Other European Leagues · resolved market
Will FC Arouca win on 2026-03-14?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x16617690460560f5cbf9074831ae93bdb9e1e505b6942314496edead9fe956b4
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Other European Leaguesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- Polymarket published no figure
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $62,333
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $62,333 — TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 37 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Other European Leagues is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Other European Leagues | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x4133…5e70backed Yes | 15c | 9,152$1,406 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,405.73 | 2,130 | 45.8%975 W · 1,155 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5dca…87d0backed Yes | 3c | 6,000$185 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$184.99 | 36 | 50%18 W · 18 L | +4.0wins | +0.11per pick | 39cpaid | +54.3%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xd6a3…9489backed No | 78c | 3,113$2,428 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$684.85 | 834 | 40.8%340 W · 494 L | -35.3wins | -0.04per pick | 45cpaid | -15.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x160b…4296backed Yes | 8c | 2,922$234 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$233.75 | 660 | 47.6%314 W · 346 L | +1.4wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | +3.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x274f…fbf4backed No | 76c | 1,572$1,202 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$370.04 | 43 | 79.1%34 W · 9 L | +3.5wins | +0.08per pick | 71cpaid | +10.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4948…ee9bbacked Yes | 15c | 1,169$173 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$173 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0687…77bfbacked Yes | 7c | 1,143$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80 | 8 | 12.5%1 W · 7 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 13cpaid | +13.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x11a7…2c03backed Yes | 18c | 1,000$179 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$178.5 | 25 | 40%10 W · 15 L | -0.6wins | -0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1d94…9100backed Yes | 10c | 969.92$101 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$101.36 | 1,401 | 29.2%409 W · 992 L | -32.2wins | -0.02per pick | 31cpaid | -15.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1e52…91d6backed Yes | 6c | 929.9$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.79 | 174 | 21.8%38 W · 136 L | -10.8wins | -0.06per pick | 28cpaid | -43.9%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc291…5d74backed Yes | 8c | 894.86$76 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$76.05 | 2,640 | 35.7%942 W · 1,698 L | -15.8wins | -0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1430…a753backed Yes | 9c | 860$77 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$77.4 | 18 | 27.8%5 W · 13 L | +1.7wins | +0.10per pick | 18cpaid | +70%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xee02…8132backed Yes | 5c | 599.98$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 20 | 10%2 W · 18 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 11cpaid | +16.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd0e7…b14fbacked Yes | 9c | 384$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.56 | 58 | 46.6%27 W · 31 L | +1.6wins | +0.03per pick | 44cpaid | +5.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7ea5…de7bbacked Yes | 8c | 345.88$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.38 | 2,334 | 46.8%1,093 W · 1,241 L | +14.5wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4868…c8d1backed Yes | 9c | 333.33$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | +0.2wins | +0.03per pick | 30cpaid | +9.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1038…fd48backed Yes | 41c | 281.25$116 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$116 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -2.2wins | -0.31per pick | 59cpaid | -54.6%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x8e40…7d1fbacked Yes | 6c | 250$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 52 | 23.1%12 W · 40 L | +1.2wins | +0.02per pick | 21cpaid | +53.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1e98…110bbacked Yes | 9c | 217.77$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.6 | 24 | 37.5%9 W · 15 L | -1.1wins | -0.05per pick | 42cpaid | -25.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7f02…12f5backed Yes | 7c | 214.29$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 80 | 55%44 W · 36 L | +6.8wins | +0.08per pick | 47cpaid | +32.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6713…6c16backed Yes | 25c | 200$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.25per pick | 25cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7ca9…26bcbacked Yes | 7c | 193.86$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.57 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.16per pick | 34cpaid | -18%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfdf4…40fabacked Yes | 11c | 187.91$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 167 | 50.9%85 W · 82 L | -9.5wins | -0.06per pick | 57cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb80a…1a43backed Yes | 8c | 187.5$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | +1.1wins | +0.12per pick | 33cpaid | +15.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2576…8b80backed Yes | 8c | 187.5$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xea9e…d3fbbacked Yes | 8c | 149.11$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.93 | 570 | 19.8%113 W · 457 L | -8.9wins | -0.02per pick | 21cpaid | -10.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x972b…78babacked Yes | 8c | 131.35$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.51 | 1,143 | 53.2%608 W · 535 L | +44.9wins | +0.04per pick | 49cpaid | +5.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa66f…f5a3backed Yes | 8c | 128.55$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.15 | 381 | 47.5%181 W · 200 L | +9.8wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x368c…e8d5backed Yes | 17c | 97.31$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.38 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -16.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x20ad…a7c6backed Yes | 20c | 96.01$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.61 | 223 | 33.2%74 W · 149 L | -1.5wins | -0.01per pick | 34cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaea0…0decbacked Yes | 28c | 61$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.38 | 58 | 65.5%38 W · 20 L | +6.0wins | +0.10per pick | 55cpaid | +11.3%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xb580…9b95backed Yes | 27c | 60$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.9 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | +0.9wins | +0.11per pick | 51cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1df5…1e18backed Yes | 23c | 58$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.47 | 86 | 43%37 W · 49 L | -2.2wins | -0.03per pick | 46cpaid | -16.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2f31…e2b6backed No | 75c | 50$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.5 | 111 | 63.1%70 W · 41 L | -1.8wins | -0.02per pick | 65cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0673…afabbacked Yes | 23c | 44$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.24 | 10 | 20%2 W · 8 L | -1.2wins | -0.12per pick | 32cpaid | -67.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9720…2c24backed No | 25c | 40$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.9 | 31 | 22.6%7 W · 24 L | -1.7wins | -0.05per pick | 28cpaid | -21.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfefb…4b5dbacked No | 77c | 19$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.37 | 225 | 42.7%96 W · 129 L | +6.5wins | +0.03per pick | 40cpaid | -4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Other European Leagues and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will FC Arouca win on 2026-03-14?this page
- Will FC Arouca vs. Sport Lisboa e Benfica end in a draw?No won
- Will Sport Lisboa e Benfica win on 2026-03-14?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.