TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

World Politics · resolved market

Will CDU win the most seats in the 2026 Rhineland-Palatinate parliamentary elections?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Yesof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
World Politicsevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
Polymarket published no figure
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$757,653

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $757,653 TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 710 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in World Politics is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in World Politics
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x7177…ddefbacked No42c62,598$26,164 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$26,164.024459.1%26 W · 18 L+6.3wins+0.14per pick45cpaid+29.1%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0xdc4c…dbd5backed Yes63c45,556$28,553 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$17,002.721353.8%7 W · 6 L+2.0wins+0.15per pick39cpaid+62.4%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xf2f6…5817backed Yes55c40,104$21,978 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$18,126.6725337.2%94 W · 159 L+8.0wins+0.03per pick34cpaid-3.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x56c9…afe7backed Yes63c20,672$13,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7,671.981942.1%8 W · 11 L0.0wins0.00per pick42cpaid-29.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x68c2…1711backed Yes58c20,359$11,718 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8,641.512133.1%40 W · 81 L+4.6wins+0.04per pick29cpaid-11.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x48c6…d483backed Yes58c13,304$7,690 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5,613.551241.7%5 W · 7 L+1.0wins+0.09per pick33cpaid-9.7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xcf19…6402backed Yes55c12,000$6,630 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5,369.99977.8%7 W · 2 L+2.0wins+0.23per pick55cpaid+45%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xe25b…0f1bbacked Yes57c10,734$6,113 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,620.455060%30 W · 20 L+5.8wins+0.12per pick48cpaid+131.1%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x7a14…d748backed Yes56c10,005$5,603 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,401.899053.3%48 W · 42 L+10.7wins+0.12per pick41cpaid+25.2%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0xfffa…864bbacked Yes73c9,906$7,210 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,695.951291.7%11 W · 1 L+2.9wins+0.24per pick68cpaid+37.8%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x944e…8c94backed Yes58c9,391$5,448 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,943.4914240.8%58 W · 84 L+1.4wins+0.01per pick40cpaid-25.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xd64e…5516backed No36c9,285$3,343 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,342.763636.1%13 W · 23 L+1.4wins+0.04per pick32cpaid-43.5%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x6291…cc47backed No24c9,253$2,241 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,240.6328434.2%97 W · 187 L+5.2wins+0.02per pick32cpaid-8.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x844e…4efdbacked Yes68c8,270$5,609 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,661.022100%2 W · 0 L+0.6wins+0.32per pick68cpaid+48%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x15d4…6dddbacked No41c7,918$3,229 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,228.843336.4%12 W · 21 L-1.1wins-0.03per pick40cpaid-21.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x414b…0d3fbacked Yes58c6,000$3,476 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,524.9513334.6%46 W · 87 L+1.7wins+0.01per pick33cpaid+6.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x805a…0635backed No40c5,974$2,377 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,376.899037.8%34 W · 56 L+6.5wins+0.07per pick31cpaid+13.5%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0xdbad…9c95backed Yes53c5,000$2,650 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,3502060%12 W · 8 L+0.1wins+0.01per pick59cpaid-4.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5462…eed6backed No50c5,000$2,500 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,5001947.4%9 W · 10 L-0.6wins-0.03per pick51cpaid-21.1%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xd3a6…fd55backed No41c5,000$2,050 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,049.9410127.7%28 W · 73 L+2.6wins+0.03per pick25cpaid+7.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xa52f…8897backed Yes62c4,844$3,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,843.75933.3%3 W · 6 L-1.2wins-0.14per pick47cpaid+63.2%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xa8c6…44e8backed Yes61c4,748$2,909 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,838.3115230.3%46 W · 106 L-18.7wins-0.12per pick43cpaid-30.4%equal weight38-0.11 edge/pick
