TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

NBA · resolved market

Jamal Murray: Points O/U 23.5

Rebuilt .

Winning outcome
Noof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$1,466
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$1,627

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $1,466 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 15 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in NBA
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x339a…1eaebacked No65c299.98$195 inWon+$104.991,75961.7%1,085 W · 674 L+127.5wins+0.07per pick54cpaid+12.7%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0xa717…8919backed No66c295$195 inWon+$100.316361.3%100 W · 63 L+2.8wins+0.02per pick60cpaid+0.5%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xb126…9848backed Yes35c261.8$91 inLost-$90.951717.6%3 W · 14 L-3.1wins-0.18per pick36cpaid-55.4%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x5ea3…466bbacked Yes34c150$51 inLost-$512941.4%12 W · 17 L0.0wins0.00per pick41cpaid-20.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x3bfa…bc94backed No65c127.01$83 inWon+$44.456953.6%37 W · 32 L+2.3wins+0.03per pick50cpaid-3.5%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xa3d7…4084backed Yes35c111.43$39 inLost-$391127.3%3 W · 8 L-1.5wins-0.14per pick41cpaid-41.6%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x696a…e23abacked Yes34c101.14$34 inLost-$34.3917151.5%88 W · 83 L+7.3wins+0.04per pick47cpaid+9.5%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x8d14…1eb4backed Yes53c94.34$50 inLost-$5037352%194 W · 179 L-7.7wins-0.02per pick54cpaid-4.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xb27e…3575backed Yes35c77.14$27 inLost-$272536%9 W · 16 L-1.5wins-0.06per pick42cpaid-14.2%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x6ac5…4b6ebacked No68c73.89$50 inWon+$23.734,68249.6%2,324 W · 2,358 L+27.2wins+0.01per pick49cpaid+0.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x5430…c1d3backed No66c50$33 inWon+$1722774.4%169 W · 58 L+22.5wins+0.10per pick65cpaid+15.5%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0x6793…1869backed Yes32c46.88$15 inLost-$157022.9%16 W · 54 L-14.1wins-0.20per pick43cpaid-50.7%equal weight33-0.15 edge/pick
0xe401…7b88backed Yes46c45.88$21 inLost-$21.15,84446.7%2,728 W · 3,116 L+32.7wins+0.01per pick46cpaid-3.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xa528…2499backed No67c21.91$15 inWon+$7.2983158.1%483 W · 348 L+18.3wins+0.02per pick56cpaid+2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x22a4…63ebbacked No66c15.48$10 inWon+$5.2692058%534 W · 386 L+10.4wins+0.01per pick57cpaid+1.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 23 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.