TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Wallet 0x0673…afab

Rebuilt .

Summary

Qualified picks
95
Categories scored
15
Categories below 50
7

Best Category: Mls, grading 58 out of 100 (+0.07 per pick).

Best Category Mls at 58 out of 100; worst Asian League at 43.

What is a Tail Score?

A mark out of 100, per Category. 50 means no edge at all — this wallet did about what the prices it paid implied it would. Above 50 it beat those prices; below 50 it did worse than them.

The scale does not move. 100 is a wallet beating the prices it paid by 0.45 per pick and 0 is losing to them by the same, on every wallet, on every page, in every month. So a grade you screenshot today still means what it meant when you took it, and two wallets can be put side by side.

Nobody reaches either end. Across every wallet TailMyPicks has scored, the marks run from roughly 5 to 87 — which is what a fixed ruler costs, and what buys the sentence above.

It is not a win rate. A wallet can win four Picks in five and still grade below 50, if the market was already pricing those outcomes at 90c — it paid for the wins rather than finding them. The vs expected and Avg entry columns below are what separate the two.

The mark is deliberately pulled toward 50 when there is little evidence. Three lucky Picks do not produce a high grade; several hundred consistent ones do. So a modest grade on thousands of Picks means something a high grade on twelve does not.

Because it is shrunk this way, a Category grade is a conservative reading. The headline figure for a wallet is its best Category, so it always understates how badly the wallet does in its worst one — which is why the table below is per Category and not one blended number.

Record by Category

Ordered by how much this wallet actually traded in each Category, not by score — so the Categories it plays most appear first whether they went well or badly. Open any row to see the picks its numbers were computed from — all of them.

CategoryQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
South American Leagues Inactivelast resolved Mar 28, 2026, EDT1833.3%6 W · 12 L+1.3wins+0.07per pick26cpaid+13.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
South American Leagues — the 18 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in South American Leagues, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Gimnasia y Esgrima de La Plata win on 2026-03-20?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)6c$10Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 28, 2026, EDT-100%-$10.08
Will CA Tigre win on 2026-03-20?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)30c$10Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 21, 2026, EDT-100%-$10.2
Will EC Vitória win on 2026-03-19?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)17c$20Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 19, 2026, EDT-100%-$20.4
Will SC Internacional win on 2026-03-18?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)26c$10Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 19, 2026, EDT+292.2%+$29.8
Will Fluminense FC win on 2026-03-18?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)53c$11Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 19, 2026, EDT-100%-$10.52
Will CR Vasco da Gama win on 2026-03-18?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)18c$10Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 19, 2026, EDT+447.9%+$46.13
Will Red Bull Bragantino win on 2026-03-18?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)17c$10Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 18, 2026, EDT-100%-$10.2
Will CD Riestra win on 2026-03-17?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)33c$21Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 18, 2026, EDT-100%-$20.76
Will CA Newell's Old Boys win on 2026-03-17?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)16c$66Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 18, 2026, EDT-100%-$66.48
Will CSyD Defensa y Justicia win on 2026-03-16?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)35c$26Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 16, 2026, EDT+185.6%+$48.61
Will CA Barracas Central win on 2026-03-16?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)63c$10Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 16, 2026, EDT+58.7%+$5.92
Will São Paulo FC win on 2026-03-15?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)31c$10Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 16, 2026, EDT+217.6%+$22.61
Will CR Vasco da Gama win on 2026-03-15?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)8c$15Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 16, 2026, EDT-100%-$15.14
Will AA Argentinos Juniors win on 2026-03-15?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)31c$10Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 16, 2026, EDT-100%-$10.39
Will Mirassol FC win on 2026-03-15?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)11c$15Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 16, 2026, EDT-100%-$15.3
Will CS Independiente Rivadavia win on 2026-03-15?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)30c$20Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 15, 2026, EDT+236.9%+$48.52
Will Gimnasia y Esgrima de La Plata win on 2026-03-15?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)27c$21Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 15, 2026, EDT-100%-$20.82
Will Atlas FC win on 2026-03-14?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)15c$10Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 15, 2026, EDT-100%-$10.16
All 18 picks, newest first.
NBA Inactivelast resolved Mar 20, 2026, EDT1241.7%5 W · 7 L+0.3wins+0.02per pick40cpaid-10.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
NBA — the 12 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in NBA, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Warriors vs. Pistons: 1H Moneylinebacked Pistons · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)29c$10Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 20, 2026, EDT+246.5%+$25.61
Clippers vs. Pelicansbacked Clippers · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)54c$11Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 20, 2026, EDT-100%-$10.8
Pistons vs. Wizards: 1H Moneylinebacked Pistons · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)73c$23Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 17, 2026, EDT+37.5%+$8.46
Celtics vs. Bucks: O/U 214.5backed Under · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)51c$10Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 3, 2026, EST+96.1%+$9.8
Kings vs. Lakers: O/U 231.5backed Under · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)53c$10Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 2, 2026, EST-100%-$10.07
Pelicans vs. Clippersbacked Pelicans · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)12c$10Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 2, 2026, EST-100%-$10.44
76ers vs. Celticsbacked 76ers · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)17c$10Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 2, 2026, EST-100%-$10.37
Spread: Thunder (-15.5)backed Mavericks · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)48c$10Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 2, 2026, EST+108.3%+$10.92
Pistons vs. Magicbacked Magic · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)35c$11Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 1, 2026, EST-100%-$10.5
Spread: Bucks (-3.5)backed Bulls · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)55c$10Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 1, 2026, EST+81.8%+$8.55
Jazz vs. Rockets: O/U 226.5backed Under · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)48c$11Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 24, 2026, EST-100%-$11.4
Nuggets vs. Warriors: 1H Moneylinebacked Nuggets · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)0c$10Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 22, 2026, EST-100%-$10
All 12 picks, newest first.
Other European Leagues Inactivelast resolved Mar 20, 2026, EDT1020%2 W · 8 L-1.2wins-0.12per pick32cpaid-67.3%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
Other European Leagues — the 10 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Other European Leagues, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will SBV Excelsior win on 2026-03-20?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)38c$11Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 20, 2026, EDT-100%-$10.64
Will Heracles Almelo win on 2026-03-20?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)59c$11Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 20, 2026, EDT-100%-$10.71
Will Fatih Karagümrük SK win on 2026-03-19?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)27c$10Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 19, 2026, EDT-100%-$10.24
Will Kocaelispor win on 2026-03-18?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)22c$15Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 18, 2026, EDT-100%-$15.18
Will Rio Ave FC win on 2026-03-15?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)72c$11Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 15, 2026, EDT+39.4%+$4.24
Will FC Arouca win on 2026-03-14?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)23c$10Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 14, 2026, EDT-100%-$10.24
Will Kilmarnock FC win on 2026-03-14?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)53c$11Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 14, 2026, EDT+88%+$9.36
Will FC Alverca win on 2026-03-14?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)11c$15Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 14, 2026, EDT-100%-$15.27
Will FC Groningen win on 2026-02-22?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)0c$15Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 22, 2026, EST-100%-$15.23
Will Antalyaspor win on 2026-02-22?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)16c$10Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 22, 2026, EST-100%-$10.04
All 10 picks, newest first.
Asian League Inactivelast resolved Mar 21, 2026, EDT911.1%1 W · 8 L-2.3wins-0.25per pick36cpaid-62.3%equal weight43-0.07 edge/pick
Asian League — the 9 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Asian League, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Qingdao Xihaian FC vs. Shenzhen Xinpengcheng FC end in a draw?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)32c$11Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 21, 2026, EDT-100%-$10.55
Will Qingdao Hainiu FC win on 2026-03-20?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)56c$10Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 20, 2026, EDT-100%-$10.17
Will Urawa Red Diamonds win on 2026-03-18?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)30c$15Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 18, 2026, EDT-100%-$15.3
Will Kashiwa Reysol win on 2026-03-18?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)44c$16Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 18, 2026, EDT-100%-$15.96
Will FC Machida Zelvia win on 2026-03-18?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)14c$10Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 18, 2026, EDT-100%-$10.14
Will Avispa Fukuoka win on 2026-03-18?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)31c$16Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 18, 2026, EDT-100%-$15.81
Will Shimizu S-Pulse win on 2026-03-18?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)41c$16Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 18, 2026, EDT-100%-$15.99
Will Sanfrecce Hiroshima win on 2026-03-18?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)48c$16Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 18, 2026, EDT-100%-$15.84
Will Nagoya Grampus win on 2026-03-18?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)29c$10Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 18, 2026, EDT+239.1%+$24.68
All 9 picks, newest first.
Ncaa Basketball Inactivelast resolved Mar 20, 2026, EDT875%6 W · 2 L+1.3wins+0.16per pick59cpaid+29.4%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
Ncaa Basketball — the 8 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Ncaa Basketball, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Texas A&M Aggies vs. Saint Mary's Gaelsbacked Texas A&M Aggies · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)55c$10Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 20, 2026, EDT+82.3%+$8.51
VCU Rams vs. North Carolina Tar Heelsbacked North Carolina Tar Heels · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)62c$10Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 20, 2026, EDT-100%-$10.48
South Florida Bulls vs. Louisville Cardinalsbacked Louisville Cardinals · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)63c$11Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 19, 2026, EDT+57.6%+$6.25
High Point Panthers vs. Wisconsin Badgersbacked High Point Panthers · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)57c$10Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 19, 2026, EDT+77%+$7.76
TCU Horned Frogs vs. Ohio State Buckeyesbacked Ohio State Buckeyes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)58c$10Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 19, 2026, EDT-100%-$10.44
Lehigh Mountain Hawks vs. Prairie View A&M Panthersbacked Prairie View A&M Panthers · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)51c$21Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 18, 2026, EDT+94.3%+$19.43
North Carolina State Wolfpack vs. Texas Longhornsbacked Texas Longhorns · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)64c$21Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 18, 2026, EDT+57%+$11.88
Connecticut Huskies vs. St. John's Red Stormbacked St. John's Red Storm · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)60c$11Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 15, 2026, EDT+67.2%+$7.26
All 8 picks, newest first.
MLB Inactivelast resolved Mar 21, 2026, EDT850%4 W · 4 L-0.5wins-0.07per pick57cpaid-9.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
MLB — the 8 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in MLB, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

