Middle East · resolved market
Israel x Hamas ceasefire by September 30?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xc922c0b8fcc0898ab6ac49ad47f5e14977b4d68a45f4c54f04d8303bb0ed9df8
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Middle Eastevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $5,951,177
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $6,074,693
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $5,951,177 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 593 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Middle East is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Middle East | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x8ff6…72aebacked Yes | 5c | 1,061,068$56,624 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56,623.64 | 16 | 12.5%2 W · 14 L | -1.4wins | -0.09per pick | 21cpaid | -46.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0a85…fe9dbacked Yes | 5c | 277,038$14,198 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14,197.58 | 38 | 23.7%9 W · 29 L | +1.8wins | +0.05per pick | 19cpaid | +14.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9d84…1344backed Yes | 8c | 129,753$9,750 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$9,749.71 | 264 | 23.9%63 W · 201 L | -9.1wins | -0.03per pick | 27cpaid | -40.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd426…334abacked Yes | 6c | 125,555$7,339 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$7,338.86 | 362 | 27.9%101 W · 261 L | +11.6wins | +0.03per pick | 25cpaid | -28.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd519…932cbacked Yes | 2c | 106,999$2,116 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,115.99 | 112 | 8.9%10 W · 102 L | -6.1wins | -0.05per pick | 14cpaid | +149.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x32d1…b949backed Yes | 4c | 93,374$3,950 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,949.76 | 104 | 26%27 W · 77 L | +5.7wins | +0.06per pick | 20cpaid | +101.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfd66…fb6dbacked Yes | 7c | 75,486$5,296 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$5,295.64 | 170 | 18.2%31 W · 139 L | +5.8wins | +0.03per pick | 15cpaid | +77.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4dfd…6e4abacked Yes | 10c | 73,876$7,675 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$7,674.74 | 37 | 70.3%26 W · 11 L | +10.0wins | +0.27per pick | 43cpaid | +109.7%equal weight | 68+0.16 edge/pick |
| 0x9178…a2b2backed Yes | 3c | 67,251$2,113 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,112.54 | 208 | 23.1%48 W · 160 L | +7.3wins | +0.04per pick | 20cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf743…ac84backed Yes | 2c | 60,847$1,105 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,104.54 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.4wins | +0.11per pick | 39cpaid | -26.2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x090a…01b4backed Yes | 17c | 60,082$10,093 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10,092.87 | 46 | 50%23 W · 23 L | +2.7wins | +0.06per pick | 44cpaid | +6.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbaa2…2c73backed No | 77c | 54,430$41,783 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12,647.71 | 377 | 40.1%151 W · 226 L | -4.4wins | -0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -14.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5273…d975backed Yes | 3c | 50,300$1,573 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,572.77 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +1.6wins | +0.52per pick | 15cpaid | +293%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x398d…c7c3backed Yes | 4c | 50,029$1,901 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,901.07 | 17 | 23.5%4 W · 13 L | -0.8wins | -0.04per pick | 28cpaid | -60.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6a83…4c59backed Yes | 21c | 45,151$9,590 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$9,590.13 | 427 | 38.9%166 W · 261 L | +30.7wins | +0.07per pick | 32cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x253d…3307backed Yes | 2c | 44,801$957 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$956.83 | 26 | 42.3%11 W · 15 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -28.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6b0e…e3eabacked Yes | 4c | 44,118$1,572 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,571.51 | 428 | 18.7%80 W · 348 L | +9.5wins | +0.02per pick | 16cpaid | -28.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbacd…ab35backed Yes | 11c | 41,322$4,567 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,566.63 | 489 | 23.5%115 W · 374 L | -14.3wins | -0.03per pick | 26cpaid | -46.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7c3d…5c6bbacked Yes | 8c | 35,760$2,714 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,713.9 | 511 | 38.7%198 W · 313 L | +18.7wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xeb22…808abacked Yes | 3c | 35,490$904 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$904.27 | 152 | 32.9%50 W · 102 L | +15.8wins | +0.10per pick | 22cpaid | +19.8%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x52f5…19dabacked Yes | 17c | 28,628$4,739 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,739.36 | 122 | 45.9%56 W · 66 L | +7.6wins | +0.06per pick | 40cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2648…36a0backed Yes | 4c | 26,475$1,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,000 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xecaa…77a9backed No | 68c | 25,462$17,224 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8,238.51 | 74 | 62.2%46 W · 28 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2778…8547backed Yes | 4c | 25,000$1,096 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,096.18 | 40 | 22.5%9 W · 31 L | +2.6wins | +0.07per pick | 16cpaid | +39.