TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Middle East · resolved market

Israel x Hamas ceasefire by September 30?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Noof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Middle Eastevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$5,951,177
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$6,074,693

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $5,951,177 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 593 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Middle East is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Middle East
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x8ff6…72aebacked Yes5c1,061,068$56,624 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$56,623.641612.5%2 W · 14 L-1.4wins-0.09per pick21cpaid-46.2%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x0a85…fe9dbacked Yes5c277,038$14,198 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14,197.583823.7%9 W · 29 L+1.8wins+0.05per pick19cpaid+14.9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x9d84…1344backed Yes8c129,753$9,750 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$9,749.7126423.9%63 W · 201 L-9.1wins-0.03per pick27cpaid-40.2%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xd426…334abacked Yes6c125,555$7,339 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$7,338.8636227.9%101 W · 261 L+11.6wins+0.03per pick25cpaid-28.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xd519…932cbacked Yes2c106,999$2,116 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,115.991128.9%10 W · 102 L-6.1wins-0.05per pick14cpaid+149.6%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x32d1…b949backed Yes4c93,374$3,950 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,949.7610426%27 W · 77 L+5.7wins+0.06per pick20cpaid+101.4%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xfd66…fb6dbacked Yes7c75,486$5,296 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5,295.6417018.2%31 W · 139 L+5.8wins+0.03per pick15cpaid+77.1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x4dfd…6e4abacked Yes10c73,876$7,675 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$7,674.743770.3%26 W · 11 L+10.0wins+0.27per pick43cpaid+109.7%equal weight68+0.16 edge/pick
0x9178…a2b2backed Yes3c67,251$2,113 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,112.5420823.1%48 W · 160 L+7.3wins+0.04per pick20cpaid+0.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xf743…ac84backed Yes2c60,847$1,105 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,104.54450%2 W · 2 L+0.4wins+0.11per pick39cpaid-26.2%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x090a…01b4backed Yes17c60,082$10,093 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10,092.874650%23 W · 23 L+2.7wins+0.06per pick44cpaid+6.3%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xbaa2…2c73backed No77c54,430$41,783 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$12,647.7137740.1%151 W · 226 L-4.4wins-0.01per pick41cpaid-14.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5273…d975backed Yes3c50,300$1,573 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,572.77366.7%2 W · 1 L+1.6wins+0.52per pick15cpaid+293%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x398d…c7c3backed Yes4c50,029$1,901 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,901.071723.5%4 W · 13 L-0.8wins-0.04per pick28cpaid-60.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x6a83…4c59backed Yes21c45,151$9,590 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$9,590.1342738.9%166 W · 261 L+30.7wins+0.07per pick32cpaid+8.6%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x253d…3307backed Yes2c44,801$957 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$956.832642.3%11 W · 15 L-0.3wins-0.01per pick43cpaid-28.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6b0e…e3eabacked Yes4c44,118$1,572 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,571.5142818.7%80 W · 348 L+9.5wins+0.02per pick16cpaid-28.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xbacd…ab35backed Yes11c41,322$4,567 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,566.6348923.5%115 W · 374 L-14.3wins-0.03per pick26cpaid-46.9%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x7c3d…5c6bbacked Yes8c35,760$2,714 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,713.951138.7%198 W · 313 L+18.7wins+0.04per pick35cpaid+3.4%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xeb22…808abacked Yes3c35,490$904 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$904.2715232.9%50 W · 102 L+15.8wins+0.10per pick22cpaid+19.8%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0x52f5…19dabacked Yes17c28,628$4,739 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,739.3612245.9%56 W · 66 L+7.6wins+0.06per pick40cpaid+1.9%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x2648…36a0backed Yes4c26,475$1,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,00010%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.04per