0xf42f…a6a7backed Yes60c4,036$2,406 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,629.8319742.6%84 W · 113 L+7.3wins+0.04per pick39cpaid-5.7%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x614d…1546backed Yes60c4,000$2,400 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,6008047.5%38 W · 42 L+2.2wins+0.03per pick45cpaid-7.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x9d73…494bbacked Yes63c3,067$1,932 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,134.682100%2 W · 0 L+0.7wins+0.36per pick64cpaid+56.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x4be5…c1b3backed Yes60c3,000$1,794 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,205.857828.2%22 W · 56 L-3.7wins-0.05per pick33cpaid+1.9%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x8929…733ebacked No34c2,775$937 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$936.575317%9 W · 44 L-2.3wins-0.04per pick21cpaid-64.3%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xf797…0bf2backed Yes62c2,748$1,700 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,047.399627.1%26 W · 70 L-7.0wins-0.07per pick34cpaid-29.3%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0xbad2…5296backed Yes57c2,730$1,565 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,165.0911741%48 W · 69 L+4.9wins+0.04per pick37cpaid-24.6%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x93a0…74debacked No43c2,618$1,122 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,121.51450%2 W · 2 L+0.2wins+0.06per pick44cpaid+55.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x03be…f6d9backed Yes72c2,607$1,878 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$729.64250%1 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.15per pick65cpaid-30.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe5a6…0a76backed No49c2,600$1,274 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,2743525.7%9 W · 26 L+2.0wins+0.06per pick20cpaid-32.9%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xc8ab…6418backed Yes59c2,600$1,544 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,055.9954934.6%190 W · 359 L-37.0wins-0.07per pick41cpaid-27.6%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x8bb6…735cbacked Yes55c2,592$1,434 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,157.86825%2 W · 6 L-0.9wins-0.11per pick36cpaid-59.2%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x4959…a6f5backed No34c2,588$887 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$887.4632255%177 W · 145 L+14.3wins+0.04per pick51cpaid-5%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x098e…f289backed Yes64c2,466$1,577 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$889.47742.9%3 W · 4 L+0.7wins+0.09per pick33cpaid-21.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x43f2…09a5backed Yes58c2,416$1,403 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,012.82862.5%5 W · 3 L+0.4wins+0.05per pick58cpaid-2.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x54b5…4b31backed Yes60c2,405$1,446 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$959.0314834.5%51 W · 97 L-3.8wins-0.03per pick37cpaid-21.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x9e88…301cbacked Yes59c2,266$1,341 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$925.148321.7%18 W · 65 L+1.5wins+0.02per pick20cpaid-50.4%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x8190…b247backed Yes68c2,199$1,489 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$709.92138.1%8 W · 13 L-4.3wins-0.20per pick59cpaid-43.9%equal weight40-0.09 edge/pick
0xca6e…73e8backed No42c2,154$899 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$899.2960%0 W · 6 L-2.9wins-0.48per pick48cpaid-100%equal weight40-0.09 edge/pick
0x6bb5…a518backed Yes58c2,058$1,204 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$853.943534.3%12 W · 23 L-0.3wins-0.01per pick35cpaid-39.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa382…d138backed No47c2,000$940 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$940757.1%4 W · 3 L-0.1wins-0.02per pick59cpaid-9.9%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0x6828…1056backed Yes62c2,000$1,245 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$754.9924736.8%91 W · 156 L+2.6wins+0.01per pick36cpaid-8.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xefac…c9a1backed Yes61c1,964$1,198 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$766.6317037.6%64 W · 106 L+5.2wins+0.03per pick35cpaid-11.7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xf1ad…6979backed Yes58c1,839$1,069 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$769.93030%9 W · 21 L-3.3wins-0.11per pick41cpaid-52.2%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x21a1…2f95backed Yes58c1,800$1,046 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$754771.4%5 W · 2 L+1.7wins+0.24per pick47cpaid+884.6%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x40cf…d21dbacked No44c1,798$788 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$787.8415932.7%52 W · 107 L-1.2wins-0.01per pick33cpaid+102.