TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

NBA · resolved market

Nuggets vs. Warriors: 1H Moneyline

Rebuilt .

Winning outcome
Warriorsof Nuggets, Warriors
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$8,141
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$8,562

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $8,141 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 13 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in NBA
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x0673…afabbacked Nuggets0c5,500$10 inLost-$101241.7%5 W · 7 L+0.3wins+0.02per pick40cpaid-10.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x7aa8…56dbbacked Warriors60c795.37$476 inWon+$319.4348956.4%276 W · 213 L+31.3wins+0.06per pick50cpaid+5.5%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x2366…1078backed Nuggets48c457.05$219 inLost-$21956352%293 W · 270 L+22.6wins+0.04per pick48cpaid+8.5%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xfcb1…c109backed Nuggets66c303.03$200 inLost-$2004156.1%23 W · 18 L-0.2wins-0.01per pick57cpaid+4.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe838…b694backed Nuggets16c299.99$48 inLost-$48540%2 W · 3 L+0.5wins+0.10per pick30cpaid+39.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x4a86…d3e0backed Warriors34c199.99$68 inWon+$1323,28549.1%1,613 W · 1,672 L+5.3wins0.00per pick49cpaid-0.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4ce8…63febacked Nuggets54c185.19$100 inLost-$10012543.2%54 W · 71 L+5.0wins+0.04per pick39cpaid+13.4%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xbbf3…aa3abacked Warriors57c175.44$100 inWon+$75.448851.1%45 W · 43 L-3.0wins-0.03per pick55cpaid-7.3%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x507e…beaebacked Nuggets16c127.2$21 inLost-$20.675,05350.9%2,570 W · 2,483 L+110.9wins+0.02per pick49cpaid+2.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x67b1…63ecbacked Nuggets21c57.14$12 inLost-$129334.4%32 W · 61 L-11.4wins-0.12per pick47cpaid-32.8%equal weight39-0.10 edge/pick
0x5e30…acbfbacked Warriors34c35.96$12 inWon+$23.732,75350.7%1,396 W · 1,357 L+47.0wins+0.02per pick49cpaid+3.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x2996…73debacked Nuggets47c31.91$15 inLost-$1513744.5%61 W · 76 L-7.4wins-0.05per pick50cpaid-13.2%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x1ca9…d946backed Nuggets66c30.3$20 inLost-$203748.6%18 W · 19 L-3.8wins-0.10per pick59cpaid-17.4%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 23 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.