pick4cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xecaa…77a9backed No68c25,462$17,224 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8,238.517462.2%46 W · 28 L0.0wins0.00per pick62cpaid-3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2778…8547backed Yes4c25,000$1,096 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,096.184022.5%9 W · 31 L+2.6wins+0.07per pick16cpaid+39.6%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x68c2…1711backed Yes16c24,539$3,943 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,942.7231241.7%130 W · 182 L+15.4wins+0.05per pick37cpaid+66.4%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x8f42…b88fbacked Yes14c22,847$3,147 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,147.2836750.4%185 W · 182 L+39.6wins+0.11per pick40cpaid+26.5%equal weight61+0.10 edge/pick
0xac24…10f2backed Yes5c22,000$1,045 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,045.1820%0 W · 2 L-0.4wins-0.19per pick19cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x950a…b380backed Yes0c21,621$78 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$77.86673%2 W · 65 L-0.7wins-0.01per pick4cpaid-73%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6f19…b9ffbacked Yes2c20,000$420 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$419.93847.4%18 W · 20 L+3.0wins+0.08per pick39cpaid-11.6%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x4e1c…f9b3backed Yes3c18,266$498 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$49810%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0cbf…4665backed Yes6c18,134$1,005 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,005.066546.2%30 W · 35 L+1.3wins+0.02per pick44cpaid-4.2%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xc658…b784backed Yes2c15,403$344 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$344.37542.7%32 W · 43 L+2.6wins+0.03per pick39cpaid-18.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x4344…f90dbacked Yes7c14,397$1,009 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,009.1612138.8%47 W · 74 L+11.3wins+0.09per pick29cpaid+24.5%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x843b…2673backed Yes6c14,387$806 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$806.382123.8%5 W · 16 L-0.1wins0.00per pick24cpaid-40.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x648c…d256backed Yes4c14,000$509 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$509.18366.7%2 W · 1 L+1.1wins+0.38per pick28cpaid+142.3%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x477f…19aabacked Yes9c13,276$1,195 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,194.89234.8%32 W · 60 L-7.9wins-0.09per pick43cpaid-42.4%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x09d6…0fdabacked No79c13,041$10,241 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,8005152.9%27 W · 24 L-5.1wins-0.10per pick63cpaid-22.9%equal weight43-0.07 edge/pick
0x07d4…8991backed Yes3c12,100$348 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$347.88964.2%4 W · 92 L+0.5wins+0.01per pick4cpaid-25.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xba8d…009dbacked Yes10c12,062$1,183 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,182.5313419.4%26 W · 108 L+0.9wins+0.01per pick19cpaid-40.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x052c…5a0ebacked No71c11,733$8,311 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,421.911546.7%7 W · 8 L-2.7wins-0.18per pick64cpaid-21.5%equal weight43-0.07 edge/pick
0x696e…74e8backed Yes15c11,370$1,666 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,666.061040%4 W · 6 L+1.3wins+0.13per pick27cpaid+34.5%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xe003…f9b5backed Yes13c11,214$1,463 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,463.4425%1 W · 3 L+0.2wins+0.04per pick21cpaid-56.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xca6e…46f2backed Yes1c10,873$160 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$160.422814.3%4 W · 24 L+1.7wins+0.06per pick8cpaid-16.7%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x4e25…d7a7backed Yes18c10,455$1,845 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,845.428450%42 W · 42 L+5.4wins+0.06per pick44cpaid-9.4%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x712f…b93bbacked Yes32c10,439$3,333 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,333.111060%6 W · 4 L+0.7wins+0.07per pick53cpaid-15.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x022e…2a77backed Yes15c10,316$1,556 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,556.062227.3%6 W · 16 L-3.9wins-0.18per pick45cpaid-55.7%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0x1710…3344backed Yes5c8,810$411 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$410.69633.3%2 W · 4 L+0.5wins+0.09per pick24cpaid-11.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xf9a2…a79abacked Yes3c8,166$274 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$273.525829.3%17 W · 41 L+3.8wins+0.07per pick23cpaid+9.1%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x24c8…23e1backed Yes2c7,715$161 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$160.5828427.8%79 W · 205 L-1.9wins-0.01per pick28cpaid-37.