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x9aeb…2729backed Yes60c1,735$1,045 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$690.335145.1%23 W · 28 L+0.6wins+0.01per pick44cpaid-19%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xf1f9…1245backed No43c1,663$714 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$713.8118036.7%66 W · 114 L-0.5wins0.00per pick37cpaid+15.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xcaf9…a105backed Yes62c1,641$1,013 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$628.32366.7%2 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick66cpaid+11.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2200…0f2dbacked Yes45c1,536$689 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$846.284928.6%14 W · 35 L+2.6wins+0.05per pick23cpaid-19.2%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x4867…a6f8backed Yes65c1,536$1,003 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$532.951553.3%8 W · 7 L+0.7wins+0.05per pick49cpaid-16.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x5a21…9318backed Yes62c1,469$905 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$563.152850.8%268 W · 260 L+20.9wins+0.04per pick47cpaid-11.1%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xe132…ca8dbacked Yes63c1,400$882 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5182100%2 W · 0 L+0.6wins+0.29per pick71cpaid+42.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xcf95…7865backed Yes57c1,336$765 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$570.5434726.8%93 W · 254 L-12.3wins-0.04per pick30cpaid-31.3%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xc617…b4a8backed No45c1,333$600 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$600333.3%1 W · 2 L+0.2wins+0.06per pick27cpaid+565.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x92e5…efeebacked Yes56c1,333$749 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$584.262955.2%16 W · 13 L+3.6wins+0.12per pick43cpaid+36.2%equal weight57+0.07 edge/pick
0x173a…eb85backed No48c1,320$631 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$630.592657.7%15 W · 11 L+0.9wins+0.03per pick54cpaid-5.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xcd6b…68f5backed Yes59c1,316$771 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$544.826328.6%18 W · 45 L+1.5wins+0.02per pick26cpaid+14.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x7809…196abacked Yes70c1,302$910 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$392.531540%6 W · 9 L+0.6wins+0.04per pick36cpaid-9.1%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x8c57…f939backed Yes60c1,250$754 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$496.51136.4%4 W · 7 L-2.5wins-0.23per pick59cpaid-47.6%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x9c2c…dc30backed Yes69c1,210$829 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$380.583441.2%14 W · 20 L-2.2wins-0.07per pick48cpaid-23.9%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x9592…a85bbacked Yes66c1,200$792 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$40811428.9%33 W · 81 L+1.9wins+0.02per pick27cpaid+70.2%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x919d…60e1backed Yes60c1,196$715 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$481.632544%11 W · 14 L+0.5wins+0.02per pick42cpaid-27.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x1438…6100backed Yes61c1,194$731 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$463.05450%2 W · 2 L0.0wins+0.01per pick49cpaid-15.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5d1c…4d4dbacked Yes71c1,108$784 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$323.625750.9%29 W · 28 L-0.9wins-0.02per pick52cpaid-16.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xc2df…17b6backed Yes61c1,098$670 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$428.23250%1 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.17per pick67cpaid-18%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xbdf4…59b4backed No39c1,074$417 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$416.787443.2%32 W · 42 L-2.4wins-0.03per pick46cpaid-29%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x076c…4e7bbacked No42c1,068$445 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$444.9336742.5%156 W · 211 L-2.2wins-0.01per pick43cpaid-16.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x92f3…c02abacked Yes59c1,067$624 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$442.19450%2 W · 2 L-0.4wins-0.09per pick59cpaid-17%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xb52f…954fbacked Yes64c1,043$664 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$379.31030%3 W · 7 L-0.3wins-0.03per pick33cpaid-23.