Other European Leagues · resolved market
Will FC Arouca vs. Sport Lisboa e Benfica end in a draw?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xe6582531ff42991d6474dbb050712ceecd3504a8b02b5b73ab38f76e3fd2f179
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Other European Leaguesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- Polymarket published no figure
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $101,195
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $101,195 — TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 74 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Other European Leagues is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Other European Leagues | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x49ca…5944backed Yes | 0c | 20,000$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 113 | 59.3%67 W · 46 L | +1.3wins | +0.01per pick | 58cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc2fb…b9f0backed No | 61c | 14,284$8,662 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5,621.56 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | -0.2wins | -0.03per pick | 60cpaid | -16.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4133…5e70backed No | 60c | 10,737$6,491 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,245.68 | 2,130 | 45.8%975 W · 1,155 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd6a3…9489backed Yes | 41c | 7,077$2,907 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,906.56 | 834 | 40.8%340 W · 494 L | -35.3wins | -0.04per pick | 45cpaid | -15.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Yes | 43c | 3,904$1,670 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,670.32 | 7,889 | 45.4%3,579 W · 4,310 L | +11.2wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | -9.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd218…b5c9backed Yes | 37c | 3,900$1,434 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,434 | 715 | 33.8%242 W · 473 L | -12.1wins | -0.02per pick | 36cpaid | -28.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x30e9…390ebacked Yes | 76c | 2,000$1,520 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,520 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -1.3wins | -0.32per pick | 57cpaid | -56.9%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Yes | 39c | 1,759$690 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$690.47 | 5,604 | 42%2,356 W · 3,248 L | +75.1wins | +0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbe3c…a835backed No | 40c | 1,000$400 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$600 | 269 | 49.8%134 W · 135 L | +5.8wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x49fa…f904backed Yes | 72c | 1,000$720 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$720 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -2.6wins | -0.43per pick | 43cpaid | -100%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x11a7…2c03backed Yes | 24c | 999.28$240 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$239.83 | 25 | 40%10 W · 15 L | -0.6wins | -0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked Yes | 44c | 874.55$381 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$380.78 | 2,179 | 48%1,046 W · 1,133 L | -26.7wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -12%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1430…a753backed Yes | 16c | 860$138 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$137.6 | 18 | 27.8%5 W · 13 L | +1.7wins | +0.10per pick | 18cpaid | +70%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2652…2a1dbacked No | 75c | 827.31$620 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$206.88 | 1,098 | 50.5%554 W · 544 L | -36.1wins | -0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -13.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x65ce…b90bbacked No | 30c | 790.22$233 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$556.86 | 19 | 36.8%7 W · 12 L | +2.0wins | +0.11per pick | 26cpaid | +17.7%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0632…d1b7backed Yes | 26c | 769.23$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 18 | 38.9%7 W · 11 L | -0.8wins | -0.04per pick | 43cpaid | -22.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7409…65a6backed Yes | 60c | 746.48$450 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$450 | 77 | 75.3%58 W · 19 L | +12.7wins | +0.16per pick | 59cpaid | +39.5%equal weight | 64+0.12 edge/pick |
| 0x8544…3d33backed Yes | 41c | 731.71$300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$300 | 44 | 61.4%27 W · 17 L | -2.9wins | -0.07per pick | 68cpaid | -11.9%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7418…251fbacked Yes | 66c | 679.29$450 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$450 | 62 | 72.6%45 W · 17 L | +7.6wins | +0.12per pick | 60cpaid | +35.9%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x7a49…d9f5backed Yes | 40c | 644.89$255 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$255.46 | 940 | 43.7%411 W · 529 L | -10.1wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -13.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5411…72c0backed Yes | 31c | 595.26$185 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$184.53 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.12per pick | 38cpaid | +8.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa9f5…937fbacked Yes | 32c | 457$147 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$147.49 | 381 | 47.5%181 W · 200 L | -5.2wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -13.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1e52…91d6backed No | 41c | 361.42$147 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$214.11 | 174 | 21.8%38 W · 136 L | -10.8wins | -0.06per pick | 28cpaid | -43.9%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x20ad…a7c6backed Yes | 28c | 344.54$98 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$97.65 | 223 | 33.2%74 W · 149 L | -1.5wins | -0.01per pick | 34cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfa01…f0a7backed Yes | 16c | 300$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48 | 199 | 54.3%108 W · 91 L | -4.5wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9cab…8228backed Yes | 4c | 289.69$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +1.9wins | +0.47per pick | 28cpaid | +113.4%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x1e98…110bbacked Yes | 47c | 224.36$106 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$106.17 | 24 | 37.5%9 W · 15 L | -1.1wins | -0.05per pick | 42cpaid | -25.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa6fe…7e71backed Yes | 54c | 224.18$120 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$120 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa6be…b977backed Yes | 47c | 208.19$98 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$97.85 | 108 | 46.3%50 W · 58 L | +3.6wins | +0.03per pick | 43cpaid | +11.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe8a0…92dfbacked Yes | 24c | 182.54$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.81 | 29 | 44.8%13 W · 16 L | +3.2wins | +0.11per pick | 34cpaid | +39.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xee02…8132backed Yes | 17c | 177.11$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.11 | 20 | 10%2 W · 18 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 11cpaid | +16.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfab4…564fbacked Yes | 65c | 172.6$112 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$112.19 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.9wins | +0.23per pick | 52cpaid | +64.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcb5b…f243backed No | 34c | 153.55$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$101.43 | 641 | 43.4%278 W · 363 L | +1.8wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -7.