. Çaykur Rizespor end in a draw?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)56c$215Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 25, 2026, EDT-100%-$215.13
Will Fenerbahçe SK win on 2026-04-17?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)75c$10,807Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 17, 2026, EDT-100%-$10,806.89
Will Lillestrøm SK win on 2026-04-15?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)78c$962Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 15, 2026, EDT+28.2%+$271.46
Will CD Tondela vs. Gil Vicente FC end in a draw?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)77c$3,047Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 13, 2026, EDT+30.1%+$915.73
Galatasaray SK vs. Kocaelispor: Both Teams to Scorebacked No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)76c$2,979Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 12, 2026, EDT-100%-$2,978.55
Rams Başakşehir FK vs. Gençlerbirliği SK: Both Teams to Scorebacked No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)65c$455Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 11, 2026, EDT+53.8%+$244.99
FC Porto vs. FC Famalicão: O/U 2.5backed Under · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)70c$350Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 4, 2026, EDT-100%-$350
Will Galatasaray SK win on 2026-04-04?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)47c$236Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 4, 2026, EDT-100%-$235.81
Will Fenerbahçe SK win on 2026-03-17?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)78c$493Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 17, 2026, EDT+28.2%+$139.05
FC Porto vs. Moreirense FC: O/U 2.5backed Under · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)46c$230Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 15, 2026, EDT-100%-$230
Will FC Arouca vs. Sport Lisboa e Benfica end in a draw?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)74c$106Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 14, 2026, EDT-100%-$105.9
FC Arouca vs. Sport Lisboa e Benfica: O/U 3.5backed Under · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)79c$99Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 14, 2026, EDT+26.6%+$26.41
Will CD Tondela win on 2025-12-13?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)68c$407Won — open this pick on its own pageDec 15, 2025, EST+46.6%+$189.78
Will Fenerbahçe SK win on 2025-12-15?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)79c$876Won — open this pick on its own pageDec 15, 2025, EST+26.6%+$232.96
All 21 picks, newest first.
NBA Inactivelast resolved Jun 5, 2026, EDT1827.8%5 W · 13 L-4.7wins-0.26per pick54cpaid-28%equal weight38-0.11 edge/pick
NBA — the 18 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in NBA, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Knicks vs. Spursbacked Spurs · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)68c$145Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 5, 2026, EDT-100%-$145.11
Knicks vs. Spursbacked Spurs · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)64c$257Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 3, 2026, EDT-100%-$256.82
Will Kon Knueppel win the 2025–26 NBA Rookie of the Year award?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)73c$875Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 27, 2026, EDT-100%-$875.05
Thunder vs. Sunsbacked Thunder · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)78c$2,113Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 25, 2026, EDT+28.2%+$596.11
Warriors vs. Clippersbacked Clippers · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)68c$4,306Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 16, 2026, EDT-100%-$4,306.35
Trail Blazers vs. Sunsbacked Suns · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)57c$570Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 15, 2026, EDT-100%-$570
Nuggets vs. Spursbacked Nuggets · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)23c$658Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 13, 2026, EDT+334.8%+$2,203.28
Grizzlies vs. Rocketsbacked Grizzlies · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)11c$208Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 13, 2026, EDT-100%-$208.25
76ers vs. Rocketsbacked Rockets · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)69c$1,035Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 10, 2026, EDT+44.9%+$465
Bulls vs. Grizzliesbacked Grizzlies · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)27c$81Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 29, 2026, EDT+270.4%+$219
Hawks vs. Pistonsbacked Pistons · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)23c$46Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 26, 2026, EDT-100%-$46
Timberwolves vs. Celticsbacked Celtics · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)75c$2,625Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 23, 2026, EDT-100%-$2,625
Lakers vs. Heatbacked Heat · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)78c$390Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 20, 2026, EDT-100%-$390
Spread: Celtics (-20.5)backed Celtics · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)72c$365Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 14, 2026, EDT-100%-$365.22
Spread: Celtics (-26.5)backed Celtics · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)60c$60Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 14, 2026, EDT-100%-$60
Cavaliers vs. Bullsbacked Cavaliers · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)76c$115Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 18, 2025, EST-100%-$115
Hornets vs. Cavaliersbacked Hornets · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)46c$92Won — open this pick on its own pageDec 14, 2025, EST+117.4%+$107.99
Spread: Pacers (-10.5)backed Pacers · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)1c$15Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 14, 2025, EST-100%-$14.71
All 18 picks, newest first.
