Us Politics · resolved market
Israel military action against Iran in July?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x30be2fc500027e98ff6995bf1f197484e925674f5ebb69bea4a8ee37db504bd7
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Us Politicsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $1,469,124
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $1,482,259
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $1,469,124 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 894 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Us Politics is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Us Politics | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xc449…2b31backed Yes | 1c | 90,276$818 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$817.75 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7e7a…565dbacked Yes | 5c | 41,352$2,221 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,220.86 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | +0.2wins | +0.04per pick | 11cpaid | -20.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x614d…1546backed No | 71c | 32,987$23,310 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9,676.98 | 84 | 53.6%45 W · 39 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfcc0…4353backed Yes | 56c | 26,686$15,034 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15,034.47 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | +104.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x62cf…5826backed Yes | 66c | 26,623$17,604 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17,604.18 | 15 | 53.3%8 W · 7 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7c3d…5c6bbacked No | 63c | 22,698$14,205 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8,493.26 | 412 | 38.8%160 W · 252 L | +11.6wins | +0.03per pick | 36cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9194…c7a0backed Yes | 18c | 20,606$3,700 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,700 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | +0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -36.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0d05…6a81backed Yes | 3c | 19,815$589 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$589.28 | 36 | 8.3%3 W · 33 L | -1.2wins | -0.03per pick | 12cpaid | -82.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc851…cd2abacked No | 49c | 17,801$8,718 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9,082.9 | 45 | 42.2%19 W · 26 L | +0.9wins | +0.02per pick | 40cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x52f5…19dabacked No | 43c | 17,611$7,529 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10,082.54 | 29 | 27.6%8 W · 21 L | -1.2wins | -0.04per pick | 32cpaid | -14.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x82b1…7579backed No | 35c | 17,245$6,034 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11,210.98 | 12 | 66.7%8 W · 4 L | +1.2wins | +0.10per pick | 57cpaid | +19.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6d9f…9790backed No | 42c | 16,557$7,006 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9,550.43 | 52 | 40.4%21 W · 31 L | -0.9wins | -0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -22.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9622…01efbacked No | 67c | 15,862$10,603 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5,259.02 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.4wins | -0.08per pick | 48cpaid | -40.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2032…d577backed No | 61c | 15,836$9,687 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6,148.3 | 151 | 55%83 W · 68 L | +3.2wins | +0.02per pick | 53cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcffb…a6bebacked No | 39c | 15,554$6,068 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9,486.45 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.9wins | +0.22per pick | 53cpaid | +60.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xeb7f…1db2backed Yes | 33c | 14,876$4,850 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,850 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.0wins | -0.51per pick | 51cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5028…91c5backed Yes | 21c | 13,772$2,898 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,897.83 | 19 | 5.3%1 W · 18 L | -1.5wins | -0.08per pick | 13cpaid | -93.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x06d0…254fbacked Yes | 19c | 13,469$2,600 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,600 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.9wins | -0.29per pick | 29cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x704a…7c42backed Yes | 36c | 12,669$4,515 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,515.04 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.36per pick | 36cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa7fa…16cbbacked No | 70c | 12,541$8,820 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,720.77 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | -1.1wins | -0.11per pick | 61cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4fad…1480backed Yes | 1c | 11,713$133 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$132.58 | 398 | 9.5%38 W · 360 L | -5.1wins | -0.01per pick | 11cpaid | -62.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc023…ccf8backed Yes | 30c | 10,933$3,333 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,333.41 | 25 | 20%5 W · 20 L | -0.9wins | -0.04per pick | 24cpaid | +10.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x460a…d738backed Yes | 40c | 9,474$3,769 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,769.27 | 41 | 63.4%26 W · 15 L | +7.8wins | +0.19per pick | 44cpaid | +57.5%equal weight | 63+0.12 edge/pick |