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x68c2…1711backed Yes | 16c | 24,539$3,943 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,942.72 | 312 | 41.7%130 W · 182 L | +15.4wins | +0.05per pick | 37cpaid | +66.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8f42…b88fbacked Yes | 14c | 22,847$3,147 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,147.28 | 367 | 50.4%185 W · 182 L | +39.6wins | +0.11per pick | 40cpaid | +26.5%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xac24…10f2backed Yes | 5c | 22,000$1,045 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,045.18 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.19per pick | 19cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x950a…b380backed Yes | 0c | 21,621$78 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$77.86 | 67 | 3%2 W · 65 L | -0.7wins | -0.01per pick | 4cpaid | -73%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6f19…b9ffbacked Yes | 2c | 20,000$420 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$419.9 | 38 | 47.4%18 W · 20 L | +3.0wins | +0.08per pick | 39cpaid | -11.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4e1c…f9b3backed Yes | 3c | 18,266$498 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$498 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0cbf…4665backed Yes | 6c | 18,134$1,005 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,005.06 | 65 | 46.2%30 W · 35 L | +1.3wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc658…b784backed Yes | 2c | 15,403$344 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$344.3 | 75 | 42.7%32 W · 43 L | +2.6wins | +0.03per pick | 39cpaid | -18.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4344…f90dbacked Yes | 7c | 14,397$1,009 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,009.16 | 121 | 38.8%47 W · 74 L | +11.3wins | +0.09per pick | 29cpaid | +24.5%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x843b…2673backed Yes | 6c | 14,387$806 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$806.38 | 21 | 23.8%5 W · 16 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 24cpaid | -40.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x648c…d256backed Yes | 4c | 14,000$509 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$509.18 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +1.1wins | +0.38per pick | 28cpaid | +142.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x477f…19aabacked Yes | 9c | 13,276$1,195 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,194.8 | 92 | 34.8%32 W · 60 L | -7.9wins | -0.09per pick | 43cpaid | -42.4%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x09d6…0fdabacked No | 79c | 13,041$10,241 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,800 | 51 | 52.9%27 W · 24 L | -5.1wins | -0.10per pick | 63cpaid | -22.9%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x07d4…8991backed Yes | 3c | 12,100$348 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$347.88 | 96 | 4.2%4 W · 92 L | +0.5wins | +0.01per pick | 4cpaid | -25.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xba8d…009dbacked Yes | 10c | 12,062$1,183 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,182.53 | 134 | 19.4%26 W · 108 L | +0.9wins | +0.01per pick | 19cpaid | -40.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x052c…5a0ebacked No | 71c | 11,733$8,311 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,421.91 | 15 | 46.7%7 W · 8 L | -2.7wins | -0.18per pick | 64cpaid | -21.5%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x696e…74e8backed Yes | 15c | 11,370$1,666 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,666.06 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | +1.3wins | +0.13per pick | 27cpaid | +34.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe003…f9b5backed Yes | 13c | 11,214$1,463 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,463.4 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | +0.2wins | +0.04per pick | 21cpaid | -56.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xca6e…46f2backed Yes | 1c | 10,873$160 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$160.42 | 28 | 14.3%4 W · 24 L | +1.7wins | +0.06per pick | 8cpaid | -16.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4e25…d7a7backed Yes | 18c | 10,455$1,845 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,845.42 | 84 | 50%42 W · 42 L | +5.4wins | +0.06per pick | 44cpaid | -9.4%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x712f…b93bbacked Yes | 32c | 10,439$3,333 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,333.11 | 10 | 60%6 W · 4 L | +0.7wins | +0.07per pick | 53cpaid | -15.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x022e…2a77backed Yes | 15c | 10,316$1,556 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,556.06 | 22 | 27.3%6 W · 16 L | -3.9wins | -0.18per pick | 45cpaid | -55.7%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x1710…3344backed Yes | 5c | 8,810$411 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$410.69 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | +0.5wins | +0.09per pick | 24cpaid | -11.