World Politics Inactivelast resolved Mar 22, 2026, EDT1250%6 W · 6 L-1.7wins-0.14per pick64cpaid-21.4%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
World Politics — the 12 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in World Politics, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will CDU win the most seats in the 2026 Rhineland-Palatinate parliamentary elections?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)63c$441Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 22, 2026, EDT+58.7%+$259
Will CDU win the most seats in the 2026 Baden-Württemberg parliamentary elections?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)70c$781Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 9, 2026, EDT+42.1%+$328.93
Will Luís Marques Mendes win the 2026 Portugal presidential election?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)74c$2,192Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 8, 2026, EST-100%-$2,191.97
Will Rafał Trzaskowski be the next President of Poland?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)74c$843Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 2, 2025, EDT-100%-$842.97
Will George Simion win the Romanian presidential election?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)72c$2,981Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 18, 2025, EDT-100%-$2,980.6
Will Mark Carney be the next Canadian Prime Minister?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)69c$690Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 30, 2025, EDT+44.9%+$310
Will The Left make it into the Bundestag as a Fraktion?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)70c$70Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 14, 2025, EDT-100%-$70
Will the CDU/CSU win by 8-10%?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)78c$1,170Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 14, 2025, EDT-100%-$1,170
Will the AfD win 20-25% of the vote in the German election?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)53c$1,611Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 14, 2025, EDT+87.8%+$1,414.79
FDP wins 5% or more of vote in German election? backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)59c$734Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 14, 2025, EDT+70.7%+$518.51
Will SPD win the second most seats in the next German election?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)16c$38Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 24, 2025, EST-100%-$37.6
Will Brazil unban X before October?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)72c$72Won — open this pick on its own pageOct 1, 2024, EDT+38.9%+$28
All 12 picks, newest first.
Middle East Inactivelast resolved Mar 1, 2026, EST1040%4 W · 6 L-1.9wins-0.19per pick59cpaid-41.4%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
Middle East — the 10 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Middle East, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Iran strike on US military by February 28?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)65c$3,176Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 1, 2026, EST-100%-$3,176.04
Israel strikes Iran by February 28, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)75c$3,766Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 28, 2026, EST-100%-$3,766.38
Odds US strikes Iran by Feb 28 over 30% on Friday?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)75c$216Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 20, 2026, EST+32.7%+$70.68
Odds of Khamenei being out as Supreme Leader by March 31 over 25% in February?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)34c$170Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 18, 2026, EST-100%-$170
Israel x Hamas ceasefire by September 30?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)68c$340Won — open this pick on its own pageOct 1, 2025, EDT+47.1%+$160
Israel x Hamas ceasefire before August?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)69c$2,063Won — open this pick on its own pageAug 1, 2025, EDT+45.4%+$936.56
Israel x Hamas ceasefire by July 15?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)62c$435Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 16, 2025, EDT+60.9%+$265
US military action against Iran before July?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)66c$825Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 21, 2025, EDT-100%-$824.86
Will Israel invade Lebanon before November?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)16c$162Lost — open this pick on its own pageOct 5, 2024, EDT-100%-$161.51
Iran strike on Israel before November?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)60c$128Lost — open this pick on its own pageOct 1, 2024, EDT-100%-$128.03
All 10 picks, newest first.