| 0x3275…2e5abacked No | 74c | 9,205$6,767 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,438.02 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | -32%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf9fa…f4acbacked Yes | 58c | 8,869$5,165 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$5,165.3 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.58per pick | 58cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5c39…aaabbacked Yes | 2c | 8,717$189 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$189.26 | 9 | 11.1%1 W · 8 L | -0.2wins | -0.03per pick | 14cpaid | +84.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7a36…bd73backed Yes | 31c | 7,975$2,473 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,472.61 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.1wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -22%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7853…36d8backed No | 73c | 7,727$5,669 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,057.3 | 375 | 33.3%125 W · 250 L | -17.1wins | -0.05per pick | 38cpaid | -24.5%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbaa2…2c73backed No | 35c | 6,807$2,401 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,406.05 | 42 | 59.5%25 W · 17 L | +4.6wins | +0.11per pick | 49cpaid | +28.1%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x4158…ce9fbacked No | 30c | 6,556$1,995 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,560.26 | 194 | 35.1%68 W · 126 L | +5.1wins | +0.03per pick | 32cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xecb1…5da3backed No | 76c | 6,481$4,955 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,525.63 | 81 | 34.6%28 W · 53 L | +3.1wins | +0.04per pick | 31cpaid | -9.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6b0e…e3eabacked Yes | 7c | 6,434$470 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$469.71 | 333 | 13.2%44 W · 289 L | +9.2wins | +0.03per pick | 10cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc1ea…6879backed Yes | 33c | 6,311$2,100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,100 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | +0.5wins | +0.09per pick | 24cpaid | +111.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xee3b…e73bbacked Yes | 32c | 6,092$1,939 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,939.24 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.5wins | -0.50per pick | 50cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1cfc…2111backed Yes | 57c | 5,783$3,281 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,281.28 | 996 | 29.5%294 W · 702 L | -73.3wins | -0.07per pick | 37cpaid | -37.8%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x5e9c…cd75backed Yes | 13c | 5,718$731 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$730.72 | 114 | 28.1%32 W · 82 L | +1.0wins | +0.01per pick | 27cpaid | -27.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd4c4…a970backed Yes | 18c | 5,691$1,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,000 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | +0.3wins | +0.07per pick | 18cpaid | +5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9758…536dbacked Yes | 18c | 5,657$1,039 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,039.15 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.6wins | -0.16per pick | 16cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x022e…2a77backed Yes | 43c | 5,561$2,374 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,374.14 | 95 | 49.5%47 W · 48 L | +9.2wins | +0.10per pick | 40cpaid | +21.3%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xe471…c87cbacked Yes | 28c | 5,548$1,540 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,540.23 | 17 | 35.3%6 W · 11 L | +2.3wins | +0.14per pick | 22cpaid | +73.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb07e…4cc4backed No | 78c | 5,543$4,306 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,236.73 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | -2.0wins | -0.28per pick | 43cpaid | -81.6%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x4c7b…19a4backed Yes | 9c | 5,423$466 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$465.94 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.7wins | +0.33per pick | 17cpaid | +98.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed No | 73c | 5,194$3,773 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,420.64 | 567 | 33.2%188 W · 379 L | -40.9wins | -0.07per pick | 40cpaid | -29.5%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x843a…8070backed Yes | 24c | 5,074$1,243 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,242.89 | 40 | 40%16 W · 24 L | +1.7wins | +0.04per pick | 36cpaid | -16.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6045…db96backed Yes | 20c | 5,031$1,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,000 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.3wins | -0.09per pick | 9cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc1be…d6a2backed No | 71c | 4,508$3,200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,307.3 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 67cpaid | -1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2c4d…96b9backed No | 24c | 4,347$1,031 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,316.14 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +1.7wins | +0.58per pick | 42cpaid | +172.7%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x4c2d…f8aebacked No | 30c | 4,339$1,282 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,056.18 | 26 | 19.2%5 W · 21 L | -1.9wins | -0.07per pick | 26cpaid | -61.