Serie A · resolved market
Will ACF Fiorentina win on 2026-03-22?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xdf26560d5fbd97ad5e3a131f095e24576c70963e42a0af8773dc6981a853d426
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Serie Aevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- Polymarket published no figure
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $146,212
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $146,212 — TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 58 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Serie A is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Serie A | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Yes | 9c | 8,855$796 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$796.24 | 2,538 | 45.9%1,164 W · 1,374 L | +13.8wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -12.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xab75…cce0backed Yes | 18c | 6,272$1,129 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,129.04 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 41cpaid | +6.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1eaf…9bf0backed Yes | 18c | 6,108$1,099 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,099.43 | 20 | 40%8 W · 12 L | -2.6wins | -0.13per pick | 53cpaid | -39.8%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xb9e7…0365backed Yes | 18c | 5,755$1,036 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,035.92 | 18 | 72.2%13 W · 5 L | +3.3wins | +0.18per pick | 54cpaid | +21%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x203b…acd1backed Yes | 17c | 3,965$674 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$674.12 | 9 | 11.1%1 W · 8 L | -0.9wins | -0.10per pick | 21cpaid | -76.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7ba9…0516backed Yes | 6c | 3,463$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$199.56 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.12per pick | 12cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Yes | 6c | 3,200$185 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$184.58 | 1,981 | 39.8%788 W · 1,193 L | -7.5wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | -23.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x198f…c419backed Yes | 11c | 3,000$315 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$315 | 83 | 54.2%45 W · 38 L | +6.2wins | +0.07per pick | 47cpaid | +12.2%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xe519…2f48backed Yes | 13c | 2,505$333 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$333.27 | 11 | 36.4%4 W · 7 L | +1.3wins | +0.12per pick | 25cpaid | -12.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x325f…4511backed Yes | 4c | 1,899$68 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$68.09 | 397 | 40.6%161 W · 236 L | -3.1wins | -0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2a69…d2f7backed Yes | 7c | 1,460$106 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$106.05 | 308 | 28.9%89 W · 219 L | -10.4wins | -0.03per pick | 32cpaid | -22.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd6a3…9489backed Yes | 3c | 998.92$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.97 | 346 | 43.4%150 W · 196 L | +0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9cfe…294cbacked Yes | 5c | 998.34$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.92 | 9 | 11.1%1 W · 8 L | -0.3wins | -0.03per pick | 14cpaid | +1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0bcf…75c6backed Yes | 17c | 585.33$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99.51 | 35 | 42.9%15 W · 20 L | +0.8wins | +0.02per pick | 40cpaid | -13.2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6cd2…2f38backed Yes | 19c | 560.12$106 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$106.42 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.4wins | -0.08per pick | 28cpaid | +25%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x797e…fc29backed Yes | 18c | 552.69$99 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99.48 | 11 | 18.2%2 W · 9 L | -0.5wins | -0.04per pick | 23cpaid | +30.5%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0a21…50d3backed Yes | 18c | 497.42$90 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$89.54 | 39 | 61.5%24 W · 15 L | +2.4wins | +0.06per pick | 55cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7cbe…c4b7backed Yes | 18c | 470.1$82 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$82.42 | 48 | 45.8%22 W · 26 L | +4.1wins | +0.08per pick | 37cpaid | +85%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xd0e7…b14fbacked Yes | 18c | 467.57$84 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$84.16 | 91 | 37.4%34 W · 57 L | -3.7wins | -0.04per pick | 41cpaid | -22.4%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5c8f…d581backed Yes | 7c | 399.47$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.6 | 38 | 39.5%15 W · 23 L | +2.2wins | +0.06per pick | 34cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9f73…667dbacked Yes | 26c | 388.74$99 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99.33 | 11 | 45.5%5 W · 6 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -32%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf438…de5dbacked Yes | 13c | 381.07$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.8 | 30 | 16.7%5 W · 25 L | -2.8wins | -0.09per pick | 26cpaid | -28.6%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa8bc…00d7backed Yes | 3c | 363.23$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.99 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0044…cb2cbacked Yes | 4c | 334.19$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.17 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | +1.1wins | +0.12per pick | 21cpaid | +55.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6e71…e8d0backed Yes | 8c | 326.78$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.14 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 36cpaid | -45.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd5ed…13f8backed Yes | 9c | 307.67$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.79 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6ce9…e3e2backed Yes | 18c | 301.34$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.24 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.18per pick | 18cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc049…7cf6backed Yes | 13c | 300.71$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.75 | 10 | 60%6 W · 4 L | +2.2wins | +0.22per pick | 38cpaid | +28.9%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xbb7c…82f2backed Yes | 18c | 276.34$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.74 | 59 | 33.9%20 W · 39 L | +1.0wins | +0.02per pick | 32cpaid | +8.