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf9a2…a79abacked Yes | 3c | 8,166$274 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$273.52 | 58 | 29.3%17 W · 41 L | +3.8wins | +0.07per pick | 23cpaid | +9.1%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x24c8…23e1backed Yes | 2c | 7,715$161 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$160.58 | 284 | 27.8%79 W · 205 L | -1.9wins | -0.01per pick | 28cpaid | -37.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa99c…3070backed Yes | 12c | 7,500$900 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$900 | 13 | 7.7%1 W · 12 L | -1.6wins | -0.12per pick | 20cpaid | -78.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x986a…a1b6backed No | 76c | 7,465$5,677 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,788.45 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -1.0wins | -0.17per pick | 50cpaid | +5.4%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x05a0…944ebacked Yes | 7c | 6,943$486 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$486.04 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc19d…865ebacked Yes | 2c | 6,604$125 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$124.94 | 179 | 34.6%62 W · 117 L | +5.5wins | +0.03per pick | 32cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1128…cfa5backed Yes | 2c | 6,484$142 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$141.8 | 56 | 16.1%9 W · 47 L | -1.6wins | -0.03per pick | 19cpaid | -44.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa9a1…c98abacked Yes | 6c | 6,429$413 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$413.04 | 125 | 24.8%31 W · 94 L | -9.5wins | -0.08per pick | 32cpaid | -47.3%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x9cdd…3e97backed Yes | 11c | 6,338$717 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$717.24 | 169 | 61.5%104 W · 65 L | +12.6wins | +0.07per pick | 54cpaid | +20.7%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x1955…aef1backed Yes | 13c | 6,273$789 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$788.86 | 81 | 43.2%35 W · 46 L | +1.6wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0891…508abacked Yes | 2c | 6,125$102 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$102.49 | 9 | 66.7%6 W · 3 L | +3.8wins | +0.42per pick | 24cpaid | +251.3%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xb100…6461backed Yes | 27c | 5,773$1,559 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,558.69 | 205 | 49.8%102 W · 103 L | +10.4wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4c2d…f8aebacked Yes | 31c | 5,647$1,738 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,738.03 | 404 | 33.7%136 W · 268 L | +12.1wins | +0.03per pick | 31cpaid | -14.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6db9…4ab5backed Yes | 2c | 5,555$107 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$106.95 | 24 | 16.7%4 W · 20 L | -0.4wins | -0.02per pick | 19cpaid | -45.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc2c4…c131backed Yes | 14c | 5,327$749 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$749.14 | 176 | 46.6%82 W · 94 L | +5.0wins | +0.03per pick | 44cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe111…0473backed Yes | 2c | 5,316$120 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$120 | 38 | 34.2%13 W · 25 L | +5.0wins | +0.13per pick | 21cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x478d…e4bbbacked Yes | 3c | 5,228$158 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$157.66 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5a24…71e8backed No | 66c | 5,175$3,421 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,754.5 | 21 | 57.1%12 W · 9 L | +0.9wins | +0.04per pick | 53cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x04d1…a4fbbacked Yes | 4c | 5,149$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 10 | 30%3 W · 7 L | -0.8wins | -0.08per pick | 38cpaid | -32.8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x93c4…dca6backed Yes | 5c | 5,089$249 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$249.27 | 54 | 63%34 W · 20 L | +4.1wins | +0.08per pick | 55cpaid | +21%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x016e…c700backed No | 69c | 5,059$3,499 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,559.5 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | +0.4wins | +0.05per pick | 57cpaid | -8.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x90a0…7e0abacked Yes | 3c | 5,000$145 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$145 | 31 | 54.8%17 W · 14 L | +2.4wins | +0.08per pick | 47cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2027…6d60backed Yes | 5c | 5,000$248 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$248 | 57 | 47.4%27 W · 30 L | +1.4wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x75e7…9080backed Yes | 14c | 5,000$687 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$687.48 | 179 | 31.3%56 W · 123 L | +6.2wins | +0.03per pick | 28cpaid | -15.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1555…7d82backed Yes | 13c | 4,942$642 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$642.44 | 44 | 29.5%13 W · 31 L | -2.3wins | -0.05per pick | 35cpaid | -37.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x66c1…2c72backed Yes | 3c | 4,935$147 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$147.12 | 291 | 29.9%87 W · 204 L | +21.5wins | +0.07per pick | 23cpaid | +30.3%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xc851…cd2abacked Yes | 14c | 4,465$624 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$623.56 | 75 | 38.7%29 W · 46 L | +2.4wins | +0.03per pick | 35cpaid | -17.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe154…0b7fbacked Yes | 7c | 4,365$288 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$288.09 | 476 | 9.9%47 W · 429 L | +15.1wins | +0.03per pick | 7cpaid | +75.