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x43bb…020bbacked Yes | 65c | 4,333$2,796 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,795.87 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.65per pick | 65cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x54b5…4b31backed No | 69c | 4,150$2,857 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,292.91 | 101 | 45.5%46 W · 55 L | +4.1wins | +0.04per pick | 41cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc875…02bdbacked Yes | 23c | 4,073$918 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$917.86 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.7wins | -0.13per pick | 33cpaid | -66.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x75e7…9080backed No | 40c | 4,039$1,609 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,430.12 | 326 | 26.4%86 W · 240 L | -3.2wins | -0.01per pick | 27cpaid | -16.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc160…ce0abacked Yes | 34c | 3,871$1,321 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,321.26 | 30 | 26.7%8 W · 22 L | -3.2wins | -0.11per pick | 37cpaid | -30.3%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x59a5…afc8backed No | 72c | 3,859$2,784 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,074.72 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | -0.8wins | -0.08per pick | 58cpaid | -26%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x958d…3501backed No | 65c | 3,855$2,502 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,352.9 | 174 | 52.9%92 W · 82 L | -5.0wins | -0.03per pick | 56cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdaf5…661dbacked Yes | 40c | 3,814$1,540 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,540 | 10 | 0%0 W · 10 L | -2.0wins | -0.20per pick | 20cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x17e5…3d19backed No | 68c | 3,798$2,578 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,220.59 | 377 | 40.6%153 W · 224 L | -4.5wins | -0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x84fd…2f81backed No | 68c | 3,577$2,431 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,145.79 | 74 | 47.3%35 W · 39 L | -0.7wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +23.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa3d3…d424backed No | 43c | 3,511$1,517 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,993.25 | 77 | 40.3%31 W · 46 L | +3.0wins | +0.04per pick | 36cpaid | +20.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x09bb…f8b1backed No | 74c | 3,498$2,600 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$898.24 | 20 | 50%10 W · 10 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x39d0…4fe8backed No | 66c | 3,352$2,219 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,133.35 | 135 | 56.3%76 W · 59 L | +13.4wins | +0.10per pick | 46cpaid | +18.6%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x75a5…a5bfbacked Yes | 21c | 3,193$661 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$660.78 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -0.3wins | -0.04per pick | 33cpaid | -61.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3078…0389backed Yes | 27c | 3,175$848 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$848.38 | 441 | 11.3%50 W · 391 L | -44.5wins | -0.10per pick | 21cpaid | -52.5%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x24c8…23e1backed No | 74c | 3,162$2,349 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$813.26 | 151 | 24.5%37 W · 114 L | -3.7wins | -0.02per pick | 27cpaid | -42%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x28de…a1fdbacked No | 33c | 3,119$1,028 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,091.6 | 32 | 21.9%7 W · 25 L | +0.5wins | +0.02per pick | 20cpaid | -18.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x526e…3bd0backed Yes | 64c | 3,099$1,970 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,970.06 | 20 | 65%13 W · 7 L | +1.6wins | +0.08per pick | 57cpaid | +6.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7cc9…b8a8backed No | 41c | 3,039$1,251 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,787.99 | 43 | 23.3%10 W · 33 L | -2.1wins | -0.05per pick | 28cpaid | -23.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x867d…3f3bbacked Yes | 33c | 3,028$998 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$998.45 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 29cpaid | -42.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7bb2…682cbacked No | 32c | 3,000$970 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,029.99 | 57 | 56.1%32 W · 25 L | +4.9wins | +0.09per pick | 48cpaid | +35.8%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x490e…9d7cbacked Yes | 21c | 3,000$630 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$629.98 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | +1.0wins | +0.17per pick | 16cpaid | +378.5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0441…194cbacked Yes | 30c | 2,947$883 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$883.48 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +2.0wins | +0.34per pick | 33cpaid | +331%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x04d1…a4fbbacked Yes | 35c | 2,872$1,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,000 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.35per pick | 35cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb1fe…423abacked Yes | 58c | 2,792$1,633 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,632.63 | 141 | 25.5%36 W · 105 L | +0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 25cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x268b…024fbacked Yes | 23c | 2,709$623 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$623.13 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -1.0wins | -0.16per pick | 33cpaid | -63%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x06ec…f845backed No | 22c | 2,660$589 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,071.46 | 219 | 35.2%77 W · 142 L | +8.8wins | +0.04per pick | 31cpaid | +9.