Tweets Inactivelast resolved Mar 6, 2026, EST1010%1 W · 9 L-3.6wins-0.36per pick46cpaid-84.8%equal weight39-0.10 edge/pick
Tweets — the 10 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Tweets, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from February 27 to March 6, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)11c$23Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 6, 2026, EST-100%-$22.6
Will Elon Musk post 360-379 tweets from February 6 to February 13, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)51c$99Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 13, 2026, EST-100%-$98.6
Will Elon Musk post 165-189 tweets from February 9 to February 11, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)51c$79Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 11, 2026, EST-100%-$79.12
Will Elon Musk post 540-559 tweets from December 30 to January 6, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)71c$331Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 6, 2026, EST-100%-$331.45
Will Elon Musk post 460-479 tweets from December 26 to January 2, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)34c$303Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 2, 2026, EST-100%-$303.48
Will Elon Musk post 140-159 tweets from November 4 to November 11, 2025?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)50c$21Lost — open this pick on its own pageNov 11, 2025, EST-100%-$20.8
Will Elon Musk post 120-139 tweets from November 4 to November 11, 2025?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)50c$180Lost — open this pick on its own pageNov 11, 2025, EST-100%-$180.21
Will Elon tweet 360–389 times August 8–August 15?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)24c$18Lost — open this pick on its own pageAug 13, 2025, EDT-100%-$18
Will Elon tweet 255 or more times August 1–August 8?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)66c$451Won — open this pick on its own pageAug 6, 2025, EDT+52.1%+$235.13
Will Elon tweet 230 or more times May 30–June 6?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)53c$54Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 5, 2025, EDT-100%-$53.52
All 10 picks, newest first.
Champions Leaguelast resolved Aug 26, 2026, EDT862.5%5 W · 3 L-0.6wins-0.07per pick69cpaid-6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
Champions League — the 8 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Champions League, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Fed Rates Inactivelast resolved Apr 29, 2026, EDT837.5%3 W · 5 L-1.8wins-0.23per pick60cpaid-51%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
Fed Rates — the 8 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Fed Rates, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25+ bps after the April 2026 meeting?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)2c$92Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 29, 2026, EDT-100%-$91.8
Will the 10-year treasury yield hit 4.3% by March 31?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)46c$184Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 21, 2026, EST-100%-$183.5
Lisa Cook out as Fed Governor by December 31?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)76c$2,275Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 1, 2026, EST+31.9%+$725
Will Powell say "Sorry" during December press conference?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)53c$317Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 10, 2025, EST-100%-$317.03
Will Powell say "Pandemic" during December press conference?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)76c$227Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 10, 2025, EST-100%-$226.92
Will 3 Fed rate cuts happen in 2025?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)74c$6,654Won — open this pick on its own pageDec 10, 2025, EST+35.3%+$2,346.16
Will Powell say "China" during July Press Conference?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)80c$65Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 30, 2025, EDT+25%+$16.14
Will Powell say "Pandemic" during July Press Conference?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)76c$51Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 30, 2025, EDT-100%-$51.09
All 8 picks, newest first.
Us Politics Inactivelast resolved Jan 1, 2026, EST757.1%4 W · 3 L+0.1wins+0.01per pick56cpaid-8.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
Us Politics — the 7 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Us Politics, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Europa Conference Leaguelast resolved Aug 20, 2026, EDT757.1%4 W · 3 L-0.8wins-0.11per pick68cpaid-14.3%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
Europa Conference League — the 7 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Europa Conference League, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Tennis Inactivelast resolved Jul 12, 2026, EDT683.3%5 W · 1 L+0.8wins+0.13per pick71cpaid+23.2%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
Tennis — the 6 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Tennis, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Serie A Inactivelast resolved May 10, 2026, EDT3100%3 W · 0 L+0.8wins+0.28per pick72cpaid+39.9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
Serie A — the 3 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Serie A, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Spread: US Cremonese (-2.5)backed US Cremonese · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)65c$2,215Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 10, 2026, EDT+54.3%+$1,203.19
Will Como 1907 win on 2026-04-26?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)79c$98Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 26, 2026, EDT+26.6%+$26.12
SS Lazio vs. AC Milan: O/U 2.5backed Under · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)72c$165Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 15, 2026, EDT+38.9%+$64.02
All 3 picks, newest first.
