World Politics · resolved market
Will AfD win the most seats in the 2026 Rhineland-Palatinate parliamentary elections?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x98737df66d3a7aceb83e22aca51672a56fda0f8d5677578d193fd6d4ce6bcaa2
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- World Politicsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- Polymarket published no figure
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $337,107
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $337,107 — TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 62 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in World Politics is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in World Politics | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xcb31…6b02backed Yes | 0c | 53,070$106 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$106.14 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa40d…ea7abacked Yes | 3c | 42,038$1,104 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,103.77 | 40 | 7.5%3 W · 37 L | -4.1wins | -0.10per pick | 18cpaid | -80.1%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2d44…9b1fbacked Yes | 1c | 25,627$290 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$289.91 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xee67…67a6backed Yes | 0c | 12,409$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.41 | 169 | 1.8%3 W · 166 L | +0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 1cpaid | -52.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe9a2…27a0backed Yes | 1c | 11,981$110 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$110 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -0.8wins | -0.15per pick | 15cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9163…82aebacked Yes | 1c | 11,800$67 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66.54 | 227 | 25.1%57 W · 170 L | +0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 25cpaid | -28.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8929…733ebacked Yes | 1c | 11,380$91 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$90.7 | 53 | 17%9 W · 44 L | -2.3wins | -0.04per pick | 21cpaid | -64.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x907d…20c4backed Yes | 0c | 10,504$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.17 | 41 | 0%0 W · 41 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4be5…c1b3backed Yes | 1c | 10,200$123 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$122.6 | 78 | 28.2%22 W · 56 L | -3.7wins | -0.05per pick | 33cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd245…2318backed Yes | 0c | 8,315$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.27 | 32 | 25%8 W · 24 L | +2.6wins | +0.08per pick | 17cpaid | +43.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf27d…e6d3backed Yes | 6c | 8,192$505 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$504.87 | 51 | 21.6%11 W · 40 L | +0.6wins | +0.01per pick | 20cpaid | -37.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x315b…119abacked Yes | 1c | 8,049$72 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$72 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf5e4…471abacked Yes | 0c | 6,754$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.05 | 150 | 22.7%34 W · 116 L | +8.6wins | +0.06per pick | 17cpaid | +43%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8d97…fbd8backed Yes | 0c | 5,800$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.9 | 113 | 1.8%2 W · 111 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 1cpaid | +96.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf2f6…5817backed Yes | 1c | 5,498$72 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$72.06 | 253 | 37.2%94 W · 159 L | +8.0wins | +0.03per pick | 34cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb831…892bbacked Yes | 1c | 5,050$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75.03 | 8 | 12.5%1 W · 7 L | -0.7wins | -0.09per pick | 21cpaid | -80.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x629c…6c01backed Yes | 1c | 5,000$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.63 | 23 | 26.1%6 W · 17 L | -0.8wins | -0.03per pick | 29cpaid | +21.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5795…30fabacked Yes | 1c | 4,326$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.5 | 33 | 18.2%6 W · 27 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 18cpaid | -53.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc3c5…66e8backed Yes | 1c | 4,243$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | +0.3wins | +0.07per pick | 18cpaid | -62.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb138…36abbacked Yes | 1c | 4,163$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.5 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.4wins | +0.12per pick | 21cpaid | -45.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xec38…d50dbacked Yes | 1c | 4,144$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.5 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | +0.1wins | +0.04per pick | 21cpaid | -67.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe316…1766backed Yes | 1c | 4,066$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33 | 9 | 11.1%1 W · 8 L | +0.5wins | +0.06per pick | 5cpaid | -18.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xefde…783dbacked Yes | 12c | 3,643$435 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$435.32 | 110 | 39.1%43 W · 67 L | +3.4wins | +0.03per pick | 36cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3332…89b6backed Yes | 1c | 3,541$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.5 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | +0.5wins | +0.12per pick | 13cpaid | -46.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3a86…dea8backed Yes | 10c | 3,333$333 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$333.3 | 482 | 24.7%119 W · 363 L | -7.6wins | -0.02per pick | 26cpaid | -25.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x149b…d435backed Yes | 1c | 3,244$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xca8f…d963backed Yes | 1c | 2,833$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.01 | 234 | 4.3%10 W · 224 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 4cpaid | -29.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1e66…41e7backed Yes | 0c | 2,580$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.54 | 35 | 0%0 W · 35 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x59fa…80a1backed Yes | 1c | 2,490$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1963…5beabacked Yes | 10c | 2,122$217 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$217.25 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | +1.9wins | +0.21per pick | 24cpaid | +87.4%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 2c | 1,947$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.07 | 1,431 | 10.1%145 W · 1,286 L | -4.9wins | 0.00per pick | 10cpaid | -12.