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5bb9…351fbacked Yes | 19c | 261.74$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.73 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | +0.8wins | +0.10per pick | 28cpaid | +55.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3abf…b143backed Yes | 6c | 254.74$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.83 | 232 | 44%102 W · 130 L | -3.0wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x529c…4795backed Yes | 14c | 250.83$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.37 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.7wins | -0.17per pick | 17cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x90df…a209backed Yes | 17c | 233.89$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.49 | 21 | 33.3%7 W · 14 L | -1.5wins | -0.07per pick | 40cpaid | -34.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcd93…31d1backed Yes | 6c | 231.89$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.31 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | -0.3wins | -0.04per pick | 29cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcb5b…f243backed Yes | 9c | 230.03$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.7 | 143 | 47.6%68 W · 75 L | +2.3wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -15%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0d20…f812backed Yes | 14c | 216.27$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.87 | 387 | 39.8%154 W · 233 L | -1.9wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbaa2…1973backed Yes | 14c | 215.35$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.87 | 78 | 37.2%29 W · 49 L | +2.7wins | +0.03per pick | 34cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb31b…edcabacked Yes | 18c | 198.97$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.81 | 49 | 32.7%16 W · 33 L | -5.1wins | -0.10per pick | 43cpaid | -21.4%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x6340…1bd0backed Yes | 9c | 198.9$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.91 | 111 | 27%30 W · 81 L | -4.3wins | -0.04per pick | 31cpaid | -19.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x10ff…ff77backed Yes | 17c | 172.99$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.41 | 32 | 28.1%9 W · 23 L | -1.9wins | -0.06per pick | 34cpaid | -27.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc551…cec1backed Yes | 9c | 166.74$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.96 | 11 | 36.4%4 W · 7 L | +1.3wins | +0.12per pick | 24cpaid | +36.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x13ad…241bbacked No | 80c | 165.63$133 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.13 | 22 | 40.9%9 W · 13 L | +1.2wins | +0.06per pick | 35cpaid | +49%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6fbc…bdfbbacked Yes | 19c | 157.04$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.84 | 28 | 28.6%8 W · 20 L | +0.7wins | +0.02per pick | 26cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0e72…54f0backed Yes | 18c | 138.17$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.87 | 41 | 46.3%19 W · 22 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0673…afabbacked Yes | 8c | 127.68$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.05 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +1.0wins | +0.33per pick | 34cpaid | +77.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x86d0…904ebacked Yes | 9c | 126.11$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.89 | 8 | 12.5%1 W · 7 L | -3.5wins | -0.44per pick | 57cpaid | -74.3%equal weight | 38-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xefde…6505backed Yes | 18c | 122.38$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.03 | 260 | 40%104 W · 156 L | -13.4wins | -0.05per pick | 45cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9b89…99e2backed Yes | 18c | 117.37$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.13 | 195 | 42.6%83 W · 112 L | -10.3wins | -0.05per pick | 48cpaid | -14.6%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2b92…b96bbacked Yes | 18c | 110.54$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.9 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 28cpaid | -24.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdc7c…cfd3backed Yes | 18c | 105.01$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.9 | 24 | 33.3%8 W · 16 L | -1.1wins | -0.05per pick | 38cpaid | -19.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xea74…cf99backed Yes | 17c | 100$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17 | 46 | 50%23 W · 23 L | -1.4wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -13.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf0a8…a0f5backed Yes | 18c | 99.48$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.91 | 14 | 42.9%6 W · 8 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 42cpaid | +9.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x699f…d5c6backed Yes | 19c | 99.46$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.9 | 44 | 47.7%21 W · 23 L | -2.6wins | -0.06per pick | 54cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x40bc…eb4dbacked Yes | 13c | 99.26$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.95 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | 0.0wins | +0.01per pick | 24cpaid | +4.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd454…b47fbacked Yes | 18c | 65.46$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.78 | 15 | 46.7%7 W · 8 L | +1.0wins | +0.06per pick | 40cpaid | +15%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x534c…70f1backed Yes | 18c | 58.15$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.54 | 16 | 37.5%6 W · 10 L | -1.0wins | -0.06per pick | 44cpaid | -33.8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4488…579cbacked Yes | 18c | 57.7$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.39 | 22 | 50%11 W · 11 L | -0.6wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5d9e…e0e3backed Yes | 21c | 57.3$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.03 | 152 | 59.9%91 W · 61 L | +7.0wins | +0.05per pick | 55cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Serie A and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will ACF Fiorentina win on 2026-03-22?this page
- Will ACF Fiorentina vs. FC Internazionale Milano end in a draw?Yes won
- Will FC Internazionale Milano win on 2026-03-22?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.