La Ligalast resolved Aug 19, 2026, EDT366.7%2 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.10per pick77cpaid-12.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
La Liga — the 3 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in La Liga, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Premier League Inactivelast resolved May 8, 2026, EDT366.7%2 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.10per pick77cpaid-12.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
Premier League — the 3 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Premier League, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Bundesliga Inactivelast resolved Apr 5, 2026, EDT333.3%1 W · 2 L-1.2wins-0.39per pick72cpaid-56.2%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
Bundesliga — the 3 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Bundesliga, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will 1. FC Köln win on 2026-04-05?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)76c$18,821Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 5, 2026, EDT+31.5%+$5,924.84
Will 1. FC Union Berlin win on 2026-03-15?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)80c$160Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 15, 2026, EDT-100%-$160
Spread: FC Bayern München (-2.5)backed FC Bayern München · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)61c$205Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 14, 2025, EST-100%-$205.11
All 3 picks, newest first.
AI Inactivelast resolved Jun 30, 2025, EDT2100%2 W · 0 L+1.1wins+0.57per pick43cpaid+328.8%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
AI — the 2 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in AI, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Commodities Inactivelast resolved Apr 1, 2026, EDT2100%2 W · 0 L+0.5wins+0.25per pick75cpaid+34%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
Commodities — the 2 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Commodities, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

South American Leagues Inactivelast resolved Apr 11, 2026, EDT250%1 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.15per pick65cpaid-24.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
South American Leagues — the 2 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in South American Leagues, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Mirassol FC vs. EC Bahia end in a draw?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)65c$472Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 11, 2026, EDT-100%-$472.49
Spread: São Paulo FC (-1.5)backed São Paulo FC · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)66c$1,190Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 4, 2026, EDT+51.5%+$613.17
All 2 picks, newest first.
Music Inactivelast resolved Feb 2, 2026, EST250%1 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.20per pick70cpaid-37%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
Music — the 2 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Music, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Us Midterms Inactivelast resolved Dec 2, 2025, EST250%1 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.26per pick76cpaid-30.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
Us Midterms — the 2 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Us Midterms, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Zohran Mamdani win by 0-10%?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)79c$790Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 2, 2025, EST-100%-$790
Senate control after 2024 election?backed Republicans · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)72c$360Won — open this pick on its own pageNov 8, 2024, EST+38.9%+$140
All 2 picks, newest first.
F1 Inactivelast resolved Dec 7, 2025, EST1100%1 W · 0 L+0.2wins+0.23per pick77cpaid+29.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
F1 — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in F1, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Lando Norris be the 2025 Drivers Champion?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)77c$1,753Won — open this pick on its own pageDec 7, 2025, EST+29.8%+$522.4
All 1 picks, newest first.
Movies Inactivelast resolved Mar 16, 2026, EDT1100%1 W · 0 L+0.2wins+0.20per pick80cpaid+25%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
Movies — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Movies, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will One Battle After Another win Best Picture at the 98th Academy Awards?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)80c$697Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 16, 2026, EDT+25%+$174.23
All 1 picks, newest first.
Token Launches Inactivelast resolved Oct 17, 2024, EDT10%0 W · 1 L-0.7wins-0.69per pick69cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
Token Launches — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Token Launches, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Trump launch a coin before the election?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)69c$69Lost — open this pick on its own pageOct 17, 2024, EDT-100%-$69
All 1 picks, newest first.

vs expected is how many more (or fewer) Picks this wallet won than the prices it paid implied it would. It is the column that tells a real edge apart from a record bought by backing favourites. Realizable edge is what that comes to per Pick for somebody copying the wallet, after the cost of getting in behind it. Avg entry is the average price it paid, so a strong record built on heavy favourites shows as one. ROI per pick counts every Pick equally rather than by size, which is how a record earned across many Picks is told apart from one carried by a few large ones. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in — an American night game settles after midnight UTC, so any other zone would name the day after the one it was played on. Inactive means nothing has resolved in that Category recently. The score is kept and the wallet stays reachable here; it only leaves the default leaderboard.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.