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed Yes | 1c | 1,936$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.53 | 528 | 50.8%268 W · 260 L | +20.9wins | +0.04per pick | 47cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x54db…0174backed Yes | 1c | 1,893$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.38 | 196 | 23%45 W · 151 L | +6.4wins | +0.03per pick | 20cpaid | -24.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x21a3…3a8dbacked Yes | 1c | 1,814$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x38a4…4ef2backed Yes | 2c | 1,719$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.7 | 37 | 10.8%4 W · 33 L | +1.1wins | +0.03per pick | 8cpaid | +67.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xae43…8194backed Yes | 8c | 1,615$127 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$126.73 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | +0.4wins | +0.05per pick | 20cpaid | -53%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x904b…7563backed Yes | 1c | 1,577$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.04 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7ac8…77cdbacked Yes | 3c | 1,209$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.88 | 302 | 33.8%102 W · 200 L | +19.2wins | +0.06per pick | 27cpaid | +27.6%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x7e8b…4a30backed Yes | 1c | 1,003$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x529d…6381backed Yes | 3c | 915.3$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.6 | 30 | 46.7%14 W · 16 L | +2.5wins | +0.08per pick | 38cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x24a5…b68dbacked Yes | 7c | 898.27$67 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$67 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xec82…6eaabacked Yes | 4c | 834.58$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.21 | 254 | 3.5%9 W · 245 L | -4.3wins | -0.02per pick | 5cpaid | -50.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfbf2…887dbacked Yes | 3c | 761.61$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.31 | 80 | 3.8%3 W · 77 L | -0.7wins | -0.01per pick | 5cpaid | -22.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe061…93f9backed Yes | 5c | 675.27$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.7 | 115 | 2.6%3 W · 112 L | -2.6wins | -0.02per pick | 5cpaid | -47%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6814…4d2dbacked Yes | 6c | 600$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.5 | 77 | 2.6%2 W · 75 L | -1.7wins | -0.02per pick | 5cpaid | -64.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3c69…4622backed Yes | 2c | 567.05$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.65 | 12 | 50%6 W · 6 L | +1.8wins | +0.15per pick | 35cpaid | +110.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1d0d…9b6ebacked Yes | 7c | 503.49$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.24 | 94 | 18.1%17 W · 77 L | +4.4wins | +0.05per pick | 13cpaid | +40.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2ef0…1f36backed Yes | 3c | 490.83$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.73 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1e98…6345backed Yes | 6c | 474.62$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.49 | 211 | 7.1%15 W · 196 L | +4.2wins | +0.02per pick | 5cpaid | +13.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5081…a309backed Yes | 4c | 438.74$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.27 | 80 | 6.3%5 W · 75 L | +1.1wins | +0.01per pick | 5cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7844…8c8dbacked Yes | 2c | 400.4$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb57d…6839backed Yes | 5c | 329.76$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.5wins | -0.17per pick | 17cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1fc9…ace5backed Yes | 4c | 314.36$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.35 | 476 | 6.5%31 W · 445 L | -8.9wins | -0.02per pick | 8cpaid | -19.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6df2…4da4backed Yes | 15c | 200$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.8wins | -0.40per pick | 40cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9dc2…0727backed Yes | 10c | 181.87$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.19 | 45 | 8.9%4 W · 41 L | +1.6wins | +0.04per pick | 5cpaid | +22.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd493…7f04backed Yes | 10c | 100$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 63 | 11.1%7 W · 56 L | +3.4wins | +0.05per pick | 6cpaid | +117.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1e7b…d81fbacked Yes | 10c | 100$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6044…d096backed Yes | 15c | 100$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.7 | 13 | 15.4%2 W · 11 L | +0.3wins | +0.03per pick | 13cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa8ae…8eb7backed Yes | 11c | 99.99$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.28per pick | 28cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x06ac…0df2backed Yes | 17c | 88.24$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.17per pick | 17cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6149…8a58backed Yes | 16c | 67.29$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.77 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.2wins | -0.05per pick | 30cpaid | -64.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe3a6…8297backed Yes | 20c | 50$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 21 | 28.6%6 W · 15 L | -2.6wins | -0.12per pick | 41cpaid | -51.5%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in World Politics and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will AfD win the most seats in the 2026 Rhineland-Palatinate parliamentary elections?this page
- Will BSW win the most seats in the 2026 Rhineland-Palatinate parliamentary elections?No won
- Will CDU win the most seats in the 2026 Rhineland-Palatinate parliamentary elections?Yes won
- Will FDP win the most seats in the 2026 Rhineland-Palatinate parliamentary elections?No won
- Will FW win the most seats in the 2026 Rhineland-Palatinate parliamentary elections?No won
- Will Grüne win the most seats in the 2026 Rhineland-Palatinate parliamentary elections?No won
- Will Linke win the most seats in the 2026 Rhineland-Palatinate parliamentary elections?No won
- Will SPD win the most seats in the 2026 Rhineland-Palatinate parliamentary elections?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.