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa99c…3070backed Yes12c7,500$900 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$900137.7%1 W · 12 L-1.6wins-0.12per pick20cpaid-78.7%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x986a…a1b6backed No76c7,465$5,677 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,788.45633.3%2 W · 4 L-1.0wins-0.17per pick50cpaid+5.4%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x05a0…944ebacked Yes7c6,943$486 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$486.0420%0 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.07per pick7cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xc19d…865ebacked Yes2c6,604$125 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$124.9417934.6%62 W · 117 L+5.5wins+0.03per pick32cpaid+1.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x1128…cfa5backed Yes2c6,484$142 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$141.85616.1%9 W · 47 L-1.6wins-0.03per pick19cpaid-44.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xa9a1…c98abacked Yes6c6,429$413 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$413.0412524.8%31 W · 94 L-9.5wins-0.08per pick32cpaid-47.3%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x9cdd…3e97backed Yes11c6,338$717 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$717.2416961.5%104 W · 65 L+12.6wins+0.07per pick54cpaid+20.7%equal weight57+0.07 edge/pick
0x1955…aef1backed Yes13c6,273$789 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$788.868143.2%35 W · 46 L+1.6wins+0.02per pick41cpaid+0.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x0891…508abacked Yes2c6,125$102 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$102.49966.7%6 W · 3 L+3.8wins+0.42per pick24cpaid+251.3%equal weight62+0.11 edge/pick
0xb100…6461backed Yes27c5,773$1,559 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,558.6920549.8%102 W · 103 L+10.4wins+0.05per pick45cpaid-8.7%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x4c2d…f8aebacked Yes31c5,647$1,738 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,738.0340433.7%136 W · 268 L+12.1wins+0.03per pick31cpaid-14.2%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x6db9…4ab5backed Yes2c5,555$107 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$106.952416.7%4 W · 20 L-0.4wins-0.02per pick19cpaid-45.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xc2c4…c131backed Yes14c5,327$749 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$749.1417646.6%82 W · 94 L+5.0wins+0.03per pick44cpaid-2.5%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xe111…0473backed Yes2c5,316$120 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1203834.2%13 W · 25 L+5.0wins+0.13per pick21cpaid+1.8%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x478d…e4bbbacked Yes3c5,228$158 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$157.6640%0 W · 4 L-0.1wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5a24…71e8backed No66c5,175$3,421 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,754.52157.1%12 W · 9 L+0.9wins+0.04per pick53cpaid-8.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x04d1…a4fbbacked Yes4c5,149$200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2001030%3 W · 7 L-0.8wins-0.08per pick38cpaid-32.8%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x93c4…dca6backed Yes5c5,089$249 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$249.275463%34 W · 20 L+4.1wins+0.08per pick55cpaid+21%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x016e…c700backed No69c5,059$3,499 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,559.5862.5%5 W · 3 L+0.4wins+0.05per pick57cpaid-8.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x90a0…7e0abacked Yes3c5,000$145 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1453154.8%17 W · 14 L+2.4wins+0.08per pick47cpaid-1.6%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x2027…6d60backed Yes5c5,000$248 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2485747.4%27 W · 30 L+1.4wins+0.02per pick45cpaid-7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x75e7…9080backed Yes14c5,000$687 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$687.4817931.3%56 W · 123 L+6.2wins+0.03per pick28cpaid-15.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x1555…7d82backed Yes13c4,942$642 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$642.444429.5%13 W · 31 L-2.3wins-0.05per pick35cpaid-37.5%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x66c1…2c72backed Yes3c4,935$147 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$147.1229129.9%87 W · 204 L+21.5wins+0.07per pick23cpaid+30.3%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0xc851…cd2abacked Yes14c4,465$624 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$623.567538.7%29 W · 46 L+2.4wins+0.03per pick35cpaid-17.1%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xe154…0b7fbacked Yes7c4,365$288 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$288.094769.9%47 W · 429 L+15.1wins+0.03per pick7cpaid+75.