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0ab1…7df3backed Yes | 74c | 143.6$106 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$105.9 | 21 | 57.1%12 W · 9 L | -2.1wins | -0.10per pick | 67cpaid | -17%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc291…5d74backed Yes | 27c | 141.29$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.89 | 2,640 | 35.7%942 W · 1,698 L | -15.8wins | -0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x788a…bff2backed Yes | 24c | 125$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 17 | 47.1%8 W · 9 L | -2.4wins | -0.14per pick | 61cpaid | -32.8%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x3861…7313backed Yes | 47c | 121.22$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.32 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.14per pick | 36cpaid | +109.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4547…ac9bbacked Yes | 16c | 120$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.2 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.16per pick | 16cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc10a…46b5backed Yes | 58c | 119.99$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$69.79 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.58per pick | 58cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x45c1…4364backed Yes | 35c | 108.37$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.93 | 14 | 35.7%5 W · 9 L | -1.0wins | -0.07per pick | 43cpaid | -30.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8ce8…2f9ebacked Yes | 48c | 100.03$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48 | 62 | 24.2%15 W · 47 L | -10.6wins | -0.17per pick | 41cpaid | -58.1%equal weight | 36-0.12 edge/pick |
| 0xe647…c9aabacked No | 58c | 100$58 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.8wins | -0.16per pick | 36cpaid | -65.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xff34…bf20backed Yes | 31c | 96.77$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 12 | 41.7%5 W · 7 L | +1.6wins | +0.13per pick | 29cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf2ae…74c0backed Yes | 57c | 87.72$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 212 | 56.6%120 W · 92 L | -10.2wins | -0.05per pick | 61cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe24e…bf04backed No | 59c | 84.75$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.75 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 61cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf39a…fe47backed No | 63c | 84.69$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.34 | 673 | 48.1%324 W · 349 L | -22.1wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -12.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8dd8…9a1cbacked No | 70c | 70$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.82 | 90 | 42.2%38 W · 52 L | -4.6wins | -0.05per pick | 47cpaid | -18.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7b67…e889backed Yes | 20c | 65.24$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.99 | 42 | 35.7%15 W · 27 L | -2.7wins | -0.06per pick | 42cpaid | -16.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfefb…4b5dbacked Yes | 19c | 59.51$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.08 | 225 | 42.7%96 W · 129 L | +6.5wins | +0.03per pick | 40cpaid | -4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9c87…7f4abacked Yes | 46c | 58.08$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.98 | 10 | 60%6 W · 4 L | +0.3wins | +0.03per pick | 57cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x12e2…309ebacked Yes | 46c | 57.86$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.37 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe592…691abacked Yes | 61c | 55.46$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.72 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | -0.7wins | -0.07per pick | 57cpaid | -16.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x023d…23acbacked Yes | 35c | 53.54$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.74 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.1wins | -0.57per pick | 57cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa07d…a037backed No | 39c | 52.52$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.12 | 583 | 20.1%117 W · 466 L | -37.7wins | -0.06per pick | 27cpaid | -27.4%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa072…9e34backed No | 44c | 50$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28 | 94 | 38.3%36 W · 58 L | +1.7wins | +0.02per pick | 36cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc9d2…090fbacked No | 64c | 49.67$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.74 | 15 | 66.7%10 W · 5 L | +2.1wins | +0.14per pick | 53cpaid | +19.5%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3abf…b143backed Yes | 42c | 49.44$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.55 | 341 | 58.9%201 W · 140 L | +25.9wins | +0.08per pick | 51cpaid | +17.5%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xd2e5…c638backed Yes | 30c | 49.23$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 25 | 36%9 W · 16 L | -1.5wins | -0.06per pick | 42cpaid | -14.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x368c…e8d5backed Yes | 43c | 46.51$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -16.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1d94…9100backed No | 69c | 45.29$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.04 | 1,401 | 29.2%409 W · 992 L | -32.2wins | -0.02per pick | 31cpaid | -15.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd69e…3393backed Yes | 27c | 44.44$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 73 | 50.7%37 W · 36 L | -1.2wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4796…79fcbacked No | 38c | 42.66$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.28 | 19 | 52.6%10 W · 9 L | +0.6wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +4.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb226…4469backed Yes | 47c | 42.55$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 22 | 36.4%8 W · 14 L | -3.2wins | -0.14per pick | 51cpaid | -42.4%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x036c…e838backed Yes | 25c | 42.08$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.52 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | -2.9wins | -0.41per pick | 55cpaid | -81.4%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xe520…e4e3backed Yes | 49c | 40.94$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 12 | 58.3%7 W · 5 L | -0.6wins | -0.05per pick | 63cpaid | -2.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6711…8ed9backed Yes | 58c | 34.39$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.58per pick | 58cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6146…e07dbacked Yes | 60c | 33.42$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.3wins | -0.65per pick | 65cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xfc8f…3782backed Yes | 50c | 30$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.1 | 93 | 25.8%24 W · 69 L | -2.1wins | -0.02per pick | 28cpaid | -9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf3c3…710dbacked Yes | 75c | 26.67$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | -1.3wins | -0.21per pick | 71cpaid | -21.5%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x079c…a211backed No | 62c | 25.88$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.87 | 7 | 71.4%5 W · 2 L | +1.1wins | +0.15per pick | 56cpaid | +13.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7e2a…a58dbacked Yes | 44c | 25.61$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.27 | 20 | 55%11 W · 9 L | -1.3wins | -0.06per pick | 61cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x94fc…1fb8backed Yes | 64c | 20.96$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.5 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.64per pick | 64cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x70d4…e3b3backed Yes | 50c | 20$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.50per pick | 50cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x72ee…1e45backed Yes | 64c | 15.63$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.64per pick | 64cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Other European Leagues and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will FC Arouca vs. Sport Lisboa e Benfica end in a draw?this page
- Will FC Arouca win on 2026-03-14?No won
- Will Sport Lisboa e Benfica win on 2026-03-14?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.