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x62ba…569bbacked Yes56c1,010$564 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$446.11323.1%3 W · 10 L+0.6wins+0.04per pick19cpaid-42.1%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x01da…ea89backed No28c1,000$280 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$280.022133.3%7 W · 14 L-0.2wins-0.01per pick34cpaid-4.9%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0xa8af…325ebacked Yes62c1,000$620 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3802748.1%13 W · 14 L+1.4wins+0.05per pick43cpaid-18%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x98d0…f14abacked Yes72c1,000$720 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$28014947.7%71 W · 78 L+6.9wins+0.05per pick43cpaid-6.5%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xfbff…5830backed Yes59c1,000$590 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4101376.9%10 W · 3 L+2.2wins+0.17per pick60cpaid+29.5%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x629c…6c01backed No43c1,000$430 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4302326.1%6 W · 17 L-0.8wins-0.03per pick29cpaid+21.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xa82b…5220backed Yes63c1,000$630 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3708035%28 W · 52 L-5.6wins-0.07per pick42cpaid-31.3%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xaaf4…62c7backed No43c980$421 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$421.4520%0 W · 2 L-0.9wins-0.43per pick43cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x3d35…23c1backed Yes53c958.61$505 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$453.551593.3%14 W · 1 L+4.7wins+0.31per pick62cpaid+53.8%equal weight63+0.12 edge/pick
0x9cb9…7b80backed Yes59c945.06$562 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$383.459348.4%45 W · 48 L+8.1wins+0.09per pick40cpaid+29.6%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x0ec4…f4a4backed Yes55c943.39$519 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$424.293246.9%15 W · 17 L-2.8wins-0.09per pick55cpaid-15.8%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xa6f7…8545backed Yes59c941.88$556 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$386.17862.5%5 W · 3 L-0.1wins-0.02per pick64cpaid-2.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd5b9…e44ebacked Yes64c928.2$592 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$336.26741.8%28 W · 39 L0.0wins0.00per pick42cpaid-11.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x77b5…9170backed No33c915.36$302 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$301.726052.3%136 W · 124 L+2.8wins+0.01per pick51cpaid-7.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xc2a7…7916backed No41c912$370 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$370.22650%3 W · 3 L-0.1wins-0.02per pick52cpaid-30.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf27d…e6d3backed No25c867.32$219 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$218.915121.6%11 W · 40 L+0.6wins+0.01per pick20cpaid-37.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x31c5…ede4backed No42c855.64$363 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$362.761533.3%5 W · 10 L-1.0wins-0.06per pick40cpaid-49.9%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x0650…6875backed Yes65c852.36$556 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$295.97450%2 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.01per pick51cpaid-17.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc8fd…6b3abacked Yes63c839$532 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$307.343745.9%17 W · 20 L+3.8wins+0.10per pick36cpaid+24.8%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x1361…8de1backed Yes65c820.42$533 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$287.891637.5%6 W · 10 L-0.5wins-0.03per pick40cpaid-48.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2106…4deabacked No23c815.73$190 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$189.834431.8%14 W · 30 L+1.3wins+0.03per pick29cpaid+2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x2bb8…1371backed No39c741.86$287 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$287.2250%0 W · 5 L-2.1wins-0.42per pick42cpaid-100%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x401e…6fc9backed Yes41c731.05$303 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$428.151872.2%13 W · 5 L+4.3wins+0.24per pick48cpaid+66.9%equal weight61+0.10 edge/pick
0x80fd…2e38backed Yes56c727.17$405 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$322.28333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.6wins-0.19per pick52cpaid-40.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x9f08…73a8backed Yes63c714.06$450 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$264.081080%8 W · 2 L+3.2wins+0.32per pick48cpaid+72.1%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0x20ad…a7c6backed No43c712.7$307 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$307540%2 W · 3 L-0.4wins-0.09per pick49cpaid-23.8%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xd6ee…37a2backed No42c707.75$296 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$295.8918246.2%84 W · 98 L+1.2wins+0.01per pick45cpaid-9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x0ab1…7df3backed Yes63c700$441 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2591250%6 W · 6 L-1.7wins-0.14per pick64cpaid-21.4%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in World Politics and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.