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x12d6…f2a8backed Yes3c4,360$112 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$111.6419531.8%62 W · 133 L+2.5wins+0.01per pick31cpaid-15.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x2d0e…49e3backed Yes6c4,308$267 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$267.053920.5%8 W · 31 L+0.5wins+0.01per pick19cpaid+3.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xa54c…6ffebacked Yes1c4,071$57 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$57633.3%2 W · 4 L-0.3wins-0.04per pick38cpaid-35.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x84fd…2f81backed Yes21c3,932$836 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$836.4519445.9%89 W · 105 L+8.7wins+0.04per pick41cpaid-0.4%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xd5d6…4da7backed Yes4c3,931$147 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$146.7633.3%2 W · 4 L+0.1wins+0.02per pick31cpaid-33.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9622…01efbacked Yes8c3,922$315 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$315.162748.1%13 W · 14 L+1.0wins+0.04per pick44cpaid+29%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xe71f…283abacked Yes4c3,903$149 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$148.73450%2 W · 2 L+1.0wins+0.24per pick26cpaid+34.2%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xf9b7…60a4backed Yes2c3,805$92 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$92.3622547.1%106 W · 119 L+9.5wins+0.04per pick43cpaid+25%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xa4b3…87b8backed Yes8c3,721$292 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$291.8416537%61 W · 104 L+11.5wins+0.07per pick30cpaid+25.5%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x80a4…22ccbacked Yes27c3,704$1,006 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,006.4816246.3%75 W · 87 L-0.9wins-0.01per pick47cpaid-7.4%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0x5754…e515backed Yes14c3,559$482 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$481.7411141.4%46 W · 65 L+0.8wins+0.01per pick41cpaid-12%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xe8a6…644bbacked Yes3c3,516$96 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$95.8419428.9%56 W · 138 L+0.1wins0.00per pick29cpaid-23.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe8b2…a645backed Yes12c3,460$400 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4001338.5%5 W · 8 L-1.0wins-0.07per pick46cpaid-29.7%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x2d82…a1eebacked Yes15c3,332$500 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$499.741241.7%5 W · 7 L-0.8wins-0.07per pick49cpaid-35.2%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x65bf…4b91backed Yes4c3,314$148 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$147.759217.4%16 W · 76 L-2.4wins-0.03per pick20cpaid-5.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x4636…1052backed No70c3,293$2,315 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$977.82862.5%5 W · 3 L+0.7wins+0.09per pick54cpaid+0.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x66d7…5b7bbacked Yes40c3,265$1,319 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,318.91225%3 W · 9 L-1.1wins-0.09per pick34cpaid-40.2%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xe471…c87cbacked Yes17c3,221$541 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$541.2223525.5%60 W · 175 L+4.0wins+0.02per pick24cpaid-5.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x81e1…7265backed Yes18c3,165$560 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$560.317035.7%25 W · 45 L+3.9wins+0.06per pick30cpaid-1.2%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x12bf…ddafbacked No66c3,143$2,087 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,055.5115626.9%42 W · 114 L-10.6wins-0.07per pick34cpaid-38%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0xe876…7346backed Yes6c3,142$200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$200366.7%2 W · 1 L+1.2wins+0.39per pick28cpaid+76.3%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x086d…fe29backed Yes3c3,131$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$100333.3%1 W · 2 L+0.7wins+0.24per pick9cpaid+96.1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x8b71…fb6fbacked Yes13c3,122$400 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$40030%0 W · 3 L-0.4wins-0.12per pick12cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x3922…971bbacked No59c3,120$1,830 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,289.78875%6 W · 2 L+1.6wins+0.20per pick55cpaid+32.5%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x7ea7…79acbacked Yes3c3,100$90 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$903345.5%15 W · 18 L-1.0wins-0.03per pick48cpaid+28%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Middle East and say nothing about this market.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.