NHL Inactivelast resolved Mar 18, 2026, EDT728.6%2 W · 5 L-0.4wins-0.06per pick34cpaid-39.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
NHL — the 7 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in NHL, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Mls Inactivelast resolved Mar 16, 2026, EDT580%4 W · 1 L+2.1wins+0.42per pick38cpaid+121.1%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
Mls — the 5 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Mls, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Premier League Inactivelast resolved Mar 16, 2026, EDT520%1 W · 4 L-0.7wins-0.14per pick34cpaid-56%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
Premier League — the 5 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Premier League, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

La Liga Inactivelast resolved Mar 14, 2026, EDT366.7%2 W · 1 L+1.1wins+0.37per pick30cpaid+83%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
La Liga — the 3 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in La Liga, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Serie A Inactivelast resolved Mar 22, 2026, EDT366.7%2 W · 1 L+1.0wins+0.33per pick34cpaid+77.2%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
Serie A — the 3 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Serie A, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Australian A League Inactivelast resolved Mar 21, 2026, EDT250%1 W · 1 L+0.2wins+0.09per pick41cpaid+37.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
Australian A League — the 2 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Australian A League, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Brisbane Roar FC win on 2026-03-21?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)46c$15Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 21, 2026, EDT-100%-$15.18
Will Melbourne City FC win on 2026-03-17?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)36c$31Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 17, 2026, EDT+175.2%+$53.48
All 2 picks, newest first.
Movies Inactivelast resolved Mar 16, 2026, EDT250%1 W · 1 L+0.1wins+0.06per pick44cpaid-33.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
Movies — the 2 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Movies, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Bundesliga Inactivelast resolved Mar 20, 2026, EDT20%0 W · 2 L-0.6wins-0.32per pick32cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
Bundesliga — the 2 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Bundesliga, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will TSG 1899 Hoffenheim win on 2026-03-20?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)29c$10Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 20, 2026, EDT-100%-$10.44
Will RB Leipzig win on 2026-03-15?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)35c$16Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 15, 2026, EDT-100%-$15.88
All 2 picks, newest first.
Ligue 1 Inactivelast resolved Mar 20, 2026, EDT10%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.07per pick7cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
Ligue 1 — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Ligue 1, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Angers SCO win on 2026-03-20?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)7c$10Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 20, 2026, EDT-100%-$10.08
All 1 picks, newest first.

vs expected is how many more (or fewer) Picks this wallet won than the prices it paid implied it would. It is the column that tells a real edge apart from a record bought by backing favourites. Realizable edge is what that comes to per Pick for somebody copying the wallet, after the cost of getting in behind it. Avg entry is the average price it paid, so a strong record built on heavy favourites shows as one. ROI per pick counts every Pick equally rather than by size, which is how a record earned across many Picks is told apart from one carried by a few large ones. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in — an American night game settles after midnight UTC, so any other zone would name the day after the one it was played on. Inactive means nothing has resolved in that Category recently. The score is kept and the wallet stays reachable here; it only leaves the default leaderboard.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.