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x12d6…f2a8backed Yes | 3c | 4,360$112 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$111.64 | 195 | 31.8%62 W · 133 L | +2.5wins | +0.01per pick | 31cpaid | -15.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2d0e…49e3backed Yes | 6c | 4,308$267 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$267.05 | 39 | 20.5%8 W · 31 L | +0.5wins | +0.01per pick | 19cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa54c…6ffebacked Yes | 1c | 4,071$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -0.3wins | -0.04per pick | 38cpaid | -35.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x84fd…2f81backed Yes | 21c | 3,932$836 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$836.45 | 194 | 45.9%89 W · 105 L | +8.7wins | +0.04per pick | 41cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd5d6…4da7backed Yes | 4c | 3,931$147 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$146.7 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | +0.1wins | +0.02per pick | 31cpaid | -33.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9622…01efbacked Yes | 8c | 3,922$315 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$315.16 | 27 | 48.1%13 W · 14 L | +1.0wins | +0.04per pick | 44cpaid | +29%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe71f…283abacked Yes | 4c | 3,903$149 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$148.73 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +1.0wins | +0.24per pick | 26cpaid | +34.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf9b7…60a4backed Yes | 2c | 3,805$92 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$92.36 | 225 | 47.1%106 W · 119 L | +9.5wins | +0.04per pick | 43cpaid | +25%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa4b3…87b8backed Yes | 8c | 3,721$292 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$291.84 | 165 | 37%61 W · 104 L | +11.5wins | +0.07per pick | 30cpaid | +25.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x80a4…22ccbacked Yes | 27c | 3,704$1,006 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,006.48 | 162 | 46.3%75 W · 87 L | -0.9wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5754…e515backed Yes | 14c | 3,559$482 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$481.74 | 111 | 41.4%46 W · 65 L | +0.8wins | +0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -12%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe8a6…644bbacked Yes | 3c | 3,516$96 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$95.84 | 194 | 28.9%56 W · 138 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -23.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe8b2…a645backed Yes | 12c | 3,460$400 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$400 | 13 | 38.5%5 W · 8 L | -1.0wins | -0.07per pick | 46cpaid | -29.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2d82…a1eebacked Yes | 15c | 3,332$500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$499.74 | 12 | 41.7%5 W · 7 L | -0.8wins | -0.07per pick | 49cpaid | -35.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x65bf…4b91backed Yes | 4c | 3,314$148 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$147.75 | 92 | 17.4%16 W · 76 L | -2.4wins | -0.03per pick | 20cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4636…1052backed No | 70c | 3,293$2,315 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$977.82 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | +0.7wins | +0.09per pick | 54cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x66d7…5b7bbacked Yes | 40c | 3,265$1,319 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,318.9 | 12 | 25%3 W · 9 L | -1.1wins | -0.09per pick | 34cpaid | -40.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe471…c87cbacked Yes | 17c | 3,221$541 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$541.22 | 235 | 25.5%60 W · 175 L | +4.0wins | +0.02per pick | 24cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x81e1…7265backed Yes | 18c | 3,165$560 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$560.31 | 70 | 35.7%25 W · 45 L | +3.9wins | +0.06per pick | 30cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x12bf…ddafbacked No | 66c | 3,143$2,087 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,055.51 | 156 | 26.9%42 W · 114 L | -10.6wins | -0.07per pick | 34cpaid | -38%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xe876…7346backed Yes | 6c | 3,142$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +1.2wins | +0.39per pick | 28cpaid | +76.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x086d…fe29backed Yes | 3c | 3,131$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.7wins | +0.24per pick | 9cpaid | +96.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8b71…fb6fbacked Yes | 13c | 3,122$400 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$400 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.4wins | -0.12per pick | 12cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3922…971bbacked No | 59c | 3,120$1,830 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,289.78 | 8 | 75%6 W · 2 L | +1.6wins | +0.20per pick | 55cpaid | +32.5%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7ea7…79acbacked Yes | 3c | 3,100$90 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$90 | 33 | 45.5%15 W · 18 L | -1.0wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | +28%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Middle East and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.