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x12bf…ddafbacked Yes | 56c | 2,651$1,495 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,495.25 | 48 | 18.8%9 W · 39 L | -1.5wins | -0.03per pick | 22cpaid | -29.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd063…5ccdbacked No | 74c | 2,633$1,948 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$685.14 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +1.0wins | +0.19per pick | 61cpaid | +25.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd46b…5dabbacked No | 75c | 2,582$1,929 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$653.33 | 29 | 41.4%12 W · 17 L | -2.5wins | -0.09per pick | 50cpaid | -36.1%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7a14…d748backed No | 69c | 2,546$1,765 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$781.63 | 103 | 47.6%49 W · 54 L | +1.6wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2618…0a87backed No | 37c | 2,543$932 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,611.85 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +1.2wins | +0.61per pick | 39cpaid | +156%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6734…fd07backed Yes | 16c | 2,500$406 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$406 | 8 | 0%0 W · 8 L | -0.9wins | -0.11per pick | 11cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4fb1…3b2dbacked Yes | 28c | 2,460$697 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$697.49 | 35 | 37.1%13 W · 22 L | +7.8wins | +0.22per pick | 15cpaid | +177.1%equal weight | 64+0.13 edge/pick |
| 0x067f…e041backed No | 15c | 2,425$364 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,060.83 | 26 | 57.7%15 W · 11 L | +4.0wins | +0.15per pick | 42cpaid | +30.4%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x70a2…4773backed Yes | 53c | 2,418$1,282 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,282.49 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.53per pick | 53cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa4b3…87b8backed No | 77c | 2,403$1,862 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$540.82 | 24 | 25%6 W · 18 L | -1.0wins | -0.04per pick | 29cpaid | -60.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x922f…69d4backed No | 33c | 2,340$775 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,564.62 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +0.3wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | +17.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8a4c…532bbacked No | 75c | 2,331$1,744 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$587.66 | 20 | 40%8 W · 12 L | +2.2wins | +0.11per pick | 29cpaid | +12.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x68c2…1711backed No | 51c | 2,308$1,181 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,127.83 | 378 | 44.4%168 W · 210 L | +33.3wins | +0.09per pick | 36cpaid | +64.3%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xf904…85ecbacked Yes | 13c | 2,302$293 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$292.95 | 13 | 53.8%7 W · 6 L | +1.5wins | +0.12per pick | 42cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x36fd…c834backed Yes | 66c | 2,291$1,508 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,507.66 | 20 | 20%4 W · 16 L | -3.8wins | -0.19per pick | 39cpaid | -51.2%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x3069…f8efbacked Yes | 56c | 2,255$1,260 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,259.85 | 63 | 54%34 W · 29 L | -2.4wins | -0.04per pick | 58cpaid | -13.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa510…1f80backed Yes | 13c | 2,244$291 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$291.27 | 10 | 20%2 W · 8 L | +0.2wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | -61.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa9bd…b3ddbacked Yes | 18c | 2,170$392 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$392.4 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | +1.3wins | +0.16per pick | 34cpaid | +6.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x635d…5025backed Yes | 26c | 2,126$551 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$551.48 | 63 | 49.2%31 W · 32 L | +4.1wins | +0.07per pick | 43cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1cac…0a0fbacked Yes | 9c | 2,102$179 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$179 | 32 | 25%8 W · 24 L | +1.8wins | +0.06per pick | 19cpaid | +10.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0fda…5b87backed Yes | 62c | 2,100$1,310 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,310.42 | 12 | 58.3%7 W · 5 L | +0.8wins | +0.07per pick | 52cpaid | +80.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4167…8bf7backed Yes | 24c | 2,061$504 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$504.2 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.17per pick | 17cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf9b7…60a4backed Yes | 16c | 2,051$328 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$328.14 | 44 | 36.4%16 W · 28 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 37cpaid | +5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8fe7…4f20backed No | 76c | 2,050$1,563 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$486.92 | 39 | 23.1%9 W · 30 L | -1.1wins | -0.03per pick | 26cpaid | -42.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0370…d000backed Yes | 31c | 2,026$628 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$628.09 | 22 | 63.6%14 W · 8 L | +2.0wins | +0.09per pick | 55cpaid | +7.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Us Politics and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.